Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

another black friday deal
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1268045.new#new
 

[peonminer]

another black friday deal
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1268045.new#new
 

Will it ship loaded

[Cconvert2G36]

The mining game is pretty simple on the macro level, either the price goes up, or mining power falls as reward decays. The idea that a big group of miners will shut off their machines around the moment of the halving is cute... but I think there are so many variables at play (efficiency, power sources, selling of machines to the public) that any shift will be smoothed, and the difficulty mechanism will do its job.

Above $300, plenty of gear will be profitable post-halving. And if it isn't... it will drop off, but not faster than what is corrected by the adjustment window. As mining gets less profitable, the cheaper way to acquire them becomes the market, which adjusts incentives accordingly.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Richy_T]

The span between reward halving/next difficulty adjustment: Brrrrr.

Yep. I'm actually fairly optimistic but there's a lot that goes into it. I believe the more efficient miners are running at about 33% cost at the moment (or that might be 33% profit. But somewhere in there anyway). That is a fair bit of elbow room. However, the hash rate is climbing rapidly, not all of which will be efficiency gains. I don't think miners are sitting on shelves either so it's likely climbing as fast as it can with what can be bought. Though there's two ways of looking at that. Would producers leave them sitting on shelves inactive, waiting for purchasers or have them running for "testing" (as BFL was often accused of)?

So hashrate will be climbing, price will (might) be climbing. There may be margins or not. There will be people who are willing to mine at a loss (though surely not the majority) just because and perhaps those who will be willing to mine at a loss *for now* in anticipation of higher prices. Then again, if you don't mine, the next difficulty adjustment will move further out and confidence in Bitcoin and hence, probably price will fall. But there's a prisoner's dilemma there. Block size may or may not be an issue still...

I'll be sure to have plenty of popcorn. There won't be another halving like this one.

[Richy_T]

Above $300, plenty of gear will be profitable post-halving. And if it isn't... it will drop off, but not faster than what is corrected by the adjustment window. As mining gets less profitable, the cheaper way to acquire them becomes the market, which adjusts incentives accordingly.

I hope so. And people say things were OK last halving. But I think I noticed in the data that the block time did lengthen out for a while after it happened. I'll have to run the numbers.

The issue isn't obtaining bitcoins though, the issue is the lengthening of the block times and the corresponding drop on the transaction rate which may then cause the price to drop and make mining even more unprofitable which...

[Cconvert2G36]

Above $300, plenty of gear will be profitable post-halving. And if it isn't... it will drop off, but not faster than what is corrected by the adjustment window. As mining gets less profitable, the cheaper way to acquire them becomes the market, which adjusts incentives accordingly.

I hope so. And people say things were OK last halving. But I think I noticed in the data that the block time did lengthen out for a while after it happened. I'll have to run the numbers.

GPU days, pretty sure I ran at a nominal loss for a while there, harvesting heat to compensate. What's old is new again. At least the field was a bit more level back then for the little guys. GPU rigs actually took some maintenance, even if it could be streamlined with scripts and pdu's with ip control.

[marcus_of_augustus]

As mining gets less profitable, the cheaper way to acquire them becomes the market, which adjusts incentives accordingly.

this is the mechanism that puts the effective floor under the bitcoin price. And as long as difficulty keeps rising and halvings keep going the floor keeps rising

It's like a ratchet mechanism, speculators bid it up, miners chase the profit and expand operations, difficulty rises, new floor cost<=>price rises, price drops back to floor cost, miners buy at market, speculators pile back in, miners expand, difficulty rises, rinse, repeat.

[Cconvert2G36]

As mining gets less profitable, the cheaper way to acquire them becomes the market, which adjusts incentives accordingly.

this is the mechanism that puts the effective floor under the bitcoin price. And as long as difficulty keeps rising and halvings keep going the floor keeps rising

It's like a ratchet mechanism, speculators bid it up, miners chase the profit and expand operations, difficulty rises, new floor cost<=>price rises, price drops back to floor cost, miners buy at market, speculators pile back in, miners expand, difficulty rises, rinse, repeat.

This only happens in the face of demand for the product.

Block reward is Bitcoin's manna... to be consumed while the network grows to eat everyone else's lunch. Let's hope we get some action on capacity in 2016, additional capacity from multiple angles.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[teddy5145]

The price seems stable around 350-360 in the past few days
Any chance the price will go back to 320 at this point ?

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

http://bitcoinclock.com/

bitcoin cost of production doubles on or around 23.07.2016 ... the floor price will get raised in proportion, one way or another.

Bitcoin cost of production just went up 10.44% on the 24th, and will go up by 12.18% in just 9 days. That's almost half of what the block reward halving will do

@shorts will be homeless: stop being such a rude faggot.

More complicated than that. Increasing miner efficiency mitigates that but then there's the cost of upgrading miners to stay in the game...

Also more complicated than saying that the cost of production doubles come the halving. That is not really the same as the reward halving.

Fun & games ahead...

Yeah, tons of variables, too many for me, I conceded that.

...
yeah, we can go off on tangents re. more efficient gear, amortization schedules, Easter Bunny bringing extra BTC, BTC going up in price, etc., etc.
I'm going on the simplest, "everything being the same" model

@JayJuanGee: Until you learn to figure out what it is you're hoping to say & stop using x5 too many words, I'm afraid this is my last reply.

O.k. newbie

[Cconvert2G36]

Our secret weapon, with no known antidote... badger nlc with jjg, until the will to continue is lost.

[JayJuanGee]

The price seems stable around 350-360 in the past few days
Any chance the price will go back to 320 at this point ?

seems a little ridiculous that in the past few months that nearly every time that the BTC price is stuck in a certain price range for a few days, someone will assess that the price seems "stable here."

Actually it is my sense that you gotta give the period much more than a few days before you call "stable here."    Maybe absent other factors 1-2 weeks could be a bit more realistic to begin to consider possibilities of "stable here?"

Maybe there remains a bit of overzealous desire for "stable here" when in fact it is fairly possible that BTC prices are not going to become too stable until after the next bubble.. .maybe in the retracement into the mid $2,000s?

[Cconvert2G36]

Ahh, 'nother hit of that china white organic growth. 

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Richy_T]

seems a little ridiculous that in the past few months that nearly every time that the BTC price is stuck in a certain price range for a few days, someone will assess that the price seems "stable here."

If you see me say it (and I do), be sure that it is tongue-in-cheek. The fundamentals to me mean we can not stay here for too long (though the direction is up for grabs)