Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[seldon]

1800 in 14 business days 

would be nice to see some ath again.. you get bored of them so quick but miss them when they're gone so fast

[1714684694]

1714684694

[1714684694]

1714684694

[1714684694]

1714684694

[JorgeStolfi]

1800 in 14 business days 

USD or CNY?

[adamstgBit]

1800 in 14 business days  

USD or CNY?

hmmm

EUR!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dgarcia]

I'm bored!

Where's Walsoraj?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Erdogan]

Bad news and good news are floating around. It seems the market only focuses on the bad news, and ignore the good news. What the market should do, in my opinion, is to focus on the good news, and ignore the bad news.

The bad news aren't really bad, it is expected and unavoidable reactions from governments, they can only slow down bitcoin slightly.

[fotosonics]

I'm bored!

Where's Walsoraj?

http://www.grapheine.com/bombaytv/index.php?lang=en

I suggest we start making movies using each other's names.

Here's one I made using Goat: http://www.grapheine.com/bombaytv/pub-en-71c90a4e81a570bf736a0e3d69d601f9.html

And another using proudhon: http://www.grapheine.com/bombaytv/webdesign-en-b01792ed4e58814429d58c8a842e2f0b.html

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


  EXCHANGE     !  01/15 !  01/16 !  01/17 ! 01/18 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp     |  12.27 |   8.22 |  17.11 |  5.49 | USD
  BTC-e        |   9.79 |   7.22 |  12.82 |  7.22 | USD
  MtGOX        |   7.54 |   5.91 |  12.23 |  6.20 | USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, JPY
  BitFinEx     |   7.17 |   3.68 |  11.47 |  3.81 | USD
  Kraken       |   0.35 |   0.29 |   0.68 |  0.28 | EUR
  Bitcoin.DE   |   0.51 |   0.38 |   0.61 |  0.27 | EUR
  CaVirtEx     |   0.45 |   0.26 |   0.31 |  0.01 | CAD
  CampBX       |   0.16 |   0.12 |   0.16 |  0.04 | USD
  Crypto-Trade |    .   |   0.01 |   0.01 |   .   | USD

  SUBTOTAL     |  38.24 |  26.09 |  55.40 | 23.32 |

  Huobi        |  91.40 |  67.37 |  74.21 | 43.60 | CNY
  OKCoin       |  22.24 |  24.82 |  32.28 | 25.31 | CNY
  BTC-China    |   5.58 |   3.54 |   4.55 |  1.77 | CNY

  SUBTOTAL     | 119.22 |  95.73 | 111.04 | 70.68 |

  TOTAL        | 157.46 | 121.82 | 166.44 | 94.00 |



All numbers were collected by hand from the sites http://bitcoinwisdom.com and http://bitcoincharts.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column.  They do not include trade between BTC and other cryptocoins such as LiteCoin.

The MtGOX volume now includes (retroactively), besides the trades to/from USD, also to/from GBP, AUD (both relatively small), EUR, and JPY (around 1 kBTC each).  The JPY volume was obtained from bitcoincharts.com.

The Coinbase volume is not available at Bitcoinwisdom.

Dates on the header line have been corrected so that now they are UTC rather than Brazilian local time (which is what Bitcoinwisdom uses). Specifically, "01/15" now means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". On previous posts the same column was labeled "01/14" meaning "01/14 22:00:00 to 01/15 21:59:59 BRST".

[JorgeStolfi]

As other have noted, Saturday 01/18 UTC was a slow day: volume down ~35% China, ~50% outside China.

On that day China apparently got ~75% of all the BTC trade volume. BTC-China's share share of it is small and dwindling.

[dgarcia]

BTC-China's share share of it is small and dwindling.

Maybe the (real) Huobi-Volume is the same 

[Hypnoise]

Bad news and good news are floating around. It seems the market only focuses on the bad news, and ignore the good news. What the market should do, in my opinion, is to focus on the good news, and ignore the bad news.

The bad news aren't really bad, it is expected and unavoidable reactions from governments, they can only slow down bitcoin slightly.

