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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 7 (8%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.3%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (8%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 12 (13.8%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 20 (23%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 8 (9.2%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (6.9%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.4%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.3%)
>$40,000 - 17 (19.5%)
Total Voters: 87

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25639848 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (168 posts by 4 users with 9 merit deleted.)
fillippone
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December 02, 2021, 06:17:21 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), JayJuanGee (1)

Hopium tweet from the new BTC kid:


https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1466469993848217610


I think it, a little bit counterintuitive, as I was inclined to think about LTH (Long Term Holders) as the sharks going to be fed by small fishes (weak hands).
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December 02, 2021, 06:34:15 PM
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SEC just rejected the #Bitcoin ETF application by WisdomTree



Merry Christmas.
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December 02, 2021, 06:42:14 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)


The SEC can go fuck themselves with a rusty pipe
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December 02, 2021, 06:49:17 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

It's kinda funny. I wish there was a decentralized way to buy into the stock market, I don't need a more centralized way to buy into Bitcoin!
Can you imagine buying a stock certificate that doesn't require a centralized broker to store it for you? And it doesn't require annual payments to said broker for said storage? Okay, paper would be annoying, but blockchain technology could completely replace the current stock brokers!

So SEC, if you're reading here (of course you are!): how about you get me a stock market based on private keys? You can forget about the Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin works just fine already.
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December 02, 2021, 06:50:30 PM
Merited by bitcoinPsycho (1)

I feel nothing, TBH.

I'm pessimistic that we're going to be sideways for quite some time, again.

Hope I'm wrong.

Lots of respected analysts saying the bull run is over bro, the top was $69,xxx etc.

I’m fine either way, let’s see what happens. If we moon, I sell more. If we enter a bear market I buy back with a 50% or more discount, no problem.

I dunno man but I have a feeling this was not the top ($69k). I think that if we won't moon in December we will do it in Q1 2022.

So if we speak about possibilities:

$69k was the top - 10%
modest top ~$80k in December - 20%
face-melting top in Q1 2022 - 70%

All numbers and predictions are strictly SOMA. DYOR.  Cool
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December 02, 2021, 06:52:42 PM
Merited by dragonvslinux (1)

I dunno man but I have a feeling this was not the top ($69k).
I'm with this guy:


I think that bitcoin was never stronger from fundamential point of view:
(click for the full post)
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December 02, 2021, 07:01:27 PM


Explanation
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December 02, 2021, 07:03:46 PM
Merited by vapourminer (2), El duderino_ (2), JayJuanGee (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

Kraken Intelligence — Bitcoin Full Node Guide: Securing Self-Sovereignty

Good information/guide on how to setup and use a Bitcoin Full Node (and why would you want to do it).

I haven't done it myself, but I'm tempted. I just hope it doesn't need the constant pampering that Bob tells us a LN node needs...

I downloaded it too, maybe something to do later in the year.

It's not that hard, depending on what you are trying to do or what the requirements are. I am simply running a full node from my daily use workstation. Ideally, you'd run it separately on its own server or instance or VPS or hardware (like some do with Raspberry Pis).

I've quickly skimmed over that document, it's only 33 pages. The first 13 pages are explanations on why and what. The how starts on page 14. And it's basically a step by step like: download, verify, run. with "make sure your hardware and your space" has enough blah blah blah, which isn't that much if you can run it on a Pi, you can run it on any Windows device that has a terabyte or less of space.

Then the last part are other examples of ready to use full nodes and where to buy them, as well as where to download some software specifically for Pis so just run them and you have a full node ready.

And then a couple on Android devices, although I don't know anyone who recommends that when you can run it on a home desktop (or even laptop) and just use a light client on your phone or tablet. I mean, sure, a recent generation Samsung with a 512 GB or 1 TB microSD card will probably work, but I think that's not a good use for a phone.

Some day maybe, in 10 to 20 years, when all our phones and the cheapest $50 phone has terabytes of RAM or something.
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December 02, 2021, 07:09:07 PM

I mean, sure, a recent generation Samsung with a 512 GB or 1 TB microSD card will probably work

A normal microSD card may get hot especially at first sync.
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December 02, 2021, 07:50:40 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Some misunderstandings of my wordings to clarify...

