Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[r0ach]

In your subjective opinion... when does it get high? 25 cents, 50, $1 for one of the smallest transactions you can make?

Since most people in the speculation section are morons, let me explain it for you.  Even if you raised the block size to 8MB, that would only allow Bitcoin to have market penetration as a checkbook type device for large value transactions in middle/upper middle class, first world nations of around $10,000 transactions and higher.  There is absolutely no fucking room whatsoever on anything that uses a blockchain for microtransactions.  

Even with 8MB blocks, fees would still be high and you'd only use it for huge transactions.  The only people doing transactions on the blockchain will be rich people, or financial entities doing settlement transactions.  Anyone not doing high value transactions will be pushed to off-chain solutions, or second tier networks of Bitcoin like Lightning Network where you can do all the  cheap microtransactions you want.

You will never have microtransactions directly on chain.  You will never have cheap transactions while using a blockchain either.  They're only suitable for high value transactions.

My car will never go 300 MPH, and would break if it somehow could. Does that mean I should keep a speed limiter in place to keep it under 10 MPH?

Invalid example.  Not everyone on the planet has to pay for your gas (verification).

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[toknormal]

there's a fixed supply of coins
there's a variable but fairly stable trend on demand for coins
and there's speculation as to the future demand for coins

Ok Mr Adam Varoufakis.

I'll accept your theory into the coinomics hall of fame and candidature for potential decentralised monetary policy even though I don't agree with it and we'll just see if it works out.

I suppose there's enough voodoo logic in the current system to make anything look good so you never know.

In the meantime at least it looks like it might be worth the price, whether its stable or not  

[toknormal]

But isn't the correction is over ? As I see we've started to go up again.

No. It's still in progress. (The bicycle pedal can be going up, even when the bike's going down a hill. What you're seeing is just the pedal, the bike has not yet really confirmed it's changed trajectory).

[Fakhoury]

But isn't the correction is over ? As I see we've started to go up again.

No. It's still in progress. (The bicycle pedal can be going up, even when the bike's going down a hill. What you're seeing is just the pedal, the bike has not yet really confirmed it's changed trajectory).

Good example, respect

How will we know if the correction has ended or not ?

[dumbfbrankings]

In your subjective opinion... when does it get high? 25 cents, 50, $1 for one of the smallest transactions you can make?

Since most people in the speculation section are morons, let me explain it for you.  Even if you raised the block size to 8MB, that would only allow Bitcoin to have market penetration as a checkbook type device for large value transactions in middle/upper middle class, first world nations of around $10,000 transactions and higher.  There is absolutely no fucking room whatsoever on anything that uses a blockchain for microtransactions.  

Even with 8MB blocks, fees would still be high and you'd only use it for huge transactions.  The only people doing transactions on the blockchain will be rich people, or financial entities doing settlement transactions.  Anyone not doing high value transactions will be pushed to off-chain solutions, or second tier networks of Bitcoin like Lightning Network where you can do all the  cheap microtransactions you want.

You will never have microtransactions directly on chain.  You will never have cheap transactions while using a blockchain either.  They're only suitable for high value transactions.

My car will never go 300 MPH, and would break if it somehow could. Does that mean I should keep a speed limiter in place to keep it under 10 MPH?

Invalid example.  Not everyone on the planet has to pay for your gas (verification).

And not everyone on the planet has to run a node.

You're thinking like a monopolist again. The first mover advantage is not a sufficient barrier to competition from cars that do 20-30 MPH.

I remember you used to write somewhat coherently on raising the blocksize, if not everything else, what happened? Drank too deeply from Gregory's cup?

[DARKHOLDER]

But isn't the correction is over ? As I see we've started to go up again.

No. It's still in progress. (The bicycle pedal can be going up, even when the bike's going down a hill. What you're seeing is just the pedal, the bike has not yet really confirmed it's changed trajectory).

Good example, respect

How will we know if the correction has ended or not ?

Well see what happened after 1-2 hour when china waking up..

[matt4054]

How will we know if the correction has ended or not ?

Well see what happened after 1-2 hour when china waking up..

Does China ever sleep anyway?

[savetherainforest]

But isn't the correction is over ? As I see we've started to go up again.

