Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

The halving is soon, the sensible prediction would be sideways 'ish' for a month or three. Then when the halving has had an effect we'll go to around $550-600 at least.

I guess it's possible a few whales could manipulate the price by selling a load of coins to crash the price pre halving & then buy back in before the predicted halving related rise.

Aside from that I haven't seen anything really negative that'd cause a sizeable drop.

Anybody else agree?

The halving is already priced in. Everyone knows about it, miners are prepared, it's not like it's gonna sneak up on them and shoot the price up. All the coins are already priced in. The only thing not priced in is any changes. 

Also the bollinger bands, just because the bands are tight right now doesn't mean we're going up. We can also go down, but last time the bands were this tight, we went sideways for some time.

Even if what you are saying has a 50% chance of becoming true (and that is really giving you a large benefit of the doubt), I would not wait for such a thing because it seems equally probable and even more probable to go up... .. but even given such a bear outlook, probably at minimum you should have 20% of your bitcoin allocated holdings in bitcoin, in case you are not correct.  My view is that 80-90% in bitcoin would be more prudent, but whatever, each of us have a right to our own viewpoints.

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[JayJuanGee]

Going to my local store to buy some btc.  Be right back.

In case anybody is wondering this is real.

They sent it with a fee of 0.0000678 BTC which was not enough for it to be included in the next block.  I guess people are actually using this bitcoin thing.

Yeah, every time you buy some BTC you want to tell us all about how long it takes to confirm. 

Probably better just to budget in 1-2 hours, rather than getting all chicken little excited about it for no reason.. 

Reminds me of your butty, BJA...  Oh, by the way, where has BJA been lately?  Haven't seen him around since before the Craig Wright fiasco.  Have we gotten lucky enough to rid ourselves of his sky is falling non-sense?  Probably not, because there still seem to be several stick-with-it fulblocaplypse converts continuing to preach the old dogma, and probably will continue all the way into the $600s and even into the $2,000s to suggest we are all doomed, we are doomed, etc etc.

[adamstgBit]

Going to my local store to buy some btc.  Be right back.

In case anybody is wondering this is real.

They sent it with a fee of 0.0000678 BTC which was not enough for it to be included in the next block.  I guess people are actually using this bitcoin thing.

Yeah, every time you buy some BTC you want to tell us all about how long it takes to confirm. 

Probably better just to budget in 1-2 hours, rather than getting all chicken little excited about it for no reason.. 

Reminds me of your butty, BJA...  Oh, by the way, where has BJA been lately?  Haven't seen him around since before the Craig Wright fiasco.  Have we gotten lucky enough to rid ourselves of his sky is falling non-sense?  Probably not, because there still seem to be several stick-with-it fulblocaplypse converts continuing to preach the old dogma, and probably will continue all the way into the $600s and even into the $2,000s to suggest we are all doomed, we are doomed, etc etc.

his shorts exploded...

[JayJuanGee]

If the Bitcoin exchange rate roughly doubles every 3 years due to halving (and hashrate rises in lockstep) and continues to do so for the next two decades, then its ROI rate will literally spank *every* other known investment in the world today that's been around for at least 7+ years or longer.

But of course the 'get rich quick' crowd won't or refuse to believe it, and will gladly part ways with their money on other scams and too-good-to-be-true "investments".

Conversely, if ETH exchange rate ...goes up by 1600%, what's the word I'm looking for? watevs, if ETH exchange rate increases roughly 16-fold every 5 months, and continues to do so for the next two decades, then its ROI rate will literally spank *every* other known investment in the world today that's been around for at least 7+ years or longer.

My stupid hypothetical more profitable than your stupid hypothetical. I win. brb, ether.

ETH hasn't been around for 7+ years yet. In fact let's talk in just 12 months, when I'm sure the ETH price will be MUCH MUCH lower than it is right now.  Many orders of magnitude lower in fact.  Because ETH = SCAM.

No, ETH hasn't been around for 7 years, what's your point?
Not sure where you get the "roughly doubling every 3 years." In the first three years, BTC price has gone up by roughly infinity, as it does with all cryptos.  In the following three, price went up to $1200, fell back to ~160, and recovered to 440 where it is now.
So "roughly doubles every 3 years"? Explain that shit.

it appears to roughly 10X every 3 years  

this time its different
this time its going to 100X

32,000$

Wowzie, wowzie... We're back on track for $32k... Yipppppppeeeeee!!!!!

