Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitebits]

Any word on that ETF those Twinkletossers were going to set up?

They last updated it in January 2015. Most people said that it usually takes a year from the last update so I figured it would have gone through.

Maybe they shifted focus to Gemini and aren't pushing the political buttons needed to get it through.

Considering their history they don't seem to placing their bets on just one horse. I think it is unlikely they prioritize the Gemini exchange over the ETF. It could however be that the exchange was/is some kind of precondition for the ETF to become reality.

[adamstgBit]

i do believe this is potential for a big green dildo tonight.

[tomothy]

i do believe this is potential for a big green dildo tonight.

Adam, is that possible due to upcoming futures settlements? Just wondering.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

i do believe this is potential for a big green dildo tonight.

Adam, is that possible due to upcoming futures settlements? Just wondering.

Naw. Adam runs on gut instinct, like a hungry race horse.

[JayJuanGee]

I am not sure exactly my strategy if we were to have another 10x bubble in the near future because that kind of price movement, depending on whether it occurs quickly, would cause a lot of temptation to sell a lot of bitcoins; however, even with a 10x increase in the price, a person would not need to sell all of his/her bitcoins in order to take reasonable measures to protect the investment.

For example, if a person has about 100BTC, then he knows that every dollar BTC goes up, he has $100 profits.  Therefore, he could sell some of those profits and maintain the principle... There are probably as many strategies as there are people; however, I am mostly similar to you in the sense that I am attempting to accumulate overall (even though at the moment, your average BTC buy price seems to be a whole hell-a-va lot lower than mine)

When I first bought bitcoins (starting at $68) I figured I'd sell enough to recoup my original investment when the price had tripled in value.

By the peak of the spring 2013 bubble, my average price had risen to about $120 and the market price only reached $266, a hundred bucks shy. When the "dead cat" bounce took the price back up to $155 after the crash down to $50, I sold some coins and was feeling fairly smug after making a 30% profit after a crash.

It didn't take long to realize I wanted to buy more bitcoins though. Luckily I was able to buy back in for $97. Now I realize that If I sold any coins, I'd only end up buying them back again, probably at a higher price.

I happened to get lucky with my timing then but I can't count on being that lucky again. I'm not a gambler by nature (in fact I'm adamantly anti-gambling for myself) so I'll stick to the slow and safe.

Your method of accumulating and mostly holding BTC sounds totally reasonable and likely fitting for your diversification, risk tolerance, view of bitcoin, timeline and other factors that may be relevant to you (and maybe even only known by you).

Surely, there are likely a large number of BTC strategies that are going to be fitting to people, and some will be more profitable than others, others will be safer, others will be more diversification oriented and some will be more time-consuming.

Between November 2013 and September 2015, I only bought / accumulated BTC.  I did not sell any BTC during that period, and any BTC that i did sell for transactions during that time was replaced. 

Surely, each of us has various things going on in our lives and we do not necessarily feel that it is a good use of time to create complicated trading strategies in respects to bitcoin or any other crypto.. but some people possibly love that kind of activity. 

By the way, I've never really gotten too much into any cryptos other than bitcoin, so my relevant trading experience only regards bitcoin.

In about August and September 2015, I began to tweak some of my longer term BTC plans (speculating various kinds of potential BTC price rises, including considering the possibility of another 10x bubble taking place within the coming years). 

My mid-2015 tweakings and plannings around BTC got me more and more inclined towards projecting out various scenarios to both continue to accumulate BTC and to strategically cash out portions of my BTC holdings at various price points. 

In October 2015, I put plans to practice, yet in my thinking, my plans and strategies are not really gambling because they are somewhat price agnostic while assuming a long term BTC price increases.   

