Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

@BMB your flip flopping is only slightly less frustrating. Marcus might have the correct view on that.  

That one hurt.

It ain't cut and dry. Just look at Adam! He freaked out! But he got better. IDK.

[adamstgBit]

[Cconvert2G36]

@BMB your flip flopping is only slightly less frustrating. Marcus might have the correct view on that.  

That one hurt.

It ain't cut and dry. Just look at Adam! He freaked out! But he got better. IDK.

 

You do the dialectical method, and not without result...

Forgive me, (nerd)war makes monsters out of men.  

[JayJuanGee]

Here's my uneducated opinion on SegWit:

It's better than nothing. It seems like a poor design idea to make such a complicated alteration of the protocol, but it aids scaling. Seems riskier than changing a 1 to a 2, but if it works on TestNet, I'll play along.  I do not oppose SegWit and welcome it, despite it being a very poor substitute for bigger blocks.  

If there is a rough consensus attack ongoing, it means the bad guys wants us to squabble over how to scale so much that we don't scale.  They will support one side only until it looks like it's going to win and then support the other side. Even if there is not a rough consensus PsyOp, the effect is the same if we can't compromise.

I don't hate Core. I am not married to Classic. I want a scaling solution.  I'm not naive enough to think I'll get everything I want.

Should SegWit be a hard fork or a soft fork? I prefer a hard fork but I don't really care.
Should we have SegWit or 2 MB? I prefer 2MB but I don't really care.
Should we have 2MB once and see what happens or a 2-4-8 schedule? I prefer the latter, but don't care.
Should we run upgraded Core or Classic? I prefer Classic but don't really care.

Just end this crap. If we can do this, I'll close my short and help pump. If there is no solution in place and the market keeps pumping anyway, My short will blow up and I'll start liquidating my cold storage.

i think most poeple like you want some kind of scaling one way or another, they don't really care which way it gets done.
i'll admit i will go along with pretty much whatever too, until then i'll bitch and complain about what i think should be.
selling coins based on this seems a little premature, some kind of scaling is bound to happen...
i'm going to stick with my original plan to sell the news that core devs have "Done it!".
ill buy back once poeple realize we aren't out of the woods.

You've told me before that you don't ever trade all of your BTC portfolio, and I hope it's true this time, as well.

Accordingly, I hope that you are betting both ways.. rather than all or nothing.

I'm not sure if I have the definitions correct, exactly; however, at this time, I am about 93.75% long (my BTC portfolio in BTC) and about 6.25% short (my BTC portfolio in $$).

for sure i will not sell everything, But I will get more aggressive with my sells now that price is high enough for me to comfortably handle missing the mark and getting left behind, a bag full of fiat is not a terrible consolation prize... ( remember i'm targeting 750 ish )

I am similarly positioned at this time, I happen to have a few hundred dollars left on 1 exchange thats it. i went from 80% in, to 99% in last week or was it the week b4.

Sure, each of us needs to find our own comfort level that's for sure, and my time in this bitcoin investing (and more recently attempts trading) is only a couple of years for investing and only about 5 months for attempts at trading.

The movement above the $200s really helped in that regard to make it easier to sell some and to have some of the BTC investment in dollars and some in BTC.

At first when I started to sell some of my BTC, I got a little bit nervous that the price would go up, and then I don't have as many BTC.

I still get a bit nervous when the price goes up and I have some dollars in my BTC allocated funds, but I've kind of figured out a system to attempt to continuously keep a sufficient quantity of fiat in the account (in case the price goes does that I can profit), which has caused me to become less nervous regarding whether I have enough BTC (even if, perhaps, I may at some point get down to 90% BTC and the price is going up).

I am personally coming to the conclusion that a guy has really got to put these principles to practice over and over again in order to figure out his comfort level, and I am continuously learning - yet we also, from time to time, will witness in these here forums that very experienced traders will make some bad calls and allocate a bit poorly.

