Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still over $270 I see.

The European VAT news is old now and the price is still holding. This is good.

[DaRude]

won't make 255 on this run, but will continue to trend up for 8-12 days, to a big test at 270.  fails the test.  retraces to 240, then continues up.

Seems legit.  Should make another run past 270 before any drop, though.

Okay, going out on a limb here.  I expect it to decline starting today.  Top is in for the next few weeks, if so.  My 40% alternative scenario is for 3 more weeks going up, touching 300.  I am playing both of these scenarios, with 60/40 allocation, personally.

So you're saying we either go up or down from here? Pure genius

[JorgeStolfi]

I would guess the MMM had between 0 and 0/1 effect on price.

Then what is your explanation for that rise?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[bitebits]

I would guess the MMM had between 0 and 0/1 effect on price.

Then what is your explanation for that rise?

Demand (is about to become) > Supply

[JorgeStolfi]

I would guess the MMM had between 0 and 0/1 effect on price.

Then what is your explanation for that rise?

Demand (is about to become) > Supply

Demand has always been exactly equal to supply; otherwise you would see unwanted bitcoins scattered on the ground around the bitcoin mines, or kings on their knees begging in vain for bitcoin holders to sell them a single satoshi for all the gold in their kingdoms and the hands of their princesses too.

You mean that more people are now more willing to pay more dollars for 1 BTC.  Fine, but why?  Saying that "the price rose because of supply and demand" is like saying that the weather is hot because the temperature got higher...

[oda.krell]

won't make 255 on this run, but will continue to trend up for 8-12 days, to a big test at 270.  fails the test.  retraces to 240, then continues up.

Seems legit.  Should make another run past 270 before any drop, though.

Okay, going out on a limb here.  I expect it to decline starting today.  Top is in for the next few weeks, if so.  My 40% alternative scenario is for 3 more weeks going up, touching 300.  I am playing both of these scenarios, with 60/40 allocation, personally.

So you're saying we either go up or down from here? Pure genius

While I personally disagree (more likely we have another leg up, imo), bolded above is what turns a tautology into a (tradeable) prediction.

[bitebits]

Demand (is about to become) > Supply

Saying that "the price rose because of supply and demand" is like saying that the weather is hot because the temperature got higher...

Thanks for the ELI5.

[gentlemand]

Thanks for the ELI5.

That's what professors are for. Nice to see him practicing his craft here.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[r0ach]

I would guess the MMM had between 0 and 0/1 effect on price.

Then what is your explanation for that rise?

Pretty god damn obvious, at least 500 billion dollars attempting to leave China, some of which is going into Bitcoin, and the halving is just beginning to start to have an initial price effect.  Negative interests rates gaining steam + more China fever + halving all at the same time = the perfect storm beginning.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/38474

[tarmi]

I would be worried if chinese were moving their $ using bitcoin because those millions of coins got to end somewhere.

the truth is that we are building ponzi (MMM) upon ponzi (OK Coin).

[oda.krell]

story time

Just stumbled over a private tracker site that I thought about signing up for. Polish, pretty active by the looks of it. They ask for a 0.01 BTC sign up contribution. Not overly greedy, which I liked. Made me grin as well. Just like that, some millennials over in Poland, asking me "Want to sign up? Send us a small amount of BTC, it's hassle free and doesn't get blocked."

I don't really care much whether the ETF starts trading this year or not, or if the sound money zealots will have their field day anytime soon. As long as a bunch of kids likely around half my age at the other end of the EU use the Blockchain as an overengineered tipping jar, I'm happy for now.

No sarcasm or bitterness in that last line. Some humbleness maybe, compared to the thoughts I had on the matter two years ago, but only the most cynical of assholes will conflate these two.

/story time

[chennan]

I would be worried if chinese were moving their $ using bitcoin because those millions of coins got to end somewhere.

the truth is that we are building ponzi (MMM) upon ponzi (OK Coin).

Maybe they will put some of those coins back on the market just to have fiat, but I'm starting to think everyone is speculating that the prices are going up very soon, so maybe they will keep a majority of those coins and hang on for the ride... who knows... it's going to be fun to watch, that's all I know.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[ElectricMucus]

story time

Just stumbled over a private tracker site that I thought about signing up for. Polish, pretty active by the looks of it. They ask for a 0.01 BTC sign up contribution. Not overly greedy, which I liked. Made me grin as well. Just like that, some millennials over in Poland, asking me "Want to sign up? Send us a small amount of BTC, it's hassle free and doesn't get blocked."

I don't really care much whether the ETF starts trading this year or not, or if the sound money zealots will have their field day anytime soon. As long as a bunch of kids likely around half my age at the other end of the EU use the Blockchain as an overengineered tipping jar, I'm happy for now.

No sarcasm or bitterness in that last line. Some humbleness maybe, compared to the thoughts I had on the matter two years ago, but only the most cynical of assholes will conflate these two.

/story time

Well, as a representative of the pointing and laughing crowd I can tell you that this story and what it portrays totally makes sense even to me.
I'd even say that I totally support bitcoin for that kind of usage, still.

[Tzupy]

...
My guess is that the month-long rise from ~220 to ~270 was due to MMM's "Republic of Bitcoin" ponzi, while the spike to ~280 over the last two days was due to the VAT decision.
It seems that the VAT news have already been forgotten.  "Wat VAT?" 

Most of the rise was a normal market movement after the rather deep correction before.
But the huge buys in China are probably related to this, interpreted as bullish news (authorities friendly towards bitcoin):
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/chinas-cyberspace-administration-acknowledges-bitcoin/
But the CAC is NOT the PBoC, so it was kind of "buy the rumor" thing. I expect sometime in the next weeks an official statement of the PBoC on this.

[tarmi]

yeap, chinese gov unbanned something that got banned like 10 times. 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin

Explanation

[solid12345]

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/chinas-cyberspace-administration-acknowledges-bitcoin/
But the CAC is NOT the PBoC, so it was kind of "buy the rumor" thing. I expect sometime in the next weeks an official statement of the PBoC on this.

The thing is I would say the CAC is probably more political and hardline than the PBoC, afterall these are the guys responsible for the great firewall of China. The PBoC is more concerned with economic matters and not civil freedoms. If the CAC is saying it's okay then you might as well accept the Chinese government itself is endorsing it.