Surely, any snapshot of any BTC trading strategy will in part depend upon previous positions taken...   Below is more or less my current BTC/Fiat trading position (assuming that my total BTC trading portfolio ($43,000 for example) were about 100BTC (96.37%) and  about $1,600 cash (3.63%) )


BuyPrice   BTC_tobuy           $Amt_ToBuy
$368.00           0.24334848   $89.55
$374.00           0.23944449   $89.55
$382.00           0.27350160   $104.48
$389.00           0.26857998   $104.48
$394.00           0.26517160   $104.48
$402.00           0.25989456   $104.48
$407.00           0.25670175   $104.48
$410.00           0.25482344   $104.48
$412.00           0.18113317   $74.63
 


SellPrice   BTC_toSell             $amt_toSell      
$418.00           0.21423981   $89.55
$420.50           0.21296609   $89.55
$423.00           0.21170742   $89.55
$426.00           0.21021652   $89.55
$429.00           0.27832864   $119.40
$431.00           0.27703709   $119.40
$433.00           0.27575747   $119.40
$436.00           0.27386006   $119.40
$439.00           0.27198858   $119.40
$442.00           0.27014250   $119.40
$445.00           0.30186148   $134.33
$451.00           0.29784558   $134.33
$456.00           0.29457973   $134.33
$462.00           0.51689604   $238.81
$468.00           0.51026917   $238.81

[JayJuanGee]

the market looks like there will not be any big movements this week as the price is moving between 410 to 415 for the last three days.
hope that next week will bring more active movements to the btc market

people say these kinds of things all the time, and I am not sure if it is impatience, spin or not seeing the situation for what it really is.

bitcoin is like this.  Accordingly, there could be a break out (up or down) any minute... or like you suggested, it could take a few more days.... The mere fact that it has been within a small price range in recent days does not mean it is going to stay in that price range and in fact makes it more likely that it will soon break out of that price range.. either up or down.. then it could return to the price range again... lots of things can happen with the price, even if it seems that nothing is happening at the moment.

[Fatman3001]

[Euphemism=OFF] i do believe this is potential for a big green dildo tonight.

Adam, is that possible due to upcoming futures settlements? Just wondering.

Naw. Adam runs on gut instinct, like a hungry race horse.

Look more closely. Adam is going to have him a little Hulk fun.

[JayJuanGee]

i do believe this is potential for a big green dildo tonight.

Adam, is that possible due to upcoming futures settlements? Just wondering.

Naw. Adam runs on gut instinct, like a hungry race horse.

He also scares me when he proclaims these kinds of things.   

[tomothy]

the market looks like there will not be any big movements this week as the price is moving between 410 to 415 for the last three days.
hope that next week will bring more active movements to the btc market

people say these kinds of things all the time, and I am not sure if it is impatience, spin or not seeing the situation for what it really is.

bitcoin is like this.  Accordingly, there could be a break out (up or down) any minute... or like you suggested, it could take a few more days.... The mere fact that it has been within a small price range in recent days does not mean it is going to stay in that price range and in fact makes it more likely that it will soon break out of that price range.. either up or down.. then it could return to the price range again... lots of things can happen with the price, even if it seems that nothing is happening at the moment.

JJG - Wait, so... based on your current trade strategy, have you simply stopped accumulating? Now you are just strictly selling after each slight rise? I feel like I'm getting half the picture here.

And, can that coin that shall not be named just go away already? /sigh. I keep waiting for a giant drop and it keeps just not happening. Which is frustrating, because there is no reason a company would want to use that coin when they could simply copycoin their own... for free. Grr.

[dropt]

not too late, seats still available on the train.  

don't be this guy!!

Don't run into an oncoming train, even when chased by vicious Grizzly.

good catch... lol.  touché.

Clearly neither of you guys have seen a modern train before.

It's very common for the rear engine to be facing away from the direction of travel. 

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

^That one really takes me back.

[makingwin1]

the price seems to be pretty stable right now, and i can not see any bigger changes in it unfortunately

i hope that it will soon start rising significantly as we surely need some price jumps in order to attract a lot of people to use bitcoins in their everyday life

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[watashi-kokoto]

Price bumps are fine for ethereum or other alts.

