Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Price seems to have settled in the $565-$575 range after the Bitfinex hack. I wonder which way we'll go next, feels a bit uneasy waiting for the next move after such a crash.

I waiting for the China miners to announce say a 8mb block fork on Friday just to round
 out the week. That could make Bitcoin go pear shaped in a big way. 2014 180 used coin redux

FML

You  have been reading too much of the bullshit hardfork propaganda.

Yeah we could suffer some more mini-bitcoin-blackswan events, just to screw us up, but these hardforking scenarios seem totally implausible given the Ethereum fiasco and also that Seg wit is on the verge of going live.. no significant economic interest or major player is either going to attempt to hardfork or attempt to increase the blocksize limit prior to this pending seg wit.... .. there is no real need nor emergency in bitcoin to justify any of these kinds of rash behaviors.. not from actual meaningful players - but there could be FUCD spreading attempts in order to attempt to take advantage of already existing negative events (Bitfinex), that's for sure.

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[JimboToronto]

I don't know if this has been posted here or not but everyone should be aware.

http://blog.bitfinex.com/uncategorized/warning-beware-phishing-emails/

Check out the bad grammar and syntax, typical of phishers.

[DaRude]

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/4vtv1m/bitfinex_down_due_to_bitcoin_security_breach/d64ow17

socialized losses for bitcoin and loans to btc/usd positions. guess we'll know the full facts in a few hours.

Thanks for that link ECB...    The post pretty much states that Bitfinex is going to make a more official update tomorrow, but in the meantime, like you said, Bitfinex is considering a way to socialize losses amongst Bitfinex BTC holders.

 I don't really have a problem with socialized loss in the sense that Bitfinex would later pay back those "losers"... yet, I believe that they are not considering paying back the "losers"...

 I think that it is a bit irresponsible to cause the users to hold the bag... and even though we are finding out some details, we still have to wait for more specifics, which seems to be scheduled to come out tomorrow.

Really the best option for everyone. Other option is to go belly up and then after 4yrs and a bunch of attorney fees you might see some distributions (see Gox). Assuming there'd be a full investigation and it wasn't internal job etc...

We are likely a bit too much speculation regarding various details at the moment because Bitfinex has only provided a rough outline of their intentions - and they also provided one side of the balance sheet without providing some kind of indication of the other side of the balance sheet, which would likely be disclosed in more detail later today.

I guess part of what I am saying, here, is that in order to attempt to achieve more confidence from current account holders and future account holders, they have to disclose enough details in order to inspire some confidence that they are being reasonable.  

I don't think that we can come to any kind of conclusion regarding what is best if we do not have some more disclosure, and likely, since they are not a public company, they are going to be somewhat sparse with the level of their disclosure... in other words, they will be disclosing mostly from an attempt to retain business rather than any kind of actual obligation to disclose.

One last point, Bitfinex is already somewhat known for being a bit shady; however, so far (at least up until this latest incident), their shadiness had not prevented them from accumulating a lot of bitcoins in their trust and to build a large volume of USD/BTC trade.  Maybe some of that trade is fake, but it is likely a lot more representative of reality than some of the other chinese exchanges (Ok coin and Huobi, for example).  So, their known shadiness causes me to speculate that they are continue to be less than fully transparent, and so no matter what there are going to continue to be theories and speculation regarding whether some of this is an inside job, and perhaps if they do not propose some kind of publicly acceptable plan forward with sufficient details, their history along with this latest incident and perhaps inadequate plan will contribute towards their demise.  I remain with my proposition that the most likely appropriate plan forward is to at least attempt to show that they are coming really close to fully compensating all affected users - otherwise they will lose credibility from the big investors.  They don't actually have to carry out such plan, merely just put forth such plan to create such an impression that they plan to fully compensate (or close to fully compensate) everyone who was negatively affected.

They really don't have many option. Coins are gone, either they make everyone whole, compromise, or declare bankruptcy. Those are really all your options.

