Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[pleaseexplainagain]

the price has gone from $250 to $450 (up 80%) in just 2 months with no real positive news eg no increased adoption etc.

IMHO, price has gone from $1000 to $250 in just one year with no real negative news. And BTW, adoption is constantly increasing!

wasn't the drive to $1000 created by the willybot so that when it all came unstuck the price simply went down to around where it might have otherwise have been. ie it was pumped up and collapsed. it did go down on no negative news (other than the thing being a 'have') but I note it also went up to $1000 on no real positive news.  to me the $1000 ATH was just a faster/steeper rise than the current one but otherwise its much the same and that makes me suspicious.

[Tulsene]

the price has gone from $250 to $450 (up 80%) in just 2 months with no real positive news eg no increased adoption etc.
Does anyone else besides me call that a pump? And after a pump comes dumpy, dumpy, doo.
Let the buyer beware.
 

At least short-to-mid term, price is not mainly a function of fundamentals, including adoption. That said, increased adoption has taken place, and it is likely to be at least one factor in the current trend.

Note also that, just as before, it takes a while before it shows an effect on price. It's a pattern playing out for third or fourth time now:

1. Adoption is "ahead" of price, market begins to rally.
2. Price gets ahead of adoption during major rally (possibly goes to new ATH), falls back sharply. Bear market commences.
3. Adoption continues, price continues to fall. This goes on until the set-up is again as in step 1.

As for evidence of increased adoption, see for example:



Sure, no. of tx is not the final word, as it's a metric that can be manipulated. But there's a similar picture for hashrate, no. of wallets, etc., so I take it that the most likely interpretation is that adoption isn't exactly skyrocketing (like some bulls were/are hoping), but that it's growing in a pretty respectable way, that could be taken to be somewhere between 'steep linear' and 'comparably shallow exponential'.

Look at bitcoin day destroyed too ... when it grow a lot, it'll dump

[becoin]

wasn't the drive to $1000 created by the willybot so that when it all came unstuck the price simply went down to around where it might have otherwise have been.

No, the drive to $1000 was created by greed and increased adoption. The willybot has nothing to do with it. It all came unstuck when the US government confiscated MtGox's bitcoins and later sold them out to crash the market.

[600watt]

Look at bitcoin day destroyed too ... when it grow a lot, it'll dump

ok, let´s check bitcoin days destroyed:

https://blockchain.info/de/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


looks like they are heading towards all-time-low  

[Elwar]

the price has gone from $250 to $450 (up 80%) in just 2 months with no real positive news eg no increased adoption etc.
Does anyone else besides me call that a pump? And after a pump comes dumpy, dumpy, doo.
Let the buyer beware.

The good news is that the long crash is over. Most people were skeptical of where the bottom was so it would not have been wise to invest when the price could continue to fall.

Now the market has shown that the bottom is in, people are fairly confident that the price will not go below that bottom and now that the price is rising people can see the potential for a price climb.

The price has been too low all year due to the worry about falling lower. We are finally returning to where it should be.

I do not think it should go much higher (around $500 or so) but the momentum will likely shoot it up beyond where it should be. But there is always the correction.

[Fatman3001]

wasn't the drive to $1000 created by the willybot so that when it all came unstuck the price simply went down to around where it might have otherwise have been.

No, the drive to $1000 was created by greed and increased adoption. The willybot has nothing to do with it. It all came unstuck when the US government confiscated MtGox's bitcoins and later sold them out to crash the market.

And every time China "banned" Bitcoin it smacked down the price. Mt. Gox was a hard blow to the infrastructure, but the chinese governments suppression of Bitcoin was what put an end to the Rally.

This was the start of the end:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-12-05/china-s-pboc-bans-financial-companies-from-bitcoin-transactions

And then there were article after article of this and that chinese exchange being told by their banks that they've gotten an unfriendly phone call from someone in the government. For quite some time you had to fill up your exchange account on coupons.

Hard to get big investors interested with all that going on.

Edit: here's coindesks price index from that period:



Notice how it peaks on the 4th, one day before the PBOC announcement.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Tulsene]

Look at bitcoin day destroyed too ... when it grow a lot, it'll dump

ok, let´s check bitcoin days destroyed:

https://blockchain.info/de/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?timespan=2year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=


looks like they are heading towards all-time-low  

for now ... and if I'm right it take time to chart to be updated. But this is a good dump indicator...

[brg444]

So anybody knows wtf is happening at Coinbase 

[aztecminer]

There are about 35.000.000 people in world with more than 1.000.000,00 USD....

sonner or later BTC will go above 1M USD/BTC

that might happen when usd gives up the ghost... although when it does one ounce silver will be worth multiples of bitcoins . people who own metals will be able to trade them for the "schiest dollars" at the state depository which then can be traded one million "schiest dollars" per one bitcoin at coinbase.

[Fatman3001]

So anybody knows wtf is happening at Coinbase 

Looks like someone is trying to paint a handle on the cup.

[aztecminer]

So anybody knows wtf is happening at Coinbase 

that is strange.

[hunnaryb]

So anybody knows wtf is happening at Coinbase 

I also would like to hear people's wisdom on this.

[celebreze32]

So anybody knows wtf is happening at Coinbase 

I also would like to hear people's wisdom on this.

I don't know why, but its had its highest volume for a long time over the last day. It's strange because the price hasn't gone up or down too dramatically. If I didn't know better I would think someone's trying to artificially inflate its volume with wash trading, but it's a regulated exchange so that's impossible, right?

[hunnaryb]

So anybody knows wtf is happening at Coinbase 

I also would like to hear people's wisdom on this.

I don't know why, but its had its highest volume for a long time over the last day. It's strange because the price hasn't gone up or down too dramatically. If I didn't know better I would think someone's trying to artificially inflate its volume with wash trading, but it's a regulated exchange so that's impossible, right?

Well they can still wash trade if they use different accounts

[acquafredda]

So anybody knows wtf is happening at Coinbase 

I also would like to hear people's wisdom on this.

I don't know why, but its had its highest volume for a long time over the last day. It's strange because the price hasn't gone up or down too dramatically. If I didn't know better I would think someone's trying to artificially inflate its volume with wash trading, but it's a regulated exchange so that's impossible, right?

Regulated or not I think coinbase works on a fractional-reserve base like any other bitcoin proprietary exchange out there. Most evident us of this system happens in China as we know it but it happens as well on EU/USA exchanges.
So, maybe you're right, someone's trying to inflate the volume.

[Fatman3001]

So anybody knows wtf is happening at Coinbase 

I also would like to hear people's wisdom on this.

I don't know why, but its had its highest volume for a long time over the last day. It's strange because the price hasn't gone up or down too dramatically. If I didn't know better I would think someone's trying to artificially inflate its volume with wash trading, but it's a regulated exchange so that's impossible, right?

Or hide volume on coinbase since nobody's really watching them. Could just be that it's the best place for americans to get coins.

I'm just thinking out loud here.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Nice little 11 (ish) USD rise today. Consolidating above 400 & staying there over the festive period would be bullush imo. It's not moon time & all that jazz but stability is key for us to gain trust & added interest from average joe. I wouldn't mind going sideways for a month or two now.

[becoin]

So anybody knows wtf is happening at Coinbase 

I also would like to hear people's wisdom on this.

Don't keep large amounts of bitcoins on your bitcoin exchange account. Don't forget MtGox. Sooner or later, one way or another, your bitcoins will be confiscated by panicking state or quasi-state actors.