By the way, I heard some interesting discussion recently regarding some of us having almost no way to even come close to being able to acquire similar amounts of BTC that we had accumulated earlier.. so if we had been able to acquire $20k worth of BTC and we end up with 20 BTC, after 4-5 years those same 20BTC now cost more than a $million.. so having had been able to acquire 20 BTC with $20k of capital now costs more than $1 million... Similar is true for some individuals who may have been able to acquire $1million at $1k each, then that would have been 1,000 BTC, which would now cost $56 million to buy those same quantities of BTC... .

Well yes, with the $ price consistently increasing, this is obviously true, but only to a certain extend. Another bear market with a 75-80% downside doesn't mean accumulation is simply based on $ value, there are many who will no doubt be selling high in order to buy back for less.

Don't be getting too excited about some supposed 75% to 80% correction that may or may not happen in the near future.

In other words, you are likely getting ahead of ur lil selfie by focusing on the down before the UP comes first.

Don't worry I'm not getting too excited about the idea of a bear market, as requires a lot of patience, nor focusing on down before UP.
I've been clear about believing in $100K-150K by end of bull market, likely early 2022, rather than end of 2021.
My discussion of the future isn't correlated to any present.

Remember where we are at.

We already had a 6.5x BTC price appreciation that corrected down 56%.. that is no damned small or insignificant BTC price correction, so having that extent of a correction likely causes a decent amount of resetting and causing the $28,600 bottom to be in..

In other words, why the fuck would we be wanting to prematurely focus on bottoms that might happen before we see the top that has not yet come...

Yes, yes, yes.. even I have conceded something like a 42% chance that we go down from here rather than UP.. but seems more likely that our top is not yet in, and even if we had a top from here, then how far are we going down.  Think about it.

On the other hand, if you want to engage in what seems to be premature focusing upon DOWNity, then that's all on you.. hopefully you do not shake too many of the rest of us from significantly and preparing for the UPpity that seems to be a wee bit more likely and even if it is not more likely.. it seems good, prudent and reasonable to prepare for it, just in case.

I think you've completely misunderstood me here. I made it clear previously that I considered a 75-80% drop with a multi-year bear market, only if price goes parabolic with a blow-off top. The usual 80% drop would be based on the usual parabolic top, ie it's conditional of such an event. I've also been clear about a much lesser correction if say $69K were the top, which is far from parabolic, but would simply be a recovery that failed to move much higher. In this sense I completely agree that $28K would therefore likely be the bottom, with the exception of a fake-out lower to trap bears, mirroring $69K trapping bulls.

Hence why I'm much less concerned about the idea of a multi-year bear market if $69K were the top, unlike others in this thread, as I think $30-35K would therefore become the new bottom in a years time, based on the 200 Week MA trajectory for a bottom, that will continue to rise as 2018 candles between $6K-10K get replaced for much candles at a much higher price. This would effectively mean consolidation for a year between $28K-69K for approximately 20 months, which wouldn't be out of the question for an emerging market. For example if price topped out in 2017 at $7.5K or $10K, as opposed to $20K, I still think $3/4K would of ended up being the bottom, ie the 200 Week MA, which would have largely remained unaffected. I also wouldn't have an issue with such a long consolidation period within a close range, probably have to go and get another job in order to simply DCA again, as I imagine shorting the market would be a bit of a nightmare without (m)any crash-like events.

Personally, I plan for the present as well as the future. I always have a plan for the future, that I then implement when if/it comes the present. Not having a plan for the future often leads to making irrational decisions in the present based on emotion, which is what I try and avoid at all costs, as usually it leads to costly mistakes. I otherwise try and plan for every eventually possible, so that my decisions in the present aren't influenced by the present that's usually overloaded with emotional and irrational sentiment, rather than pre-determined decisions I made in the past. And yes, I have taken into consideration every single eventually possible and how I would react to, despite how exhausting that concept might sound to you or anyone else. This is what I've done for years now to remain prepared.

Please don't get confused by me otherwise being prepared for every eventually possible, as I'm well aware 99.9% of those won't occur and only 1 scenario I've accounted for will actually take place.

For me it was also simply based on the theory of gravity and Bitcoin's previous price movements. What goes up must come down, and what goes up with sheer velocity with go down with that same velocity, kind of at least. It is how markets generally work, with Bitcoin not being an exception to that rule either.

Of course bitcoin is not an exception to the overall rule regarding both UPs and DOWNs, but the devil still remains in the details regarding how to manage it in regards to both some of its overall flavors and that it happens to both be a paradigm shifting asset class and that it also is likely in the midst (if not the early stages) of an exponential s-curve... so fucking around within that can get a lot of folks reckt not only in their failure refusal to ongoingly prepare for UP.. including some of their short-term taking of profits was not worth the risk of getting left out of the asset class when it does not return even close to earlier price levels..