There are probably several ways to slice bitcoin's price history, and I doubt that it can be characterized as linear.. and there is a possibility for another exponential growth period, and who knows the odds for such...

I will grant that we do seem to be in a very decent place that increases the odds for another exponential growth period, but, yeah, how much of one? how fast? and how far? and history remains only a small piece of such a speculative prediction puzzle.  

If we look at history, from which price point to which price point are we gonna select in order to make our claim about past growth?   For example:  From mid 2010 to present the growth has been 8,860x - yet I understand that number to be a bit skewed because the starting point is close to zero... but if we go from June 2011 to present the growth is about 15x  (but I would suggest that from 2011 to present the more representative growth rate would be about 45x from $10 to $450), and maybe only history will be able to tell us which portions of the growth curve are more representative and which parts are anomalies.

Here are the approximate price points:

In much of 2009 and early 2010, bitcoin was virtually free to those in the "right circles"  = $0

Starting in mid 2010, BTC was traded for around    = $.05

January 2011  = $.30

June 2011 =  $30

January 2012  = $5

January 2013  = $14

April 2013 = $260

July 2013 = $70

November 2013   = $1,200

January 2015  = $320

A large majority of 2015 = $180 to $300    (Mostly $230 to $260)

April 20, 2016 to May 20, 2016   = $435 to $470

 

[JayJuanGee]

Going to my local store to buy some btc.  Be right back.

In case anybody is wondering this is real.

They sent it with a fee of 0.0000678 BTC which was not enough for it to be included in the next block.  I guess people are actually using this bitcoin thing.

Yeah, every time you buy some BTC you want to tell us all about how long it takes to confirm.  

Probably better just to budget in 1-2 hours, rather than getting all chicken little excited about it for no reason..  

Reminds me of your butty, BJA...  Oh, by the way, where has BJA been lately?  Haven't seen him around since before the Craig Wright fiasco.  Have we gotten lucky enough to rid ourselves of his sky is falling non-sense?  Probably not, because there still seem to be several stick-with-it fulblocaplypse converts continuing to preach the old dogma, and probably will continue all the way into the $600s and even into the $2,000s to suggest we are all doomed, we are doomed, etc etc.

his shorts exploded...

hahahaha

kinda looks like this?

[dumbfbrankings]

Dat volume on battle for $440 gentlemen, rather remarkable.

(Who else isn't surprised that JJG likes Professional Wrestling, and the exposed asses of men?) 

[Fatman3001]

Dat volume on battle for $440 gentlemen, rather remarkable.

(Who else isn't surprised that JJG likes Professional Wrestling, and the exposed asses of men?) 

Hey, now. That's his one redeeming feature.

[Fatman3001]

Dat volume on battle for $440 gentlemen, rather remarkable.

(Who else isn't surprised that JJG likes Professional Wrestling, and the exposed asses of men?) 

Peonminer and Jacksomethingsomething is here. We're up for a pump.

[r0ach]

[pariahbit]

^^
BTC is for BTCeanies

[korila]

change BTC to ETH ~

[nioc]

Going to my local store to buy some btc.  Be right back.

In case anybody is wondering this is real.

They sent it with a fee of 0.0000678 BTC which was not enough for it to be included in the next block.  I guess people are actually using this bitcoin thing.

Yeah, every time you buy some BTC you want to tell us all about how long it takes to confirm. 

Probably better just to budget in 1-2 hours, rather than getting all chicken little excited about it for no reason.. 

Reminds me of your butty, BJA...  Oh, by the way, where has BJA been lately?  Haven't seen him around since before the Craig Wright fiasco.  Have we gotten lucky enough to rid ourselves of his sky is falling non-sense?  Probably not, because there still seem to be several stick-with-it fulblocaplypse converts continuing to preach the old dogma, and probably will continue all the way into the $600s and even into the $2,000s to suggest we are all doomed, we are doomed, etc etc.

1) not every time I buy btc just when it happens which is not often and only twice out of the dozens of transactions that occurred in the last couple of months.  The first one was a payment where the sender for some reason used a standard fee on a transaction that was ~20 bigger than normal for whatever reason.  This time it took 3 blocks for the fee stated which as I said means people are actually using btc because this indicated to me that it was not "spam" transactions that were filling the blocks.  Yes btc actually gets used and I actually find it useful not merely speculative.

2) I don't believe I get chicken little excited about it, don't know how you came to that conclusion.  I merely state facts with what I believe is little to no spin.  Just because I am involved in the coin of my signature (unpaid it is) doesn't mean I will try to put btc in a negative light.

3) BJA my "butty"?  Don't believe I ever engaged him.  Could be wrong about that.  Right, wrong or spin I must admit I did like his postings.

4)  You have inspired me to make a longer and more detailed post tah is usual for me.   

[dumbfbrankings]

2) I don't believe I get chicken little excited about it, don't know how you came to that conclusion... 

That’s just JJG being an insufferable twat, as per usual. He’s really concerned with keeping decentralization intact by crippling the throughput of the network… while keeping all his coins in a centralized exchange. You’d have better results explaining your position to a brick wall.

[pariahbit]

Nah, you'll be nice. Nice like a kitten.

Kitten's dead, baby, kitten's dead.

Excuse, one question, westerner: That General Tso's chicken takeout taste good? Good, that was your cat. Yeah, we fed you your cat. Idiot.

[nioc]

2) I don't believe I get chicken little excited about it, don't know how you came to that conclusion... 

That’s just JJG being an insufferable twat, as per usual. He’s really concerned with keeping decentralization intact by crippling the throughput of the network… while keeping all his coins in a centralized exchange. You’d have better results explaining your position to a brick wall.

And where do you keep your btc?

[DaRude]

2) I don't believe I get chicken little excited about it, don't know how you came to that conclusion... 

That’s just JJG being an insufferable twat, as per usual. He’s really concerned with keeping decentralization intact by crippling the throughput of the network… while keeping all his coins in a centralized exchange. You’d have better results explaining your position to a brick wall.

Yes, i couldn't have said it better. NLC how many captchas do you go through each day to create new accounts? Are you trying to see if there's a limit to my ignore list?

[JayJuanGee]

1) not every time I buy btc just when it happens which is not often and only twice out of the dozens of transactions that occurred in the last couple of months.  The first one was a payment where the sender for some reason used a standard fee on a transaction that was ~20 bigger than normal for whatever reason.  This time it took 3 blocks for the fee stated which as I said means people are actually using btc because this indicated to me that it was not "spam" transactions that were filling the blocks.  Yes btc actually gets used and I actually find it useful not merely speculative.

Fair enough.  It surely does seem like fees and transaction times are going to be a bit of an ongoing moving target, and a lot of us are continuing to learn through our experiences about this.  Yes, likely a growing pain of bitcoin, and it's possible that down the road newbies to bitcoin are going to receive more hand-holding, though that may still be quite a ways down the road, because even within bitcoin there remain a lot of various user interfaces and developers who are continuing to attempt to build better and more compelling interfaces.... even within some big player production, there's ongoing and continued innovation - take for example, Coinbase recently announcing that it is going to begin to exchange ether and litecoin and to rebrand itself... Yeah, coinbase is a pretty big player, and they are still trying to find themselves exactly in terms of what they offer and their interface with worldwide customers, including adding additional countries and offerings.

2) I don't believe I get chicken little excited about it, don't know how you came to that conclusion.  I merely state facts with what I believe is little to no spin.  Just because I am involved in the coin of my signature (unpaid it is) doesn't mean I will try to put btc in a negative light.

Maybe I am exaggerating the intent of your post a little bit, but I did get the sense that on more than one occasion you seemed to be overly anxious to post about your transaction and then to have higher than necessary expectations and then seemingly jump to various conclusions based on what I would consider to be higher than necessary expectations that were a long a theme that others seemed to be playing as well.  I.e asserting blocks are too full, the transactions are taking too much time, the fees are too much (and difficult to determine)...

So my assertion regarding chicken little is that it seems unnecessary to get overly excited and even with incomplete information.

3) BJA my "butty"?  Don't believe I ever engaged him.  Could be wrong about that.  Right, wrong or spin I must admit I did like his postings.

I wasn't claiming that you actually were engaging with him, but if your posts were along the same lines as his I was at least suggesting some kind of symbiotic connection

4)  You have inspired me to make a longer and more detailed post tah is usual for me.   

Welcome to the wall of text club.       

[JayJuanGee]

2) I don't believe I get chicken little excited about it, don't know how you came to that conclusion...

That’s just JJG being an insufferable twat, as per usual. He’s really concerned with keeping decentralization intact by crippling the throughput of the network… while keeping all his coins in a centralized exchange. You’d have better results explaining your position to a brick wall.

I wished that there was a like button....


Hey Theymos, can you get us a "like" button... in order that I don't have to respond to the post of this dipwadd, aka dumbfbrankings?    

[adamstgBit]

i'm running windows 10

its weird.

[adamstgBit]