Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

and what comes to track record in trading, i think that oda.krell example has quite a lot better record than you do, hes predictions has been very good and to guys out there i strongly suggest that you listen him over pietila

Thanks, but I actually made a lot of bad calls really, and often remain rather vague. One thing is different though: I try to keep some amount skepticism about my own predictions intact. Rpietla on the other hand doesn't seem to know word "self doubt"... Meh. I should really stop paying him any attention, it's just not worth it.

[rpietila]

The official December update is coming at the end of December. My current trendline which is calculated from daily prices until 15.12.2013, shows that we are at $469 now. We have not yet had any daily breaches of the trendline since the latest bubblepop.

Many have wondered, whether the trendline approach was able to cope with the extreme price movements of the 2011 bubble. It is true that during the move up, it was not possible to deduce anything from the trendline, which had just started to form. But during the move down, it called the bottom with almost deadly precision: the trendline was crossed down in 7.10.2011 (note: 4 months after the top) when the price was $4.29. The buy-level, which is -0.2 log units below the trend, was reached 17.10.2011 at $2.85. On a daily level, the bottom was reached 2 days after, at $2.28. At that point we were -0.341 units below the trend.

In 2013 April bubble, the final capitulation played out as follows: trendline was crossed in 3.6.2013 at $119, buy-level of -0.2 was reached in 1.7.2013 at $90, bottom was in 6.7.2013 at $69 at -0.341.

I am sure that -0.341 as the daily average of the most opportune day to buy, months after the bubble, is pure coincidence Nevertheless, it gives confidence to those who do not decide to invest all after a runup, fearing to be left behind. If we expect the final capitulation to come on the red candles' day (14.2.2014), it is still possible to buy back in between $308-$427 if the previous bubbles are any guide.

This is to refute oda.krell who does not base his predictions of "trends" on anything, I at least try. Nobody has shown any proof on any trend other than this, except lines drawn on a whim. I don't understand much, but there is a great difference between founded and unfounded prediction.

It is very easy to buy at your desired level btw. It is called "limit order".

[Parazyd]

and what comes to track record in trading, i think that oda.krell example has quite a lot better record than you do, hes predictions has been very good and to guys out there i strongly suggest that you listen him over pietila

Thanks, but I actually made a lot of bad calls really, and often remain rather vague. One thing is different though: I try to keep some amount skepticism about my own predictions intact. Rpietla on the other hand doesn't seem to know word "self doubt"... Meh. I should really stop paying him any attention, it's just not worth it.

There's always the ignore button

[gandhibt]

and what comes to track record in trading, i think that oda.krell example has quite a lot better record than you do, hes predictions has been very good and to guys out there i strongly suggest that you listen him over pietila

Thanks, but I actually made a lot of bad calls really, and often remain rather vague. One thing is different though: I try to keep some amount skepticism about my own predictions intact. Rpietla on the other hand doesn't seem to know word "self doubt"... Meh. I should really stop paying him any attention, it's just not worth it.

its always good to leave some room for error in trading

[Miz4r]

Instead of quoting and making insults, why don't you just count your BTC and learn from them who have more??  

And fall right into the hands of a manipulator? Why should I trust someone with more BTC than me when they obviously have more power to manipulate and take my money/coins? Personally I actually trust loaded more than I trust you, not because he has more BTC but because he seems more modest and honest in his posts. You however come across as manipulative and extremely narcissistic. No offense btw, your posts have given me a lot of laughs in the past and I don't hate you, but this is how I see it. Best thing to do is to just think for yourselves and don't be a sheep following forum posters who brag about how much BTC they have and how awesome and smart they are.

[Dragonkiller]

Your hate-posts are noise. Wise up and quit posting them.

Quite many want to hear my predictions (or yours), but nobody wants to hear how much you hate me because I am richer for the reason that I have better track record than you in BTC.

I listen to Goat and Loaded because they have more BTC than me. Then some are smarter than me for example Zanglebert, wachtwoord and oakpacific. BitChick is just cute. But the others, no need to reply just to show hate; the time is better spent honing your own excels.

what makes you think you are richer ? do you know me ? or just because I don't brag about it and you have to tell that you are rich every second post of yours makes you think so ? GTFO

you have to write that you're a "multimillionaire" in your signature, and/or come on here and brag everyday. don't you know?

[flynn]

There's always the ignore button ;

I keep forgetting about this feature. Excellent idea.

[TERA]

Wha.... what are you guys talking about?

