Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mmitech]

If this consolidation continues for another week until Jan. 6th, bears are going to be treading on REALLY thin ice, imo.

Depends on the timeframe. Personally I expect the final capitulation in Feb +/- 1 month, so one week does not matter much. Perhaps there should be a different thread for people who trade on daily, weekly and monthly timeframe. Or less slander. If March passes without hitting $400, then the chances of seeing it again are slim.

Well my premise is this one. A lot of new fiat will be hitting the exchanges in January. People want to get in NOW given what happened between Jan to Dec of 2013. Especially if the slow trend up continues.

My timeframe is longer. Bitcoin has been around for 5 years, and it has always been a terrific enlightenment for those who have been ripe for it. The knowledge about bitcoin has grown exponentially and investment into it has grown exponentially. I expect this to continue and every year be on average 12 times more glorious (as it has been), until everybody uses bitcoin (which will happen in 2016-17 at this rate). Everything that has happened since 2009 is captured by the trend and its variations, and will be.

There has been some regularities in the growth that I have researched, some of it is published, some not. I believe knowing them gives an edge in trading, and so far it has proven to be good. I have several million dollars of my own money that I could use to purchase bitcoins but choose not to. Not at this price. I am taking a large, calculated risk, with entry points set according to mathematical model for the rest of the year. I even gave the average sell price a few posts ago. Now there is no need to comment that I am doing bad every time the price rises $10. You could as well post about how good I am doing for the reason that I always have more bitcoins than fiat anyway  

So, after smoking the best the world has to offer, I again feel that taking a break from this thread is in order.

See you at $500. And don't fall in the bull trap

you have really to brag about your millions and what you are smoking hahahaahah, man what an ego, maybe you understand some market(silver market?) but you dont understand the network effect and the technology that bitcoin offers, most of your calls were wrong, the calls where were you right was just a lucky call, like most of traders here, you need more luck than anything else.


Bitcoin is the most unpredictable asset, there is no company that you can analyze, there is only early geek adopters and really early techno savy entrepreneurs that crash the market when they decide to cahs some profit, BTW your only advantage "for these many millions" is the time when you knew about Bitcoin. many of us here invested more Fiat than you maybe saw in your life so stop braging about your "millions".... new money this is what is it called  

[bitcoinvest]

If this consolidation continues for another week until Jan. 6th, bears are going to be treading on REALLY thin ice, imo.

Depends on the timeframe. Personally I expect the final capitulation in Feb +/- 1 month, so one week does not matter much. Perhaps there should be a different thread for people who trade on daily, weekly and monthly timeframe. Or less slander. If March passes without hitting $400, then the chances of seeing it again are slim.

Well my premise is this one. A lot of new fiat will be hitting the exchanges in January. People want to get in NOW given what happened between Jan to Dec of 2013. Especially if the slow trend up continues.

My timeframe is longer. Bitcoin has been around for 5 years, and it has always been a terrific enlightenment for those who have been ripe for it. The knowledge about bitcoin has grown exponentially and investment into it has grown exponentially. I expect this to continue and every year be on average 12 times more glorious (as it has been), until everybody uses bitcoin (which will happen in 2016-17 at this rate). Everything that has happened since 2009 is captured by the trend and its variations, and will be.

There has been some regularities in the growth that I have researched, some of it is published, some not. I believe knowing them gives an edge in trading, and so far it has proven to be good. I have several million dollars of my own money that I could use to purchase bitcoins but choose not to. Not at this price. I am taking a large, calculated risk, with entry points set according to mathematical model for the rest of the year. I even gave the average sell price a few posts ago. Now there is no need to comment that I am doing bad every time the price rises $10. You could as well post about how good I am doing for the reason that I always have more bitcoins than fiat anyway  

So, after smoking the best the world has to offer, I again feel that taking a break from this thread is in order.

See you at $500. And don't fall in the bull trap

you have really to brag about your millions and what you are smoking hahahaahah, man what an ego, maybe you understand some market(silver market?) but you dont understand the network effect and the technology that bitcoin offers, most of your calls were wrong, the calls where were you right was just a lucky call, like most of traders here, you need more luck than anything else.


Bitcoin is the most unpredictable asset, there is no company that you can analyze, there is only early geek adopters and really early techno savy entrepreneurs that crash the market when they decide to cahs some profit, BTW your only advantage "for these many millions" is the time when you knew about Bitcoin. many of us here invested more Fiat than you maybe saw in your life so stop braging about your "millions".... new money this is what is it called  

+1

[Erdogan]

bear facepalm

Is this in response to my previous post?  Do you feel I mis-interpretted what you were saying? 