Personally I don't think Bitcoin is quite there yet, being worth $1 trillion is peanuts to the idea of a reserve asset, unless you want to make a cheap joke at a party, or a your a rocket scientist wanting to take a shot. For sure I believe this will happen in the future, but I think much more likely around the $5-10T mark it will be taken and treated seriously in this manner, which still wouldn't quite be a $1 milion Bitcoin price either.

You are completely right though, most will simply get rekt or otherwise miss out on a lot of weath preservation, as this is exactly how markets work. The majority lose when trying to trade or be a "smart investor", while the minority succeed. After all, if it was that easy to make money out of this market or others, everyone would be doing it and nobody would have to work for a living.

Especially not now it has become institutionalised.

Still lots of institutions and governments to come... To me, still seems like early stages in the institutional getting in phase.

Yes this is true, it's only the beginning in this sense.

\
My rambling point is there will be many doing the same, taking considerably profits near the top, even if most likely fail to re-invest at lower prices.

Some will take profits at the top, and some won't.  Some will just ride it out.  

I think these days it's more likely that most will ride it out, and some will take profits, unlike in the previous cycles. At least earlier investors much less likely to take profits these days IMO, unless actively trading. Many investors these days are doing so on the basis that Bitcoin could become the dominant global currency and therefore no.1 reserve asset, therefore selling isn't really an option.

People are much more aware of a 10 year history of profit taking being not only very difficult to do, but 95-99% regrettable in the long-term unless the intention is to re-invest, which usually it's not. Most aren't studying this on a daily or weekly basis for years, they have simply done their X/XX amount of hour of due diligence and taking a leap of faith. Which is obviously also a good thing for the price stability for Bitcoin as well. At least these days those I come across invested in Bitcoin aren't evangelists like those in this thread, they are simply taking the advise of them in order to invest money in a smart manner.

They are mainly all waiting for $1 million, which at a $20T+ market value, roughly speaking, wouldn't be the worst time to take profits either - as by that value fiat probably won't exist anymore anyway, it'll simply be considered as spending money. I'm personally of the opinion that there is not much price above $1 million BTC, that's simply when fiat currencies become redundant, as I fail to see how they would compete. You could argue that it will continue to go to $10 million, $100 million, $1 trillion price in a short matter of time, but that's simply because $ will be worth toilet paper and no longer utilized so the gain won't be realised. If will only be comparable to the likes of Gold or the stock market, which I imagine it would still be able to outperform for a while, especially with more stocks & Gold sold for Bitcoin etc.

I guess the gold reserves being liquidated into Bitcoin will maintain it's steady growth, but the general adoption by Western counties of Bitcoin as it's national currency will be a lot more relevant.
Just my theory anyway  Wink

It's kind of like trading with fiat-based shitcoins, but with more volatility and only really possible with low risk in a bull market. So for me it's always about accumulating more Bitcoin for sure, but not simply with $ DCA or lump sums, but also considering market conditions as well as speculating on the latest hot topic for more satoshis.

Hopefully your brain does not start to hurt too much from such distractions.

It does hurt sometimes, but I've never considered hard work to be easy. I take regular breaks, that's the important thing, as otherwise hundreds of charts can literally blind me from reality when I'm "in the zone". Often I'm simply reluctant to pay attention, which has it's ups and downs. At least with good risk management you can simply "ignore" and not have to worry about anything, only loss of income. As I've mentioned it before, I don't do research and fuck around with that nonsense, too many unrelaible variables, I just do it all statistically via risk/reward analysis. Some weeks are busy, other months there's no work to be done and it's already done. Ideally a solid trend in one direction or another limits the amount of labour. Ideally I'd be a good programmer and have a bot do my work for me  Tongue

Next week is important isn’t it. I feel like if we don’t start going up by the end of next week then the bull could be over. I’m prepared either way, obviously heavily leaning to wanting up but there are positives to both. Let’s see what happens.

Whoaza, LFC.

You are really caught up in this calendar year nonsense.

Whatever...

You do you.

I am going to remain skeptical regarding bitcoin having to conform to some kind of a calendar year schedule....

I'm also not tied to the doctrine of the calendar, despite so far not seeing the 4 year cycle broken, and considering it to remain relevant today. Until proven otherwise.

Yeah.. but how strict are you going to be?  There needs to some flexibility in terms of deviating outside of the calendar, no?