[ChartBuddy]

[nagnagnag2]

Full blown correction down to below 400 (i.e. sub 400 for daily average, not just a 1 hour dip to 380 or so) seems unlikely right now, given the market's reaction whenever we fell to that point.

he didn't say that.

he did say that if some of loaded clients needs money or forces loaded to sell their bitcoin, in the execs of 10 000 BTC, it will take the price down to $400. That does not mean that the price will stay at $400.

And, as I said, I see little evidence for a trend that takes us to sub 400 and makes us stay there.

I didn't say it will stay there. Nor did rpietila. And it doesn't matter what the trend says if someone decide to dump 10 000 BTC.

[niothor]

Wha.... what are you guys talking about?

We have a crocodile blocking the tracks. No chooo choo today.

[MicroFi]

Meanwhile, while I wait for BTC price to become cheaper, I CANNOT believe I am earning 438% interest on 76k on Bitfinex.

At these rates, I will have to be wiring some additional money there soon. I mean, for 100k I can clear over $1000 in interest. Each day. I will double my money in 3 months, basically risk free. That's insane.  A million would net $300k a month at this rate. Surely these are the highest interests rates in the world.

windjc, to come back to this topic:
As a result of you talking about the interest rates on Bitfinex, I created an account to find out how it works.
I only see loans at about 0.15%/day, though - which doesn't add up to a yearly >400% interest. Am I missing something? Could you enlighten me?

Let's say I can get a daily interest rate of 0.15%:
1.0015^365=1.73 (73% interest)

[mmitech]

for some reason I have been so angry reading some posts from Mirsad and rpietila the past few days, the first for his racism and trashing a whole race (bosnians), BTW I am not even from balkan but I felt so angry when I saw his post I couldn't take it.

rpietila didn't piss me off until he started acting as a jerk you know what I mean " I am so rich" "rich people like me" "listen to who have more than you" " I am a pro trader" " my clients" and he doesn't even post a disclaimer where he states that his predictions shouldn't be taken for a trading plan... many noobs got owned by his "prediction".

 

forgive my tiny tolerance over such people, I do apologize to all members for crossing my lines and going off-topic....

[oakpacific]

The official December update is coming at the end of December. My current trendline which is calculated from daily prices until 15.12.2013, shows that we are at $469 now. We have not yet had any daily breaches of the trendline since the latest bubblepop.

Many have wondered, whether the trendline approach was able to cope with the extreme price movements of the 2011 bubble. It is true that during the move up, it was not possible to deduce anything from the trendline, which had just started to form. But during the move down, it called the bottom with almost deadly precision: the trendline was crossed down in 7.10.2011 (note: 4 months after the top) when the price was $4.29. The buy-level, which is -0.2 log units below the trend, was reached 17.10.2011 at $2.85. On a daily level, the bottom was reached 2 days after, at $2.28. At that point we were -0.341 units below the trend.

In 2013 April bubble, the final capitulation played out as follows: trendline was crossed in 3.6.2013 at $119, buy-level of -0.2 was reached in 1.7.2013 at $90, bottom was in 6.7.2013 at $69 at -0.341.

I am sure that -0.341 as the daily average of the most opportune day to buy, months after the bubble, is pure coincidence Nevertheless, it gives confidence to those who do not decide to invest all after a runup, fearing to be left behind. If we expect the final capitulation to come on the red candles' day (14.2.2014), it is still possible to buy back in between $308-$427 if the previous bubbles are any guide.

This is to refute oda.krell who does not base his predictions of "trends" on anything, I at least try. Nobody has shown any proof on any trend other than this, except lines drawn on a whim. I don't understand much, but there is a great difference between founded and unfounded prediction.

It is very easy to buy at your desired level btw. It is called "limit order".

I know one, but I have no interest sharing it here.

[Dragonkiller]

Meanwhile, while I wait for BTC price to become cheaper, I CANNOT believe I am earning 438% interest on 76k on Bitfinex.

At these rates, I will have to be wiring some additional money there soon. I mean, for 100k I can clear over $1000 in interest. Each day. I will double my money in 3 months, basically risk free. That's insane.  A million would net $300k a month at this rate. Surely these are the highest interests rates in the world.

windjc, to come back to this topic:
As a result of you talking about the interest rates on Bitfinex, I created an account to find out how it works.
I only see loans at about 0.15%/day, though - which doesn't add up to a yearly >400% interest. Am I missing something? Could you enlighten me?

