There's nothing wrong with shaving some profits on the way up, and for sure there can be an insurance rationale behind such shavings - so in fact whether there would have been an "objectively" better way to play it - seems to be somewhat irrelevant because the insurance angle has a bit of intangibility to it... because it is both psychological and financial (but also within the financial angle there is no real easy way to place a price upon the benefit that was gotten from a scenario that may well have ended up not playing out.)...
Maybe it could be said that so many times, we end up paying more from insurance than any benefit that we get because we never get into any car accidents and our house never burns down.. but we would really be a in an insecure position in the event that we did not carry the insurance on those items. perhaps? perhaps?
And therein lies the interesting part of the bet, if you ask me.
You can ask: If xxx BTC is destined to equal xx% of the worlds wealth, then what is it worth to hold, and what to cash out now?
I understand and appreciate that considering those kinds of BIGGER questions regarding where Bitcoin might go in terms of the so many of the world's monetized assets that could end up getting absorbed into it, yet if we look at bitcoin's historical price charts, we should be able to appreciate that it does not even come close to going up in a straight line - and even if BTC may well be up every 4 years (no matter which 4-year period that is considered), it may well not be practical for guys to hang on for 4 years or longer without tapping into some of their bitcoin... and yeah, maybe aspects of my down-side insurance problems are flawed - especially if guys really could structure their finances in very long periods that would exceed several 4-year cycles.
Some of the financial and psychological management may well hinge upon how aggressive any of us may have been in the earlier timelines of our investment into bitcoin. Let's just take my (not only mine) earlier year recommendations that guys should attempt to assess a 1% to 10% range for bitcoin in their BTC investment portfolios, which does retain some presumptions that the investor has some investment maturity in order to have other investments besides bitcoin. By the way, in the past several months, I have tweaked my own recommendation for the initial investment allocations to be considered to be within 1% to 25%. In any event, guys could approach the investment allocation matter whimpily or aggressively, and perhaps the more whimpily the investment into bitcoin ends up having some advantages in terms of allowing for delays in the considerations of whether reallocation (or even shaving off) of profits might end up being advisable and/or prudent.
Guys who invest on the higher ends of the spectrum of 10% historically and 25% in recent times, are likely to be harder pressed regarding how to chose about whether to diversify out of some of the profits (and thus imbalances) of their investment portfolios that had been allocated to bitcoin.. so in the earlier days, a guy with a 10% allocation into bitcoin, is faced with a kind of dilemma when bitcoin might end up going up 10x, 30x or even up to 78x (in the period between late 2015 and late 2017) about whether there might be some value in reallocating back to original authorization levels - which some have called reallocating back to the losers, since the bitcoin ended up way outperforming the other assets that may well have ONLY gone flat during that same period or only increased 10% to 40% during that same period which may well cause the BTC allocation of the investment portfolio to go from 10% to 90% or higher - which may well seem to be too imbalanced.. partially depending on the value of the remaining assets in terms of a guys possible ability to live off of those other assets in the event that the bitcoin portion were to go to zero (or to some very low price).
I suppose that part of my point remains that global world problems and long term BTC bullishness might not necessarily serve as central considerations when there may well be justifications to make sure that one's investment portfolio remains somewhat strong even to prepare for negative possible scenarios in spite of the long term bullish scenarios.... and surely I have been arguing that the extent to which any investor had chosen to take some what aggressive (rather than whimpy) investment stances in regards to his/her BTC investment proportion in earlier days will contribute towards how pressing the reallocation and taking insurance question would play out. I understand also that there could be some biasness contained within some of my framework because I am not even completely attempting to judge the more whimpy investors in the sense that I recognize that financial/psychological circumstances might not even have had allowed for the whimpy investors to take more aggressive stances in their earlier bitcoin investment allocations.
And how does that balance with my geriatric mother, and my struggling sister, and my children, and my wife, and my own desires for extravagance (umm, nil).
Yes.. exactly.. we are making similar points in the end.
And if xxx BTC is destined to equal xx% of the worlds wealth, then how much is it worth to me NOW to lock in some comfort and security for MYSELF rather than provide fir all those folks who did not see it coming.
I don't know cAPSLOCK because I doubt that very many of us are merely investing 20 BTC in 2015 and waiting for BTC to reach $10 million or $20 million, so in that sense, even if we might have taken fairly whimpy stances in 2015 or some earlier date, we might still have ended up reaching quite high levels of BTC accumulation without even had striven to do that. So, if we held BTC and maybe even kept investing in BTC at various points along the way (maybe got lucky too without too many boating accidents or other grave mistakes), we might have gotten to a position where we are able to support some of the others who failed/refused to prepare to the extent that we have any kind of moral obligation in regards to providing such support - but I have my doubts about whether our preparations would have necessarily been aimed at helping anyone beyond ourselves and perhaps our very immediate family.. even though events might cause us to have become (or to become in the future) way more richie than we had ever even expected in our most wildest of dreams.
So, perhaps if some of us might recognize that either we have abilities to prepare for such a future without much of any extra skin off of our back, then maybe it is easy enough to do so.. or if we have already partially or fully recognized that our already preparations are likely going to lead down such a path, then we might feel sufficiently comfortable in terms of letting such course play itself out.. and, both you and I know that having such rosey sights of the future are probabilistic rather than guaranteed.. even though there are pretty damned decent odds that the writing is on the walls and we are likely more correct in our assessment of distribution of wealth matters than the so many currently existing doubters who continue to fail and refuse to even take minimal actions to protect themselves (whether they currently have capacities for such or not).
Sure, you may well have broader aspirations and sympathies than me, yet I do consider that our most immediate imperitive is to make sure that we are individually protected first before figuring out how much we might be ready, willing and able to help others - depending on how far out past the immediate family that we might be ready, willing and able to go in terms of providing help.. and surely there could be some icing on the cake windfall benefits in some of those kinds of better than expected outcomes (at least the outcomes were not guaranteed), too.
THAT... is a VERY PERSONAL DECISION. And one that cannot be rightly judge by any man or woman NOT in YOUR shoes.
Yeah but in some sense, you seem to be attempting to answer some slightly different questions than me in terms of your questions regarding how richie do you want to become or to maintain your wealth in terms of how many obligations that you might have or want to have versus my more narrow questions merely involving how to just manage your portfolio in more narrow terms regarding making sales on the way up can serve as portfolio insurance no matter how loftie your richie status goals might have been historically or what they have evolved into being based on each of our considerations that our vision of the future may well be superior than a very large number of the public as a whole, not necessarily limited to the bitcoin naysayers.
(this is, by extension, the reason we get angry when people come to beg for BTC they could have bought, or mined (or in the case of some lunatics played poker for)).
For sure there can be some questions now or even into the future regarding "when did you find out about bitcoin, and what did you do about it", so we could end up coming to harsher judgements directed towards folks who seem to have had known better and failed/refused to take any kinds of actions - even though retrospectively, we can recognize/appreciate that the level of their necessary actions would have been way easier to have had accomplished at earlier dates.
Poll