Hehe, no, regard it as a new subtopic.  

[macsga]

Everyone knows my long term and mid term predictions, so it's time to reveal a short-term one: the market looks like it could crash imminently any time now.

Hmmm... I guess that cigar must be from your profit-selling at $800 no? 

[oda.krell]

Already said it a page ago, I'll say it again: don't prematurely investiculate all over the place.

Are we going to bounce off of 830 to 850 again? Not clear at all to me.

Is Bitstamp pulling along, willing to break through 800 this time. Not clear either.

Meh.

You get what I'm saying. Golden mean and shit -- don't be too bearish when things look bleak for a moment, don't shit rainbows when it's looking a bit better

[windjc]

If this consolidation continues for another week until Jan. 6th, bears are going to be treading on REALLY thin ice, imo.

Depends on the timeframe. Personally I expect the final capitulation in Feb +/- 1 month, so one week does not matter much. Perhaps there should be a different thread for people who trade on daily, weekly and monthly timeframe. Or less slander. If March passes without hitting $400, then the chances of seeing it again are slim.

Well my premise is this one. A lot of new fiat will be hitting the exchanges in January. People want to get in NOW given what happened between Jan to Dec of 2013. Especially if the slow trend up continues.

My timeframe is longer. Bitcoin has been around for 5 years, and it has always been a terrific enlightenment for those who have been ripe for it. The knowledge about bitcoin has grown exponentially and investment into it has grown exponentially. I expect this to continue and every year be on average 12 times more glorious (as it has been), until everybody uses bitcoin (which will happen in 2016-17 at this rate). Everything that has happened since 2009 is captured by the trend and its variations, and will be.

There has been some regularities in the growth that I have researched, some of it is published, some not. I believe knowing them gives an edge in trading, and so far it has proven to be good. I have several million dollars of my own money that I could use to purchase bitcoins but choose not to. Not at this price. I am taking a large, calculated risk, with entry points set according to mathematical model for the rest of the year. I even gave the average sell price a few posts ago. Now there is no need to comment that I am doing bad every time the price rises $10. You could as well post about how good I am doing for the reason that I always have more bitcoins than fiat anyway  

So, after smoking the best the world has to offer, I again feel that taking a break from this thread is in order.

See you at $500. And don't fall in the bull trap

RP what I don't get is if you truly truly believe your log charts of 12x growth every year then why even trade? You are risking tens of millions of dollars in order to make a few more tens of millions. Isn't there something more worthwhile of your time. Like maybe starting a foundation or something?

[RAJSALLIN]

I've been reading here a bit and try to follow rpietila since I think he is one of few here that really has the experience and the balls to follow his knowledge. Fwiw I think he's putting to much weight in the logarithmic trend line. I'm not sure if he is basing his bear call on other technicals but if he isn't I think it's a mistake. As of right now I'd say technicals are looking much better then they were before the dip bellow $500. I don't know why I'm posting this. Guess I want to give rpietila some support for his skills but at the same time spank him a bit if he's making this bear call only on the basis of the log trend line.

Discuss.

[GigaCoin]

BAM!

no no plz, no more catcoin references -_- especially not here

[macsga]

I've been reading here a bit and try to follow rpietila since I think he is one of few here that really has the experience and the balls to follow his knowledge. Fwiw I think he's putting to much weight in the logarithmic trend line. I'm not sure if he is basing his bear call on other technicals but if he isn't I think it's a mistake. As of right now I'd say technicals are looking much better then they were before the dip bellow $500. I don't know why I'm posting this. Guess I want to give rpietila some support for his skills but at the same time spank him a bit if he's making this bear call only on the basis of the log trend line.

Discuss.

Risto has RARELY got right with his short term predictions. He's good mid and long term though...

[bassclef]

If this consolidation continues for another week until Jan. 6th, bears are going to be treading on REALLY thin ice, imo.

Depends on the timeframe. Personally I expect the final capitulation in Feb +/- 1 month, so one week does not matter much. Perhaps there should be a different thread for people who trade on daily, weekly and monthly timeframe. Or less slander. If March passes without hitting $400, then the chances of seeing it again are slim.

Well my premise is this one. A lot of new fiat will be hitting the exchanges in January. People want to get in NOW given what happened between Jan to Dec of 2013. Especially if the slow trend up continues.

My timeframe is longer. Bitcoin has been around for 5 years, and it has always been a terrific enlightenment for those who have been ripe for it. The knowledge about bitcoin has grown exponentially and investment into it has grown exponentially. I expect this to continue and every year be on average 12 times more glorious (as it has been), until everybody uses bitcoin (which will happen in 2016-17 at this rate). Everything that has happened since 2009 is captured by the trend and its variations, and will be.

