Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Price Rising Again and it is predicted to go Beyong 403$ by 24 hours.
Time to buy guys...

The time to buy was when Hearn cried off.

Wonder if he bought back in at massive profit after he dumped us to 370 or whatever the short term low was.

[Dotto]

Bull trend confirmed

[CuntChocula]

Bull trend confirmed

*trap

[Alley]

I thought bitcoin was dead???

[rebuilder]

I thought bitcoin was dead???

It's like a variation of schrodinger's cat, with the distinction that when you stop looking, it returns to a state of superposition.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.

ELI5 the mechanism for the the "economic majority" to make its wishes known & relevant?

The market.

Assuming I hold 90% of all the coins mined to date (I'm economic majority), how do I go about this shit?

If you own 90% of the coins, you are the market. Obviously not realistic. In reality there are many participants, and they'll trade with one another and work it out. One fork will be worth more than the other, probably a lot more, but who knows.

90% was chosen at random. Let's say I own 5%, and keep in in cold storage, as a "store of value." How do I make my voice count?
Keep in mind, you edited out the important part:

<>If I'm just holding the coin (not solding), why do my wishes matter to the miners (I do not buy, only hodl)? To the exchanges (I do not trade, only hodl)?

According to your reasoning, by not trading (hodling the coin in cold storage), I effectively make myself irrelevant. Correct?

Hell no, holding is what gives it value.

Assuming anyone else wants to buy, they can only buy from miners which is a limited supply. Welcome moon.

If no one else wants to buy any sort of Bitcoin, then you're screwed. Same as would happen tomorrow if we woke up and no one wanted to buy Bitcoin without a fork. No guarantee that won't happen.

If you want guaranteed store of value, independent of what other people value, too fucking bad. About the best you can do is buy a chocolate bar, at least you can eat it.

Perhaps I'm not making myself clear.

You claim: "Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important [will be implemented]."
I ask: Via what mechanism?
You reply: The market, dur!
I ask: What does that mean? I hold 5%, I don't trade it, what mechanisms are available to me to make my opinion count?
Sure, I can try to sell my hodlings, but only post factum. The "economic majority" is not the BTC long-term hodlers, but the*fiat hodlers*, those willing to *buy* BTC.
The miners aren't selling BTC to me, they're selling BTC to people with fiat, those are the opinions that matter, not mine (I'm not buying, remember?)
The interests of buyers != the interests of hodlers != interests of miners.

Those same participants (fiat buyers, BTC holders/speculators, miners, merchants, users, etc.) are there now, determining the value of the coins you hold.

All of those participants will be there later, determining the value of the coins you hold.

If you disagree with the economic majority (market consensus) then by definition you trade, and thereby your opinion matters. If you don't trade, then your opinion matches the market consensus.

I'm gonna try ELY5:

I own a house (my part of the economy), one of the many houses in Bitcoinia (the economy), which, in turn, is conveniently situated below a levee.
Mayoral election coming up. Mayor A wants to nuke the levee (is Socialist, presumably), mayor B doesn't (is Ron Paul).

I ask you: How do I vote for Ron Paul, I don't want to live with communists, underwater!
You reply: Vote with your wallet. If you don't like the Mayor who gets elected, sell the house.
I sputter:  Buh...but wouldn't that be too late? My underwater house won't be worth shit, because in a socialist town! I don't want to watch the elections and leave if the commies win, I want a voice. How do I vote? You said I could, because economic majority. But clearly you didn't mean me, I could only react, sell my house when it becomes aquatic.
You: The market will take care of it, invisible hand.

@oda.krell: feel free to field this.

Ok, so you say you want another mechanism for decision making, so that the decision process is proactive instead of responding to changes that have occurred.  The question is whether such a thing is possible without being very gameable (I have no clue).
But Smooth is completely right that holding affects the market, so you shouldn't debate him on that.

[CuntChocula]

<>
I'm gonna try ELY5:

I own a house (my part of the economy), one of the many houses in Bitcoinia (the economy), which, in turn, is conveniently situated below a levee.
Mayoral election coming up. Mayor A wants to nuke the levee (is Socialist, presumably), mayor B doesn't (is Ron Paul).

I ask you: How do I vote for Ron Paul, I don't want to live with communists, underwater!
You reply: Vote with your wallet. If you don't like the Mayor who gets elected, sell the house.
I sputter:  Buh...but wouldn't that be too late? My underwater house won't be worth shit, because in a socialist town! I don't want to watch the elections and leave if the commies win, I want a voice. How do I vote? You said I could, because economic majority. But clearly you didn't mean me, I could only react, sell my house when it becomes aquatic.
You: The market will take care of it, invisible hand.

@oda.krell: feel free to field this.

Ok, so you say you want another mechanism for decision making, so that the decision process is proactive instead of responding to changes that have occurred.  The question is whether such a thing is possible without being very gameable (I have no clue).
But Smooth is completely right that holding affects the market, so you shouldn't debate him on that.

