Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[silverfuture]

Does anybody see it going below $600 within the next 24 hours?
This is very sad very sad indeed 

I'm betting down to somewhere around 420$ USD in the short term.  I think she'll be vigorously defended there and then rise to ATH in a long and steep bull run.

From where are you getting these figures, from out of your ass?

That is a pretty low amount, and didn't you already notice that $600 had been tested several times in the past month, and only successful once.. Sure it is possible to go down to $420, but that would almost be borderline territory in reversing the bull trend... but that is not what you are saying.  In the end, we gotta get by $500 first and even $550 and $600, so there are a few challenges before even getting to the $400s.

Pretty much...but a little before anything comes out the ass, gut instinct kicks in!  Probably more realistically high 400's. Within a range but I think it's a leg down before more up. Everyone's had a taste of the bull and wants more but patience is likely a virtue this summer.

Funny how guys feel better to quote themselves, even when they concede that they are just guessing in their predictions..

hahahahahaha   

Still a bit premature to be expecting that we are getting to $400s any time soon.  I'm not saying $400s is impossible, just that we gotta get through various resistance points first (and all that before prices reverse and resume their upwards trajectory).  I would think that mid $500s is a decent reversal point - but yeah, that's my sense at the moment, and not really based on too much of anything besides the appearance of overall ongoing upwards price pressures.

Since the price has dropped around $50 since the quote, I'd say we're headed in the right direction.  A this rate bitcoin will be -600.00USD in only 24 weeks!

[Lionidas]

Damn you Coinbase! Damn you! 

[adamstgBit]

610 ISN'T going to hodl! it will break...

[JayJuanGee]

Does anybody see it going below $600 within the next 24 hours?
This is very sad very sad indeed 

I'm betting down to somewhere around 420$ USD in the short term.  I think she'll be vigorously defended there and then rise to ATH in a long and steep bull run.

From where are you getting these figures, from out of your ass?

That is a pretty low amount, and didn't you already notice that $600 had been tested several times in the past month, and only successful once.. Sure it is possible to go down to $420, but that would almost be borderline territory in reversing the bull trend... but that is not what you are saying.  In the end, we gotta get by $500 first and even $550 and $600, so there are a few challenges before even getting to the $400s.

Pretty much...but a little before anything comes out the ass, gut instinct kicks in!  Probably more realistically high 400's. Within a range but I think it's a leg down before more up. Everyone's had a taste of the bull and wants more but patience is likely a virtue this summer.

Funny how guys feel better to quote themselves, even when they concede that they are just guessing in their predictions..

hahahahahaha   

Still a bit premature to be expecting that we are getting to $400s any time soon.  I'm not saying $400s is impossible, just that we gotta get through various resistance points first (and all that before prices reverse and resume their upwards trajectory).  I would think that mid $500s is a decent reversal point - but yeah, that's my sense at the moment, and not really based on too much of anything besides the appearance of overall ongoing upwards price pressures.

Since the price has dropped around $50 since the quote, I'd say we're headed in the right direction.  A this rate bitcoin will be -600.00USD in only 24 weeks!

Gosh... I don't mean to battle with you, but you seem to be getting worse and worse with every post.

Part of my point, is that it is like a stab in the dark to attempt to make precise BTC price predictions, and the more specific you are, the more likely is that you are merely throwing darts (yes, you could be correct, but so what).

There are too many factors in bitcoin and too many unknowns, even if you know a lot.  In  the end, the most accurate depictions are going to be probabilities and ranges for any particular time frame.  Do you think that it would help if I provided one for you, or are you stuck in your absolutism ways?   

[Andre#]

Since nobody mentions it around here, Kraken is weirdly leading the decline. Currently 2-3% below BTC-e (!) already, 3-3.5% below Coinbase and Stamp. I've never see this before. There has to be a reason that people use Kraken  to dump BTC. Perhaps because it's an easy gateway to ETC, which happened to go up 43% in the past 24 hr (in USD)?

