Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Hyperjacked]

All this BS trash talk with a bunch of homeless retail investors is making me want to FAT finger this thing!!!

[ssmc2]

600 by Monday cuz trains n rockets n honeybadgers n stuff

[Hyperjacked]

600 by Monday cuz trains n rockets n honeybadgers n stuff

I'm sure you'll be the last to know...

Guess you didn't get the last memo...

[Hyperjacked]

My upbringing was not easy but I appreciate what I went through cause not only did it make me stronger but I have empathy for those that are down and out!

Maybe that's what you fools don't get...

So what you're telling me is that which didn't kill you ...made you stronger?
Was already envious of your superb genetics, but your tale of overcoming hardships in the pitiless [Wall]streets of NYC made me also respect and admire you

Do you have anything logical about BTC to discuss?


Well I've been slowing buying at these prices...gotta go slow

[Meuh6879]

Can someone make some popcorn?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[peonminer]

600 by Monday cuz trains n rockets n honeybadgers n stuff

Logical enough for me!

[JorgeStolfi]

PS. Even IF the most recent bitcoin price rally (started 2015-11-24) is indeed due to the Chinese crackdown on UnionPay abuse, it may not cause intervention on the Chinese bitcoin exchanegs.

When the Chinese citizens used the UnionPay route, they took yuan out of the Mainland economy, and some of those yuan ended yp in foreign hands.  From the perspective of the Chinese central bank (PBoC), that is bad.  For one ting, those yuan could be ammunition for speculative attacks against the currency; in order to fight such attacks, the PBoC would have to spend some of its reserves of foreign currency.  Anyway, the net result would be the Chinese population becoming poorer relative to the rest of the world.

With the bitcoin way, hoewever, the yuan will remain all in the Mainland.  The Chinese citizens will take the "worthless" bitcoins, cheaply made in China, and sell them to foreign buyers for foreign currency.  Some of that foreign currency will find its way in the PBoC coffers, some will be used by the Chinese to buy property abroad.  Either way, the net result will be the Chinese people becoming richer relative to the rest of the world.

If this analysis is correct, the good news (for traders) is that the PBoC is unlikely to intervene and restrict thet trading of bitcoins at the exchanges.  On the other hand, the price may drop once the Chinese who are buying bitcoin in China for that purpose will start selling them in the "Western"  exchanges. (Maybe this is the cause of the recent drop to ~$430).

By the way, this chart may be evidence that the rallies of the last three months are due to real demand, rather than manipulation in the exchanges.  Note that the total transaction value (in USD/day, excluding return change outputs) in the blockchain, which dropped at the end of 2013 and has been nearly flat for 20 months, climbed suddenly since 2015-11, together with the trading volume inside the Chinese exchanges.  This is consistent with the MMM and bitcoin-exporting theories: hoarders send their BTC to the Chinese exchanges, a different set of people withdraws them, and deposits them to foreign exchanges.

[peonminer]

How much did you lose to MMM? You're really stuck on that one operation.

[bitebits]

Isn't that growth in hash rate just both beautiful and impressive. I can't believe the hash rate was so low in Q4 of 2013 compared to today, while it seemed incredibly high at the time. The current hash rate is really below imagination, so much computing power!

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

[practicaldreamer]

With the bitcoin way, hoewever, the yuan will remain all in the Mainland.  The Chinese citizens will take the "worthless" bitcoins, cheaply made in China, and sell them to foreign buyers for foreign currency.  Some of that foreign currency will find its way in the PBoC coffers, some will be used by the Chinese to buy property abroad.  Either way, the net result will be the Chinese people becoming richer relative to the rest of the world.

Anyone know what proportion of BTC is produced in China/held in China/sold out of and into China ?

Without this info I don't know that I can put too much store in this theory Jorge.

"...the Chinese people becoming richer relative to the rest of the world"

They are - but I'm not sure its attributable to the reasons you've cited.

[Hyperjacked]

My upbringing was not easy but I appreciate what I went through cause not only did it make me stronger but I have empathy for those that are down and out!

Maybe that's what you fools don't get...

So what you're telling me is that which didn't kill you ...made you stronger?
Was already envious of your superb genetics, but your tale of overcoming hardships in the pitiless [Wall]streets of NYC made me also respect and admire you

Do you have anything logical about BTC to discuss?

What do your abandonment issues, cardboard box upbringing, and Grandpa Munster supporting all y'all with $20 bills have to do with bitcoin?
Also, where the f8ck are my hubcaps?

@peonminer: Don't make fun of MMM just because you don't understand it. At least read Sereja's white paper.

can't someone ban this guys IP address ? Same guy with multiple accounts

[JorgeStolfi]

How much did you lose to MMM? You're really stuck on that one operation.

Are you asking me?  I do not knowingly "invest" in pyramid schemes, just as I do not gamble. (Last time I did, it was some US$ 200 into the Brazilian branch of Amway, in the early 1990s, because of pressure from a family member whose feelings we did not want to hurt.)  

