Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

Since nobody mentions it around here, Kraken is weirdly leading the decline. Currently 2-3% below BTC-e (!) already, 3-3.5% below Coinbase and Stamp. I've never see this before. There has to be a reason that people use Kraken  to dump BTC. Perhaps because it's an easy gateway to ETC, which happened to go up 43% in the past 24 hr (in USD)?

thats a reasonable explanation

poeple cashing out of an already very profitable trade ( selling there duplicated coins for BTC ( free money WOOT!) )  probably have less of a problem DUMPING....

[adamstgBit]

610 ISN'T going to hodl! it will break...

I saw what you did there

ambiguity is the key to making good prediction 

[AliceGored]

http://8btc.com/thread-36622-2-1.html

this is a gr8 read.

my fav bit.

Bitcoin will have a hard-fork, eventually, I think. When bitcoin has a HF, there will be 2 chains after the fork and there will be 2 coins. It is almost guaranteed that some people will refuse the new chain and will remain on the old chain. There are enough people with significant amounts of bitcoin who will never agree to a fork and can afford to keep mining the old chain. Ethereum demonstrated this issue very well. In bitcoin it will be much bigger, because the “old” bitcoin may be worth as much as all of ethereum (1 billion USD). It will not undermine bitcoin’s value very much, but it will cause some chaos with users, wallets and exchanges. This is why a HF needs to be very carefully planned and executed with plenty of advance notice. We also need to learn from Ethereum and consider adding some anti-replay defenses to help users maintain separation of the two chains in their wallets.

I think hes right eventually we will HF but hes exaggerating the possibility of a chain split as a result IMO. if Core is supporting 2MB hardfork when the time comes ( in like 2years? ), i dont see a chain split as a possibility. I guess maybe there could be some die hard group that rejects the fork with <1% hashrate...but its not like the HF is proposing to alter the immutable blockchain, or something equally ridiculous. I disagree with the idea of adding some anti-replay defenses, the other chain should be viewed as INVALID, and there's no use catering to an invalid chain...

A 5%-hash chain of BTC will be producing blocks at something like ...200 minutes. And with difficulty adjustment in 10 months (which will not fix the issue) it'll be DOA.

A strong miner majority hard fork to a bigger max_block_size would be much more likely to dominate in Bitcoin vs Ethereum's DAO bailout fork, directly because of the difference in difficulty adjustment. A good point, which can't be overstated. Core won't be supporting the HF though. Any change from Core, from here on out, will be a soft fork. And with some clever programming tactics, you can do just about anything you can imagine with a SF. Just need a half dozen miners on-board with Blockstream CTO Maxwell's the sole repo's roadmap to activate it.

It would require proof-of-work change and diff starting from a lower point. So then you have 3 coins and the one is unusable.

There is going to be a split Bitcoin one way or the other... if HF supporters get mining support, the 1MB4EVA clan will change PoW and reset diff... and if 1MB4EVA + soft-fork-salad retains ASIC warehouse mining support, HF supporters will change PoW, and reset difficulty. Just need to get it listed to Polo, and you're off to the races.  

Wouldn't it be ironic?... if the "immutable 1MB ('cept for constant soft forks)" Bitcoin was mined in 4 gigantic chinese chicken coops... While the "higher max throughput" Bitcoin was highly decentralized with GPUs and stealing mining power and interest from ETH/ETC. It's a move in the game. We just haven't reached that point... yet.

my perception is that there simply is no support for the  1MB4EVA  people.

Your perception is wrong. They have the support of bitcoin.org, r/bitcoin, this here forum of elevated discourse... you know, the important stuff.

It's about control, and control of information is a key component. 

economic majority isn't in that camp... ( we saw the open letter )

Letters and agreements are trash, cash and hash is all that matters.

the miners certainly aren't int that camp

Seem to be from where I sit.

and the devs are not in that camp either.
most devs, outside of core, aren't in that camp
and i'd bet devs that contribute to core dont even put themselves in that camp

Guess what happens if a prospective dev hops in the Core_dev IRC room and eventually voices a plan outside the scope of Gregory's roadmap?

is Gmaxwellhouse really saying "4EVA"

Of course not, they will add merge mined sidechains like segwit which takes actual blocksize up to a potential 4MB. It also gives a 75% economic discount to signature heavy transactions like LN opening, balancing, and closing transactions, coming soon®. Your node will be crippled in terms of network awareness, but will still function, we want you to come along.

1MB is not here to stay, but its here for now, and its not a big deal.

This is fine.

[JayJuanGee]

610 ISN'T going to hodl! it will break...

I saw what you did there

ambiguity is the key to making good prediction  

Hence, ambiguity --- your choice of poll language.  


Speaking of poll language, my time piece seems to indicate the future is here, and 7/31 is forever.....




aaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnnndddddddddd  



it's



gone!!!!!

 

[SilverSwan]

Everybody ready? Keep hands and feet inside the car at all times pls.

[adamstgBit]

my perception is that there simply is no support for the  1MB4EVA  people.

Your perception is wrong. They have the support of bitcoin.org, r/bitcoin, this here forum of elevated discourse... you know, the important stuff.

