Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still going nowhere I see.



No much to talk about price-wise.

[podyx]

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/crime/article91682102.html

But Miami-Dade Circuit Judge Teresa Mary Pooler ruled that Bitcoin was not backed by any government or bank, and was not “tangible wealth” and “cannot be hidden under a mattress like cash and gold bars.”

“The court is not an expert in economics, however, it is very clear, even to someone with limited knowledge in the area, the Bitcoin has a long way to go before it the equivalent of money,” Pooler wrote in an eight-page order.

 

[respawn2]

So much for the halfing raising price. Small miners quitting. Hate to see the next one.

Price was under $300 in January. I'd say the halving raised the price significantly.

Unless there was some other news that doubled the price in the past 7 months?

No, you're right, the price rise was due to the halvening pump. Now price is coming back down, as always.

Estimated Next Difficulty:   201,904,118,316 (-5.43%)
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Prophesies gettin' fulfilled

Price was $635 at halving. Price now is $655. That is the opposite of down.

Right. And $680 a few minutes before the halvening, but why quibble? Dropping hashrate is dropping, as the fees escalate. As prophesied

[AlexGR]

Fourth:  Are you suggesting a drop in hashing power too, or not?   I don't see that, so far.

Yes the HR is down, how can you not see this?  

Hash Rate:   1,363,094,377 GH/s right now

It was ~ 1,550,000 GH/s at halving, had been inching up until halving, held steady for a short while after halving and has recently declined.

That is ~ 12%

Hashrate isn't steady - it fluctuates. It fluctuated pre-halving too: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

[Elwar]

So much for the halfing raising price. Small miners quitting. Hate to see the next one.

Price was under $300 in January. I'd say the halving raised the price significantly.

Unless there was some other news that doubled the price in the past 7 months?

No, you're right, the price rise was due to the halvening pump. Now price is coming back down, as always.

Estimated Next Difficulty:   201,904,118,316 (-5.43%)
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Prophesies gettin' fulfilled

Price was $635 at halving. Price now is $655. That is the opposite of down.

Right. And $680 a few minutes before the halvening, but why quibble? Dropping hashrate is dropping, as the fees escalate. As prophesied

The price was $660 most of the day then dropped 3 blocks before the halving.

Of course, the long year trend showed that the price would be $660 the day of the halving (as predicted over 2 years ago).

The formula would be close to this:
P = 13.5t + 12
where t = months since November 2012

Before the halving the rate was closer to:
P = .3t + 1
t being months from February 2010

With the formula after the next halving:
P = 20.25t + 660
t being months from July 2016

Price should be bouncing around $680 mid August (though more likely it will be pulled into the $666 hole until there's big enough breakout).

[nioc]

Fourth:  Are you suggesting a drop in hashing power too, or not?   I don't see that, so far.

Yes the HR is down, how can you not see this?  

Hash Rate:   1,363,094,377 GH/s right now

It was ~ 1,550,000 GH/s at halving, had been inching up until halving, held steady for a short while after halving and has recently declined.

That is ~ 12%

Hashrate isn't steady - it fluctuates. It fluctuated pre-halving too: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Yes, I follow the green line as it is the smoothest.  That chart is only 2 months but the recent decline looks different.  There are many things that contribute to fluctuating hashrate and it would seem that the halving is a significant thing.  Yes it's a bit early to tell.

[respawn2]

Of course, the long year trend showed that the price would be $660 the day of the halving (as predicted over 2 years ago).

https://foundersgrid.com/bitcoin-price/

Looks like your tomfoolery is coming to an end, Elwar...

http://bitlegal.io/2016/07/24/eu-commission-to-propose-central-database-of-virtual-currency-users/
EU Commission to propose Central Database of Virtual Currency Users
July 24, 2016
520

The EU Commission in its latest proposal to regulate virtual currency exchanges and custodian wallets (Proposal) suggests a further amendment to the 4th Anti-Money Laundering Directive (4AMLD) which may result in the creation of a central database of virtual currency users (Central VC User Database).

