Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Really the technical analysis works to foresee the future bitcoin price? I don't think so, and there is an increasing number of specialist that consider the technical analysis as a set of superstitions and subjective beliefs rather than an objective method to understand the market behavior.

No.

MOST people try & fail to predict the price that way. Anybody can draw lines on a graph & say that's what is going to happen to the price.

TA can't predict pumps caused by major mainstream news or whales messing about with the market.

[dloghwak]

Really the technical analysis works to foresee the future bitcoin price? I don't think so, and there is an increasing number of specialist that consider the technical analysis as a set of superstitions and subjective beliefs rather than an objective method to understand the market behavior.

No.

MOST people try & fail to predict the price that way. Anybody can draw lines on a graph & say that's what is going to happen to the price.

TA can't predict pumps caused by major mainstream news or whales mesding about with the market.

If everyone sees the same pattern it kind of becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

[oda.krell]

^ Not saying I agree with the above chart (in fact, I don't ), but on the broader question "Is TA just superstition", I'll just refer to:

TA is useless whether the market is rigged or not. It's by chance that your TA turns out correct. It's the fuckin astrology of markets

Guess it's time again to dig out my canned link collection, in response to the claim "TA is just cargo cult / Didn't you know about {strong, weak} efficiency?"...

# Case studies
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957417410002149
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9204370&fileId=S0022109013000586
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=685361

# Theoretical explanations of TA (and its underlying informal or semi-formal notions)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426608002951
http://rfs.oxfordjournals.org/content/2/4/527.abstract
https://www.cis.upenn.edu/~mkearns/teaching/cis700/lo.pdf <-- Brilliant article. Central claim: Finance is algebraic and numerical math (plus computation), TA is visual, geometric (and largely intuitionistic "algorithms"), hence the gap between the two fields, despite large possible overlap.

# Meta studies
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=603481
http://www.nber.org/papers/w20592 <-- One of my favorites. They're rather critical of TA, and propose substantially higher statistical thresholds, but also list a few technical factors that seem to be established beyond doubt.

[Hyperjacked]

Really the technical analysis works to foresee the future bitcoin price? I don't think so, and there is an increasing number of specialist that consider the technical analysis as a set of superstitions and subjective beliefs rather than an objective method to understand the market behavior.

Technical Analysis (TA) means nothing unless you know what TA the whales use!!!

It's NOT one chart but a mosaic that we can choose a few pieces for!!!

[Wekkel]

TA can't predict pumps caused by major mainstream news or whales mesding about with the market.

Exactly. No one knows the future. It's all about probabilities and TA can be useful in that respect.

Awaiting that major bull whale buy....

[flagpara]

I hope bıtcoın prices, which has been linear this weekend, will be up and down prices next week. Because this stable condition isnt beneficial for everyone.

Agreed! Btc is, for lots of us, a speculation market, and it's really painful to see something like that not moving.
And of course for all the people actually using and believing in btc potential it's a pain in the ass to see the price unable to go beyond the 450$. So let's hope it'll move!

Though a stable price over time could be benefitial to btc community in the end, cause it would be more reliable!

GET a GRIP!!!!


These are not exactly perilous times for BTC  and its prices. 

Priced have been in the supra $400 territories for nearly 2 weeks, and that is not a bad thing for those who are contemplating continued good future price performance for BTC.

Yes, it is possible that BTC prices may go below $400 again within the coming weeks or later down the road, but certainly those of us optimistic about the future of BTC are not in a bad place at the moment, if you consider the past two years and even if you consider the past 5 years in light of a lot of the recent developments around BTC and the current public sentiments.

Dude... calm down maybe?
You express your interest towards btc stability and high prices. I express mine towards volatility.

There can be no perilous times for btc unless a major flaw is discovered so I don't really understand what you're trying to tell me...

[Hyperjacked]

^ Not saying I agree with the above chart (in fact, I don't ), but on the broader question "Is TA just superstition", I'll just refer to:

TA is useless whether the market is rigged or not. It's by chance that your TA turns out correct. It's the fuckin astrology of markets

Guess it's time again to dig out my canned link collection, in response to the claim "TA is just cargo cult / Didn't you know about {strong, weak} efficiency?"...

