Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[spooderman]

A fool and their bitcoins are soon parted.

[damiano]

Current market conditions are a bit alarming to me.

A lot of shorts have been closed, but there is plenty now available to short. 

[bitards]

Some interesting news
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-16/euro-area-finance-ministers-talks-with-greece-break-up-on-rift

More interesting news:
http://s11.postimg.org/9120k5m3n/Capture.jpg

Fool me once, shame on you...fool me twice, shame on me....When will people finally realize, that keeping BTC in exchanges is huge risk?

So lets make bitcoin unusable by not ever using exchanges.  It is not like the hackers say they only steal btc that has been sitting there for over a week.  
I guarantee that if you take the amount of transactions that occur on an exchange and compare it to the amount that occur without exchanges, the ratio of transaction to some dickhead stealing your btc or fiat is a lot lower on an exchange.  BTC doesn't blow because of exchanges, it blows monkey cock for other reasons right now.  

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Elwar]

We need BitSquare

[ghandi]

Current market conditions are a bit alarming to me.

A lot of shorts have been closed, but there is plenty now available to short. 

You are always refering to shorts and longs...are there any graphs, which correlate the price with those shorts/longs over time?

[WeltMaster]

Stay tuned folks

are there any graphs, which correlate the price with those shorts/longs over time?

http://www.bfxdata.com/

[damiano]

Stay tuned folks

are there any graphs, which correlate the price with those shorts/longs over time?

http://www.bfxdata.com/

USD swaps are slowly going up as well

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

Current market conditions are a bit alarming to me.

A lot of shorts have been closed, but there is plenty now available to short. 

Using that logic: The employment market is alarming. A lot of people have been hired, but that means more people could lose their jobs.

[damiano]

Current market conditions are a bit alarming to me.

A lot of shorts have been closed, but there is plenty now available to short. 

Using that logic: The employment market is alarming. A lot of people have been hired, but that means more people could lose their jobs.

Im trying to analyze the market from both ends.  What has me worried is the amount of swaps available.  I play the market both short term day trading and long term and long term I don't care.  The short term is what I am cautious about and with what I see it just means ill stay on the sidelines till a move occurs.

[abercrombie]

Current market conditions are a bit alarming to me.

A lot of shorts have been closed, but there is plenty now available to short.  

Using that logic: The employment market is alarming. A lot of people have been hired, but that means more people could lose their jobs.

Probably means that there is less chance of a short squeeze at these low depths.  

And it's more likely that they'll re-load their short positions on any signs of strength.

[ErisDiscordia]

The comparisons to beanie babies and pogs are ridiculous. But if you are going to compare Bitcoin to a useless fad that became collectible you could sort of compare it to baseball cards.  As you know before the early 80's sports cards were produced in a limited quantity and many were destroyed or were lost because the lack of knowledge of future value (like bitcoin). Once popular (during the 80's) the card companies started overproducing "newer and better cards" to keep up with demand from people who saw others make good money off their old collections (like altcoins).  Hoping for a return from the investments card collectors in the 80's would be disappointed...  Point is, if any of the digital currencies has any chance of succeeding it will be Bitcoin due to the time of adoption and somewhat fair distribution due to lack of knowledge of potential value. So if you are bashing Bitcoin for some other shit coin have fun because it will be worthless some day.

A fair enough comparison which nevertheless overlooks one crucial point: the utility of Bitcoin technology is orders of magnitude greater than the utility of baseball cards.

[damiano]

Current market conditions are a bit alarming to me.

A lot of shorts have been closed, but there is plenty now available to short.  

Using that logic: The employment market is alarming. A lot of people have been hired, but that means more people could lose their jobs.

Probably means that there is less chance of a short squeeze at these low depths.  

And it's more likely that they'll re-load their short positions on any signs of strength.

I don't think there is any chance of a short squeeze around these levels at all.  If anything I do agree with what you mentioned about reloading.  If we break up into the 240's-250 thats when we will start to see some action.  