This is also because I'm anticipating a top in January/February, definitely not December, given the cycle has generally been 49 months as opposed to 48 months (4 years). One small factor that many have overlooked. A lot can happen in 3 months, as we saw from October-December in 2017 when price increased by 300%. Even a top at $70K in three months wouldn't invalidate the idea of a 4 year cycle for me either, it would only further reinforce it, but likely with much less downside than previous years, if there is a lack of parabolic blow off top.

Why are you even talking about $70k.. it's irrelevant, no?  

No. $70K is exactly $1K higher than $69K, therefore it would be an ATH.

We have already been there done that.  $69k is more or less the same as $70k.. so if you are talking about BIGGER numbers for this year, we need to talk about something significant, no?

In reality I mean any price above $69K as an ATH, within the next 2-3 months being the point here. I don't believe the top has to be significant for the cycle to remain in tact, this is the common confusion here influenced by S2F model / log growth.


Ideas regarding cycles predate the stock to flow model. including ideas of blow-off tops... Yes.. there is likely agreement that cycles can play out in a variety of ways including having potentially less of a blow off top.. but one thing about considering that a blow off top might be possible is to better be prepared for it and there is no reason to believe that the blow off top is dead.

Now we're on the same page. I still see a blow-off top happening, as there's simply no reason not to have one this time as I don't see anything relevantly different, yet.
I'm also not ruling out the idea of that it doesn't happen either, but not having one and $69K being the top is much less of a concern to be honest.

One problem comes with bearwhales holding BTC prices down lower and longer than sustainable which contributes to fuel for subsequent blow off tops to take place... surely by now you can recognize and appreciate that within bitcoin there are likely going to continue to be times in which the price gets carried away in one direction or another. and we have not yet seen those getting carried away periods disappear so there should be no real logic in anticipating that they are over.. merely because of the fact that they could be over.. In other words, they are not over until they are... so therefore it is probably better to continue to prepare for them just in case that they happen rather than presuming that they are over or failing to prepare for them and then they end up happening and catch you off guard.[/quote

Well yes, this I completely agree with and what I've been preaching, being prepared for every eventuality possible, in order to be positioned for every eventuality possible

The cycle is based on time, it has nothing to do with price.

You can believe whatever you want..

It is more likely both.

Ok well price is the variable, time is the constant, to put it differently. It's both, but price doesn't effect time. Time does affect price however.
The only correlation is time has previously determined price's up and down movements, but it hasn't determined precise tops or bottoms so much.
This would moving averages for example, or other metrics, that combines both time & price factors. These I like  Smiley

Even S2F model doesn't attempt to predict a "top price", only a "fair value". Whatever that's supposed to mean...
Actually, I thought another point about the S2F model is that planB had determined that $100k is the median price for this upcoming halvening period.. but it seems to me that if he ends up being wrong and the median price is some other number such as $80k or $90k or $110k or some other number, then his whole model might not be broken but instead the part that attempted to determine the quantity of the next leg up may well have ended up being wrong.. so it does not necessarily negate the whole model even if there might be some need for rethinking of the four year jump quantities.  Such model (or a variation of it) is not going away anymore time soon because it is so co-integrated with facts on the ground so sure maybe some unexpected future facts end up having to get incorporated to cause a shifting of the model but would not likely cause the model to be dead.

The whole floor price model nonsense doesn't negate S2F at all no, as I said previously, reaching that median price even only by 2024 ($80K-100K whatever), would confirm it. Many people seem to think these models are dependant on each other, but this couldn't be further from the truth. The floor model was dependant on S2F, but S2F isn't dependant on the floor model as it were.

What can I say, people are easily confused, hence they often lose a lot of money or value in this market  Tongue

That said I still believe in $100K by 2024 (stock to flow value), as well as logarithmic growth that currently targets around $150K, but otherwise could be $200-250K if in 2023/2024.

Your numbers seem bearish as fuck and seem to want to presume the disappearance of any blow off top before there is much of any logic or evidence for such disappearance of the blow off top beyond your merely asserting it.. but whatever.. you do you.  Hopefully you do not get reckt too badly with such limitations or even such presumptions that bitcoin extremes are going to smooth out... yeah right..  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes  when was the last time that you saw a war without violence and extremes.. let's see how your stable and smooth war plays out and lovely stability lala landia..  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

My targets were minimums, not maximums. I don't see how having an infinite and undetermined possible value of a Bitcoin top is bearish?
I'm starting to learn why so many people do get rekt in this market when misinterpreting analysis to be honest though, no offence.
Many people make the mistake of selling short-term strength as opposed to longer-term weakness, I do not however.