# Case studies
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957417410002149
http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=9204370&fileId=S0022109013000586
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=685361

# Theoretical explanations of TA (and its underlying informal or semi-formal notions)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426608002951
http://rfs.oxfordjournals.org/content/2/4/527.abstract
https://www.cis.upenn.edu/~mkearns/teaching/cis700/lo.pdf <-- Brilliant article. Central claim: Finance is algebraic and numerical math (plus computation), TA is visual, geometric (and largely intuitionistic "algorithms"), hence the gap between the two fields, despite large possible overlap.

# Meta studies
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=603481
http://www.nber.org/papers/w20592 <-- One of my favorites. They're rather critical of TA, and propose substantially higher statistical thresholds, but also list a few technical factors that seem to be established beyond doubt.

Its all mathematics...and it does not matter what anyone believes ! Math is math...charts are charts..it is what it is!

no one argues if 2+2=4 it's what you do with the 4$

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[klee]

Not sure about other TA tools but Point & Figure does NOT predict the future.

It actually confirms what a whale or new will do to the price.

So it gives you a degree of certainty when the price breaks out that the trend is indeed strong.

It helps you go with the trend and not fight it.

What may seem as a prediction to someone is that it tells you where strong support/resistance is and what is the current trend (and when this change).

I like to say it is like a map - it does not tell you where or how to go somewhere but you need it in order to travel.

[TERA]

A macd crossing down at the high is a really weak indicator.

[Hyperjacked]

Not sure about other TA tools but Point & Figure does NOT predict the future.

It actually confirms what a whale or new will do to the price.

So it gives you a degree of certainty when the price breaks out that the trend is indeed strong.

It helps you go with the trend and not fight it.

What may seem as a prediction to someone is that it tells you where strong support/resistance is and what is the current trend (and when this change).

I like to say it is like a map - it does not tell you where or how to go somewhere but you need it in order to travel.

Yes sir...and when you watch BTC charts for years you can get a pulse on how the composite operator  trades!

It's the same old same old...money in the bank

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

   Repeating past statements, it is acknowledged that Peter’s scorched
    earth replace-by-fee proposal is aptly named, and would be widely
    anti-social on the current network
    — Jeff Garzik

https://medium.com/@octskyward/replace-by-fee-43edd9a1dd6d#.i51ri5mmg

RBF isn't cool. It ain't cool Adam!!

[Wekkel]

Charts can say anything. It's just a tool to guess probabilities.

Still awaiting whale buy...

[Fatman3001]

I know some speculators reverted to fiat at the end of the year because of accounting/taxation uncertainties in previous years. If these uncertainties have been cleared up it might be less selling pressure towards the end of the month than I originally feared.
 
Or I could be talking out of my ass. Who knows?

[TERA]

I know some speculators reverted to fiat at the end of the year because of accounting/taxation uncertainties in previous years. If these uncertainties have been cleared up it might be less selling pressure towards the end of the month than I originally feared.
 
Or I could be talking out of my ass. Who knows?

I'm actually specifically waiting till 2016 before I do any fiat/btc exchanges, for tax purposes. I'd prefer not to do any trading at all, but if there's a move I might trade on margin.

[Fatman3001]

Who knows?

Hey! That's not my ass!



Is it?

[Fatman3001]

I know some speculators reverted to fiat at the end of the year because of accounting/taxation uncertainties in previous years. If these uncertainties have been cleared up it might be less selling pressure towards the end of the month than I originally feared.
 
Or I could be talking out of my ass. Who knows?

I'm actually specifically waiting till 2016 before I do any fiat/btc exchanges, for tax purposes. I'd prefer not to do any trading at all, but if there's a move I might trade on margin.

I hope you're indicative of what's to come early next year. I'm half expecting fireworks.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Who knows?

Hey! That's not my ass!



Is it?

It IS!

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Hyperjacked]

You can hear a pin drop...