It's about control, and control of information is a key component.  

well there's   r/BTC    bitco.in   and    blockspace.org

these sites might become more important if the level of censorship hits a new level here. for now big blocker views are tolerated here.

economic majority isn't in that camp... ( we saw the open letter )

Letters and agreements are trash, cash and hash is all that matters.

agreements != trash.
sure its not written in stone or anything, but its not like they signed a "worthless" 1MB4EVA agreement...

the miners certainly aren't in that camp

Seem to be from where I sit.

this is unclear,
but we know miners have threatened to use classic software and there is 5.6% hashing on classic right now.
in anycase we should agree minners running core software says nothing about whether or not they are in the 1MB4EVA camp.

and the devs are not in that camp either.
most devs, outside of core, aren't in that camp
and i'd bet devs that contribute to core dont even put themselves in that camp

Guess what happens if a prospective dev hops in the Core_dev IRC room and eventually voices a plan outside the scope of Gregory's roadmap?

they are told they are amarutes, to GTFO and then, get banned?
lol i bet its not THAT bad...

is Gmaxwellhouse really saying "4EVA"

Of course not, they will add merge mined sidechains like segwit which takes actual blocksize up to a potential 4MB. It also gives a 75% economic discount to signature heavy transactions like LN opening, balancing, and closing transactions, coming soon®. Your node will be crippled in terms of network awareness, but will still function, we want you to come along.

other devs will peer review, make objections, more heated debate.. more stalling on scaling, only by then core is 9 months behind schedule, and everyone's starting to think THEY are the amateurs, some idiot will be like " I can fix TX malleability without  all this other shit segwit comes with, aaaaannnnndddd its a softfork  " BOOM in less then 30mins all of cores "support" vanishes, and progress is made.

1MB is not here to stay, but its here for now, and its not a big deal.

This is fine.

cool.

[marcus_of_augustus]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=zhu1qq7JwNo#t=16  dump-de-doo it's the cookie bear

[adamstgBit]

WTF!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Way she goes, boys. Way she goes. 

[aztecminer]

here come below $300 guys. everyone knows if bitcoin hardforks Poloniex will add BTCC and away we will go.. the halvening hype has faded .. there is no other good news on the horizon except more talk about what going to do, while bitcoin still doesn't scale. however, maybe hardfork will be alright since BTCC will maintain the can't scale feature. we all know the drill. chinese miners are panicking again .

[Mrpumperitis]

yeap back too the $500s....

[Mrpumperitis]

here come $300 guys. everyone knows if bitcoin hardforks Poloniex will ad BTCC and away we will go.. the halvening hype has faded .. there is no other good news on the horizon except more talk about what going to do, while bitcoin still doesn't scale. however, maybe hardfork will be alright since BTCC will maintain the can't scale feature. we all know the drill. chinese miners are panicking again .

agree m8,  it is possible, the floor must be found and $300 sounds fair as the bottom.

[adamstgBit]

i should change my avatar



LMFAO

[calme]

won't shock me one bit. 2xx beyond a flash crash = shock

[adamstgBit]

did you miss that crash below 600?

here comes the instant replay!

[Derek492]

Say goodbye to your little BTC friend. Sub $600 just hit

[HyphyBTC]

If anybody needs proof of "whales"

http://www.cftc.gov/idc/groups/public/@lrenforcementactions/documents/legalpleading/enfbfxnaorder060216.pdf

"However, corporate users compromised a significant portion of Bitfinex's trading volume during the Relevant Period. In 2015, 88% of the dollars deposited to and withdrawn from Bitfinex were by corporate users."

Bottom of page 3

[DaRude]

So how was everyones weeken... ohhhhh  

Just gonna quote myself there.

It is frightening that we went into $500s and 0 f*cks werer given by longs, still above $38MM on finex   we might have more room to fall, at least shorts are creeping up BTC25k or $15MM

Need to shed about $10MM in those pesky longs, who went full retard for the halfening before we can resume uptrend

How far down will BTC prices have to go in order to achieve such an objective?  will $610 do it, or do we need to go below $580 in order to shed that quantity of longs?

They are some resilient buggers, it'll be pure speculation on my part but wouldn't be surprised to see $560 again. The short term halfening speculators need to give up hope and exit their position

[HyphyBTC]

BillyJoeAllen was the only person I know that sold because of the block size. Speculators trade on price alone and traders are short term. Miners mine for profit in fiat not BTC, they aren't sitting on piles of BTC, if they were they wouldn't sell because you can't get free BTCC to sell for profit if you don't have BTC at the fork. Nobody is selling shit because of a hard fork. ETH fell due to DAO but barely moved once the fork happened weeks later. You people are delusional if you think that's why the price is moving. Whales and exchanges move the price, them and only them. All of you other small fish just try to keep up, and they use it to their benefit. If everyone hodls they lose.

Yeah, I generally agree with you about the whales; however, if it was about the whales, they would have preferred to keep prices below $500, which they were not able to do.

Do you think that we are returning below $500 anytime soon, and do you believe that "the whales" are going to be able to keep prices below $500 for any sustainable period of time?

The failed to keep it under $500 part.... Whales can take a break from time to time. With the insider knowledge they have, they know when a large sum of fiat enters an exchange, and can either front run or at least hold of selling. When they see the "newcomer" is done buying they can sell for a profit. That's what we are seeing now. What's better than a pump and dump? One where someone else does the pumping and you do the dumping. It makes for much greater profit than any other method. You might even coax the newcomer into selling at a loss, and profit from that too. I just made a post here about BFX being 88% corporate aka whales, when this falls under 50% they lose all their power. So expect to see this over and over.

Bringing it back under $500 seems like a 30% chance to me, as in if they will only barely break into the high $400s. I think they have no incentive to do it because margin longs are so heavily backed that we would need $300s to see a significant margin call of longs. I'm thinking sideways between $580 and $620 until another newcomer enters or we see another hype cycle.

[Lionidas]

610 ISN'T going to hodl! it will break...

For the worst right?