Of course hodling affects the market -- if hodlers try to dump their hodlings, the price would crash. Not disputing that, also not smooth's claim.
He claims "Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important [that's what happens]."
Do you see how that's different?

[aztecminer]

WTF just happened? Any news?

Bitcoin classic will release its code next week. Bitcoin is saved. BUY BUY BUY.

Source?

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/41qdrt/bitcoin_classic_update_email_for_subscribers_tldr/

probably why hearn is out.. oh well.. he was the one pushing for 'blockchain blacklists' .

[aztecminer]

People's Bank of China apparently is saying they may issue a digital currency. I don't know why this would be good news for Bitcoin. It's a massive potential competitor and the Commies may want to help it by discouraging Bitcoin.

Worst case scenario, they nationalize the Chinese mines for use with their currency.

maybe ability to swap between bitcoin and chinas new coin will happen.

[smooth]

I could do that myself now: make a copy of core, change the PoW formula, and presto: a hard fork happened, and the coin has split.  If the 1000 PH/s is not important, what is the difference between my bitcoin and their bitcoin?

For a start, the PoW.

After that, it depends.

Depends on what?  If the hashpower is not important, and preserving the PoW is not important, then what is the magic factor that would cause all the value to go to the CoreCoin branch instead of the CartelCoin branch? 

Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.

ELI5 the mechanism for the the "economic majority" to make its wishes known & relevant?

The market.

Assuming I hold 90% of all the coins mined to date (I'm economic majority), how do I go about this shit?

If you own 90% of the coins, you are the market. Obviously not realistic. In reality there are many participants, and they'll trade with one another and work it out. One fork will be worth more than the other, probably a lot more, but who knows.

90% was chosen at random. Let's say I own 5%, and keep in in cold storage, as a "store of value." How do I make my voice count?
Keep in mind, you edited out the important part:

<>If I'm just holding the coin (not solding), why do my wishes matter to the miners (I do not buy, only hodl)? To the exchanges (I do not trade, only hodl)?

According to your reasoning, by not trading (hodling the coin in cold storage), I effectively make myself irrelevant. Correct?

Hell no, holding is what gives it value.

Assuming anyone else wants to buy, they can only buy from miners which is a limited supply. Welcome moon.

If no one else wants to buy any sort of Bitcoin, then you're screwed. Same as would happen tomorrow if we woke up and no one wanted to buy Bitcoin without a fork. No guarantee that won't happen.

If you want guaranteed store of value, independent of what other people value, too fucking bad. About the best you can do is buy a chocolate bar, at least you can eat it.

Perhaps I'm not making myself clear.

You claim: "Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important [will be implemented]."
I ask: Via what mechanism?
You reply: The market, dur!
I ask: What does that mean? I hold 5%, I don't trade it, what mechanisms are available to me to make my opinion count?
Sure, I can try to sell my hodlings, but only post factum. The "economic majority" is not the BTC long-term hodlers, but the*fiat hodlers*, those willing to *buy* BTC.
The miners aren't selling BTC to me, they're selling BTC to people with fiat, those are the opinions that matter, not mine (I'm not buying, remember?)
The interests of buyers != the interests of hodlers != interests of miners.

Those same participants (fiat buyers, BTC holders/speculators, miners, merchants, users, etc.) are there now, determining the value of the coins you hold.

All of those participants will be there later, determining the value of the coins you hold.

If you disagree with the economic majority (market consensus) then by definition you trade, and thereby your opinion matters. If you don't trade, then your opinion matches the market consensus.

I'm gonna try ELY5:

I own a house (my part of the economy), one of the many houses in Bitcoinia (the economy), which, in turn, is conveniently situated below a levee.
Mayoral election coming up. Mayor A wants to nuke the levee (is Socialist, presumably), mayor B doesn't (is Ron Paul).

I ask you: How do I vote for Ron Paul, I don't want to live with communists, underwater!
You reply: Vote with your wallet. If you don't like the Mayor who gets elected, sell the house.
I sputter:  Buh...but wouldn't that be too late? My underwater house won't be worth shit, because in a socialist town! I don't want to watch the elections and leave if the commies win, I want a voice. How do I vote? You said I could, because economic majority. But clearly you didn't mean me, I could only react, sell my house when it becomes aquatic.
You: The market will take care of it, invisible hand.

@oda.krell: feel free to field this.

Your whole example is whack because trading markets and voting are two different things. Fail.

If there enough people (economic majority) who want a fork, the fork is going to happen, because it only takes a Gavin or a Mike or a Jon to create one and then it is up to the market whether to put value behind it or not.

If Gavin/Mike/Jon create a fork and no economic value is behind it (XT for example), the fork will wither and die, either before or after birth.

[oda.krell]

You've got to love this little market of ours... going full retard in one direction, few days later, full retard in the opposite direction.

[SnokkomBTC]

You've got to love this little market of ours... going full retard in one direction, few days later, full retard in the opposite direction.

just like the stock market oda.krell  

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[aztecminer]

Price Rising Again and it is predicted to go Beyong 403$ by 24 hours.
Time to buy guys...

maybe... i'm not going to buy though.