As far as compromise need to find a thin line between appeasing pissed off investors and staying solvent. They were THE LARGES BTC/USD exchange by volume so all that talk about loosing trust is irrelevant/FUD sure some trust was lost but clearly not enough to have much effect judging by their volume which i believe to be pretty accurate.

As far as giving everyone a haircut without issuing IOUs or finexcoins with a plan to repay is also suicidal, that's pretty much a definition of being insolvent. So naturally come to the same conclusion as cryptsy in the similar situation. Everyone gets an IOU coins

[Gyrsur]

I don't know if this has been posted here or not but everyone should be aware.

http://blog.bitfinex.com/uncategorized/warning-beware-phishing-emails/

Check out the bad grammar and syntax, typical of phishers.

they are happy to have something to write because nothing substantial was told until now!

[JayJuanGee]

The market overreacted and, at peak, we got ~1/3 of the marketcap wiped out. You can't have a 60mn theft taking billions of the marketcap - it's irrational.

I don't believe market cap is a rational way to get the measure of anything, especially something as thinly traded as Bitcoin, let alone alts.

What do you use to measure then?  Market cap is better than unit value, in my opinion, but it is also a very incomplete measurement, I would agree with that.. for example, measuring various aspects of development and fundamentals like security through hashing power and ways in which the asset contributes and has the potential to contribute.

[Holliday]

Since Bitfinex knows all of the attacker's addresses, couldn't they try to convince the top pool's operators to blacklist them? Wouldn't that be one of the "advantages" of ultra centralized mining?

So, lets play this out.

The top pools decide to blacklist the BitFinex theft addresses (BFTA). Let's say the top 5. Looking at bc.info (I know it's not the best place to get info but whatever), the top 5 pools have about 70.6% of the hash rate over the past 4 days. So any blocks created by them will not include transactions from the BFTA.

But wait, there is still @30% of the network to deal with. As soon as they find a block, transactions from the BFTA are included.

Never fear, the top 5 pools aren't finished yet! They ignore blocks from the puny 30% and refuse to build on them. Now we have miners 51% "attacking" the Bitcoin network to blacklist some coins. I'm sure that won't cause any problems.

The thief probably isn't stupid either. He starts including huge miner's fees (multiple bitcoins per transaction) to include his transactions in the block chain. The small pools keep building their chain earning tons of bitcoins from fees (which are melted into the coinbase rewards). The smaller miners start upping their hash power with their new found income!

We now have two viable chains. One with fungibility, one without. Hey, Bitcoin is like Ethereum now! Exchanges list both coins (they love getting those trading fees, don't they)! BTCa and BTCb can be traded against each other. The free market decides which properties are more valuable. Hilarity ensues.

Hey, after this, we can hard fork both forks with bigger blocks and have four chains. BTCa1mb4eva, BTCa8mb, BTCb1mb4eva, BTCb8mb. The more the merrier!

I can't wait for miners to decide to fuck with the network over some contentious issue. I'm sure, as businessmen, they are ready to assume the risk that they will be mining worthless tokens in the hopes of picking the chain that the market prefers! No risk, no reward, amirite?

[aztecminer]

What the hell... Finex is bankrupt and now they want a ''Cyprus'' style haircut for all there users  

That must be a easy fix isn't it? Passing the bill to there users to save there own skin.

A lot of people wanted to avoid this kind of corruption, and now it arrives in Bitcoinland. Monkey see monkey do, so others will see how this ''hack'' heist occurs and bail them out = easy money!

Why no press conference? i only see a freaking smokescreen on both sides. I just dont believe it they have been hacked, by-passing privatekeys and 2-3 multi-sigs...yhea right!

did bitstamp haircut their users ?? this will be a new precedence that users take haircuts... i don't really know, but bitfinex says it will be business as usual .

nothin going on here.. just another 120k coin 68M hack. this actually good for bitcoin .

[DaRude]

What the hell... Finex is bankrupt and now they want a ''Cyprus'' style haircut for all there users  

That must be a easy fix isn't it? Passing the bill to there users to save there own skin.

