Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[marcus_of_augustus]

[travwill]

The next President, Trump, is about to speak.  Bitcoin will explode upward during/after his speech!  ;-)

[respawn2]

You used the Molasses Disaster already. Like a year ago I think...  

It should be used by everyone, at least once a year. 21 people died needlessly [and very slowly -ed]. Swept [very slowly -ed] beneath a [very slow -ed] 40-foot wave of molasses.

The Great Molasses Disaster Memorial Day used to be a US national holiday, until the government renamed it Martin Luther King day as a part of a backroom deal with Equal Rights Agitators back in the 60s. That's a shame, because like Future President Trump once said, those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

You used the Molasses Disaster already. Like a year ago I think...  

It should be used by everyone, at least once a year. 21 people died needlessly [and very slowly -ed]. Swept [very slowly -ed] beneath a [very slowly -ed] 40-foot wave of molasses.

The Great Molasses Disaster Memorial Day was a US national holiday, until the government renamed it Martin Luther King day as a part of a backroom deal with Equal Rights Agitators back in the 60s. That's a shame, because like Future President Trump once said, those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.

I like the way you work it. No diggity. I got to bag it up.

[chesthing]

Trump has a 25% chance at being pres. When Clinton wins what does that mean for the bitcorn?

[marcus_of_augustus]

Trump has a 25% chance at being pres. When Clinton wins what does that mean ... ?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=11679253 Buy a ticket to win an Island.?

[bitChipper]

Price seems to have lost a lot of steam. Sideways for months again maybe? Which wouldn't be bad thought if we can keep these levels without major dumping action.

At least from an investor point of view.
As a active trader this is horrible.

Agreed, boring sideways action since the halving. A lot of people felt the halving was a big let down albeit the huge gains from the start of 2016. Kinda shows how people anticipate movement in bitcoin ya know?

"well geez it's bitcoin its gotta go up 10x!"

Having said that I will admit I am a hypocrite and I expect price to go up substantially in the coming months. Wasn't that the way the last halving went? Small gains around the actual halving followed by huge spikes later on?

[nioc]

determinism says that, that the past, present, and future is identifiable as an unbreakable chain of circumstances of which no single link in such a chain could possibly be avoided or altered. so if there was a entity that knew everything about everything he could predict the future, because for any one moment there is only ONE possible physical further moment.
- The Truth

and so i say:


Existence precedes essence, but the the truth precedes all.

Unfortunately, quantum mechanics and a hundred years of thought and experimentation have laid waste to determinism in the way you're thinking.
At any 'point' in time, there are many future possible outcomes for the next closest future 'point' in time. All outcomes have known probabilities. One such outcome is randomly chosen from an observer's point of view.
That is true randomness btw - not just a lack of information.

does it really make any difference if the next possible outcome is chosen by true randomness or a predetermined set of random?
the end result is the same, we get an immutable chain of events which no one can really control.
i guess your suggestion that the future cannot be predicted because of the true randomness factor.
it would be interesting to understand how they have determined that true randomness actually exists...

not sure what you mean by a 'predetermined set of random', but I'll assume  you mean a fixed probability distribution .
Either way, the outcome is not as you said: 'for any one moment there is only ONE possible physical further moment.'

The rest of it is interesting but not where I intended to go in a bitcoin trading thread.
FYI, I'm in the everett many worlds interpretation camp, if that helps ya.

Then surely you know of Sean Carroll

[harrymmmm]

The rest of it is interesting but not where I intended to go in a bitcoin trading thread.
FYI, I'm in the everett many worlds interpretation camp, if that helps ya.

Then surely you know of Sean Carroll

Of course!
he's one of my heroes, along with brian greene, greg maxwell, pieter wuille, peter todd ...

[White sugar]

Trump has a 25% chance at being pres. When Clinton wins what does that mean for the bitcorn?

How can they calculate the odds of someone being president?

If I want to calculate the odds of a coin gives heads, I flip lots of times the coins and see the frequency of results, but how can I make the next presidential elections several times to see the frequency of Trump being elected?

[JayJuanGee]

Trump has a 25% chance at being pres. When Clinton wins what does that mean for the bitcorn?

How can they calculate the odds of someone being president?

If I want to calculate the odds of a coin gives heads, I flip lots of times the coins and see the frequency of results, but how can I make the next presidential elections several times to see the frequency of Trump being elected?

Yes, the variables are more complicated with presidential elections as compared with coin tosses and the probabilities of events are more complicated than just yes or no (even though there are two most likely outcomes) because the actual outcome accounts for the choices of millions of person in 50 states, but it is the same idea as a coin toss to calculate all the variables and come up with a conclusion that may or may not be correct based on whether you gave sufficient weight to all the variables and properly identified material variables that would affect the outcome.

