Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitcoinPsycho]

@jjg Exactly my point

By the way, in spite of my own ccccccciiiiiiittttttteeeeee about our current price action of the past few days.. I remain curious about the $46k to $50k price arena.. and just given the overall uncertainties with various macro uncertainties, I am leaning towards needing supra $50k for a day or so before I am really going to feel confidence that the $32,951 bottom of this particular correction is "in" ..

I know that several weeks ago, I had mentioned reaching such confidence that the "bottom is in" by getting above $46k for a day.... yet given current circumstances in the world - and some of the ongoing (yet not always exactly correlated) world events/market performances, I am not even considering $46k to be enough.. even though we have not really been above $46k since the first few days of January.. and we have also not even touched upon $50k for any part of this calendar year.. $48k was our highest in the first few days of January, if there is any symbolism in calendar years, perhaps?

As always your over thinking it.

 

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[ImThour]

Not sure why some people are celebrating this 3% pump today we got.
I think it's a bit early to do, nevermind.

Where is the volume? You want to change a trend without volume.. that's absolutely stupid.
Why volume is important? Smart money/institutions/whales when do buying/selling, it causes huge volume. Do you really think Retail Investors will pump the F out of BTC?

Volume


Also, not sure if many of the people here know that you need to gain 200% up to recover 100% down.
In this example, BTC correction was of 52% from ATH and it needs 108% to reach the same price level.

[bitcoinPsycho]

Negative thoughts have Negative consequences.  If there's one thing I've learnt over the last 10 years is don't listen to negative reality people.  I like to surround myself with positive people and a bucket of sand to put my head in when thing get too much . Working so far

[OROBTC]

Negative thoughts have Negative consequences.  If there's one thing I've learnt over the last 10 years is don't listen to negative reality people.  I like to surround myself with positive people and a bucket of sand to put my head in when thing get too much . Working so far

One of the great secrets of life is that we all have much more control than most people realize over not only our thoughts but also our realities.

[JayJuanGee]

@jjg Exactly my point

By the way, in spite of my own ccccccciiiiiiittttttteeeeee about our current price action of the past few days.. I remain curious about the $46k to $50k price arena.. and just given the overall uncertainties with various macro uncertainties, I am leaning towards needing supra $50k for a day or so before I am really going to feel confidence that the $32,951 bottom of this particular correction is "in" ..

I know that several weeks ago, I had mentioned reaching such confidence that the "bottom is in" by getting above $46k for a day.... yet given current circumstances in the world - and some of the ongoing (yet not always exactly correlated) world events/market performances, I am not even considering $46k to be enough.. even though we have not really been above $46k since the first few days of January.. and we have also not even touched upon $50k for any part of this calendar year.. $48k was our highest in the first few days of January, if there is any symbolism in calendar years, perhaps?

As always your over thinking it.

One man's over thinking is another man's opinion... I am not saying anything much different than I had been saying previously.. just a bit of a tweak regarding what my opinion is in terms of potential weight to give to momentum in these kinds of circumstances.  

Further even if I express various kinds of opinions regarding where we might be, how we got here or where we might be going, these are largely tweaks in probabilities, and surely one of the current questions in the mix remains whether BTC is still in a bull market or has transitioned into a bear market.

Another concern has to do with the applicability of some overarching theories including but not limited to 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects.

There are also guys pumping out their own BTC price models, and frequently I am pretty damned critical of BTC price models that fail/refuse to account for some of the ongoing models (3 mentioned above), yet of course, if good ideas come up that attempt to better explain what might be going on in terms of BTC price performance, I have no problem considering those kinds of matters in the ways that I think about BTC prices.

So then, bitcoinPsycho, what might be the theory that you would like to espouse at this moment in order to NOT overthink the situation in terms of UP, DOWN or sideways?  Have you ever heard of fake outs?  Have you happened to look at almost all markets going up at the moment and BTC happens to be going up slightly more (but surely not more than all of them... and that's short term anyhow, no?  anything can happen in the short-term no?)