A lot of people wanted to avoid this kind of corruption, and now it arrives in Bitcoinland. Monkey see monkey do, so others will see how this ''hack'' heist occurs and bail them out = easy money!

Why no press conference? i only see a freaking smokescreen on both sides. I just dont believe it they have been hacked, by-passing privatekeys and 2-3 multi-sigs...yhea right!

did bitstamp haircut their users ?? this will be a new precedence that users take haircuts... i don't really know, but bitfinex says it will be business as usual .

nothin going on here.. just another 120k coin 68M hack. this actually good for bitcoin .

Believe stamp covered the losses internally. Cryptsy is the one that did the haircut

[UngratefulTony]

Exchanges list both coins (they love getting those trading fees, don't they)! BTCa and BTCb can be traded against each other. The free market decides which properties are more valuable. Hilarity Free market capitalism ensues.

ftfy

[Gyrsur]

What the hell... Finex is bankrupt and now they want a ''Cyprus'' style haircut for all there users  

That must be a easy fix isn't it? Passing the bill to there users to save there own skin.

A lot of people wanted to avoid this kind of corruption, and now it arrives in Bitcoinland. Monkey see monkey do, so others will see how this ''hack'' heist occurs and bail them out = easy money!

Why no press conference? i only see a freaking smokescreen on both sides. I just dont believe it they have been hacked, by-passing privatekeys and 2-3 multi-sigs...yhea right!

did bitstamp haircut their users ?? this will be a new precedence that users take haircuts... i don't really know, but bitfinex says it will be business as usual .

nothin going on here.. just another 120k coin 68M hack. this actually good for bitcoin .

Believe stamp covered the losses internally. Cryptsy is the one that did the haircut

BitStamp was able because of Pantera Capital behind and it was "just" the hotwallet.

[BitofaN1]

Since Bitfinex knows all of the attacker's addresses, couldn't they try to convince the top pool's operators to blacklist them? Wouldn't that be one of the "advantages" of ultra centralized mining?

So, lets play this out.

The top pools decide to blacklist the BitFinex theft addresses (BFTA). Let's say the top 5. Looking at bc.info (I know it's not the best place to get info but whatever), the top 5 pools have about 70.6% of the hash rate over the past 4 days. So any blocks created by them will not include transactions from the BFTA.

But wait, there is still @30% of the network to deal with. As soon as they find a block, transactions from the BFTA are included.

Never fear, the top 5 pools aren't finished yet! They ignore blocks from the puny 30% and refuse to build on them. Now we have miners 51% "attacking" the Bitcoin network to blacklist some coins. I'm sure that won't cause any problems.

The thief probably isn't stupid either. He starts including huge miner's fees (multiple bitcoins per transaction) to include his transactions in the block chain. The small pools keep building their chain earning tons of bitcoins from fees (which are melted into the coinbase rewards). The smaller miners start upping their hash power with their new found income!

We now have two viable chains. One with fungibility, one without. Hey, Bitcoin is like Ethereum now! Exchanges list both coins (they love getting those trading fees, don't they)! BTCa and BTCb can be traded against each other. The free market decides which properties are more valuable. Hilarity ensues.

Hey, after this, we can hard fork both forks with bigger blocks and have four chains. BTCa1mb4eva, BTCa8mb, BTCb1mb4eva, BTCb8mb. The more the merrier!

I can't wait for miners to decide to fuck with the network over some contentious issue. I'm sure, as businessmen, they are ready to assume the risk that they will be mining worthless tokens in the hopes of picking the chain that the market prefers! No risk, no reward, amirite?

Thanks for the answer. I guess if he ramps his fees high enough, even the largest of pools won't be able to resist temptation and soon enough they'll be fighting each other to include his transactions.Human greed is a wonderful thing./s  

[savetherainforest]

Oh... look... the volatility is sh!t... not even a clean 2$ ... its like 1.2$ - 1.3$ .. absolute unsatisfactory!! ...  It will blow so hard... I'm going to prepare my  coffee, fine butter my popcorn and salt it properly for this "très magnifique du jour..."