Let's say I can get a daily interest rate of 0.15%:
1.0015^365=1.73 (73% interest)

rates dropped a lot in the last few days

[wachtwoord]

The official December update is coming at the end of December. My current trendline which is calculated from daily prices until 15.12.2013, shows that we are at $469 now. We have not yet had any daily breaches of the trendline since the latest bubblepop.

Many have wondered, whether the trendline approach was able to cope with the extreme price movements of the 2011 bubble. It is true that during the move up, it was not possible to deduce anything from the trendline, which had just started to form. But during the move down, it called the bottom with almost deadly precision: the trendline was crossed down in 7.10.2011 (note: 4 months after the top) when the price was $4.29. The buy-level, which is -0.2 log units below the trend, was reached 17.10.2011 at $2.85. On a daily level, the bottom was reached 2 days after, at $2.28. At that point we were -0.341 units below the trend.

In 2013 April bubble, the final capitulation played out as follows: trendline was crossed in 3.6.2013 at $119, buy-level of -0.2 was reached in 1.7.2013 at $90, bottom was in 6.7.2013 at $69 at -0.341.

I am sure that -0.341 as the daily average of the most opportune day to buy, months after the bubble, is pure coincidence Nevertheless, it gives confidence to those who do not decide to invest all after a runup, fearing to be left behind. If we expect the final capitulation to come on the red candles' day (14.2.2014), it is still possible to buy back in between $308-$427 if the previous bubbles are any guide.

This is to refute oda.krell who does not base his predictions of "trends" on anything, I at least try. Nobody has shown any proof on any trend other than this, except lines drawn on a whim. I don't understand much, but there is a great difference between founded and unfounded prediction.

It is very easy to buy at your desired level btw. It is called "limit order".

Yes you try (which is commendable), and you're likely to be right here >50% of the times as well . Still, I think it's a bad decision because of the combination of the extreme growth rate of Bitcoin and the short term unpredictability of the market. What you need is to for the market to return to the trend line within in a certain time frame. This is also true if you're looking to buy a good growing company cheaply enough: the underlying valuation grows while you wait to buy and the price may stay above this point for a longer time than it takes the valuation of the company to match the original buy price you could have bought at!

Still I would not be advocating buying the stock above the fair value you calculated. Why am I doing this for Bitcoin then? (if we assume the trend line is a valid approach for modelling this). Well, nothing in the world grows so fast as Bitcoin. This causes 2 things. Firstly, the time until the underlying valuation will have reached today's price is relatively short. Meanwhile the market could easily go to $10,000 and stay there for 2 years (then again it could do the same with $100 as well). Secondly there are no alternatives. If you are unable to buy wonderful company A at the price you like, you just move on to wonderful company B. BRK has a long term yearly growth rate of >15% and that's amazing. This is however nothing in comparison with Bitcoin. The potential lost opportunity cost of not investing in Bitcoin today are just too big because of this.

;TLDR Not being in Bitcoin today is too risky.

[MicroFi]

Meanwhile, while I wait for BTC price to become cheaper, I CANNOT believe I am earning 438% interest on 76k on Bitfinex.

At these rates, I will have to be wiring some additional money there soon. I mean, for 100k I can clear over $1000 in interest. Each day. I will double my money in 3 months, basically risk free. That's insane.  A million would net $300k a month at this rate. Surely these are the highest interests rates in the world.

windjc, to come back to this topic:
As a result of you talking about the interest rates on Bitfinex, I created an account to find out how it works.
I only see loans at about 0.15%/day, though - which doesn't add up to a yearly >400% interest. Am I missing something? Could you enlighten me?

Let's say I can get a daily interest rate of 0.15%:
1.0015^365=1.73 (73% interest)

rates dropped a lot in the last few days

Don't get me wrong: 73% interest is still A LOT, but 6 (SIX!) times less than 438%

If there is such a big fluctuation in interest rates, it isn't interesting to put out an "automatic loan" at a fix interest rate and just let your money sit there.
You'll almost have to manually adjust the interest rate every day, based on how volatile the market is.

[Parazyd]

Chartbuddy shit itself... Anyone reported it?

[ShroomsKit]

Instead of quoting and making insults, why don't you just count your BTC and learn from them who have more??  

You're such a pathetic idiot. An extremely mentally ill troll who is full of himself.

[ShroomsKit]

He's right. There's going to be a final capitulation. But not yet. We have to see $900 first.

Ah ok. Thanks. I will be selling everything at 900. You as well i assume?