Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kodtycoon]

Where can we see complete orderbook? There has to be something like bitcoinwisdom for that  

55$ now 

thats a pretty insane mark up one regular exchanges.. im surprised its not having any effect on the market.. perhaps over time, more and more btc will be deposited to these ETF's, taking btc away from the open market and locking it away.

[macsga]

Where can we see complete orderbook? There has to be something like bitcoinwisdom for that  

55$ now  

thats a pretty insane mark up one regular exchanges.. im surprised its not having any effect on the market.. perhaps over time, more and more btc will be deposited to these ETF's, taking btc away from the open market and locking it away.

I concur; I find those ETFs as a "next gen" exchanges that will be able to overcome several problems (ie: liquidity, transparency, "shadow" bots, etc). Plus, these businesses are being controlled for their transactions. I wish what you say will eventually be our future.

Bitcoin only has to gain from such a thing.

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

I think to see full details and without the 15 min delay you'll have to pay for access.

This should be an interesting week as this develops, I had hoped this would have been last week but I'd obviously underestimated how long it takes to get shares through the process it takes to put them up with an Ask price.

However consider that BIT is limited to "high net worth" investors and if I was someone with a long term interest in holding say 10,000 already matured shares as a small % over my portfolio I would be tempted to :
1)  Buy 10,000 new shares at the current market rate (1,000 BTC x $235 = $235,000)
2)  Sell 10,000 matured shares at the best GBTC rate I can get (say avg. 10,000 shares x $40 = $400,000)
3)  Bank Profit ($165,000)
4)  Hold the 10,000 new shares for 1 year (again)

This assumes anyone investing has money in the bank they can spend immediately and they don't need to wait to sell their existing shares before they buy new shares.

[dakota neat]

the market is more opaque than ever. now we have two different price finding mechanisms!

i have no idea what to make of it.

[Norway]

I think to see full details and without the 15 min delay you'll have to pay for access.

This should be an interesting week as this develops, I had hoped this would have been last week but I'd obviously underestimated how long it takes to get shares through the process it takes to put them up with an Ask price.

However consider that BIT is limited to "high net worth" investors and if I was someone with a long term interest in holding say 10,000 already matured shares as a small % over my portfolio I would be tempted to :
1)  Buy 10,000 new shares at the current market rate (1,000 BTC x $235 = $235,000)
2)  Sell 10,000 matured shares at the best GBTC rate I can get (say avg. 10,000 shares x $40 = $400,000)
3)  Bank Profit ($165,000)
4)  Hold the 10,000 new shares for 1 year (again)

This assumes anyone investing has money in the bank they can spend immediately and they don't need to wait to sell their existing shares before they buy new shares.

Your last assumption is not necessary. Just switch 1)  and  2)

[luckygenough56]

where is dev 

[Moria843]

Just watched "The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin" free on Amazon Prime.

When does the "The Fall and Fall of Bitcoin" or, the empire striking back, come out

If the price goes back up then maybe we'll get "The Return of the Bitcoin Miner" for all of us who stopped mining because we're losing money.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

I think to see full details and without the 15 min delay you'll have to pay for access.

This should be an interesting week as this develops, I had hoped this would have been last week but I'd obviously underestimated how long it takes to get shares through the process it takes to put them up with an Ask price.

However consider that BIT is limited to "high net worth" investors and if I was someone with a long term interest in holding say 10,000 already matured shares as a small % over my portfolio I would be tempted to :
1)  Buy 10,000 new shares at the current market rate (1,000 BTC x $235 = $235,000)
2)  Sell 10,000 matured shares at the best GBTC rate I can get (say avg. 10,000 shares x $40 = $400,000)
3)  Bank Profit ($165,000)
4)  Hold the 10,000 new shares for 1 year (again)

This assumes anyone investing has money in the bank they can spend immediately and they don't need to wait to sell their existing shares before they buy new shares.

Your last assumption is not necessary. Just switch 1)  and  2)

So sell (2) and they buy (1) using the funds generated ?