[poncho32]

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/4vtv1m/bitfinex_down_due_to_bitcoin_security_breach/d64ow17

socialized losses for bitcoin and loans to btc/usd positions. guess we'll know the full facts in a few hours.

Thanks for that link ECB...    The post pretty much states that Bitfinex is going to make a more official update tomorrow, but in the meantime, like you said, Bitfinex is considering a way to socialize losses amongst Bitfinex BTC holders.

 I don't really have a problem with socialized loss in the sense that Bitfinex would later pay back those "losers"... yet, I believe that they are not considering paying back the "losers"...

 I think that it is a bit irresponsible to cause the users to hold the bag... and even though we are finding out some details, we still have to wait for more specifics, which seems to be scheduled to come out tomorrow.

Really the best option for everyone. Other option is to go belly up and then after 4yrs and a bunch of attorney fees you might see some distributions (see Gox). Assuming there'd be a full investigation and it wasn't internal job etc...

We are likely a bit too much speculation regarding various details at the moment because Bitfinex has only provided a rough outline of their intentions - and they also provided one side of the balance sheet without providing some kind of indication of the other side of the balance sheet, which would likely be disclosed in more detail later today.

I guess part of what I am saying, here, is that in order to attempt to achieve more confidence from current account holders and future account holders, they have to disclose enough details in order to inspire some confidence that they are being reasonable.  

I don't think that we can come to any kind of conclusion regarding what is best if we do not have some more disclosure, and likely, since they are not a public company, they are going to be somewhat sparse with the level of their disclosure... in other words, they will be disclosing mostly from an attempt to retain business rather than any kind of actual obligation to disclose.

One last point, Bitfinex is already somewhat known for being a bit shady; however, so far (at least up until this latest incident), their shadiness had not prevented them from accumulating a lot of bitcoins in their trust and to build a large volume of USD/BTC trade.  Maybe some of that trade is fake, but it is likely a lot more representative of reality than some of the other chinese exchanges (Ok coin and Huobi, for example).  So, their known shadiness causes me to speculate that they are continue to be less than fully transparent, and so no matter what there are going to continue to be theories and speculation regarding whether some of this is an inside job, and perhaps if they do not propose some kind of publicly acceptable plan forward with sufficient details, their history along with this latest incident and perhaps inadequate plan will contribute towards their demise.  I remain with my proposition that the most likely appropriate plan forward is to at least attempt to show that they are coming really close to fully compensating all affected users - otherwise they will lose credibility from the big investors.  They don't actually have to carry out such plan, merely just put forth such plan to create such an impression that they plan to fully compensate (or close to fully compensate) everyone who was negatively affected.

They really don't have many option. Coins are gone, either they make everyone whole, compromise, or declare bankruptcy. Those are really all your options.

As far as compromise need to find a thin line between appeasing pissed off investors and staying solvent. They were THE LARGES BTC/USD exchange by volume so all that talk about loosing trust is irrelevant/FUD sure some trust was lost but clearly not enough to have much effect judging by their volume which i believe to be pretty accurate.

As far as giving everyone a haircut without issuing IOUs or finexcoins with a plan to repay is also suicidal, that's pretty much a definition of being insolvent. So naturally come to the same conclusion as cryptsy in the similar situation. Everyone gets an IOU coins

Bter gave everyone IOU coins to cover the losses from its hack. Unfortunately it only made one or two tiny repayments then stopped paying people back. It's still running but it has very low volume now. Finex might find it can't afford to buy back IOU coins if it loses volume. It could become a zombie exchange like Bter.

[Pbitcoin]

Why is bitfinex still showing NULL on preev and other exchange tickers?
Is it still down as an exchange??? This going to be indefinitely? If so which exchange is going to pick up the slack from them in this time of uncertainty?