It's about time for Bitcoin to be more stable.

I'm sideways bullish


wishing Ethereum two more months, and hoping for smooth decline, careful cashout to Bitcoin and many satisfied and unaware bagholders.

[watashi-kokoto]

sold my ether at 5 bucks, I regret nothing.

EDIT: I hope ether is on-topic here, due to the BTC-ETH spill over  and back we had.

[Alley]

Gemini still isn't available in all 50 States.  The ETF is probably a ways away still.

[Andre#]

Sorry for making fun of you (I couldn't resist). But average block size isn't a good metric. Empty blocks (and also soft limits) skew the result a lot, that's the reason why ChartBuddy takes that into account. Also, like in the rush hour, there are particular time windows that traffic spills over, e.g. when only 3 or 4 blocks in an hour are found. So there are isolated periods of delays, and the required fees go up and down with it. On top of that, not all wallets have good fee prediction algorithms (and some don't at all -- I think blockchain.info still uses a flat fee).

All this explains there are some users who have bad experiences, while other don't have any. If I send txs, I use my Mycelium wallet, which works like a breeze. Like you, I never have serious delays. I do sometimes pay high fees, though. My record fee has been 128 sat/B (0.000621 BTC in total) on 21 January.

But that doesn't mean that there's no capacity problem developing. Nor that there are no bad user experiences because of it. And those damage the reputation of Bitcoin. New users have to know too much of the workings of Bitcoin to protect themselves from having a bad experience. About transaction sizes, rate per byte, double checking cointape.com . It's damaging.

Saying "there's no problem (yet) -- so no need to worry" just doesn't cut it. We saw it coming for a year already, it's happening now, and it will get worse.

I believe that this particular response to me is cogent and reasonable; however, I really have concerns about placing too much weight in Chartbuddy.  I understand that Richie_T provided various explanations, but there is no meaningful explanation in the chartbuddy "explanation" link, and really, we should have some third party source like Blockchain.info that provides more specifics to be able to hone in and to get better detailed information. 

Otherwise, I remain quite unconvinced about a large amount of anectdotal whining and screaming and even admitted exaggerations that seem to be more emotional rather than factual.

Based on the evidence that I have seen to date, I remain convinced that the fulblocalypse emergency is more exaggerated than it is actual, and I am of the belief that measures, analysis and considerations currently underway, including seg wit and potential considerations regarding further changes that may be considered after the implementation of seg wit are sufficiently adequate under the current conditions and timeline. 

Yes people are hysterical and emotional and vocal and attempting to bring the price down to bring attention to their concerns, but that kind of emotional and "consumer" behavior just seems to be inadequate in proving any kind of factual point that we got some kind of emergency on our hands at the present moment, and even several months into the future.

show me some actual data that is more convincing than the main two charts on blockchain.info, and I will incorporate that data into my consideration and/or reconsideration of the matter.

Again.. for ease of reference, here are the two main charts that I find factually material to the at-hand issue .


Average blocksize
https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Median confirmation time with fees.
https://blockchain.info/charts/median-confirmation-time?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

By the way, within each of the two charts, I selected to look at the matter over the past year, but what is nice about the info contained in those charts is that you can click on various timelines in order to see the ups and downs of these average numbers in order to zoom in and to zoom out.  If blockchain.info could come up some better charts, then that would be great too, because they seem to be a pretty credible source in this space concerning various things going on in respect to the bitcoin blockchain.

Perhaps this animated graph of block size and transaction fee can show you.

http://organofcorti.blogspot.nl/2016/03/block-size-and-transaction-fee-animation.html

A more detailed (and non-animated) view:

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ze8NXBUY7Z0/VtpIeA1cFYI/AAAAAAAAFeU/Ju1kct5bWHk/s1600/post2_plot2_2016-03-05.png

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I propose we do something constructive. We're a bunch of bright guys. Let's put our heads together for a change.