It is oscillating (no trend) market, hardly any news bad or good, plays any significant role. Perhaps somebody want to buy as much bitcoins as possibly and interested to keep it oscillating.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[HairyMaclairy]

Bad news and good news are floating around. It seems the market only focuses on the bad news, and ignore the good news. What the market should do, in my opinion, is to focus on the good news, and ignore the bad news.

The bad news aren't really bad, it is expected and unavoidable reactions from governments, they can only slow down bitcoin slightly.

It is oscillating (no trend) market, hardly any news bad or good, plays any significant role. Perhaps somebody want to buy as much bitcoins as possibly and interested to keep it oscillating.

Obviously bitcoin is now stable at its long term price.*













* A day in bitcoin land is long term. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Another random plot:



This plot shows the mean yearly rate of increase for the USD price of 1 BTC at Bitstamp since various past times to the present (specifically, to about jan/17/2014 23:00 UTC).

For example, the graph reads ~1000 around oct/17/2013.  It means that the average price increase from that date to the present is equivalent to 1000-fold (9,990% increase) per year.  More specifically, if we compare the price at that date (138.38 USD) and the price at jan/17/2014 (795.89) and extrapolate that rate of growth to one full year, we would get ~1000 times the starting price -- that is, ~795,000 USD by jan/17/2015.

On the other hand, the graph reads ~0.1 at about nov/30/2013.  It means that between that date and jan/17 the price fell to such an extent (from ~1100 to ~795) that, extrapolated to one year, would give a factor of ~1/10 (a 90% decrease); namely, a prediction of ~79,5 USD/BTC by  jan/17/2015.

If we look instead at the change from ~jan/06 to ~jan/17/2014, we get a factor of ~0.001, that is, a prediction of 0,795 USD/BTC by jan/17/2015

Finally, the graph reads 1 at about nov/24/2013.  It means that the price at that date was the same as it is now, i.e. the rate of (non-)increase since then was 0% per year.

Presently I believe that this sort of analysis is quite useless.  The market does not seem to care for past prices, presumably because experienced traders believe that other experienced traders do not care for them, and so on recursively.  

The graph seems to justify this indifference.  Logically, the price at nov/29 should be more relevant than that of oct/17.  But, depending on the time span considered, the analysis may yield from very positive to very negative predictions.  Which time span is the right one to use?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ShroomsKit]

Another random plot:



This plot shows the mean yearly rate of increase for the USD price of 1 BTC at Bitstamp since various past times to the present (specifically, to about jan/17/2014 23:00 UTC).

For example, the graph reads ~1000 around oct/17/2013.  It means that the average price increase from that date to the present is equivalent to 1000-fold (9,990% increase) per year.  More specifically, if we compare the price at that date (138.38 USD) and the price at jan/17/2014 (795.89) and extrapolate that rate of growth to one full year, we would get ~1000 times the starting price -- that is, ~795,000 USD by jan/17/2015.

On the other hand, the graph reads ~0.1 at about nov/30/2013.  It means that between that date and jan/17 the price fell to such an extent (from ~1100 to ~795) that, extrapolated to one year, would give a factor of ~1/10 (a 90% decrease); namely, a prediction of ~79,5 USD/BTC by  jan/17/2015.

If we look instead at the change from ~jan/06 to ~jan/17/2014, we get a factor of ~0.001, that is, a prediction of 0,795 USD/BTC by jan/17/2015

Finally, the graph reads 1 at about nov/24/2013.  It means that the price at that date was the same as it is now, i.e. the rate of (non-)increase since then was 0% per year.

Presently I believe that this sort of analysis is quite useless.  The market does not seem to care for past prices, presumably because experienced traders believe that other experienced traders do not care for them, and so on recursively.  

The graph seems to justify this indifference.  Logically, the price at nov/29 should be more relevant than that of oct/17.  But, depending on the time span considered, the analysis may yield from very positive to very negative predictions.  Which time span is the right one to use?

None.

[TERA]

Meanwhile...