Using the traditional fiat system there are delays involved moving money and arranging purchasing new shares which might leave you behind. The above tactic almost guarantees profit if someone buys now as long as GBTC trading stays above $25 (allowing for fees).

Is there any way we can see if BTC are being bought for the BIT fund ?
I'm guessing these won't be in the same address but someone might have done the analysis.
(I'll do a google I think)

[minerpumpkin]

I mean, what's going on with GBTC... $550/BTC? Seriously? How come it's not moon time, already. This only leaves on conclusion in my opinion: Wall Street money just doesn't want to do anything with the current exchanges we have (Coinbase, Finex, Kraken, Stamp,...). They want something "official", secure, insured, whatever. Preferably an investment vehicle they're familiar with... An ETF, you know?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I mean, what's going on with GBTC... $550/BTC? Seriously? How come it's not moon time, already. This only leaves on conclusion in my opinion: Wall Street money just doesn't want to do anything with the current exchanges we have (Coinbase, Finex, Kraken, Stamp,...). They want something "official", secure, insured, whatever. Preferably an investment vehicle they're familiar with... An ETF, you know?

No news on the Winklevoss COIN ETF.
Still dragging their feet.

[arivar]

I think to see full details and without the 15 min delay you'll have to pay for access.

This should be an interesting week as this develops, I had hoped this would have been last week but I'd obviously underestimated how long it takes to get shares through the process it takes to put them up with an Ask price.

However consider that BIT is limited to "high net worth" investors and if I was someone with a long term interest in holding say 10,000 already matured shares as a small % over my portfolio I would be tempted to :
1)  Buy 10,000 new shares at the current market rate (1,000 BTC x $235 = $235,000)
2)  Sell 10,000 matured shares at the best GBTC rate I can get (say avg. 10,000 shares x $40 = $400,000)
3)  Bank Profit ($165,000)
4)  Hold the 10,000 new shares for 1 year (again)

This assumes anyone investing has money in the bank they can spend immediately and they don't need to wait to sell their existing shares before they buy new shares.

How would you do step 2 ? Are you considering that the person in this example is already holding BIT shares for 1 year ?

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

I think to see full details and without the 15 min delay you'll have to pay for access.

This should be an interesting week as this develops, I had hoped this would have been last week but I'd obviously underestimated how long it takes to get shares through the process it takes to put them up with an Ask price.

However consider that BIT is limited to "high net worth" investors and if I was someone with a long term interest in holding say 10,000 already matured shares as a small % over my portfolio I would be tempted to :
1)  Buy 10,000 new shares at the current market rate (1,000 BTC x $235 = $235,000)
2)  Sell 10,000 matured shares at the best GBTC rate I can get (say avg. 10,000 shares x $40 = $400,000)
3)  Bank Profit ($165,000)
4)  Hold the 10,000 new shares for 1 year (again)

This assumes anyone investing has money in the bank they can spend immediately and they don't need to wait to sell their existing shares before they buy new shares.

How would you do step 2 ? Are you considering that the person in this example is already holding BIT shares for 1 year ?

Yes, sorry if that wasn't clear !

This is someone who has 10,000 shares already and wants to continue holding 10,000 shares long term.

[macsga]

Just watched "The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin" free on Amazon Prime.

When does the "The Fall and Fall of Bitcoin" or, the empire striking back, come out

If the price goes back up then maybe we'll get "The Return of the Bitcoin Miner" for all of us who stopped mining because we're losing money.

I perceive BTC mining as a flamboyant idea. This idea incorporates a long promise. You're investing in something that *maybe* will give you back your investment in the future. If you do the (simple) math you will understand that under a certain USD/BTC price, it simply doesn't worth it.

More specifically, under the current circumstances all miners are better off buying BTCs instead of mining for them. The prices are so low that you could get yourself a new BTC every month, with absolutely no gear and no sweat at all. Good luck mining for one with your gear.

As for the mining centralization worries, I think that it will be decentralized but not because big companies are not getting into the game. It will get a decentralization after the next block halving. The price to pay in order to mine for BTCs is unfortunately tied to the Moore's law which is the most significant aspect of the question: "Should I mine for BTCs?".

So, there won't be an "infinite" rise on mining power as there cannot be an "infinite" shrinking to the current IC hardware. So, eventually... decentralization will occur because nobody will spend so much money to get into a game that will deliver "so little", with the only promise that "it will get higher in the future".

Of course, I may be wrong and the price of USD/BTC will hit 10,000 or more so this fires up a totally different scenario. But for now; this is the reality.

[bad trader]

I mean, what's going on with GBTC... $550/BTC? Seriously? How come it's not moon time, already. This only leaves on conclusion in my opinion: Wall Street money just doesn't want to do anything with the current exchanges we have (Coinbase, Finex, Kraken, Stamp,...). They want something "official", secure, insured, whatever. Preferably an investment vehicle they're familiar with... An ETF, you know?

Why do people find this so hard to figure out? Todays GBTC trading volume has been 300 shares. That's roughly 30 bitcoins. Try going to Bitfinex and market buy 30 bitcoins. Does the moon time begin?

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

However consider that BIT is limited to "high net worth" investors and if I was someone with a long term interest in holding who already has 10,000 matured shares as a small % over my portfolio I would be tempted to :

1)  Buy 10,000 new shares at the current market rate (1,000 BTC x $235 = $235,000)
2)  Sell 10,000 matured shares at the best GBTC rate I can get (say avg. 10,000 shares x $40 = $400,000)
3)  Bank Profit ($165,000)
4)  Hold the 10,000 new shares for 1 year (again)

This assumes anyone investing has money in the bank they can spend immediately and they don't need to wait to sell their existing shares before they buy new shares.

Edited for wording

[Norway]

... Using the traditional fiat system there are delays involved moving money and arranging purchasing new shares which might leave you behind. The above tactic almost guarantees profit if someone buys now as long as GBTC trading stays above $25 (allowing for fees) ...

I agree with that. Still, there could be very good arbitrage opportunity for mature GBTC holders 

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

I mean, what's going on with GBTC... $550/BTC? Seriously? How come it's not moon time, already. This only leaves on conclusion in my opinion: Wall Street money just doesn't want to do anything with the current exchanges we have (Coinbase, Finex, Kraken, Stamp,...). They want something "official", secure, insured, whatever. Preferably an investment vehicle they're familiar with... An ETF, you know?

It could also be said that these shares are worth more because as used in someone's pension fund they could be redeemed for $$ tax free.
The maths doesn't work out at this level though and people are financially better off buying BTC directly.
There will be other reasons why these shares are worth more (as you have said) and these will level out eventually.

The GBTC price should drop and the BTC price should rise to meet it but the GBTC shares are likely to always be selling for more than raw BTC.

[TakeTheSkyRoad]

... Using the traditional fiat system there are delays involved moving money and arranging purchasing new shares which might leave you behind. The above tactic almost guarantees profit if someone buys now as long as GBTC trading stays above $25 (allowing for fees) ...

I agree with that. Still, there could be very good arbitrage opportunity for mature GBTC holders 

Agreed..... within a very short window of a week or two

[Norway]

I mean, what's going on with GBTC... $550/BTC? Seriously? How come it's not moon time, already. This only leaves on conclusion in my opinion: Wall Street money just doesn't want to do anything with the current exchanges we have (Coinbase, Finex, Kraken, Stamp,...). They want something "official", secure, insured, whatever. Preferably an investment vehicle they're familiar with... An ETF, you know?

No news on the Winklevoss COIN ETF.
Still dragging their feet.

I don't think the SEC can stall this much longer. Because Nasdaq Stockholm is launching a bitcoin investment vehicle in 13 days.

- No maturity requirements on the bitcoin shares (or notes, as they are called. Its an ETN).
- Instant refill of these notes, means direct demand of bitcoin from the market.
- Bitcoin to create notes can be bought directly in the same country (Sweden) from the exchange Safello.
- The worlds biggest investment funds are allready registered at Nasdaq Stockholm.

I don't think New York or London will let Stockholm become Wall Street 2.0, lol