[Moria843]

I hope you're all right. I was a small miner who can no longer afford to mine based on local electricity cost. Just believe there are a lot of others in the same boat who will stay shut down unless the BTC price raises significantly. Don't see lower difficulty having as much of an impact.

[gentlemand]

The new BitcoinETI begins trading this week on the Gibraltar Stock Exchange and Germany's Deutsche Boerse and will be available through regulated brokerages across Europe.

I'd say this is pretty big news. Or isn't it?

No idea. We've already got GBTC and the KNCminer ETN. It's hard to say whether they've done a great deal for Bitcoin as a market entity. It's positive stuff all the same and slowly adds up to some sexiness.

[Elwar]

Of course, the long year trend showed that the price would be $660 the day of the halving (as predicted over 2 years ago).

https://foundersgrid.com/bitcoin-price/

Looks like your tomfoolery is coming to an end, Elwar...

http://bitlegal.io/2016/07/24/eu-commission-to-propose-central-database-of-virtual-currency-users/
EU Commission to propose Central Database of Virtual Currency Users
July 24, 2016
520

The EU Commission in its latest proposal to regulate virtual currency exchanges and custodian wallets (Proposal) suggests a further amendment to the 4th Anti-Money Laundering Directive (4AMLD) which may result in the creation of a central database of virtual currency users (Central VC User Database).

Tomfoolery? I am very open about my use of bitcoins and whom I am. As part of my clearance I never do anything illegal outside of a few traffic violations. The EU is free to watch how I spend my bitcoins, maybe they will learn something and adopt it themselves.

[AlexGR]

Of course, the long year trend showed that the price would be $660 the day of the halving (as predicted over 2 years ago).

https://foundersgrid.com/bitcoin-price/

Looks like your tomfoolery is coming to an end, Elwar...

http://bitlegal.io/2016/07/24/eu-commission-to-propose-central-database-of-virtual-currency-users/
EU Commission to propose Central Database of Virtual Currency Users
July 24, 2016
520

The EU Commission in its latest proposal to regulate virtual currency exchanges and custodian wallets (Proposal) suggests a further amendment to the 4th Anti-Money Laundering Directive (4AMLD) which may result in the creation of a central database of virtual currency users (Central VC User Database).

That's why the EU needs disintegration.

We need more BRexits.

[respawn2]

Tomfoolery?

Yes, your mischief and foolishness. Monkey business, if you will.
EU authorities had just about enough of your crypto shenanigans, Elwar

[Elwar]

Tomfoolery?

Yes, your mischief and foolishness. Monkey business, if you will.
EU authorities had just about enough of your crypto shenanigans, Elwar

I'll be around a lot longer than the EU. No worries.

[adamstgBit]

Of course, the long year trend showed that the price would be $660 the day of the halving (as predicted over 2 years ago).

https://foundersgrid.com/bitcoin-price/

Looks like your tomfoolery is coming to an end, Elwar...

http://bitlegal.io/2016/07/24/eu-commission-to-propose-central-database-of-virtual-currency-users/
EU Commission to propose Central Database of Virtual Currency Users
July 24, 2016
520

The EU Commission in its latest proposal to regulate virtual currency exchanges and custodian wallets (Proposal) suggests a further amendment to the 4th Anti-Money Laundering Directive (4AMLD) which may result in the creation of a central database of virtual currency users (Central VC User Database).

Tomfoolery? I am very open about my use of bitcoins and whom I am. As part of my clearance I never do anything illegal outside of a few traffic violations. The EU is free to watch how I spend my bitcoins, maybe they will learn something and adopt it themselves.

lol right, and so the only names that will ever appear there will be legit users using bitcoin for legal things.

what do they hope to accomplish?

[JayJuanGee]

Fourth:  Are you suggesting a drop in hashing power too, or not?   I don't see that, so far.

Yes the HR is down, how can you not see this?  

Hash Rate:   1,363,094,377 GH/s right now

It was ~ 1,550,000 GH/s at halving, had been inching up until halving, held steady for a short while after halving and has recently declined.