I personally feel that I have a fairly conservative approach, and when I attempt to teach my approach to some other people IRL, people can be stubborn as fuck.  They assert that they are attempting to follow my approach, but they revert to their own ways and they tweak and in the end, they gotta get their comfort level, and I assert that they got to get to their own place by practice and actual application.

For example, right now, I would prefer to get my portfolio closer to 95% BTC and 5%  $$  or even 96%  BTC and 4% $$; however, my other philosophy is to attempt to buy BTC on the way down and to sell BTC on the way up, so if the price of BTC goes up from here in a considerable way before I am able to buy more, then I will be forced to sell, which will cause my allocation to approach 90% BTC and 10% $$.  Not exactly preferable, but I am not going to complain when the price of BTC is going up.. and let's say if the price of BTC shoots up (like it did for the $502 upsurge), then I will have to become nervous again in deciding how much of my BTC holdings to sell...  maybe 5% or maybe 10%, but probably, unless I clearly recognize a reversal, I will err on the side of selling a low amount of BTC, just in case it goes up more.  In any event, I think that these kinds of scenarios take practice to improve reallocating on the fly and attempting not to get too nervous about it, while it's happening..

But in my thinking, you do sound quite a bit too much allocated into BTC (for my own comfort level and apparently too much for your own comfort level too, and maybe that explains some of your earlier comments of frustration?)

[adamstgBit]

Here's my uneducated opinion on SegWit:

It's better than nothing. It seems like a poor design idea to make such a complicated alteration of the protocol, but it aids scaling. Seems riskier than changing a 1 to a 2, but if it works on TestNet, I'll play along.  I do not oppose SegWit and welcome it, despite it being a very poor substitute for bigger blocks.  

If there is a rough consensus attack ongoing, it means the bad guys wants us to squabble over how to scale so much that we don't scale.  They will support one side only until it looks like it's going to win and then support the other side. Even if there is not a rough consensus PsyOp, the effect is the same if we can't compromise.

I don't hate Core. I am not married to Classic. I want a scaling solution.  I'm not naive enough to think I'll get everything I want.

Should SegWit be a hard fork or a soft fork? I prefer a hard fork but I don't really care.
Should we have SegWit or 2 MB? I prefer 2MB but I don't really care.
Should we have 2MB once and see what happens or a 2-4-8 schedule? I prefer the latter, but don't care.
Should we run upgraded Core or Classic? I prefer Classic but don't really care.

Just end this crap. If we can do this, I'll close my short and help pump. If there is no solution in place and the market keeps pumping anyway, My short will blow up and I'll start liquidating my cold storage.

i think most poeple like you want some kind of scaling one way or another, they don't really care which way it gets done.
i'll admit i will go along with pretty much whatever too, until then i'll bitch and complain about what i think should be.
selling coins based on this seems a little premature, some kind of scaling is bound to happen...
i'm going to stick with my original plan to sell the news that core devs have "Done it!".
ill buy back once poeple realize we aren't out of the woods.

You've told me before that you don't ever trade all of your BTC portfolio, and I hope it's true this time, as well.

Accordingly, I hope that you are betting both ways.. rather than all or nothing.

I'm not sure if I have the definitions correct, exactly; however, at this time, I am about 93.75% long (my BTC portfolio in BTC) and about 6.25% short (my BTC portfolio in $$).

for sure i will not sell everything, But I will get more aggressive with my sells now that price is high enough for me to comfortably handle missing the mark and getting left behind, a bag full of fiat is not a terrible consolation prize... ( remember i'm targeting 750 ish )

I am similarly positioned at this time, I happen to have a few hundred dollars left on 1 exchange thats it. i went from 80% in, to 99% in last week or was it the week b4.

Sure, each of us needs to find our own comfort level that's for sure, and my time in this bitcoin investing (and more recently attempts trading) is only a couple of years for investing and only about 5 months for attempts at trading.

The movement above the $200s really helped in that regard to make it easier to sell some and to have some of the BTC investment in dollars and some in BTC.