By the way.. if Plan B is asserting that there is an average of $100k during this cycle 2020 to 2024 which means that there is a whole hell of a lot of time to make up in which BTC's prices have to trade above $100k in order to end up averaging $100k.. , and you are asserting that $100k might not get reached until 2024.. which largely seems to presume that our average for this cycle may end up around $50k..  

Again, I'm not. I clearly said by 2024, not until 2024. So for reference sake that could be today, tomorrow, end of year, next year, 2023, or even 2024 itself.
Again, a complete misunderstanding of what I said. I merely explaining what would invalidate Plan B's model - nothing until 2024 at earliest basically.

Furthermore many have been confused by Plan B's floor model it seems (completely misunderstood it), which isn't based on stock to flow, but his own understand of it.

yes.. he seems to be wrong about that floor model, and he really has not given details either.

As they say in the world of math: "I don't care how you got your answer, without the workings out it's useless".

His $98K by November is merely pulling a number out of hat based on his own interpretation of the market, like many speculators have done so. S2F merely anticipates $83K being a fair price for Bitcoin by 2024, or $122K by 2024 depending on which upgraded version you look at. On average, a target of $100K by 2024, NOT 2021. He has also made it clear that price not reaching $98K by the end of the month, which now looks considerably less likely, doesn't mean that his S2F model is invalidated, but that his floor model is broken. They are independent models after all.

I am not really disagreeing with you, and I doubt that there was very much emphasis to his floor model anyhow, even if it ended up largely being true in the end of August, September and October... but falling quite short for the end of November.

Hopefully not, but if some disciples want to panic-sell over it then they are welcome to. The floor model definitely did establish a pattern of being accurate, but alas it didn't last long.

I listen to the S. Livera podcast after my last post, and PlanB is not backing away from his floor model.  He  is tentatively calling November an aberration and believes that we will be on target in December for $135k..  He is saying that it is based on 10 years of data.. . which also seems strange to me in terms of suggesting that such supposed upwards BTC price pressures are that damned high.. so I will believe it when I see it... if I see it.

Plan B is starting to sound like a denialist. He had a model that worked for 10 years of data, good for him. it's useless now though so best to move on. 75% accurate is poor quality. He's basically trying to blame the market as being wrong, as opposed to a model that has clearly failed him. His S2F still works, he should stick to that if you ask me. Or just make another model, ideally.
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December 02, 2021, 08:01:27 PM


Explanation
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December 02, 2021, 08:07:11 PM
Last edit: December 02, 2021, 08:17:48 PM by JayJuanGee

[~ TA mumbo jumbo removed - ie censored out ~  ain't nobody got time for those nattering nabobs of negativism... where's Spiro? ]
Given the amount of fear and uncertainty in the market based on the shorter-term price action, I wouldn't be surprised to see price wick down to re-test $50K, similar how to $40K was re-tested.

And would you be surprised to see a price wick up to $80k to take advantage of the scaredy cats?  

Does not seem convincing to me either way in terms of whether there might be a price wick DOWNity or UPpity.... especially that we have largely been bouncing between about $53k and $61k for slightly more than 2 weeks (while in a bullmarket).. sure with a overall trending DOWNity in the short term, but since when did our lil fiend, aka king daddy care about that kind of technical mumbo-jumbo shit that might last for 2 weeks-ish or perhaps still only about 3 weeks when we are talking about the last ATH?

I don’t know why, there is no TA …

But somewhere in my lower half of my carrying weight I got this feeling which says

Weekendpump on its way….

Only men got this lower hanging weight on one side…

What a riddle, but surely could not have lower odds of coming true than the mumbo jumbo that dragonvslinux just propagated upon us....

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

What, exactly, they are dividing?
Do any of them have the keys to any of this "property"?

Any way they are collaborating so that the court "confirms" that csw is satoshi? He's shown himself to be quite the trickster.

Neither of them have the keys. Faketoshi thinks a Florida court can compel all miners worldwide to transfer to him whatever coins he wants without providing a valid privkey signature. The odds of this actually occurring are less than zero.

The court specifically said it will not be deciding who Satoshi is.

While narcissists usually fail at these levels of justice, they don't accept it, no matter what.
Expect some more bullshit action from this psycho-clown commonly known as CSW.