[AlexGR]

610 ISN'T going to hodl! it will break...

I saw what you did there

[adamstgBit]

Since nobody mentions it around here, Kraken is weirdly leading the decline. Currently 2-3% below BTC-e (!) already, 3-3.5% below Coinbase and Stamp. I've never see this before. There has to be a reason that people use Kraken  to dump BTC. Perhaps because it's an easy gateway to ETC, which happened to go up 43% in the past 24 hr (in USD)?

thats a reasonable explanation

poeple cashing out of an already very profitable trade ( selling there duplicated coins for BTC ( free money WOOT!) )  probably have less of a problem DUMPING....

[adamstgBit]

610 ISN'T going to hodl! it will break...

I saw what you did there

ambiguity is the key to making good prediction 

[AliceGored]

http://8btc.com/thread-36622-2-1.html

this is a gr8 read.

my fav bit.

Bitcoin will have a hard-fork, eventually, I think. When bitcoin has a HF, there will be 2 chains after the fork and there will be 2 coins. It is almost guaranteed that some people will refuse the new chain and will remain on the old chain. There are enough people with significant amounts of bitcoin who will never agree to a fork and can afford to keep mining the old chain. Ethereum demonstrated this issue very well. In bitcoin it will be much bigger, because the “old” bitcoin may be worth as much as all of ethereum (1 billion USD). It will not undermine bitcoin’s value very much, but it will cause some chaos with users, wallets and exchanges. This is why a HF needs to be very carefully planned and executed with plenty of advance notice. We also need to learn from Ethereum and consider adding some anti-replay defenses to help users maintain separation of the two chains in their wallets.

I think hes right eventually we will HF but hes exaggerating the possibility of a chain split as a result IMO. if Core is supporting 2MB hardfork when the time comes ( in like 2years? ), i dont see a chain split as a possibility. I guess maybe there could be some die hard group that rejects the fork with <1% hashrate...but its not like the HF is proposing to alter the immutable blockchain, or something equally ridiculous. I disagree with the idea of adding some anti-replay defenses, the other chain should be viewed as INVALID, and there's no use catering to an invalid chain...

A 5%-hash chain of BTC will be producing blocks at something like ...200 minutes. And with difficulty adjustment in 10 months (which will not fix the issue) it'll be DOA.

A strong miner majority hard fork to a bigger max_block_size would be much more likely to dominate in Bitcoin vs Ethereum's DAO bailout fork, directly because of the difference in difficulty adjustment. A good point, which can't be overstated. Core won't be supporting the HF though. Any change from Core, from here on out, will be a soft fork. And with some clever programming tactics, you can do just about anything you can imagine with a SF. Just need a half dozen miners on-board with Blockstream CTO Maxwell's the sole repo's roadmap to activate it.

It would require proof-of-work change and diff starting from a lower point. So then you have 3 coins and the one is unusable.

There is going to be a split Bitcoin one way or the other... if HF supporters get mining support, the 1MB4EVA clan will change PoW and reset diff... and if 1MB4EVA + soft-fork-salad retains ASIC warehouse mining support, HF supporters will change PoW, and reset difficulty. Just need to get it listed to Polo, and you're off to the races.  

Wouldn't it be ironic?... if the "immutable 1MB ('cept for constant soft forks)" Bitcoin was mined in 4 gigantic chinese chicken coops... While the "higher max throughput" Bitcoin was highly decentralized with GPUs and stealing mining power and interest from ETH/ETC. It's a move in the game. We just haven't reached that point... yet.

my perception is that there simply is no support for the  1MB4EVA  people.

Your perception is wrong. They have the support of bitcoin.org, r/bitcoin, this here forum of elevated discourse... you know, the important stuff.

It's about control, and control of information is a key component. 

economic majority isn't in that camp... ( we saw the open letter )

Letters and agreements are trash, cash and hash is all that matters.

the miners certainly aren't int that camp

Seem to be from where I sit.

and the devs are not in that camp either.
most devs, outside of core, aren't in that camp
and i'd bet devs that contribute to core dont even put themselves in that camp

Guess what happens if a prospective dev hops in the Core_dev IRC room and eventually voices a plan outside the scope of Gregory's roadmap?

is Gmaxwellhouse really saying "4EVA"

Of course not, they will add merge mined sidechains like segwit which takes actual blocksize up to a potential 4MB. It also gives a 75% economic discount to signature heavy transactions like LN opening, balancing, and closing transactions, coming soon®. Your node will be crippled in terms of network awareness, but will still function, we want you to come along.

