Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[spooderman]

in case anyone is looking for a reason

BREXIT

my conclusion is that if brexit happens, resources for things like bitcoin will dry up.

an ill wind blows nobody any good.

[dumbfbrankings]

Compact blocks and a few other improvements may allow us to move to 4-8MB block size capacities. (segwit + 2MB , or segwit + 4MB)

Interesting suggestions from theymos that other core devs agree with -

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4paju2/wladimir_van_der_laan_has_just_merged_compact/d4jjr3j

Also interesting how herr theymos' comments come on the day that "fully regulated" (eww) Circle Financial put people’s transactions in indeterminate limbo because of "spam-level" 40 sat/byte fees.

Especially interesting when miners already use blue blockstream matt’s relay network instead of compact blocks, making this whole "compact blocks allow segwit's 4MB attack surface" mantra utter BS.

Would it be wrong to say that the “totally unpredictable” collapse in BTC price started the day Core Media stated that segwit would be coming april july 7th without the 2MB non-witness data HF for 2017 activation that was promised to miners at the HK meeting? Maybe... though I remember the same dastardly things being said (and made into charts) about Classic.

[shmadz]

Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

New equipment is coming out from bitmain https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK0654

Electricity cost based on that unit is only like 100 bucks per coin, http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1500.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=209453158595.38100000&r=25.00000000&er=674.90000000

Realistically, I would put a guess around the 400 to 600 range after the halving, no reason to be over 800 max...

Personally, I'm quite happy to see some rationality this time around,

"As low as possible for as long as possible."

Thanks for the hook-up on the calculator and the new info on the AntMiner.

I like "as low as possible for as long as possible." When it got to $700 I felt some FOMO kicking in, but wisely didn't buy in then, or at all.

After playing around with the calculators, after the Halvening drops the reward to 12.5, it looks like one could be reasonably satisfied mining 0.5 BTC per month with one of those AntMiners. They're sold out, but w/e, this is all just speculation anyway.

If I was hooked up to a pool and paid a 4% fee, then after paying power costs I'd be looking at around 0.33 BTC per month in profit. That's about 4 BTC per year for one machine. With the cost of a machine ATM being 4.218 BTC, it looks like it'd take about 13 months to ROI into the black. But then that doesn't take into account what happens to the difficulty over time, so...hmm.

My approximation then is that for BTC to be even remotely profitable, my thinking is that BTC's price needs to be higher than $100. Much higher. Even 5x higher. Am I mistaken? Maybe I don't have enough insight.

 you can't place any confidence in those long-term predictions. anything more than a couple months out is worse than speculation, that's just dreaming. if there is profit to be had, then the hash rate will increase up until the point where it wipes out those profits. also if you're consistently pulling 1500 W from a 15 amp 110 V plug you will burn out more than just your miner, you'll have sockets overheating and melting down, circuit breakers will be breaking, etc...

 I guess the real point I'm trying to make is that if there is profit to be made
 then that profit margin will be filled by increased competition and your profits will disappear, eventually. if you can get your hands on that latest gear you might do okay for about six months but you better make enough during that time to pay off your expenditure PLUS enough profit to outlay the risk and your own time, not to mention the extreme heat and noise...

[shmadz]

Compact blocks and a few other improvements may allow us to move to 4-8MB block size capacities. (segwit + 2MB , or segwit + 4MB)

Interesting suggestions from theymos that other core devs agree with -

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4paju2/wladimir_van_der_laan_has_just_merged_compact/d4jjr3j

Also interesting how herr theymos' comments come on the day that "fully regulated" (eww) Circle Financial put people’s transactions in indeterminate limbo because of "spam-level" 40 sat/byte fees.

Especially interesting when miners already use blue blockstream matt’s relay network instead of compact blocks, making this whole "compact blocks allow segwit's 4MB attack surface" mantra utter BS.

Would it be wrong to say that the “totally unpredictable” collapse in BTC price started the day Core Media stated that segwit would be coming april july 7th without the 2MB non-witness data HF for 2017 activation that was promised to miners at the HK meeting? Maybe... though I remember the same dastardly things being said (and made into charts) about Classic.

So you don't attribute any weight to the fact that bitcoin was trading at double the cost of production? It's all about blocksize debate?

[dumbfbrankings]

Compact blocks and a few other improvements may allow us to move to 4-8MB block size capacities. (segwit + 2MB , or segwit + 4MB)

Interesting suggestions from theymos that other core devs agree with -

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4paju2/wladimir_van_der_laan_has_just_merged_compact/d4jjr3j

Also interesting how herr theymos' comments come on the day that "fully regulated" (eww) Circle Financial put people’s transactions in indeterminate limbo because of "spam-level" 40 sat/byte fees.