True. The problem I see is that the justice system is far from competent enough to deal with such issues. At least that's the way I see it. Given enough attempts, there may be a situation when CSW could win a case due to a bad/incompetent judge/jury, and then start a barrage of legal actions to force the application of the ruling, which could put pressure on the Core Devs and other Bitcoin-related entities to comply. We all saw what happened with Cøbra. Of course, such ruling (i.e., the transfer of coins without keys) would be impossible to apply without specific changes to the code, changes which will then need to receive consensus (which they won't), and this could lead to a situation dragging on forever. I suspect that's exactly what CSW may be seeking, i.e., to create a huge mess and satisfy his ego and megalomania in the midst of it all.

Such fuss, when a simple ability (or lack thereof) to sign a message with a specific key could solve all issues and remove all doubt in an instant. It just defies belief as to why everyone still has to put up with CSW's shit.

Justice, in technological manners, is mainly dependent on "experts" in the process. The expertise(s) is/are the foundation for judgements.
Like: Old judge nominates expert X to answer a set of questions that help the juridical process get to decisions.
In this case, questions like: "Can somebody prove to be owner of (below listed) blockchain adresses?", "If yes, what would be a valid proof?".
Next round, old judge will ask CSW if he can deliver a proof of ownership.
CSW will reply: "Yes, of course i can! Here's the proof..."
If the proof CSW delivers to the court and it's not in the form the expert considered to be valid, his ownership claim will get rejected.
In my country, he would then be able to plea against the judgement, the next higher court in the hierarchy would check the trial for correctness. If the revision court doesn't find any errors old judge made, CSW would be rejected, otherwise the trial will be rolled up again, following directions from the revision judge.
There's another escalation level, but that would be like a claim against the nation/law itself (...good luck with that).

EDIT: Of course, on of the main questions of the judge(s) would be if coins can be transferred without keys.

Cobra is a different story. He chose not to defend the case because of reasons, which is like granting CSW's wish (agreeing to his perspective of copyright ownership of the bitcoin whitepaper). IIRC this trial was about that. Claiming "stolen money" from somebody needs a little more solid proof of ownership. Also "mining coins together with mr. Kleiman" doesn't make him co-owner if there's no agreement. Kleiman's "supercomputer" did the work, and even if CSW "lost the keys" (proof of ownership), the court can't decide in his favour if there's no other way to prove ownership. We already know the odds Cool

But if you're stupid, fuck-u-rich or even both, you wanna likely throw a small amount of your wealth at lawyers and courts without giving a fuck.
CSW also profits from being in the news, "making himself a name".

Quote
Amirite?

What angered me in the Cøbra case is that CSW was able to take down the White Paper in the UK site. This is a symbolic move that says "I can do things, I can mess you up". This shouldn't have happened. It sets a precedent. It shouldn't have been possible for it to happen. But it did.

I know the Kleiman case is different, but it only takes a wrongly chosen "expert", or an expert on paper but an incompetent degree holder in reality, coupled with a selfish and incompetent judge who has an inner bias against Bitcoin, to throw things the wrong way and result in a ruling that will open Pandora's box and arm CSW with legal weapons to feed his megalomania and cause chaos.

Of course, things can go the other way too, and CSW can be crushed by a clever judge and a well-prepared legal team. I hope this happens and the cancer that is CSW is eradicated for good.

Surely, there is a bit of playing with fire in the whole chosen way forward, especially when they are knowingly propagating lies through their evidence and those lies can actually be shown to either directly be known/knowable or otherwise very strong inferences can be made to show that they are purposefully propagating lies upon the courts.
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December 02, 2021, 09:05:41 PM
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I don’t know why, there is no TA …

But somewhere in my lower half of my carrying weight I got this feeling which says

Weekendpump on its way….

Only men got this lower hanging weight on one side…

you have a feeling in your prostate gland?

El Dude is going to end up in the hospitales otra vez.

Can you guys feel it?  This is the biggest one ever, I think I have felt. Like a panicky excitement. 

I feel nothing, TBH.

I'm pessimistic that we're going to be sideways for quite some time, again.

Hope I'm wrong.

Yes.. you seem quite likely to be wwwwwwwwwrrrrrrrrrroooooooooonnnnnngggggggg....

again...


Bitcoin no does not do sideways very well...

Especially while in the midst of a war

especially while in the midst of a bull run

especially while being in the midst of continuing to fill top 100 daily weighted BTC prices for two months straight.. absent only a couple of days bouncing out of the top 100.