[DaRude]

What the hell... Finex is bankrupt and now they want a ''Cyprus'' style haircut for all there users  

That must be a easy fix isn't it? Passing the bill to there users to save there own skin.

A lot of people wanted to avoid this kind of corruption, and now it arrives in Bitcoinland. Monkey see monkey do, so others will see how this ''hack'' heist occurs and bail them out = easy money!

Why no press conference? i only see a freaking smokescreen on both sides. I just dont believe it they have been hacked, by-passing privatekeys and 2-3 multi-sigs...yhea right!

did bitstamp haircut their users ?? this will be a new precedence that users take haircuts... i don't really know, but bitfinex says it will be business as usual .

nothin going on here.. just another 120k coin 68M hack. this actually good for bitcoin .

Believe stamp covered the losses internally. Cryptsy is the one that did the haircut

BitStamp was able because of Pantera Capital behind and it was "just" the hotwallet.

Read a story somewhere™ that hotwallet theft is so common exchanges don't even report it, but just write it off as cost of business. Which kinda makes sense if you only keep say 5% of coins hot.

[DaRude]

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/4vtv1m/bitfinex_down_due_to_bitcoin_security_breach/d64ow17

socialized losses for bitcoin and loans to btc/usd positions. guess we'll know the full facts in a few hours.

Thanks for that link ECB...    The post pretty much states that Bitfinex is going to make a more official update tomorrow, but in the meantime, like you said, Bitfinex is considering a way to socialize losses amongst Bitfinex BTC holders.

 I don't really have a problem with socialized loss in the sense that Bitfinex would later pay back those "losers"... yet, I believe that they are not considering paying back the "losers"...

 I think that it is a bit irresponsible to cause the users to hold the bag... and even though we are finding out some details, we still have to wait for more specifics, which seems to be scheduled to come out tomorrow.

Really the best option for everyone. Other option is to go belly up and then after 4yrs and a bunch of attorney fees you might see some distributions (see Gox). Assuming there'd be a full investigation and it wasn't internal job etc...

We are likely a bit too much speculation regarding various details at the moment because Bitfinex has only provided a rough outline of their intentions - and they also provided one side of the balance sheet without providing some kind of indication of the other side of the balance sheet, which would likely be disclosed in more detail later today.

I guess part of what I am saying, here, is that in order to attempt to achieve more confidence from current account holders and future account holders, they have to disclose enough details in order to inspire some confidence that they are being reasonable.  

I don't think that we can come to any kind of conclusion regarding what is best if we do not have some more disclosure, and likely, since they are not a public company, they are going to be somewhat sparse with the level of their disclosure... in other words, they will be disclosing mostly from an attempt to retain business rather than any kind of actual obligation to disclose.

One last point, Bitfinex is already somewhat known for being a bit shady; however, so far (at least up until this latest incident), their shadiness had not prevented them from accumulating a lot of bitcoins in their trust and to build a large volume of USD/BTC trade.  Maybe some of that trade is fake, but it is likely a lot more representative of reality than some of the other chinese exchanges (Ok coin and Huobi, for example).  So, their known shadiness causes me to speculate that they are continue to be less than fully transparent, and so no matter what there are going to continue to be theories and speculation regarding whether some of this is an inside job, and perhaps if they do not propose some kind of publicly acceptable plan forward with sufficient details, their history along with this latest incident and perhaps inadequate plan will contribute towards their demise.  I remain with my proposition that the most likely appropriate plan forward is to at least attempt to show that they are coming really close to fully compensating all affected users - otherwise they will lose credibility from the big investors.  They don't actually have to carry out such plan, merely just put forth such plan to create such an impression that they plan to fully compensate (or close to fully compensate) everyone who was negatively affected.

They really don't have many option. Coins are gone, either they make everyone whole, compromise, or declare bankruptcy. Those are really all your options.

As far as compromise need to find a thin line between appeasing pissed off investors and staying solvent. They were THE LARGES BTC/USD exchange by volume so all that talk about loosing trust is irrelevant/FUD sure some trust was lost but clearly not enough to have much effect judging by their volume which i believe to be pretty accurate.