But I find the scams and scammers the most interesting part of bitcoin. Mark Karpelès, Josh Zipkin, Josh Zerlan, Josh Garza (hm, is there a pattern there?), Danny Brewster, Craig Wright... Each case is more incredible than the previous one: if made into movies, they would be dismissed by critics for the outlandish plots...

But why do you think that the MMM theory is wrong?  Have you checked the story of the previous ponzis by Sergei Mavrodi, in Russia and China India?  Check the amounts involved, and compare to the bitcoin market cap...

[Fatman3001]

What I was driving at is that an appeal to authority is always hollow.

It might matter in this environment. All I'm saying is that, in any event, he doesn't seem to let the truth get in the way when he wants to affect the mood in here.

@Hyperjacked

Don't throw a hissy fit just because I arrest you on this stuff. You're not the only one talking your book here, but you do tend to polish your ego more than most.

[Hyperjacked]

How much did you lose to MMM? You're really stuck on that one operation.

Are you asking me?  I do not knowingly "invest" in pyramid schemes, just as I do not gamble. (Last time I did, it was some US$ 200 into the Brazilian branch of Amway, in the early 1990s, because of pressure from a family member whose feelings we did not want to hurt.) 

But I find the scams and scammers the most interesting part of bitcoin. Mark Karpelès, Josh Zipkin, Josh Zerlan, Josh Garza (hm, is there a pattern there?), Danny Brewster, Craig Wright... Each case is more incredible than the previous one: if made into movies, they would be dismissed by critics for the outlandish plots...

But why do you think that the MMM theory is wrong?  Have you checked the story of the previous ponzis by Sergei Mavrodi, in Russia and China?  Check the amounts involved, and compare to the bitcoin market cap...

Yes please Peonminer...do tell!

I've been getting relentlessly trolled by the squad tonight...maybe you can shed some light!

I'll get the popcorn this time...

[TERA]

I came on here today to see 10 different people posting 10 different charts with 10 different sets of weird indicators/lines all with an arrow shooting way up into the sky. I'll take that as indication that it's NOT Time to bet the farm just yet.

[peonminer]

@Peonminer. sfyl

Yep. Waiting on 157 ETH withdrawal. TXID and not showing on the blockchain. @JShock says around t-minus 8 hours til it's fixed. Fingers crossed. I even said, "Mein Fuhrer, please hear my cry!". Oddly enough, I got an answer after that.

How much did you lose to MMM? You're really stuck on that one operation.

Are you asking me?  I do not knowingly "invest" in pyramid schemes, just as I do not gamble. (Last time I did, it was some US$ 200 into the Brazilian branch of Amway, in the early 1990s, because of pressure from a family member whose feelings we did not want to hurt.)  

But I find the scams and scammers the most interesting part of bitcoin. Mark Karpelès, Josh Zipkin, Josh Zerlan, Josh Garza (hm, is there a pattern there?), Danny Brewster, Craig Wright... Each case is more incredible than the previous one: if made into movies, they would be dismissed by critics for the outlandish plots...

But why do you think that the MMM theory is wrong?  Have you checked the story of the previous ponzis by Sergei Mavrodi, in Russia and China?  Check the amounts involved, and compare to the bitcoin market cap...

There may be merit yet! I'm not bashing. Usually if a member is stuck on something ponzi-ish like MMM, they've taken quite a beating. Yep, I've been burned just like most. I am glad to say though, my earnings out weigh the burnings.

I do enjoy your theories Jorge, they shed probable light on a very manipulated appearance.

[JorgeStolfi]

Anyone know what proportion of BTC is produced in China/held in China/sold out of China ?

Without this info I don't know that I can put too much store in this theory Jorge.

There is practically no reliable info on the bitcoin economy, in particular on the flow and ownership of bitcoin by country. (This is a serious problem for would-be investors.)

We can only note that more than 67% of all new bitcoins are mined by Chinese pools, which probably comprise mostly Chinese miners; and that bitcoin has practically no use inside China, except as an instrument of speculative trading inside the exchanges.  Until last October, variations of trading volume at those exchanges did not seem to be reflected in the USD transaction volume, which may mean that there was little deposit and withdrawal at those exchanges. 

There is efficient arbitrage between the Chinese and non-Chinese exchanges. If Chinese miners sold their coins only in Chinese exchanges, that would tend to depress the price there.  Then the arbitragers would immediately move those excess coins to non-Chinese exchanges, until the prices got equalized.

So, I would guess that it does not matter where the Chinese miners sell: the net effect is that a large fraction (if not most) of the bitcoins mined in China are eventually bought and hoarded by non-Chinese investors.

[Globb0]

[Fatman3001]

Isn't that growth in hash rate just both beautiful and impressive. I can't believe the hash rate was so low in Q4 of 2013 compared to today, while it seemed incredibly high at the time. The current hash rate is really below imagination, so much computing power!

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

So it was 1000 PetaFLOPS back then. And that IS impressive:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/reuvencohen/2013/11/28/global-bitcoin-computing-power-now-256-times-faster-than-top-500-supercomputers-combined/

But now it's 7961281.54 PetaFLOPS.

http://www.bitcoinwatch.com/