There has been some regularities in the growth that I have researched, some of it is published, some not. I believe knowing them gives an edge in trading, and so far it has proven to be good. I have several million dollars of my own money that I could use to purchase bitcoins but choose not to. Not at this price. I am taking a large, calculated risk, with entry points set according to mathematical model for the rest of the year. I even gave the average sell price a few posts ago. Now there is no need to comment that I am doing bad every time the price rises $10. You could as well post about how good I am doing for the reason that I always have more bitcoins than fiat anyway 

So, after smoking the best the world has to offer, I again feel that taking a break from this thread is in order.

See you at $500. And don't fall in the bull trap

RP what I don't get is if you truly truly believe your log charts of 12x growth every year then why even trade? You are risking tens of millions of dollars in order to make a few more tens of millions. Isn't there something more worthwhile of your time. Like maybe starting a foundation or something?

Because his ego needs feeding. A little humility would suit him.

[mmitech]

I've been reading here a bit and try to follow rpietila since I think he is one of few here that really has the experience and the balls to follow his knowledge. Fwiw I think he's putting to much weight in the logarithmic trend line. I'm not sure if he is basing his bear call on other technicals but if he isn't I think it's a mistake. As of right now I'd say technicals are looking much better then they were before the dip bellow $500. I don't know why I'm posting this. Guess I want to give rpietila some support for his skills but at the same time spank him a bit if he's making this bear call only on the basis of the log trend line.

Discuss.

when I see technical/mathematical/Professional the same words that he uses, I get so happy you make me laugh my ass off   , based on what you make a technical and mathematical calls when dealing with Bitcoin trading ? only noobs falls for his calls, the guy has a good amount of money sitting and waiting to buy back, why he shouldn't troll about a drop/crash ?

such an ego can make you lose all what you made, and god it is epic when he start talking about his "millions" it proves his weak personality, instead of addmiting he fucked up he has to mention how many he have ( when he is out of money he will brag about how big...) hahahahahaha

and noobs lick his balls, good job clap clap clap  

[T.Stuart]

Are we going to bounce off of 830 to 850 again? Not clear at all to me.

Is Bitstamp pulling along, willing to break through 800 this time. Not clear either.

We've got a new week, new money, New Year... let's give it a go!

[BitChick]

I've been reading here a bit and try to follow rpietila since I think he is one of few here that really has the experience and the balls to follow his knowledge. Fwiw I think he's putting to much weight in the logarithmic trend line. I'm not sure if he is basing his bear call on other technicals but if he isn't I think it's a mistake. As of right now I'd say technicals are looking much better then they were before the dip bellow $500. I don't know why I'm posting this. Guess I want to give rpietila some support for his skills but at the same time spank him a bit if he's making this bear call only on the basis of the log trend line.

Discuss.

I have questioned his predictions and found that he has been right most of the time.  I too wonder if there will come a point when the growth will stray from the trend line and never bounce down to the level he expects?  He is in a great position though.  He can just keep the fiat and move on if those lower prices are never reached again.  Some of us, with way less BTC holdings do not necessarily want to risk our BTC holdings for that kind of game though.  To be left with more fiat then BTC when we are trying to get more BTC could be a problem for some of us I believe.  When it gets to the point that we are thinking about cashing out of BTC anyways, that is when it will be wise to play the market a little more.  Just my thoughts.

[spooderman]

Risto says it's gonna drop anytime between January and March. Wow. So prediction. Basically a fancy walsoraj.

My opinion is it will drop suddenly, or go up suddenly, or stay the same. I know this because of teh research.

edit: also, according to my TA, it may go up or down more slowly than I otherwise would predict.

[Peter R]

I've been reading here a bit and try to follow rpietila since I think he is one of few here that really has the experience and the balls to follow his knowledge. Fwiw I think he's putting to much weight in the logarithmic trend line. I'm not sure if he is basing his bear call on other technicals but if he isn't I think it's a mistake. As of right now I'd say technicals are looking much better then they were before the dip bellow $500. I don't know why I'm posting this. Guess I want to give rpietila some support for his skills but at the same time spank him a bit if he's making this bear call only on the basis of the log trend line.

Discuss.

Risto has RARELY got right with his short term predictions. He's good mid and long term though...

We're all fools but eventually one of us will call it just right. And boy to Risto call this last growth-spurt right.  

I think the only thing we can say for sure is that if bitcoin adoption continues to grow, then the price (over the long term) must grow too.  