You might want to explain whatever zen way that you consider to be a preferable approach for guys like this cat who have already historically approached these kinds of bitcoin discussion matters in ways that you might consider to be difficult to relate to, no?  some guys, always over-thinking when there is a more simple explanation/approach (that has not been explained but just needs to be felt, right?).

Not sure why some people are celebrating this 3% pump today we got.
I think it's a bit early to do, nevermind.

Where is the volume? You want to change a trend without volume.. that's absolutely stupid.
Why volume is important? Smart money/institutions/whales when do buying/selling, it causes huge volume. Do you really think Retail Investors will pump the F out of BTC?

Volume


Also, not sure if many of the people here know that you need to gain 200% up to recover 100% down.
In this example, BTC correction was of 52% from ATH and it needs 108% to reach the same price level.

Look ImThour has a lot of answers, no?

Of course, many of us already recognize/appreciate that ImThour is filled with a lot of DOWNity hopium in his assessments of BTC price dynamics, but still does not necessarily mean that he (ImThour) is wrong regarding a kind of need for BTC prices to get above certain price thresholds in order for there to be some kind of confidence that the bottom may well be in.. and my current thinking (as I already attempted to outline above) happens to be getting above $50k for a day.. and of course, there is a wee bit of a moving target dynamics to any of these kinds of assessments.. at least in terms of needs to account for events as they unfold, even if many of us might have decent senses of long term dynamics, discussion of short-0term dynamics can be all over the place and even more likely to be wrong, even if accounting for a decently large number of the indicators and influential variables/events.

Negative thoughts have Negative consequences.  If there's one thing I've learnt over the last 10 years is don't listen to negative reality people.  I like to surround myself with positive people and a bucket of sand to put my head in when thing get too much . Working so far

I am not sure if striving to maintain positive thoughts is going to cause ongoing and persistent NGU.. especially in the short-term.
 #justsaying.

I do believe that attempting to prepare both financially and psychologically for a variety of scenarios tends to be a good practice, even though each of us make these kinds of preparations in varying ways - hopefully accounting for our own individual factors.. do I need to list those individual factors? at this time?

[Gachapin]

Your lack of spirit is annoying... but that's just me

[serveria.com]

Not sure why some people are celebrating this 3% pump today we got.
I think it's a bit early to do, nevermind.

Where is the volume? You want to change a trend without volume.. that's absolutely stupid.

What if we're still in a bull market which started in 2019? Then bears need volume to break the trend not bulls?   

[shahzadafzal]

Not sure why some people are celebrating this 3% pump today we got.
I think it's a bit early to do, nevermind.

Where is the volume? You want to change a trend without volume.. that's absolutely stupid.

What if we're still in a bull market which started in 2019? Then bears need volume to break the trend not bulls?   

What if we're still in a bull market which started in 2009?

[ivomm]

300mil high leverage shorts on Binance after the pump to 44k. I'm guessing the increase in margin sells is similar. Thus the probability of a short squeeze has increased. This should fuel the pump above the resistance at 44K-45K.

[JayJuanGee]

Not sure why some people are celebrating this 3% pump today we got.
I think it's a bit early to do, nevermind.

Where is the volume? You want to change a trend without volume.. that's absolutely stupid.

What if we're still in a bull market which started in 2019? Then bears need volume to break the trend not bulls?  

Hahahahahaha

Didn't think of that... (speaking for ImThour)

 

Not sure why some people are celebrating this 3% pump today we got.
I think it's a bit early to do, nevermind.

Where is the volume? You want to change a trend without volume.. that's absolutely stupid.

What if we're still in a bull market which started in 2019? Then bears need volume to break the trend not bulls?  

What if we're still in a bull market which started in 2009?

What if.....?  ditto

[Toxic2040]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

300mil high leverage shorts on Binance after the pump to 44k. I'm guessing the increase in margin sells is similar. Thus the probability of a short squeeze has increased. This should fuel the pump above the resistance at 44K-45K.