If anything I think longs are being slightly squeezed atm..Some more than others.  Quite a bit of longs opened up at 250+ just 2 days ago, but there have been a few riding this down

[JorgeStolfi]

if you are going to compare Bitcoin to a useless fad that became collectible you could sort of compare it to baseball cards.

A fair enough comparison which nevertheless overlooks one crucial point: the utility of Bitcoin technology is orders of magnitude greater than the utility of baseball cards.

The analogy also fails in another way.  Beanie babies and baseball cards were not fungible, and each "species" had its own sentimental/aesthetic/historical value.  That is what made (and makes) those things suitable collectors items.  Bitcoins, however, are fungible and invisible; if they were to lose their financial value, no one would want to buy them as colectibles.

(Before the first USMS aution, some people speculated that those ~30'000 bitcoins would be worth more than ordinary bitcoins in the future; both for having been "blessed" by the US government, and for their historical value, having been through SilkRoad and its takedown.  But no one mentions that now.  The "collectors overprice" of those bitcoins now must be the same as that of the the dollars that once were in Al Capone's bank account: none at all...)

[gentlemand]

if you are going to compare Bitcoin to a useless fad that became collectible you could sort of compare it to baseball cards.

A fair enough comparison which nevertheless overlooks one crucial point: the utility of Bitcoin technology is orders of magnitude greater than the utility of baseball cards.

The analogy also fails in another way.  Beanie babies and baseball cards were not fungible, and each "species" had its own sentimental/aesthetic/historical value.  That is what made (and makes) those things suitable collectors items.  Bitcoins, however, are fungible and invisible; if they were to lose their financial value, no one would want to buy them as colectibles.

(Before the first USMS aution, some people speculated that those ~30'000 bitcoins would be worth more than ordinary bitcoins in the future; both for having been "blessed" by the US government, and for their historical value, having been through SilkRoad and its takedown.  But no one mentions that now.  The "collectors overprice" of those bitcoins now must be the same as that of the the dollars that once were in Al Capone's bank account: none at all...)

+1

I don't think anyone ever took that idea seriously.

me - 'Hey, I fancy some alpaca socks. Let me get some coins from a guy via localbitcoins.'

him - ''Yep. You can have 0.1 BTC for $23. Or I have some Silk Road BTC for $75. It's only been through 15 transactions since but I can definitely trace some dust to the original batch. In fact I insist you have these. It'll make for a much more fun transaction.'

me - 'Fuck off.'

[spooderman]

So...bitcoin is fungible? Great!

[billyjoeallen]

Current market conditions are a bit alarming to me.

A lot of shorts have been closed, but there is plenty now available to short.  

Using that logic: The employment market is alarming. A lot of people have been hired, but that means more people could lose their jobs.

Probably means that there is less chance of a short squeeze at these low depths.  

And it's more likely that they'll re-load their short positions on any signs of strength.

I don't think there is any chance of a short squeeze around these levels at all.  If anything I do agree with what you mentioned about reloading.  If we break up into the 240's-250 thats when we will start to see some action.  

If anything I think longs are being slightly squeezed atm..Some more than others.  Quite a bit of longs opened up at 250+ just 2 days ago, but there have been a few riding this down

The crash down to $166 was caused by longs getting cascading margin calls. I strongly doubt it would happen again so soon. Yes, some of us longs are being slightly squeezed, but in my case it would have to be a squeeze well into double digits to force a margin call and even then I have the ability to post extra margin.

I'm not one of those longs, still showing a paper profit, but I easily could be soon. I just don't think there are enough coins for sale at this level to keep us here for long. As always, time will tell.

[ChartBuddy]

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[pimpjuice]

baseball cards/btc
I was just talking shit about the metaphors people use to contend Bitcoin is a fad and something better will replace it.  I don't think Bitcoin is anything like baseball cards   but was using it to explain the reason most altcoins will fail as an investment.