Haven't we lurnt nuttin over the years?  #nohomo

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Don’t be this guy.


If he were smart (which I am having my doubts that anyone involved in Defi could be very smart), then he would be gambling with less than 10% of his stash.. and if he were at least less dumb, then he would NOT have been gambling with any more than 40% of his stash.. so either he still has 8,100 BTC or he still has 5,400 BTC.

I doubt that he was exercising such prudence.. but hey.. you never know.
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December 02, 2021, 09:08:39 PM

Glad to see you putting your TA cap on  Grin

While the shorter time-frames remain bearish, the mid-term (Daily) remains relatively neutral and longer-term (Weekly) remains fully bullish above all it's MAs.

Given the amount of fear and uncertainty in the market based on the shorter-term price action, I wouldn't be surprised to see price wick down to re-test $50K, similar how to $40K was re-tested.

And would you be surprised to see a price wick up to $80k to take advantage of the scaredy cats?  

Not really no, anything can happen in a bull market. I'm just not going to speculate too hard on such theories without much basis for it, especially when price is under a relevant distribution level for the time being. If price were to quickly spike above $61K, for sure I'd consider that possibility with a much higher probability. Volatility is at relative lows, so there is a good chance of a big move in either direction, but that direction in the short-term favours the bears, even if in the long-term it'd likely favour the bulls. If the volatility began to favour the bulls, then sure I'd give more validity to that probability.

People didn't like my analysis around $64K when I felt a correction (or at minimum sideways trading) was due either, and therefore remained relatively neutral, but hopefully it avoided some FOMO in order to BTFD instead of chasing the rally that was due a correction, even if minor. Neither did others when price corrected to $45K and many misinterpreted the "golden cross" (that wasn't very golden) before price reached $40K.

Many did like my analysis that $40K would hold back then, even if you were highly sceptical, as well others understandably. As long as my analysis isn't popular, I know it's got value. What worries me more than anything is everyone agreeing that my analysis is useful or accurate, then I know that it's likely wrong. There's a good reason after all that I share it  Wink

Has anyone ever told you that patience is a virtue? The inpatient usually get REKT. There's nothing wrong with a healthy price correction in a bull market, rest assured.

Does not seem convincing to me either way in terms of whether there might be a price wick DOWNity or UPpity....

Precisely, you nailed it. It's really not that difficult to identify the indecision in the market right now, from bull traps to bear traps to sideways trading. Classic consolidation below resistance. This is because there is a conflict with short-term bearish pressure and longer-term bullish pressure. This often means down before up, but you can never be sure in these cases.

especially that we have largely been bouncing between about $53k and $61k for slightly more than 2 weeks (while in a bullmarket)..

Again, good analysis here. However the structure of how this is happening is worth paying attention to. This isn't within a parallel channel of consolidation or otherwise a bullish pattern, it's been with lower highs and lower lows, so definitely a time to remain cautious. The lower highs confirms weakness in the price each time it bounces, as do the lower lows. Ie when price goes less and less high each time, it confirms weakness. When price is going down, it's confirming selling pressure. If people would prefer to simply DCA into this dip using a time-based strategy using a blindfold, then for sure I've got no arguments with that idea.

sure with a overall trending DOWNity in the short term, but since when did our lil fiend, aka king daddy care about that kind of technical mumbo-jumbo shit that might last for 2 weeks-ish or perhaps still only about 3 weeks when we are talking about the last ATH?

Bare in mind, king daddy doesn't invest in Bitcoin. King Daddy IS Bitcoin. However, investors of Bitcoin are usually interested if there is 2-3 weeks or downside, or even 2-3 weeks of sideways trading. Human beings are naturally curious beings that like to learn, explore new ideas, theorise on the possibilities of life itself. Bitcoin is a nothing more than a computerized blockchain, it doesn't care.

I don’t know why, there is no TA …

But somewhere in my lower half of my carrying weight I got this feeling which says

Weekendpump on its way….

Only men got this lower hanging weight on one side…

What a riddle, but surely could not have lower odds of coming true than the mumbo jumbo that dragonvslinux just propagated upon us....

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Let's wait and see. At least at think my analysis is more accurate than idea of of 0s and 1s having feelings  Grin

That's something that I think will never truely come to light. Even with AI development etc, I think you forget that Bitcoin is immutable, so even the development of robotics that "theoretically" could artificially generate emotions, doing this with Bitcoin would be near impossible. Remember BCH? That hard fork didn't work either. I doubt a hard fork where Bitcoin starts caring would be successful either!