No. It's still in progress. (The bicycle pedal can be going up, even when the bike's going down a hill. What you're seeing is just the pedal, the bike has not yet really confirmed it's changed trajectory).

Good example, respect

How will we know if the correction has ended or not ?

Usually when the cone ends we get a decisive move. For now ... It will probably take at least another day of prices between 680 < - > 690 till they make a decision. Unless a whale intervenes and speeds things up or slows them down.  

[JayJuanGee]

there's a fixed supply of coins
there's a variable but fairly stable trend on demand for coins
and there's speculation as to the future demand for coins

Ok Mr Adam Varoufakis.

I'll accept your theory into the coinomics hall of fame and candidature for potential decentralised monetary policy even though I don't agree with it and we'll just see if it works out.

I suppose there's enough voodoo logic in the current system to make anything look good so you never know.

In the meantime at least it looks like it might be worth the price, whether its stable or not  

Of course, it is worth the price, yet we have to consider these kinds of assessments as bitcoin's market cap goes up... and that is if it continues to go up.

Accordingly, if we are at a bit over $10billion market cap, a lot of volatility matters are going to be worked out, in the event that bitcoin's market cap goes to $1trillion or $10 trillion or $100trillion.

Of course, the level of volatility and ability to manipulate is going to be different in each of these possible market cap scenarios, and likely also, there remains a lot of known unknowns and unknown unknowns that are going to affect how a lot of this volatility and price manipulation plays out which also depends upon if we go up in price and market cap, how far and how fast.

[toknormal]

How will we know if the correction has ended or not ?

Well, first of all, there's not really such a thing as "THE" correction. Each chart range has its own definition of a correction. So for example, as you already observed, the shorter range charts have completed their "correction" and are in the green. But their cycles are so short that they don't really count for most people. You're probably thinking of a timescale in terms of a few days (e.g. the last big rise lasted a few days and the subsequent correction has lasted a couple of days). So the chart that corresponds to that sort of timescale would be the 4-hour or the 6-hour.

Secondly, every trader has their preferred indicators that they give different priorities to depending on what type of stock they're trading, the nature of the market, timescales, volatility etc.

In the bitcoin market, I tend to use momentum indicators at short ranges and volume at long ranges (for example On Balance Volume which I find is useless on a day to day basis but very informative on a month to month basis).

So in conclusion my own definition of "when the current correction has ended" (which is purely subjective - other people will have other definitions) is when the 4-Hour MACD indicator shows that selling momentum is exhausted at that particular chart range.

Thats when this little indicator's red bars get shorter and start turning green again...



So you see how the blue and brown lines are still quite parallel ? That shows that the market is still being driven down at that chart range (it's being driven up at lower order ranges - shorter timescales). However, the histogram shows that the lines are starting to converge which means the rate of selling is slowing, even though it's still being driven down. When the blue line crosses the brown, the buy and sell momentum have reached equilibrium and many traders pick a chart range to trade and go long at that point.

It's not bullet proof though. It's just one indicator. Sometimes you get a double dip right at the crossover point and you get a huge cash-out instead. That can happen if trading sentiment reverses and shorters use the crossover point to anticipate maximum liquidity into which to dump. Right now, with halving coming up and stuff, I don't really see that happening but you know what these markets are like, anything can happen  

[adamstgBit]

there's a fixed supply of coins
there's a variable but fairly stable trend on demand for coins
and there's speculation as to the future demand for coins

Ok Mr Adam Varoufakis.

I'll accept your theory into the coinomics hall of fame and candidature for potential decentralised monetary policy even though I don't agree with it and we'll just see if it works out.

I suppose there's enough voodoo logic in the current system to make anything look good so you never know.

In the meantime at least it looks like it might be worth the price, whether its stable or not  

my theory will be put the to test before bitcoin actually becomes currency used world wide

in <2 years the market will have more or less saturated as an alternative to gold + a remittance tool, once speculators feel the market is fully saturated and the pump and dump is over and we appear to have found a "fair price" ( 32,000$ / bitcoin )
Then speculators will begin to do as i described, they will expect bitcoin to grow at roughly 5% a year and you will see that price of 1 BTC will become VERY stable while its actual demand varies significantly month to month.

after a few years of this very stable price, we will know we are ready to for the decentralization of world domination and one last mega bubble targeting 5 million / coins will materialize.

[inca]

In your subjective opinion... when does it get high? 25 cents, 50, $1 for one of the smallest transactions you can make?

Since most people in the speculation section are morons, let me explain it for you.  Even if you raised the block size to 8MB, that would only allow Bitcoin to have market penetration as a checkbook type device for large value transactions in middle/upper middle class, first world nations of around $10,000 transactions and higher.  There is absolutely no fucking room whatsoever on anything that uses a blockchain for microtransactions.  

Even with 8MB blocks, fees would still be high and you'd only use it for huge transactions.  The only people doing transactions on the blockchain will be rich people, or financial entities doing settlement transactions.  Anyone not doing high value transactions will be pushed to off-chain solutions, or second tier networks of Bitcoin like Lightning Network where you can do all the  cheap microtransactions you want.

You will never have microtransactions directly on chain.  You will never have cheap transactions while using a blockchain either.  They're only suitable for high value transactions.

Everyone here knows that raising the blocksize to 2, 4 or 8mb does not solve bitcoin's scaling problems. What it does provide is a can-kick and delay things to allow more mature and well thought out solutions to be implemented such as lightning.

This is about providing a network in this moment which can absorb current transaction demand and function to allow new users and increased transaction volume without suffering decreased network performance.

Most ardent big blockers would be happy with layer 2.0 solutions eventually. In fact they are a necessity over the longer term. But artificially constraining blockspace now risks a jettison of speculative value to other chains or from crypto entirely. And for what? To allow some developers to keep control of an open source software client?

[Ted E. Bare]

How will we know if the correction has ended or not ?

Well, first of all...

That's a very good explanation toknormal. Good work.

[adamstgBit]

volume is dieing down.

time to PUMP it up another 20%

[r0ach]

I remember you used to write somewhat coherently on raising the blocksize, if not everything else, what happened? Drank too deeply from Gregory's cup?

You are arguing for microtransactions when it's impossible to have microtransactions on a blockchain.  Yes, 5 cent and 20 cent transactions are still cheap because even if you raised blocksize 10x higher, the transaction fee would still eventually become so high that only $10,000 transactions and more would be valid even with 8-10MB blocks.  The only thing that would allow you to do microtransactions is a second tier system like Lightning Network or off-chain solutions like Circle and Coinbase debit cards.  Anything directly on chain will always be expensive.

In short, you make no valid points because you are arguing for microtransactions directly on-chain when it's not possible.

[RGR991]

Nice churn down here around the 680-700 level, an important area from 2014...should see the spike to 900-990 soon..Then the real pullback will begin..

[Jord33]

The blockchains down, wtf....

[r0ach]

The blockchains down, wtf....

Jew banker shills have sunk to an all new low of desperation attempts in disinfo tactics.

[toknormal]

The blockchains down, wtf....

Working superb actually.

http://blockchain.info

[dumbfbrankings]

I remember you used to write somewhat coherently on raising the blocksize, if not everything else, what happened? Drank too deeply from Gregory's cup?

You are arguing for microtransactions when it's impossible to have microtransactions on a blockchain.  Yes, 5 cent and 20 cent transactions are still cheap because even if you raised blocksize 10x higher, the transaction fee would still eventually become so high that only $10,000 transactions and more would be valid even with 8-10MB blocks.  The only thing that would allow you to do microtransactions is a second tier system like Lightning Network or off-chain solutions like Circle and Coinbase debit cards.  Anything directly on chain will always be expensive.

In short, you make no valid points because you are arguing for microtransactions directly on-chain when it's not possible.

Quote where I argued that microtransactions should be on-chain. Oh, I didn't, you just erected a straw man.

My argument is that the only people who should be setting pricing for block space are the producers of that space, the miners. You argue that production quotas determined by an infallible priesthood of blockstream devs are the only thing protecting Bitcoin from inevitable collapse.

Free market capitalism vs central planning by corrupt technocrats... My... how Bitcoiners have changed.