Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

220$ at wednesday.

http://images.rapgenius.com/a0fw7gppl3vf89k4ncfuoj34d.552x464x1.jpg[/img]

+1

In the past month, BTC prices have been having difficulties sustaining any amounts below $240 for any significant and/or meaningful periods of time, so I am having a few difficulties to reasonably conclude that within the next week or so, absent some extraordinary news or FUD, that BTC prices would be going to go below $240 for an meaningful period of time.


In other words, projections of prices at $220, seem to be pure pie in the sky speculative thinking.

[Assad]

I want 260 back

[noobtrader]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/bitcoin-could-get-fresh-boost-from-investor-involvement/story-fnay3ubk-1227292959446


another good news in bitcoin world... which mean imminent bad dump is imminent.    

maybe under 250 in 24 hours ? tarmi ?

[lyth0s]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/bitcoin-could-get-fresh-boost-from-investor-involvement/story-fnay3ubk-1227292959446


another good news in bitcoin world... which mean imminent bad dump is imminent.    

maybe under 250 in 24 hours ? tarmi ?

That requires a subscription. Do you have a quick summary?

[noobtrader]

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/bitcoin-could-get-fresh-boost-from-investor-involvement/story-fnay3ubk-1227292959446


another good news in bitcoin world... which mean imminent bad dump is imminent.    

maybe under 250 in 24 hours ? tarmi ?

That requires a subscription. Do you have a quick summary?

Some of the US’s biggest proprietary traders and investors are testing the waters for a bigger move into bitcoin, giving a potential boost to the fledgling virtual-currency industry.

While still cautious of becoming exposed to “cryptocurrencies,” some of the firms, which trade with their own money on their own behalf, say they see potential for big profits in trading bitcoin as more investors enter the market and financial-services firms use the currency to streamline transactions.

Their involvement could help reduce volatility in the market for bitcoin, which has struggled to gain legitimacy in part because of concerns about wild swings in its price.

Among the companies at the forefront of this move is DRW Holdings, a high-frequency trading firm in Chicago founded by former options-pit trader Donald Wilson in 1992. DRW is a founding investor in a new bitcoin financial-services firm called Digital Asset Holdings that launched last month. Cumberland Mining & Materials LLC, a DRW subsidiary, has “begun to experiment with cryptocurrency trading,” DRW said.

[Fatman3001]

I start feeling that I care less and less about the daily changes in bitcoin price... I feel as though it won't matter in two years, because my coins (well, my 1/6th of a coin) will be worth at least twice what I bought them at ($280-ish). Now, I'm watching the market with not a care in the world. I feel a bit liberated. Time will tell if I'm wrong.

That's because we know now that there is a bottom to the price other than zero.

[Xiaoxiao]

The bearwhale is close to waking up!!!!

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

There are many BIT shares out there (worth about 97'000 BTC)  that have been held for more than 12 months. Many of them (worth about 35'000 BTC) were bought before ~2013-11-06 when the price was less than today's.

As others have noted, their owners must receive some sort of certificates or access codes before they can sell them.  I have read somewhere that the codes are being sent by USPS, but that may have been a guess or joke. 

The shares can be sold only to registered brokers, and the trades may be eventually recorded in the OTCQX list, under the symbol GBTC.  I don't know the details of that process -- whether all trades will be shown, or only those that go through the "level 2" brokers listed on that page, or what.

I would be surprised if none of those old investors will want to sell.  In the GBTC filing they say that some investors did redeem their shares when it was possible, before last October when they suspended redemptions.  (Their current holdings, 138'000 BTC, is the net amount, investments minus redemptions.)  The big question is how many people will want to buy them.

[Fatman3001]

The bearwhale is close to waking up!!!!

Not so sure about that

[AllTheBitz]

I want 260 back

We will back to it but not for a long time , seem bitcoin price dumping every where    any time .

[inca]

I want 260 back

We will back to it but not for a long time , seem bitcoin price dumping every where    any time .

500 coins to 260 on finex.

26600 shorts lol.

Keep shorting retail.

[Xiaoxiao]

I want 260 back

We will back to it but not for a long time , seem bitcoin price dumping every where    any time .

500 coins to 260 on finex.

26600 shorts lol.

Keep shorting retail.

But their are over 26,000,000 in USD longs....

[inca]

I want 260 back

We will back to it but not for a long time , seem bitcoin price dumping every where    any time .

500 coins to 260 on finex.

26600 shorts lol.

Keep shorting retail.

But their are over 26,000,000 in USD longs....

No. 25 million.

Bfxdata.com is useful.

[Shatoshi]

Yeah that data really freaks me out about my short, but I wonder what the ratio of long to shorts is even in a period of decline.

[gkv9]

It feels awesome when trend is actually your friend, I am seeing the lines touched with not much higher margin of breakouts, but they are going according to these lines only, so I think there might be a possibility of $275 back soon...

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[inca]

Yeah that data really freaks me out about my short, but I wonder what the ratio of long to shorts is even in a period of decline.

If you go to bfxdata.com: click btc swaps and choose historic, then scroll down, there is a nice chart showing the btc swaps (shorts) with total number of contracts versus swap interest rate.

The same data can be examined for the long contracts.

You will see that even when bitcoin crashed from near 400 down to 160, even when the world was ending 14 million USD failed to cover. Since then the total value of leveraged longs has drifted up to 25 million USD (ATH was 31 million USD last year). So 11,000,000 USD from that point. Remember you can go long with just BTC on finex, so large holders can easily use their btc holdings for long positions.

In stark contrast the total number of short contracts have oscillated between ~5,000 and 26,954 (ATH) over the last few months. We are currently within 400 btc contracts of being at the all time high (currently 26600).
12,000 contracts have been opened from the recent peak at 300.

Bear case: longs have more money borrowed, higher interest rate on borrowing, bear market not technically finished

Bull case: 160 was high volume washout reversal + bear market is over, shorts at all time highs - mainly retail day traders, little room to manouvre and several thousand shorts have opened in the last few days are already underwater with the price rises. There is a limit to how low the the price can go, bulls wanting to close their positions could have at 160 and are not going to now. Shorts will capitulate if the price moves up another 10-20 dollars with at least 12,000 becoming underwater at 300. A glance on the orderbooks shows what damage even a few thousand shorts closing would do to the ask side, let alone the entire 12k from 300.

Up or down, who knows!

[Xiaoxiao]

Bear whale needs to push this thing to below 100 for some fireworks to happen and more media attention before anything interesting will develop. 

A headline such as "Bitcoin goes from $1200 to below $50 and now back to $400" would bring a lot of attention.