[justusranvier]

My opinion is it will drop suddenly, or go up suddenly, or stay the same. I know this because of teh research.

Your ideas are intriguing to me and I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter.

[BitChick]

If this consolidation continues for another week until Jan. 6th, bears are going to be treading on REALLY thin ice, imo.

Depends on the timeframe. Personally I expect the final capitulation in Feb +/- 1 month, so one week does not matter much. Perhaps there should be a different thread for people who trade on daily, weekly and monthly timeframe. Or less slander. If March passes without hitting $400, then the chances of seeing it again are slim.

Well my premise is this one. A lot of new fiat will be hitting the exchanges in January. People want to get in NOW given what happened between Jan to Dec of 2013. Especially if the slow trend up continues.

My timeframe is longer. Bitcoin has been around for 5 years, and it has always been a terrific enlightenment for those who have been ripe for it. The knowledge about bitcoin has grown exponentially and investment into it has grown exponentially. I expect this to continue and every year be on average 12 times more glorious (as it has been), until everybody uses bitcoin (which will happen in 2016-17 at this rate). Everything that has happened since 2009 is captured by the trend and its variations, and will be.

There has been some regularities in the growth that I have researched, some of it is published, some not. I believe knowing them gives an edge in trading, and so far it has proven to be good. I have several million dollars of my own money that I could use to purchase bitcoins but choose not to. Not at this price. I am taking a large, calculated risk, with entry points set according to mathematical model for the rest of the year. I even gave the average sell price a few posts ago. Now there is no need to comment that I am doing bad every time the price rises $10. You could as well post about how good I am doing for the reason that I always have more bitcoins than fiat anyway 

So, after smoking the best the world has to offer, I again feel that taking a break from this thread is in order.

See you at $500. And don't fall in the bull trap

RP what I don't get is if you truly truly believe your log charts of 12x growth every year then why even trade? You are risking tens of millions of dollars in order to make a few more tens of millions. Isn't there something more worthwhile of your time. Like maybe starting a foundation or something?

Because his ego needs feeding. A little humility would suit him.

I am not sure it is pride.  He is indeed a multi millionaire.  Most of us here, myself included are not.  He is in a position to use his wealth and BTC holdings to make more profits.  Is it prideful for him to make comments about what he is doing with his wealth and some of his strategies and what has worked for him?  I think many here are just envious.  I think the humble person will think that perhaps in a year or two, if BTC continues the growth that we are on, could be in a situation in which we have great wealth too.  We could come on the boards and share what knowledge we have gained and the "cigars" we are enjoying and everyone will rise up against us too.  Perhaps staying quiet and being more subtle, like Loaded or a few other big holders, is wise in that there is less angst against them, but Risto is just sharing his knowlege and experience and even his success with us and I personally really appreciate it.

[aminorex]

BTC price has tracked difficultly fairly well.  Cointerra hardware will be hitting the streets in January, about 2 peta hash worth in the first drop, another 2 peta hash near the end of the month.  On this basis I expect a 40% appreciation during January.

[spooderman]

My opinion is it will drop suddenly, or go up suddenly, or stay the same. I know this because of teh research.

Your ideas are intriguing to me and I'd like to subscribe to your newsletter.

Taek adventaeg of wethre bticion geos up or duwn in valyou, i oferr loveraged trooding. (Just messing, I actually liek adam )

[oda.krell]

I've been reading here a bit and try to follow rpietila since I think he is one of few here that really has the experience and the balls to follow his knowledge. Fwiw I think he's putting to much weight in the logarithmic trend line. I'm not sure if he is basing his bear call on other technicals but if he isn't I think it's a mistake. As of right now I'd say technicals are looking much better then they were before the dip bellow $500. I don't know why I'm posting this. Guess I want to give rpietila some support for his skills but at the same time spank him a bit if he's making this bear call only on the basis of the log trend line.

Discuss.

I've said something very similar yesterday, and before that as well (okay, I said it with more snark, but that's because I prefer to act dickish myself when corresponding with people that act dickish).

A log trend line (more precisely: linear regression on log charted price history) is a nice little tool to get a feeling for where we are at any point in time compared to the historic trend, and where we're going to be, very very roughly, in a few months or a year from now.

It is very much not a method to conclude that, right now, we have to go down another 33% to match the trendline, or that price has to rise by 2.575% to fulfill our yearly growth quota.

Add to that the bragging and the unjustified arrogance, together with a big dollop of exaggeration ("several millions"), and I'm suddenly much less forgiving towards his TA failures than I am with anyone else's.