As far as giving everyone a haircut without issuing IOUs or finexcoins with a plan to repay is also suicidal, that's pretty much a definition of being insolvent. So naturally come to the same conclusion as cryptsy in the similar situation. Everyone gets an IOU coins

Bter gave everyone IOU coins to cover the losses from its hack. Unfortunately it only made one or two tiny repayments then stopped paying people back. It's still running but it has very low volume now. Finex might find it can't afford to buy back IOU coins if it loses volume. It could become a zombie exchange like Bter.

True, there's a chance of this happening if they over estimate customer loyalty. But honestly what's the cost of running an exchange? Minimal staff, and renting an server rack? It was the biggest BTCUSD exchange out there. And even in that case, assuming no bad intent from Finex's side, people would still be better off than bankruptcy where you maybe get those same coins 4yrs later after attorneys are done getting as much as they can from it   

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Bter gave everyone IOU coins to cover the losses from its hack. Unfortunately it only made one or two tiny repayments then stopped paying people back. It's still running but it has very low volume now. Finex might find it can't afford to buy back IOU coins if it loses volume. It could become a zombie exchange like Bter.

Those are good points, and a couple of points.  First, Bter had never reached as large of a level as bitfinex, so bitfinex would likely be able to fake it until they make it longer than Bter.  Second, I think that the punchline for bitfinex is coming up with a plan that seems plausible and will attempt to minimize the loss of confidence in them.

[Holliday]

*Edit: This could basically set a precedent for all the black listed transaction to be put under scrutiny and surveillance. Hence the coins to be worthless and 100% probably confiscated in a unknown future transaction.

Thief creates transaction with .2 btc in fees every block. Fee is melted into coin base rewards. Next ten years of coin base rewards are blacklisted. Miners can't profit. Bitcoin network ceases to exist! LOL!

How many coins have been blacklisted from the countless other thefts in the history of Bitcoin? How many confiscated?

[LogHangingConsortium]

I think that the punchline for bitfinex is coming up with a plan that seems plausible and will attempt to minimize the loss of confidence in them.

I don't think there is any loss in confidence. On the contrary, Director Zane Tuckett stepped up to the plate and hit one right outta the ballpark with his honest, direct straight-up low-down. Me and ...other like-minded individuals who are not me have personally upvoted all of his posts.

Confidence and enthusiasm, ladies and germs, ha ha! We're practically giving them away. Hell, we ARE givin' 'em away! How do we do it? Volume! Volume!

Remember how people used to trade Gox coins? There must be a way to do this with BFX?

How much y'all think a BFX BTC is worth now?

[savetherainforest]

*Edit: This could basically set a precedent for all the black listed transaction to be put under scrutiny and surveillance. Hence the coins to be worthless and 100% probably confiscated in a unknown future transaction.

Thief creates transaction with .2 btc in fees every block. Fee is melted into coin base rewards. Next ten years of coin base rewards are blacklisted. Miners can't profit. Bitcoin network ceases to exist! LOL!

How many coins have been blacklisted from the countless other thefts in the history of Bitcoin? How many confiscated?

If there is a paper-trail of the legitimacy of the original ownership... You can probably recover and confiscate those coins from anyone who own them in the future... even if its 0.00023505BTC   from a 23.42509251BTC part of a coin. This will force people to check some apps that verify the legitimacy of the coins, to not be black listed in the international white market community. Or... the thieves will have a black-list market where they will use only black-listed coins for transactions.

*Edit: And it will be like drugs and DEA ... where they are infiltrated in illegal transactions to find out new coins that are not on the white market. Basically like doing exploration/expedition for new mineral resources in the precious metal/petroleum industries.

*Edit2: I can already see an Interpol/DEA entity/institution founded by the BTCitcoin white-listed market founder community, that are set to hunt all the black-listed transactions. To confiscate them and turn them in to the white-listed transaction market.