But I do like the theory of Bitcoin caring and therefore having feelings, it's always interesting to explore different concepts, even if it's only to confirm their irrelevance.
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December 02, 2021, 09:25:48 PM
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Lots of respected analysts saying the bull run is over bro, the top was $69,xxx etc.
Are they rich analysts? If they're poor, I don't even want to consider it Wink

I am not sure if "rich" would be exactly relevant, but I will say that they are nocoiners... and they are NOT likely to be dumb peeps even though they likely spent fewer than 100 hours studying bitcoin, even while they likely have spent a whole hell of a lot of time studying and learning a lot of important things in life including but not limited to various micro/macro economic dynamics, for whatever that might mean to you.  

Overall, they are not dumb peeps.  Part of the reasons that we know that they are not dumb is because they can formulate pretty strong opinions regarding the direction of king daddy without hardly even studying it.  Kind of like a fast learner that knows things and even quite frequently are right about things.. that's how they became analysts with decent track records about varying economic things...and even able to back up their opinions with facts and decent logic..,. can be quite persuasive, too.

Lots of respected analysts saying the bull run is over bro, the top was $69,xxx etc.
Are they rich analysts?

Yes

Exactamente... Rich and smart.  Smarter than a lot of (maybe even most) peeps.. that's how they got to be "analysts."

They also might not realize/appreciate that we are in the midst of the largest wealth transerrening in history... but they can figure that out MOAR later

Guys, just a PSA reminder on how markets work.

This is THE primary month for selloffs. It is customary to sell winners in order to offset losers for tax purposes.

This is a cyclical thing and happens every friggin year.

Please remember this and temper your expectations appropriately.

/end rant

Oh?

We are going down then?

No pumpening impendening?
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November's candle wasn't even bearish anyway, just a -7% body. It looks relatively indecisive with a bull wick as well as a bear wick... just saying.

Largely, I agree with you.

We could almost proclaim that November was largely flat.. especially read in the context of October.

I feel nothing, TBH.

I'm pessimistic that we're going to be sideways for quite some time, again.

Hope I'm wrong.

Lots of respected analysts saying the bull run is over bro, the top was $69,xxx etc.

I’m fine either way, let’s see what happens. If we moon, I sell more. If we enter a bear market I buy back with a 50% or more discount, no problem.

I dunno man but I have a feeling this was not the top ($69k). I think that if we won't moon in December we will do it in Q1 2022.

So if we speak about possibilities:

$69k was the top - 10%
modest top ~$80k in December - 20%
face-melting top in Q1 2022 - 70%

All numbers and predictions are strictly SOMA. DYOR.  Cool

Holy fucking shit, serveria.

You gotta get ur lil selfie a wee bit more realistic than that, no?

If we read $69k as more or less the current price (even though we are really at $57k currently), then you are proclaiming only 10% chance that we do not breach $69k and 90% chance that we do go above it.  I need some of what you are  smokling, even though it is going to likely put me in a bad place and making bad decisions if I actually were to truly believe that there were 90% odds that we are going UPpity from here (or $69k for that matter).

In contrast.. look at my fantasy numbers that attempt to account for both timeline for the top and price level for the top in various different posts, and even at the time that I made those numbers, my odds for no more up (meaning down) were around 42%.. and surely I don't really see any facts that would materially change my  numbers too much... and I thought that I was being overly bullish by maintaining around 47% odds of $100k or higher, but then when I look at your assertion(s), you make me look like a real woose with a puss... no homo.

above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

$800k to $1.5 million  - nearly most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

$650k to $800k  - aggressively bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

$450k to $650k  - Optimistically highly bullish  -   about 7.75% odds

$200k to $450k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 15.5% odds

$100k to $200k  - mediocre bullish -   about 16.5% odds

$80k to $100k  - relatively bearish (not too bullish) -   about 6% odds

$67k to $80k  - the remainder of deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 4.5% odds


down from here ($67k as the top)  - most bearish - but possible  -   about 42.5% odds

If you add up my numbers you will see that I have odds of supra $650k for this cycle at about 7.25%... so maybe odds for supra $550k would not be much more than 10%-ish.

I discuss how I got some of these numbers (surely partly just the best I can do based on what I think to be possible and attempts at fair assignments of odds).

I dunno man but I have a feeling this was not the top ($69k).
I'm with this guy:


I think that bitcoin was never stronger from fundamential point of view:
(click for the full post)

That's a good point (or lack thereof).. pun intended...
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