That is ~ 12%

yeah, let's get caught up on meaningless information and follow microchanges in the hashrate.

We are not really quibbling about the actual hashrate and its changes, but instead about the significance of such changes that we recognize to exist.

For ease of reference, here's the actual hashrate in the past year.


https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate


As we can see, the hashrate has been going up significantly, and we can zoom out, as well to see how exponential such growth has been.

Wake me up if the hashrate goes below 1,000,000 GHs, and even that level may not really be that significant, but at least there is some kind of potential meaningful change if the hashrate starts to go below that point.


You expect to continue to have ongoing exponential growth in the hashrate at all times, or otherwise bitcoin is broken?, which seems a bit ridiculous..

Even with a hashrate of 1,000,000 GHs is a very high and well able to secure a BTC market cap of 10x or 100x higher BTC prices.

[Elwar]

Of course, the long year trend showed that the price would be $660 the day of the halving (as predicted over 2 years ago).

https://foundersgrid.com/bitcoin-price/

Looks like your tomfoolery is coming to an end, Elwar...

http://bitlegal.io/2016/07/24/eu-commission-to-propose-central-database-of-virtual-currency-users/
EU Commission to propose Central Database of Virtual Currency Users
July 24, 2016
520

The EU Commission in its latest proposal to regulate virtual currency exchanges and custodian wallets (Proposal) suggests a further amendment to the 4th Anti-Money Laundering Directive (4AMLD) which may result in the creation of a central database of virtual currency users (Central VC User Database).

Tomfoolery? I am very open about my use of bitcoins and whom I am. As part of my clearance I never do anything illegal outside of a few traffic violations. The EU is free to watch how I spend my bitcoins, maybe they will learn something and adopt it themselves.

lol right, and so the only names that will ever appear there will be legit users using bitcoin for legal things.

what do they hope to accomplish?

Ever since the Paris shootings there was talk about the guns coming from the "dark web" using bitcoins. Soon after the EU called for a response. A few weeks later they raided people all over the EU looking for "dark web" activity. They made this huge announcement about how they hit all of these "bad guys" listing such prizes as some drugs, some money and one guy had instructions on how to produce meth on his computer. They hailed this as a great victory. No weapons or anything related to "terrorism" but boy did they show those "dark web" users in Europe to stop using that evil "dark web".

[adamstgBit]

Fourth:  Are you suggesting a drop in hashing power too, or not?   I don't see that, so far.

Yes the HR is down, how can you not see this?  

Hash Rate:   1,363,094,377 GH/s right now

It was ~ 1,550,000 GH/s at halving, had been inching up until halving, held steady for a short while after halving and has recently declined.

That is ~ 12%

yeah, let's get caught up on meaningless information and follow microchanges in the hashrate.

We are not really quibbling about the actual hashrate and its changes, but instead about the significance of such changes that we recognize to exist.

For ease of reference, here's the actual hashrate in the past year.


https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate


As we can see, the hashrate has been going up significantly, and we can zoom out, as well to see how exponential such growth has been.

Wake me up if the hashrate goes below 1,000,000 GHs, and even that level may not really be that significant, but at least there is some kind of potential meaningful change if the hashrate starts to go below that point.


You expect to continue to have ongoing exponential growth in the hashrate at all times, or otherwise bitcoin is broken?, which seems a bit ridiculous..

Even with a hashrate of 1,000,000 GHs is a very high and well able to secure a BTC market cap of 10x or 100x higher BTC prices.

what if we have 9billion GH's all coming from 3 mining pools...

i agree with you 1,000,000 GHs is more then enough to secure the network from outside attacks

but the concern ( altho unjustified )  is that minning is becoming more centralized which will make it easyer to push new changes onto the network.


i think that the strong incentive miners have to keep users happy makes this concern of a mining cartel "taking over" a "Todd"

def.
Todd : (1) irrational fear base on the premise that miners might work together in an effort to undermine the very network that sustains them.