In this case, it is probably more than 95% likely that Chesthing is wrong in his exact calculation of the material events and actual probabilities, but he probably has at least a 50% chance in being correct in his final conclusion since there are two most likely outcomes (which is either Clinton or Trump), at least at the moment.

[Karartma1]

It has been a week BTC is trading in a 20$ spread range ($660/680) with several stops on the triple six number.

Also Bitcoin Block Average size looks ok
https://www.quandl.com/data/BCHAIN/AVBLS-Bitcoin-Average-Block-Size

Normal days 

[DaRude]

Bitcoin sticking to $666 just says how mature the market is. Or how much more we have to grow 

[jbreher]

how big should the blocks be to match PayPal?

Somewhere between 25 and 50 MB... not that we need to match PayPal transaction volume today. 

Visa?

Somewhere around 600MB-1GB ... not that we need to match Visa transaction volume today.

Why do you ask? Are these relevant targets for the foreseeable future? Would we not need a lot more users to create demand for that scale of transaction volume?

[Elwar]

It's funny how all these people who don't even spend their bitcoins regularly are worried about transactions per second.

If you were actually spending bitcoins you'd see that transaction time is not a factor.

[kobilica]

Tbh, only problem I see is micro-transactions (like coffee), you can't pay quickly enough with bitcoin to be practical (seconds speaking here). Lightening should help with it though.

So, is seg-wit already adopted massively? Don't stuff like wallets and such clients still lack it? Because segwit is needed before lightening can be implemented.

[kobilica]

(I am speaking about confirmation time, cause non-confirmed (and later rejected) open doors for exploiters)

[Elwar]

Tbh, only problem I see is micro-transactions (like coffee), you can't pay quickly enough with bitcoin to be practical (seconds speaking here). Lightening should help with it though.

So, is seg-wit already adopted massively? Don't stuff like wallets and such clients still lack it? Because segwit is needed before lightening can be implemented.

Again...not a problem. As someone who has paid for coffee (actually it was a chai latte) with bitcoins. Not a problem whatsoever.

Spend your bitcoins and find out how things work in the real world.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Oh look here we have the BTC doomer who thinks he's so well educated and brilliant and everyone else is just dumb to believe BTC could ever succeed. Well sorry bud but you were completely wrong about BTC earlier and even more wrong about LTC or PPC when you thought it would pump when BTC would pump before halving.

I thought that BTC halving will cause a bigger hype, that will also drag attention to the other retro-coins. I was wrong on that, and the BTC halving hype was pretty pathetic. I'm quite often wrong, you know. Otherwise it would be weird. What counts is that I have had a very profitable and fun year while playing the crypto game.

Sorry, but your opinion doesn't hold much value considering your past failed predictions. As a global currency Bitcoin right now is not mature or good enough, but to boldly state that some other cryptocurrency will get there before Bitcoin does is quite a statement.

In 2016, I have multiplied my crypto wealth altogether about 7x. If my opinion still doesn't hold value, then you seem a little demanding

As a global currency Bitcoin right now is not mature or good enough, but to boldly state that some other cryptocurrency will get there before Bitcoin does is quite a statement. A real currency doesn't need some outside mechanism for value stability, it needs liquidity and enough people trusting and using it as such. Gold and silver have done fine as a store of value for ages without such a mechanism as well.

I think that this part is amusing on many different levels. You say that a real currency doesn't need some mechanism for value stability, and then you start talking abour gold and silver like they were currencies
Gold and silver are metals, not currencies. And not the best metals to be used as store of value assets, since a very large part of it's value is based on speculation. If you want a proper store of value asset, then better buy up some industrial metals and minerals that's production and demand are much less dependent on speculation, so their future value can be more easily predicted.

So you're seeing this all upside down. Your hopes of some mystical superior cryptocurrency coming up are more delusional and cultish than the hopes of bitcoiners you like to criticize so much. We'll see who the future will proof right, hope you will still be here in a few years from now to admit you were wrong or right. I know I will.

The reason why I don't like the fanatical bitcoiners, is that their stupidity and laziness is actually holding back the development of this entire new path of cryptocurrencies. I would like to see cryptocurrencies already that would be useful for something other then gambling, illegal activity or just something fun to fool around with. I want practical tools of finance, not some gimmicky currency, that is followed by young zealots with hopes of getting rich without work or skill

[kobilica]

Tbh, only problem I see is micro-transactions (like coffee), you can't pay quickly enough with bitcoin to be practical (seconds speaking here). Lightening should help with it though.

So, is seg-wit already adopted massively? Don't stuff like wallets and such clients still lack it? Because segwit is needed before lightening can be implemented.

Again...not a problem. As someone who has paid for coffee (actually it was a chai latte) with bitcoins. Not a problem whatsoever.

Spend your bitcoins and find out how things work in the real world.

I did spent my bitcoins already, payment is instant but confirmation is not. It takes a while (10-20 minutes) I think.