Hopefully!
I do miss the euphoria of most of 2021. Nothing would make me happier than to explode towards $200,000. I am bearish until the next halving though if I’m honest.

[El duderino_]

[Toxic2040]

the well good morning bulls wall report



dyor


4h


D

stronghands  

[bitcoinPsycho]

@jjg Exactly my point

By the way, in spite of my own ccccccciiiiiiittttttteeeeee about our current price action of the past few days.. I remain curious about the $46k to $50k price arena.. and just given the overall uncertainties with various macro uncertainties, I am leaning towards needing supra $50k for a day or so before I am really going to feel confidence that the $32,951 bottom of this particular correction is "in" ..

I know that several weeks ago, I had mentioned reaching such confidence that the "bottom is in" by getting above $46k for a day.... yet given current circumstances in the world - and some of the ongoing (yet not always exactly correlated) world events/market performances, I am not even considering $46k to be enough.. even though we have not really been above $46k since the first few days of January.. and we have also not even touched upon $50k for any part of this calendar year.. $48k was our highest in the first few days of January, if there is any symbolism in calendar years, perhaps?

As always your over thinking it.

One man's over thinking is another man's opinion... I am not saying anything much different than I had been saying previously.. just a bit of a tweak regarding what my opinion is in terms of potential weight to give to momentum in these kinds of circumstances.  

Further even if I express various kinds of opinions regarding where we might be, how we got here or where we might be going, these are largely tweaks in probabilities, and surely one of the current questions in the mix remains whether BTC is still in a bull market or has transitioned into a bear market.

Another concern has to do with the applicability of some overarching theories including but not limited to 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects.

There are also guys pumping out their own BTC price models, and frequently I am pretty damned critical of BTC price models that fail/refuse to account for some of the ongoing models (3 mentioned above), yet of course, if good ideas come up that attempt to better explain what might be going on in terms of BTC price performance, I have no problem considering those kinds of matters in the ways that I think about BTC prices.

So then, bitcoinPsycho, what might be the theory that you would like to espouse at this moment in order to NOT overthink the situation in terms of UP, DOWN or sideways?  Have you ever heard of fake outs?  Have you happened to look at almost all markets going up at the moment and BTC happens to be going up slightly more (but surely not more than all of them... and that's short term anyhow, no?  anything can happen in the short-term no?)

You might want to explain whatever zen way that you consider to be a preferable approach for guys like this cat who have already historically approached these kinds of bitcoin discussion matters in ways that you might consider to be difficult to relate to, no?  some guys, always over-thinking when there is a more simple explanation/approach (that has not been explained but just needs to be felt, right?).

Not sure why some people are celebrating this 3% pump today we got.
I think it's a bit early to do, nevermind.

Where is the volume? You want to change a trend without volume.. that's absolutely stupid.
Why volume is important? Smart money/institutions/whales when do buying/selling, it causes huge volume. Do you really think Retail Investors will pump the F out of BTC?

Volume


Also, not sure if many of the people here know that you need to gain 200% up to recover 100% down.
In this example, BTC correction was of 52% from ATH and it needs 108% to reach the same price level.

Look ImThour has a lot of answers, no?

Of course, many of us already recognize/appreciate that ImThour is filled with a lot of DOWNity hopium in his assessments of BTC price dynamics, but still does not necessarily mean that he (ImThour) is wrong regarding a kind of need for BTC prices to get above certain price thresholds in order for there to be some kind of confidence that the bottom may well be in.. and my current thinking (as I already attempted to outline above) happens to be getting above $50k for a day.. and of course, there is a wee bit of a moving target dynamics to any of these kinds of assessments.. at least in terms of needs to account for events as they unfold, even if many of us might have decent senses of long term dynamics, discussion of short-0term dynamics can be all over the place and even more likely to be wrong, even if accounting for a decently large number of the indicators and influential variables/events.