[CuntChocula]

I could do that myself now: make a copy of core, change the PoW formula, and presto: a hard fork happened, and the coin has split.  If the 1000 PH/s is not important, what is the difference between my bitcoin and their bitcoin?

For a start, the PoW.

After that, it depends.

Depends on what?  If the hashpower is not important, and preserving the PoW is not important, then what is the magic factor that would cause all the value to go to the CoreCoin branch instead of the CartelCoin branch?  

Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important. If it is sticking with the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. If it is firing the existing miner fleet, that's where the value ends up. There is no answer you or I can state without that information that is more correct than another.

ELI5 the mechanism for the the "economic majority" to make its wishes known & relevant?

The market.

Assuming I hold 90% of all the coins mined to date (I'm economic majority), how do I go about this shit?

If you own 90% of the coins, you are the market. Obviously not realistic. In reality there are many participants, and they'll trade with one another and work it out. One fork will be worth more than the other, probably a lot more, but who knows.

90% was chosen at random. Let's say I own 5%, and keep in in cold storage, as a "store of value." How do I make my voice count?
Keep in mind, you edited out the important part:

<>If I'm just holding the coin (not solding), why do my wishes matter to the miners (I do not buy, only hodl)? To the exchanges (I do not trade, only hodl)?

According to your reasoning, by not trading (hodling the coin in cold storage), I effectively make myself irrelevant. Correct?

Hell no, holding is what gives it value.

Assuming anyone else wants to buy, they can only buy from miners which is a limited supply. Welcome moon.

If no one else wants to buy any sort of Bitcoin, then you're screwed. Same as would happen tomorrow if we woke up and no one wanted to buy Bitcoin without a fork. No guarantee that won't happen.

If you want guaranteed store of value, independent of what other people value, too fucking bad. About the best you can do is buy a chocolate bar, at least you can eat it.

Perhaps I'm not making myself clear.

You claim: "Whatever it is that the economic majority thinks is more important [will be implemented]."
I ask: Via what mechanism?
You reply: The market, dur!
I ask: What does that mean? I hold 5%, I don't trade it, what mechanisms are available to me to make my opinion count?
Sure, I can try to sell my hodlings, but only post factum. The "economic majority" is not the BTC long-term hodlers, but the*fiat hodlers*, those willing to *buy* BTC.
The miners aren't selling BTC to me, they're selling BTC to people with fiat, those are the opinions that matter, not mine (I'm not buying, remember?)
The interests of buyers != the interests of hodlers != interests of miners.

Those same participants (fiat buyers, BTC holders/speculators, miners, merchants, users, etc.) are there now, determining the value of the coins you hold.

All of those participants will be there later, determining the value of the coins you hold.

If you disagree with the economic majority (market consensus) then by definition you trade, and thereby your opinion matters. If you don't trade, then your opinion matches the market consensus.

I'm gonna try ELY5:

I own a house (my part of the economy), one of the many houses in Bitcoinia (the economy), which, in turn, is conveniently situated below a levee.
Mayoral election coming up. Mayor A wants to nuke the levee (is Socialist, presumably), mayor B doesn't (is Ron Paul).

I ask you: How do I vote for Ron Paul, I don't want to live with communists, underwater!
You reply: Vote with your wallet. If you don't like the Mayor who gets elected, sell the house.
I sputter:  Buh...but wouldn't that be too late? My underwater house won't be worth shit, because in a socialist town! I don't want to watch the elections and leave if the commies win, I want a voice. How do I vote? You said I could, because economic majority. But clearly you didn't mean me, I could only react, sell my house when it becomes aquatic.
You: The market will take care of it, invisible hand.

@oda.krell: feel free to field this.

Your whole example is whack because trading markets and voting are two different things. Fail.

Of course they're different things. It's what grownups call an analogy. ELY5 clearly over your head, I'll shoot for ELY3, buddy.

If there enough people (economic majority) who want a fork, the fork is going to happen, because it only takes a Gavin or a Mike or a Jon to create one and then it is up to the market whether to put value behind it or not.

If Gavin/Mike/Jon create a fork and no economic value is behind it (XT for example), the fork will whither and die, either before or after birth.

Economic value for miners != economic value for hodlers ("economic majority").  Miners don't care how they make their filthy fiat, by mining 25 coins & selling those @$400, or by mining 50 coins, and selling them @$200. Hodlers care what their coins are worth tho.
Get it, Tiger?

[findftp]

Sub $300 coins around february 11th.
BFX might flash crash as low as $160 for a nanosecond
After that:



Hold your fiat.


Quote me.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Sub $300 coins around february 11th.
BFX might flash crash as low as $160 for a nanosecond
After that:



Hold your fiat.


Quote me.

Quoted

[UnDerDoG81]

Somebody needs cash huge Manipulation going on.

[Fatman3001]

@smooth you are arguing with the multi-account house troll formerly known as NotLambchops (NLC).

[Meuh6879]