1MB is not here to stay, but its here for now, and its not a big deal.

This is fine.

[JayJuanGee]

610 ISN'T going to hodl! it will break...

I saw what you did there

ambiguity is the key to making good prediction  

Hence, ambiguity --- your choice of poll language.  


Speaking of poll language, my time piece seems to indicate the future is here, and 7/31 is forever.....




aaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnndddddddddd  



it's



gone!!!!!

 

[SilverSwan]

Everybody ready? Keep hands and feet inside the car at all times pls.

[adamstgBit]

my perception is that there simply is no support for the  1MB4EVA  people.

Your perception is wrong. They have the support of bitcoin.org, r/bitcoin, this here forum of elevated discourse... you know, the important stuff.

It's about control, and control of information is a key component.  

well there's   r/BTC    bitco.in   and    blockspace.org

these sites might become more important if the level of censorship hits a new level here. for now big blocker views are tolerated here.

economic majority isn't in that camp... ( we saw the open letter )

Letters and agreements are trash, cash and hash is all that matters.

agreements != trash.
sure its not written in stone or anything, but its not like they signed a "worthless" 1MB4EVA agreement...

the miners certainly aren't in that camp

Seem to be from where I sit.

this is unclear,
but we know miners have threatened to use classic software and there is 5.6% hashing on classic right now.
in anycase we should agree minners running core software says nothing about whether or not they are in the 1MB4EVA camp.

and the devs are not in that camp either.
most devs, outside of core, aren't in that camp
and i'd bet devs that contribute to core dont even put themselves in that camp

Guess what happens if a prospective dev hops in the Core_dev IRC room and eventually voices a plan outside the scope of Gregory's roadmap?

they are told they are amarutes, to GTFO and then, get banned?
lol i bet its not THAT bad...

is Gmaxwellhouse really saying "4EVA"

Of course not, they will add merge mined sidechains like segwit which takes actual blocksize up to a potential 4MB. It also gives a 75% economic discount to signature heavy transactions like LN opening, balancing, and closing transactions, coming soon®. Your node will be crippled in terms of network awareness, but will still function, we want you to come along.

other devs will peer review, make objections, more heated debate.. more stalling on scaling, only by then core is 9 months behind schedule, and everyone's starting to think THEY are the amateurs, some idiot will be like " I can fix TX malleability without  all this other shit segwit comes with, aaaaannnnndddd its a softfork  " BOOM in less then 30mins all of cores "support" vanishes, and progress is made.

1MB is not here to stay, but its here for now, and its not a big deal.

This is fine.

cool.

[marcus_of_augustus]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=zhu1qq7JwNo#t=16  dump-de-doo it's the cookie bear

[adamstgBit]

WTF!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Way she goes, boys. Way she goes. 

[aztecminer]

here come below $300 guys. everyone knows if bitcoin hardforks Poloniex will add BTCC and away we will go.. the halvening hype has faded .. there is no other good news on the horizon except more talk about what going to do, while bitcoin still doesn't scale. however, maybe hardfork will be alright since BTCC will maintain the can't scale feature. we all know the drill. chinese miners are panicking again .

[Mrpumperitis]

yeap back too the $500s....

[Mrpumperitis]

here come $300 guys. everyone knows if bitcoin hardforks Poloniex will ad BTCC and away we will go.. the halvening hype has faded .. there is no other good news on the horizon except more talk about what going to do, while bitcoin still doesn't scale. however, maybe hardfork will be alright since BTCC will maintain the can't scale feature. we all know the drill. chinese miners are panicking again .

agree m8,  it is possible, the floor must be found and $300 sounds fair as the bottom.

[adamstgBit]

i should change my avatar



LMFAO

[calme]

won't shock me one bit. 2xx beyond a flash crash = shock