Negative thoughts have Negative consequences.  If there's one thing I've learnt over the last 10 years is don't listen to negative reality people.  I like to surround myself with positive people and a bucket of sand to put my head in when thing get too much . Working so far

I am not sure if striving to maintain positive thoughts is going to cause ongoing and persistent NGU.. especially in the short-term.
 #justsaying.

I do believe that attempting to prepare both financially and psychologically for a variety of scenarios tends to be a good practice, even though each of us make these kinds of preparations in varying ways - hopefully accounting for our own individual factors.. do I need to list those individual factors? at this time?

I will not engage in long drawn-out bullshit TA.

It means nothing to me.

I believe I understood bitcoin early enough to see through

all the noise and let's face it there is a lot .

Everyone is an expert these days, I'm not but I'm right so fuck it .

Buy hold reap the rewards

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I will not engage in long drawn-out bullshit TA.

It means nothing to me.

I believe I understood bitcoin early enough to see through

all the noise and let's face it there is a lot .

Everyone is an expert these days, I'm not but I'm right so fuck it .

Buy hold reap the rewards

There are a lot of guys in these parts who have either been following a buy and HODL strategy for years or they learned along the way that buy and HODL tends to work better than trying to play around too much.. there are also guys who do other things such as attempt to buy on the dip, too.

Of course, the situation of every person here is not the same in terms of either how much s/he is able to stack on a regular basis, how close s/he might be to entry-level fuck you status - including getting multiples (or magnitudes) above such entry-level fuck you status and perhaps considering ways to adjust thinking about such place that might not have had been expected to be reached... so for example, if a guy might have considered $1million as entry-level fuck you status before 2020, but then considering that maybe it would be prudent to upwardly adjust the entry-level fuck you status, but then if bitcoin ends up causing him/her to reach 5x, 10x or 20x higher than his/her entry-level fuck you status, then there could be some dilemmas regarding how to manage such windfalls.. and these are not just hypothetical situations because it seems that there are guys/gals in bitcoin who have achieved higher levels of fuck you status that go beyond their entry-level considerations, so yeah, first things first would be getting past a BTC accumulation stage and into a maintenance stage, but also there can be liquidation stages involved too... and I would not even be proclaiming that the stages are absolutes...

And, there are also issues of managing one's BTC holdings in the event that 1-10% allocation might have been authorized in the beginning of BTC accumulation or maybe even 1-25% allocations had been authorized and whether any kind of reallocation might be prudent based on thoughts regarding how much investment is overinvestment and are those assessments based on how much value put in or the appreciation of bitcoin as an asset, and possibly further depending on how sustainable one's financial/psychological situation might be based on the value (or income generation of the non-BTC assets versus the BTC assets). 

There are also some guys that are choosing to say fuck you to other kinds of investments, so not having other kinds of investments and maybe attempting to balance cash flow from BTC and BTC can cause some of its own dynamics, and I am not even saying that it could not be done... even though I am not that much of an advocate towards going all in BTC... so even having 5% to 20% in cash or other assets may well be prudent.. but those kinds of practices will vary based on individual circumstances, too.... and probably the more that anyone ends up allocating to BTC, and not having back up investments, then there can be justifications for creating and maintaining systems of shaving off value along the way... and maybe even guys who have reached magnitudes higher than entry level fuck you status would prefer to NOT be shaving off value at bottoms rather than more prudent ways of attempting to manage such practices.

[Paashaas]

300mil high leverage shorts on Binance after the pump to 44k. I'm guessing the increase in margin sells is similar. Thus the probability of a short squeeze has increased. This should fuel the pump above the resistance at 44K-45K.

Hopefully!
I do miss the euphoria of most of 2021. Nothing would make me happier than to explode towards $200,000. I am bearish until the next halving though if I’m honest.

There's no smoke without fire where there's smoke there's fire.

[sirazimuth]

......
$30,000  "thanx Elon" "thanx  Michael"

$40,000  "thanx Michael" "thanx Elon"

....

Very nice one, merit later and after you switch Elon and Michael position in the rank order

It was Michael around 17k-ish I think who started buying and making it public first

ftfy

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation