Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Yes, that's right.  The gox bot is a bit of a myth... to give it so much credit for the rise in the price of BTC in 2013...    

It may have contributed to the rise in the price, but there were plenty of other things going on as well.

The most popular belief is that it was caused by a sudden and mysterious rise of demand in China. They base their assumption on the high volume that BTCChina showed during that time, while ignoring the fact that Chinese exchanges have the habit of faking volume.
The pump upwards was fueled by MtGox and BTCChina's volume was created only as a misdirection. BTCChina volume was only created to explain this sudden rise in demand and to hide the fact that the price is mainly pumped by Karpeles and his non existent money. Karpeles thought that he can pump bitcoin enough to start a rise that would make him back the coins that were lost by the previous hack. It backfired of a simple reason - Karpeles is a terrible trader. He was outplayed even by the majority, so his losses got even bigger in both coin and fiat. Most of the smart traders just profited from this pump and got out at the right time. Only the inexperienced get-rich-quick folks were the ones who didn't know the right time when to get out, but their investments were small and meaningless anyway.

I think that the bitcoin scenery is amusing because people are still in strong denial about the whole 2013 pump situation. Miners are still holding their high production cost coin because "any minute now, another mysterious and unexplained pump will surely come". But it won't come if no one is orchestrating a similar fraud.
The coming of Gemini is finally dissolving this myth that institutional investors are waiting for the right chance to be the greater fools of bitcoin. I think that this myth will now be more in the form of "ETF will change everything!".
So, to me, it's not a question if the bitcoin price will face a total collapse, but only when will it happen.
When will all the illusions of bitcoins worth finally fade. When people will finally realize that artificial scarcity doesn't work with something that is easily replaceable, and the network effect of bitcoin is mostly dependent on a bad brand name. That the future of crypto is not about them getting easy riches, but about better technological solutions that have addressed the problems that have kept bitcoin from being a practical tool of finance.

In essence, Mt Gox was one factor that affected BTC prices in various ways and continues to have some effects on BTC prices.

But in the end, merely because some people, including yourself and Question Authority are placing a lot of emphasis and explanation into the MT Gox pumping spin does NOT cause that to be some kind of true and meaningful assessment of the BTC situation.

You surely seem to spend a lot of time on these forums attempting to tell BTC enthusiasts that we are wrong... Why don't you go find a more fitting hobby and/or activity in which you can meaningfully contribute to some kind of positive change rather than wasting our time and possibly your time with your various meaningless prognostications and naysaying spins. 

Oh yeah, I forgot you cannot go somewhere else because you are likely needing to receive your pay for engaging in your FUD spreading.

[yolalanda]

Norway 25%

So there are folks who actually pay exchange rate +25% when they buy bitcoin? And probably from convenient bitcoin ATMs charging an extra 19% on top of that?
Color me impressed

For localbitcoins I had some people driving 2 hours to trade with me because the people in their city were charging 20-25%. At the time I was only charging 15%. I've since lowered it to 10.

You're likely dealing with money launderers, or desperately lonely people willing to go to any length, use any pretext, just to interact with another human being.
I know this because there are bitcoin exchanges, charging fees substantially lower than yours, on the interweb.
P.S. Do they [also] pay VAT, or?

I don't ask. The one guy who told me why was because he doesn't think his government should know every little thing he does with his money.

That one just keeps getting better each time I hear it

I actually paid 15% for 6k euros when I first arrived here because that was the only way I could get that many euros quickly. I needed it to buy a car.

I suppose your privacy-conscious friend was in a similar predicament. Won't even ask what he was so eager to buy...

[JorgeStolfi]

(Without some automatic and economically sound fee adjustment mechanism, a workaround would be to have a governing body like the international commission that defines and updates (by voting) the Metric System: with no legal power, but with effective moral power derived from competence and representativity.  But try telling that to the libertarians...)

What makes you think libertarians would object to that? Our problem is the initiation of force. Our core value is the NonAgression Principle.

Because those international committees (IERS, IUPAC, ISO, IEC, etc.) are formed by representatives of countries, usually appointed by the national standards bodies; and reach their decisions by voting (after years of technical discussion).  Correct me if I am wrong, but libertarians despise voting, because it means the majority imposing its decision on the minority. 

Libertarians prefer "consensus" instead; because, by definition, a consensus decision must please the minority parties too.  A pity that they can't explain how consensus could be achieved when the minority does not like what the majority proposes...

[JayJuanGee]

a six dollar pump? So what? It didn't even trigger my sell order. Why do you even care? What's these assholes like hdbuck even doing on a Wall Observer thread if they don't care about short and intermediate term prices as they claim?

I thought that you already sold at the first shot at $270, so you can "divest" a little?


Frequently you have a tendency to talk out of bot sides of your mouth - especially when it comes to your incorporating your book-talk

[Blazin8888]

The Cryptoscene is changing fast.....

Bitcoin will serve as Digital gold.
DASH will be worth around $100
DIGIBYTES will be the pennies of crypto.

Ethereum will run our household dapps and appliances

The future is coming folks. Strap in.

[Elwar]

Norway 25%

So there are folks who actually pay exchange rate +25% when they buy bitcoin? And probably from convenient bitcoin ATMs charging an extra 19% on top of that?
Color me impressed

For localbitcoins I had some people driving 2 hours to trade with me because the people in their city were charging 20-25%. At the time I was only charging 15%. I've since lowered it to 10.

You're likely dealing with money launderers, or desperately lonely people willing to go to any length, use any pretext, just to interact with another human being.
I know this because there are bitcoin exchanges, charging fees substantially lower than yours, on the interweb.
P.S. Do they [also] pay VAT, or?

I don't ask. The one guy who told me why was because he doesn't think his government should know every little thing he does with his money.

That one just keeps getting better each time I hear it

I actually paid 15% for 6k euros when I first arrived here because that was the only way I could get that many euros quickly. I needed it to buy a car.

I suppose your privacy-conscious friend was in a similar predicament. Won't even ask what he was so eager to buy...

Bitcoin being anonymous I don't get into it with people. I did have a guy from Italy sell me some bitcoins at 20% markup because it was the only way he could get cash quick (I had such a high markup because I don't tend to have a lot of cash handy). He was here for work and the ATM ate his card and he needed cash for an apartment (In Germany they tend to charge 3 months rent up front). I believe the ATM thing because I went to the same ATM with him and it ate my card also.

[Elwar]

Libertarians prefer "consensus" instead; because, by definition, a consensus decision must please the minority parties too.  A pity that they can't explain how consensus could be achieved when the minority does not like what the majority proposes...

If a minority does not agree with the "consensus" then it is not consensus.

If nobody is forced to do anything then those that are willing to carry things forward can do so. Linux is a simple example of this. Nobody is forced to use Gnome yet there is no consensus on using it. The minority might not like it. But they are not being forced to use it. They can come up with their own GUI or accept it if the majority puts all of the work into Gnome.

[yolalanda]

Norway 25%

So there are folks who actually pay exchange rate +25% when they buy bitcoin? And probably from convenient bitcoin ATMs charging an extra 19% on top of that?
Color me impressed

For localbitcoins I had some people driving 2 hours to trade with me because the people in their city were charging 20-25%. At the time I was only charging 15%. I've since lowered it to 10.

You're likely dealing with money launderers, or desperately lonely people willing to go to any length, use any pretext, just to interact with another human being.
I know this because there are bitcoin exchanges, charging fees substantially lower than yours, on the interweb.
P.S. Do they [also] pay VAT, or?

I don't ask. The one guy who told me why was because he doesn't think his government should know every little thing he does with his money.

That one just keeps getting better each time I hear it

I actually paid 15% for 6k euros when I first arrived here because that was the only way I could get that many euros quickly. I needed it to buy a car.

I suppose your privacy-conscious friend was in a similar predicament. Won't even ask what he was so eager to buy...

Bitcoin being anonymous I don't get into it with people. I did have a guy from Italy sell me some bitcoins at 20% markup because it was the only way he could get cash quick (I had such a high markup because I don't tend to have a lot of cash handy). He was here for work and the ATM ate his card and he needed cash for an apartment (In Germany they tend to charge 3 months rent up front). I believe the ATM thing because I went to the same ATM with him and it ate my card also.

Italian guy: This ATM just ate my  card, buy my BTC at 20% markup.
You:           Which one? Let us go there so I can stick my card in it too... Whoops!

[celebreze32]

I was too early with selling the news a few days ago.
Now the EU VAT news is out, I'm happy to know we're going down again.

What's the opposite of a dead cat bounce called? How do you know this isn't a small retrace before the price continues to rise higher? I didn't notice any posts here discussing rumors about the VAT decision. I couldn't find any threads about it until the news got out, and I didn't know anything about it until then. I doubt many others were buying the rumor if there were no rumors flying around here.

[Elwar]

Italian guy: This ATM just ate my  card, buy my BTC at 20% markup.
You:           Which one? Let us go there so I can stick my card in it too... Whoops!

It was more like.
Me: I thought you were buying bitcoins, not buying euros. I only have 300 on me. Let me get 400 euros from this ATM we're standing at.
ATM eats my card.
Italian guy: Yep, same thing happened to me.

[ssmc2]

So the last 2 run-ups we took about one month to top out. This time, we're over a month now and still rising.

#THISTIMEIT'SDIFFERENT  

[yolalanda]

Italian guy: This ATM just ate my  card, buy my BTC at 20% markup.
You:           Which one? Let us go there so I can stick my card in it too... Whoops!

It was more like.
Me: I thought you were buying bitcoins, not buying euros. I only have 300 on me. Let me get 400 euros from this ATM we're standing at.
ATM eats my card.
Italian guy: Yep, same thing happened to me.

So Italian guy just watched you stick your card into an ATM which ate his? The very reason he needed to sell you BTC at a 20% markup in the first place?
Didn't say "hey, maybe you should try a different ATM, this one just ate my card," just chuckled under his breath, you say?
So you couldn't get any cash?
Did the two of you go looking for another gentlemen, to sell him your bitcoin at a totally reasonable 20% markup, both of you needing cash?

[Blazin8888]

The Cryptoscene is changing fast.....

Bitcoin will serve as Digital gold.
DASH will be worth around $100
DIGIBYTES will be the pennies of crypto.

Ethereum will run our household dapps and appliances

The future is coming folks. Strap in.

So the last 2 run-ups we took about one month to top out. This time, we're over a month now and still rising.

#THISTIMEIT'SDIFFERENT  

Youre totally right. This time it is much different.

Many new players are entering the crypto space now with much much larger bank accounts.

ETH put Crypto on many IBM employees radars. New money is flowing into the ALTS and bitcoin.

[yolalanda]

... ETH put Crypto on many IBM employees radars. New money is flowing into the ALTS and bitcoin.

ETH? You mean Ethereum, the badly-mismanaged company that did manage to burn through an astounding sum of investor's money, with most of the hilarious losses allegedly incurred due to not dumping BTC while it was still worth money?
Or the crypto that's been going nowhere but down?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

I'm not even considering opening shorts until the $290s, and maybe not even then.

yeah, everybody waiting for 290~300 to short this round means 300 probably won't happen. not to mention that there were no serious corrections in this run up. buyers getting exhausted.

There was a flash dump to $258 from $272. I actually picked up some coins there.  Any dump over $10 gives smart traders a chance to reload. You may be right, but I'm not going to risk it.  lending out fiat is a sure profit, albeit a much smaller one.  The last margin cascade was a long squeeze in August. That means the next one is likely a short squeeze. I'm going to wait until after it happens to go short and if it doesn't happen, I'm still in the green. 

[Elwar]

Italian guy: This ATM just ate my  card, buy my BTC at 20% markup.
You:           Which one? Let us go there so I can stick my card in it too... Whoops!

It was more like.
Me: I thought you were buying bitcoins, not buying euros. I only have 300 on me. Let me get 400 euros from this ATM we're standing at.
ATM eats my card.
Italian guy: Yep, same thing happened to me.

So Italian guy just watched you stick your card into an ATM which ate his? The very reason he needed to sell you BTC at a 20% markup in the first place?
Didn't say "hey, maybe you should try a different ATM, this one just ate my card," just chuckled under his breath, you say?
So you couldn't get any cash?
Did the two of you go looking for another gentlemen, to sell him your bitcoin at a totally reasonable 20% markup, both of you needing cash?

While we were standing there a few other people used it. The reason it ate my card is likely because I didn't have the right PIN.

I couldn't get any cash. I gave him 300 so he could have spending money for a few days and I went to the bank the next day to get more (where they told me I entered the wrong PIN). We actually hung out a few times and talked about Bitcoin and general ex-pat type of stuff. I helped him figure out how to pay Expedia for a hotel room with bitcoins while he looked for an apartment. Eventually his wife sent him a replacement card from home. And I got my replacement card, though I never did use it (that was the first time I tried to use my ATM card).

[findftp]

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/657163992050171904

What happened to the bitcoin spin off?

[noobtrader]

(Without some automatic and economically sound fee adjustment mechanism, a workaround would be to have a governing body like the international commission that defines and updates (by voting) the Metric System: with no legal power, but with effective moral power derived from competence and representativity.  But try telling that to the libertarians...)

What makes you think libertarians would object to that? Our problem is the initiation of force. Our core value is the NonAgression Principle. Obviously society needs order and structure. Obviously there needs to be rules. We just want those rules to be enforced by imposing opportunity costs and to reserve violence for defensive purposes only.  Nothing in your workaround violates that.

maybe Prof. Jorge think that libertarian means anarchist.  were it was the same, we shouldnt make 2 word out of it isnt ?
btw : price rises another 10 usd wow... im impressed  

[Denker]

I was too early with selling the news a few days ago.
Now the EU VAT news is out, I'm happy to know we're going down again.

What's the opposite of a dead cat bounce called? How do you know this isn't a small retrace before the price continues to rise higher? I didn't notice any posts here discussing rumors about the VAT decision. I couldn't find any threads about it until the news got out, and I didn't know anything about it until then. I doubt many others were buying the rumor if there were no rumors flying around here.

There weren't any rumors floating around. So no buy the rumors and sell the news.You're right.
This vat news just came around the corner.Completely unexpected.