[jbreher]

...
Oh yeah, and this arrived today - https://www.gsx.gi/article/8292/gibraltar-stock-exchange-welcomes-bitcoineti

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/europes-first-regulated-bitcoin-product-launches-gibraltar

The new BitcoinETI begins trading this week on the Gibraltar Stock Exchange and Germany's Deutsche Boerse and will be available through regulated brokerages across Europe.

I'd say this is pretty big news. Or isn't it?

I don't know. If they are required to fully back all investment euros with actual Bitcoin at 1:1 ratio, then it's bullish. If regs allow them to do partial reserve, not so much.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

what if we have 9billion GH's all coming from 3 mining pools...

i agree with you 1,000,000 GHs is more then enough to secure the network from outside attacks

but the concern ( altho unjustified )  is that minning is becoming more centralized which will make it easyer to push new changes onto the network.


i think that the strong incentive miners have to keep users happy makes this concern of a mining cartel "taking over" a "Todd"

def.
Todd : (1) irrational fear base on the premise that miners might work together in an effort to undermine the very network that sustains them.

You are not really going to get any argument from me that there is a need for a large number of miners and mining operations, and so there does likely need to be various kinds of protections regarding centralization.

My post was mostly responding to the assertion that the halvening had potentially caused some kind of meaningful drop in the hashpower, bitcoin's price and the implications that bitcoin was in a perilous state because of such supposed drop in mining power...

I will concede that due to risks of centralization there is a need for balancing and continuing an incentive for a relatively broad spread of miners..... yet I don't think that the halvening has had any meaningful impact yet on such centralization dynamics (if any exist).. and ultimately it seems pretty likely to me that BTC prices are going to go up because of the halvening - even though it could take a year or longer for such BTC supply cuts to become more painful in terms of availability of coins and causing BTC prices to increase more.

In the shorter term, it is much harder to really make meaningful assessments regarding which small changes here and there (including the halvening) are causing what, because there are a lot of changes going on all of the time in bitcoinlandia and BTC prices are continued to be pushed in both directions (with relatively low volume in recent weeks  - even around the time of the halvening).

[Fakhoury]

http://forklog.net/exante-winklevoss-brothers-etf-to-skyrocket-bitcoin-price/

"if the Winklevoss’ application is approved, the bitcoin price can easily rise to 2 and even to 10 thousand dollars."

Good point, Elwar, as I was asking myself, will the COIN ETF ever get approved ?

I think yes, but it's not around the corner.

What you think ? If no, why ? If yes, will take some time, right ?

Thanks buddy

ETF is bullshit (not bullish). winklewees are ever failing wannabes burning through daddy money.

trading paper coins will certainly not lead btc price higher.

just look at how gold ETFs are used to lower its price, flooding the market with their monkey gold.

Elwar, what do you think about what hdbuck said ?

And yes, I'm aware of that second ETF filled by SoildX.

You said that the winkies are impatient now, how will this help in accelarating the decision taking ?

Plus, don't you think it's too soon to see that the COIN ETF will launch before the end of the year ?

Lastly, do you think we could have two Bitcoin ETF's in two diffierent stock exchanges ? Probable ?

The part about the Winklevoss twins being impatient implies that they are still actively trying to get this to work and by changing exchanges they are showing that they're willing to do what it takes to get it done.
 
As far as lowering the price? No. We already see that people are willing to spend double the bitcoin price for bitcoins on the exchange market if they have a broker handling it. The more people who are able to check a box at work to have some of their retirement go toward a bitcoin investment the higher the price will go. That is a market not yet tapped. And it is huge.

It's all speculation as to when it will happen though. They said that it usually takes 2 years from the initial filing. It's been over 3 years.

Thanks for the reply, Elwar.

1.

That is a market not yet tapped. And it is huge

Any numbers about that numbers, even an estimate ?

2. Do you think we could have two Bitcoin ETF's in two different stock exchanges ? Probable ?

3. What do you think about this

https://www.gsx.gi/article/8292/gibraltar-stock-exchange-welcomes-bitcoineti

4. And this as well

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4uiny2/vontobel_issues_first_bitcoin_certificate_on/

Thanks