At first when I started to sell some of my BTC, I got a little bit nervous that the price would go up, and then I don't have as many BTC.

I still get a bit nervous when the price goes up and I have some dollars in my BTC allocated funds, but I've kind of figured out a system to attempt to continuously keep a sufficient quantity of fiat in the account (in case the price goes does that I can profit), which has caused me to become less nervous regarding whether I have enough BTC (even if, perhaps, I may at some point get down to 90% BTC and the price is going up).

I am personally coming to the conclusion that a guy has really got to put these principles to practice over and over again in order to figure out his comfort level, and I am continuously learning - yet we also, from time to time, will witness in these here forums that very experienced traders will make some bad calls and allocate a bit poorly.

I personally feel that I have a fairly conservative approach, and when I attempt to teach my approach to some other people IRL, people can be stubborn as fuck.  They assert that they are attempting to follow my approach, but they revert to their own ways and they tweak and in the end, they gotta get their comfort level, and I assert that they got to get to their own place by practice and actual application.

For example, right now, I would prefer to get my portfolio closer to 95% BTC and 5%  $$  or even 96%  BTC and 4% $$; however, my other philosophy is to attempt to buy BTC on the way down and to sell BTC on the way up, so if the price of BTC goes up from here in a considerable way before I am able to buy more, then I will be forced to sell, which will cause my allocation to approach 90% BTC and 10% $$.  Not exactly preferable, but I am not going to complain when the price of BTC is going up.. and let's say if the price of BTC shoots up (like it did for the $502 upsurge), then I will have to become nervous again in deciding how much of my BTC holdings to sell...  maybe 5% or maybe 10%, but probably, unless I clearly recognize a reversal, I will err on the side of selling a low amount of BTC, just in case it goes up more.  In any event, I think that these kinds of scenarios take practice to improve reallocating on the fly and attempting not to get too nervous about it, while it's happening..

But in my thinking, you do sound quite a bit too much allocated into BTC (for my own comfort level and apparently too much for your own comfort level too, and maybe that explains some of your earlier comments of frustration?)

trading profitably isn't hard, if you're not human!

the biggest mistake poeple make when they start trading bitcoin, is not sticking to their plan and get swept away in the emotional roller coaster.

billyjoeallen is a good trader, you know how i know, he said this:

billyjoeallen, get the fuck off the forums, and close your short!

BFX will close it for me when I get force liquidated.  

IDK where get got this kind of resolve... but this is the trade mark of a good trader.

was his call to sell 360+ good? fuck no! but reversing that position now would be MUCH worst. but its REALLY hard to accept that fact, most poeple would have covered by now.

maybe a week from now FUD will be strong again price below 400, and THEN he can think about taking a loss ( or small profit who knows ). until then it only make sense to HODL or add more to the position.

cold unfeeling calculated, thats what is required.

if you FEEL the price is going one way or another and act, your going to get #rect no matter what happens, price could range between 300-500 over and over and you will still manage to lose big.

also note he is basing his trade on a specific speculation " shit will hit the fan, when we try to scale bitcoin " not some technical chart BS.

with that speculation in mind he formulated a plan and is sticking to it, until his speculation is invalided ( in his case he leveraged  so another possibility is he "blows up." )

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

trading profitably isn't hard, if you're not human!

the biggest mistake poeple make when they start trading bitcoin, is not sticking to their plan and get swept away in the emotional roller coaster.

billyjoeallen is a good trader, you know how i know, he said this:

billyjoeallen, get the fuck off the forums, and close your short!

BFX will close it for me when I get force liquidated.  