Especially interesting when miners already use blue blockstream matt’s relay network instead of compact blocks, making this whole "compact blocks allow segwit's 4MB attack surface" mantra utter BS.

Would it be wrong to say that the “totally unpredictable” collapse in BTC price started the day Core Media stated that segwit would be coming april july 7th without the 2MB non-witness data HF for 2017 activation that was promised to miners at the HK meeting? Maybe... though I remember the same dastardly things being said (and made into charts) about Classic.

So you don't attribute any weight to the fact that bitcoin was trading at double the cost of production? It's all about blocksize debate?

Not really, this was the halving pump. Take a look at litecoin for how those work.

Altho, I've learned from the best... the means justify the righteous ends, apparently, right? Like moderation... funny word that.

[r0ach]

Not really, this was the halving pump. Take a look at litecoin for how those work.

The BTC price peaks post halving, not pre-halving.

Anyone with an IQ over 2 can look at your post history and May 2016 join date and see you're a paid anti-bitcoin shill account.  Keep rubbing your rat claws together fantasizing about the clanging of shekels from your jew banker overlords.

[pleaseexplainagain]

Any idea how much it costs to mine a coin these days, just before the Halvening?

Curious because I'd like to know what a realistic floor for the price would be based on how much it costs to actually mine a coin.

New equipment is coming out from bitmain https://www.bitmaintech.com/productDetail.htm?pid=0002016052907243375530DcJIoK0654

Electricity cost based on that unit is only like 100 bucks per coin, http://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator/?h=14000.00&p=1500.00&pc=0.10&pf=0.00&d=209453158595.38100000&r=25.00000000&er=674.90000000

Realistically, I would put a guess around the 400 to 600 range after the halving, no reason to be over 800 max...

Personally, I'm quite happy to see some rationality this time around,

"As low as possible for as long as possible."

I think it should be assumed that for some big miners the cost of electricity is close to zero ie through a range of deals and connections and under the table profit sharing (corruption) they are in reality paying nothing.so the cost to make a bitcoin is more down to the roi on equipment and even then some equipment may be bought using regional or state funding/incentives. My guess the cost produce a bitcoin maybe just $100-$200.

[JayJuanGee]

So at what point can we call this a crash instead of just a "bullish correction"?  lol

Obviously everything from 430 onward was a complete lie.

Are you continuing to act like these are not your own thoughts that you are typing?

Ridiculous.

If a guy played the situation correctly, a lot of money was made between $430 and $778, and even so, prices still remain quite a bit above $430 (as I type $570).  That's about a 33% appreciation.  Nothing to sneeze at.

[marcus_of_augustus]

My guess the cost produce a bitcoin maybe just $100-$200.

my guess is you don't know shit about cost of production, icbw

[Karartma1]

Mornings have been better than this one. Really not nice to see red everywhere. In the last 7 days there has been a -20% change regarding the price.

And I am very curious to see whether the BREXIT vote will affect the market or not

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Only if you can pay out your nose for it. (Sort of ironic, I guess.)

I don't live in a gated community and there are all different income demographics that live here from those that earn around 5k a year to multimillionares. Many that make 5-10k a year here have a better quality of life than those that make 30-40k in the US as well. You guys need to travel more and try and understand different cultures. I have lived in many countries and certainly don't ever care about returning to the US where I briefly lived for a few years .

If this crash keeps crashing I may have to consider it.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I think 540-555 might have been the bottom, the only thing bothering me is the fact that BFX longs are still so high...

[toknormal]

We're only back to where we were a couple of weeks ago.

As long as it doesn't turn into a long term bear market where that was the turning point - the final high of bitcoin EVER - and where it drifts down to zero from here, we'll be ok  

[barbs]

I'm looking forward to the second spike that always comes after the big dump (tm)

[SnokkomBTC]

I'm looking forward to the second spike that always comes after the big dump (tm)

you mean something like 680-720? Then down and sideways, before forming triangle?

[DARKHOLDER]

This b better go back up right above 700 soon enough.

is this still correction? 

[uncaer9]

look chinese demand and chinese buy wall is very strong. i think we can back to $700 in nextday

[SnokkomBTC]

and down again...

[Ted E. Bare]

... no, that was yesterday. Today is back up to 650.

[Hyperjacked]

see y'all in 2020, bitches. don't forget to hang cool until then.

Cheers m8

Rock on...