IDK where get got this kind of resolve... but this is the trade mark of a good trader.

was his call to sell 360+ good? fuck no! but reversing that position now would be MUCH worst. but its REALLY hard to accept that fact, most poeple would have covered by now.

maybe a week from now FUD will be strong again price below 400, and THEN he can think about taking a loss ( or small profit who knows ). until then it only make sense to HODL or add more to the position.

cold unfeeling calculated, thats what is required.

if you FEEL the price is going one way or another and act, your going to get #rect no matter what happens, price could range between 300-500 over and over and you will still manage to lose big.

also note he is basing his trade on a specific speculation " shit will hit the fan, when we try to scale bitcoin " not some technical chart BS.

with that speculation in mind he formulated a plan and is sticking to it, until his speculation is invalided ( in his case he leveraged  so another possibility is he "blows up." )

I agree with you about taking out some of the guessing and the feelings, and you can also set up parameters in trading in order that no matter what you profit (or at least most scenarios - absent going to zero).

I am not claiming to be an expert trader or to have any vast experience, but I am claiming to be learning from my trading experience as I go, and I have created a fairly decent and thought out strategy that seems to work really well for me in the past 5 months. 


So, for example, if I have 100 BTC in my trading portfolio, every time BTC goes up $10, I trade an approximate percentage of my profits.  In this example profits would be $1,000 on a $10 raise in price, and I can trade 10% to 30% ($100 to $300) of those profits as the price is going up.  Then when it comes back down, I buy back, and if the price keeps going up, then the dollars are accumulating and left in my trading pool, but  because I am only selling a less than half percentage of my profits, I am always going to have enough BTC in my fund to keep profiting from price rises and to keep accumulating BTC along the way because sooner or later BTC prices are going to correct, at least somewhat.

Anyhow there can be decisions regarding how much BTC to trade, and how a guy wants to keep apportioned in his trading account (like mentioned earlier 90% or 80% or some other amount that likely fluctuates with changing market conditions), and for me it seems to make much more sense to put such BTC trading to practice rather than to consider such practices on a theoretical level.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[arklan]

thanks for the segwit reading guys. quite helpful.

421.97 pretty stable the last few hours. weren't we expecting a breakaway over 420?

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

noone gets to tell devs what they can and can't do ... you choose who you follow, the genuine or the charlatans and deceivers

You are NOT marcus agustus. So  whoever controls his account, here's what I can do. I can say either Core stops stalling or I will sell. I can follow through.

It doesn't matter if Core is sincere in thinking a settlement protocol is best or if they are being selfish and deceptive. What matters is that they want something i don't want and I don't have to play this game if I don't like the rules.

[Chef Ramsay]

noone gets to tell devs what they can and can't do ... you choose who you follow, the genuine or the charlatans and deceivers

You are NOT marcus agustus. So  whoever controls his account, here's what I can do. I can say either Core stops stalling or I will sell. I can follow through.

It doesn't matter if Core is sincere in thinking a settlement protocol is best or if they are being selfish and deceptive. What matters is that they want something i don't want and I don't have to play this game if I don't like the rules.

Or, you can chill.

[hdbuck]

noone gets to tell devs what they can and can't do ... you choose who you follow, the genuine or the charlatans and deceivers

You are NOT marcus agustus. So  whoever controls his account, here's what I can do. I can say either Core stops stalling or I will sell. I can follow through.

It doesn't matter if Core is sincere in thinking a settlement protocol is best or if they are being selfish and deceptive. What matters is that they want something i don't want and I don't have to play this game if I don't like the rules.

Or, you can cshill.

ftfy

bitcoin is no game, but if only the billyboy wanker and his alikes would rage quit as hearn did..

[billyjoeallen]

thanks for the segwit reading guys. quite helpful.

421.97 pretty stable the last few hours. weren't we expecting a breakaway over 420?

Yeah, about that....

Kinda looking like a head and shoulders pattern on the 1 HR chart.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

bitcoin is no game, but if only the billyboy wanker and his alikes would rage quit as hearn did..

We are going to make you pay more than Hearn did.  He sold at ~$300.  He's not a trader. 

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[ynef]

Guys... Is this a head and shoulders? 

[valta4065]

thanks for the segwit reading guys. quite helpful.

421.97 pretty stable the last few hours. weren't we expecting a breakaway over 420?

Seems like we went back to 415 though. But It's a good thing as long as it keeps more or less stable at this point

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation