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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26836926 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Karartma1
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December 11, 2016, 02:41:50 PM

The ECB has refused the Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena bank extra time to raise money to avoid bankruptcy. That means the bank will have to be bailed-in with some of its own depositors money before the Italian government can give it any bailout money. The EU rules won't let a state bail out a bank before its had a bail-in. A bank bail-in will be bullish for Bitcoin, and it's on the cards.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2016/12/09/monte-dei-paschi-the-agony-of-italys-oldest-bank/#41693e027436

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Trading in the shares of Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena (MPS) was suspended today when the share price tumbled on news that the ECB had refused to give the bank an additional five weeks to raise 5bn euros in new capital. Government bailout is almost certain now.
Many Italian banks are so connected to the Monte Dei Paschi Di Siena (MPS): if this one falls other may follow. Consider that after the Referendum Italy is waiting for a new government. If I was Italian I'd be very worried right now
Sundark
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December 11, 2016, 03:22:06 PM

I used to be a big proponent of gold and silver but I don't see them going to those valuations.
Crypto currencies are the future.
Unless we will see another exchange hack or some other shit news will cause bitcoin price to go down by 50%.
With gold or silver you don't have to worry that gold exchange could be hacked.
Torque
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December 11, 2016, 03:24:45 PM

I used to be a big proponent of gold and silver but I don't see them going to those valuations.
Crypto currencies are the future.
Unless we will see another exchange hack or some other shit news will cause bitcoin price to go down by 50%.
With gold or silver you don't have to worry that gold exchange could be hacked, because the gold derivative price is fixed by colluding bank cartels and the underlying physical gold isn't there any longer anyway. The whole PMs market is one giant, global Ponzi scam.

FTFY
gentlemand
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December 11, 2016, 03:29:38 PM

FTFY

Anyone with operating sensory organs knows that the gold market is rigged and largely fictional. As long as you can continue to draw money out of it then everyone will continue collectively playing along just like all the other financial systems.
Fatov
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December 11, 2016, 04:47:59 PM

They already have all loosed in Bitfinex ...  Grin


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CN4RdrN80ic


What happen with bitfinex??? Some thread with a good resume?
r0ach
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December 11, 2016, 05:09:32 PM

because the gold derivative price is fixed by colluding bank cartels and the underlying physical gold isn't there any longer anyway. The whole PMs market is one giant, global Ponzi scam.

The death of the dollar is set in stone now with what's happening in the bond markets.  No foreign countries want worthless US debt paper at all anymore.  They're not only not buying it, they're also dumping the ones they already have.  When the debt market has no buyers, the interest rates skyrocket, then the price to service the debt exceeds what can be paid and the debt is defaulted on.  Or they can just print and buy their own bonds, monetizing the debt and end in hyperinflation.

Regardless of how it plays out, the end is drawing near for the dollar and metals are going to the moon soon.  There might be a deflationary crash as all the debts are defaulted on that takes the price of everything down, but there's no way I'm sitting on the sidelines with worthless fiat waiting to buy that when there will be bank holidays and capital controls when it happens preventing you from doing anything.  

There may also be a surprise new Bretton Woods that comes out of nowhere where they just revalue gold at $10,000 - $20,000 overnight.  Having 0 metals or sitting on the sideline waiting for a deflationary crash to buy isn't a very good idea.  I use metals as a savings account (specifically silver) and Bitcoin as a checking account because there is no way possible Bitcoin is lower on Exter's inverse pyramid than gold and silver are:



It is also pointless to buy gold over silver right now:

If every millionaire hedged 1% of their wealth into Bitcoin, the price would be around $8000 per coin fully liquid, fully capitalized.  But markets aren't fully liquid, so the price per coin would be something like 10x that at maybe $80,000 per coin.  So a +100x from current price.

Now, looking at metals instead, if they do a new Bretton Woods, they would take gold to at least $20,000 at the 40% historical backing rate.  The GSR (gold to silver ratio) would spike somewhere between 15:1 to 30:1 off that, putting silver anywhere from $666-$1333.  That is a +39 to +78x.  As you can see, the upside on silver for wealth transferrence is basically the same as Bitcoin while otherwise having far less risk attributes.  

Gold and silver move at something like 0.85 correlation and it's much easier to move the silver market than gold.  Whatever happens to gold, silver is coming along for the ride.  You've seen how easy it is to move the Bitcoin market and the silver market cap is barely even larger than BTC.

People who are familiar with metals also tend to completely ignore gold and buy only silver when the GSR is over 50:1, then dump silver for gold when the GSR is 30:1 or lower.  If the price of gold spiked to some insane number and the silver price had not caught up, everyone and their mom will immediately dump gold to buy the undervalued silver.  There is no viable situation in the universe where the price of gold skyrockets and silver doesn't.

For actual market analysts and traders, the GSR charts have a hard triple top right under a hard double top, indicating there is nowhere for the value of silver to go except up in relation to gold and that it will likely return to 30:1 or lower in the near future:



After it breaks into the 20's:1 area, that's when people will start dumping silver for gold and it reverses to start the cycle all over again.

If we have a deflationary crash rather than hyperinflation, the DOW floor is around 6000.  The historical DOW to gold ratio seems to trend to around 3-5:1, so even in a deflationary crash the value of gold can still go to $2000, which would probably take silver to a 30:1 GSR of $66.



TLDR:  There is no point whatsoever in buying gold over silver right now.

TLDR2:  Trust nobody, especially some greaseball with a pinky ring named Martin Armstrong
r0ach
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December 11, 2016, 07:04:38 PM

r0ach is legendary now? Abandon ship   Cheesy


I find him entertaining...  Cheesy Cheesy ...  When the 5th Reich emerges, he will probably have his own battalion. So... I guess you should get in his good graces today and cash in your investment when the day comes!  Roll Eyes

rjclarke2000
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December 11, 2016, 08:03:15 PM

I bought thousands of pounds worth of silver when it was at $30.



What a dickhead
r0ach
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December 11, 2016, 08:24:58 PM

I bought thousands of pounds worth of silver when it was at $30.



What a dickhead

I bought all mine under $20, but even the big names in silver like David Morgan and Mike Maloney have bought silver at much higher prices than now.  People like Mike Maloney have bought at $5, but they also bought at $30.  David Morgan also has $30 silver.  In the end you will still do well if you're patient because the price of metals is going astronomically high when the debt markets implode.
becoin
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December 11, 2016, 08:27:08 PM

I bought thousands of pounds worth of silver when it was at $30.



What a dickhead

Patience. You'll have thousand % profit in just 2-3 years.
r0ach
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December 11, 2016, 08:35:04 PM

It's also plain as day to see what's going on with metals.  You HAVE to rig the price of metals in order to try and force NIRP/ZIRP on people, and that's exactly what they've done, manipulated them down even lower than their already manipulated low prices.  They're currently on sale for like 30-40% off their usual manipulation state:



The fact they would attempt this manipulation going even further than the normal manipulation indicates we are in the endgame and they aren't worried about having to make good on any paper promises or claims on unallocated gold with 100 or more owners for every 1 bar.
rjclarke2000
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December 11, 2016, 08:35:57 PM

I bought thousands of pounds worth of silver when it was at $30.



What a dickhead

Patience. You'll have thousand % profit in just 2-3 years.



Well I can't afford to sell it all anyway. It was a large amount.

Stupid really


Edit. I should have said I can't afford to sell it at a loss knowing it will go up eventually
Fakhoury
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December 11, 2016, 10:00:16 PM

becoin
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December 11, 2016, 10:23:35 PM

I bought thousands of pounds worth of silver when it was at $30.



What a dickhead

Patience. You'll have thousand % profit in just 2-3 years.



Well I can't afford to sell it all anyway. It was a large amount.

Stupid really


Edit. I should have said I can't afford to sell it at a loss knowing it will go up eventually

Where do you safely store such a large amount of silver?
JayJuanGee
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December 11, 2016, 10:59:33 PM
Last edit: December 12, 2016, 12:00:41 AM by JayJuanGee

They already have all loosed in Bitfinex ...  Grin


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CN4RdrN80ic

[http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img921/333/Phjezl.jpg[/img]
What happen with bitfinex??? Some thread with a good resume?

They said they have been "hacked". Months ago. Were you asleep ?
People who still store any amount over there deserve to lose it all. It will happen.

ghdp:  I doubt that the Bitfinex situation is as gloomy and doomy as you are making it out to be.

Yeah, there is considerable potential for considerable and ongoing shenanigans going on with regards to Bitfinex, but there is also a very interesting scenario, as well.

Factually speaking, this whole Bitfinex situation is playing out in a very unique kind of way and a bit innovative and outside of normal scenarios and even normal expectations.

Sure, there are a lot of folks who are suggesting that Bitfinex is running one scam over another scam over another scam in order to divert attention while they run off with the coins, but it seems also clear that if they had wanted to run off with a significant number of coins, they would have already been able to do that in August - but yeah, maybe they are still working on perfecting their exit strategy... who knows?  I kind of doubt that the situation is either as dire as the bitfinex naysayers are describing it to be (which you seem to be in that camp) nor as rosey as the bitfinex public relations folks like to attempt to make out.


Regarding the actual heist, whether that was an inside job or not remains a bit of a mystery.

They had nearly 120,000 user coins go missing, which represented about $72 million dollars in value at the time (120k x $600).  They stated that represented about 36% of all user assets/funds on their site, which would be about $2billion $200 million (Edited correction to my napkin math).

Their innovative step was to cause the users to bear the loss, while creating a compensation system that would in theory allow the potential for users to be compensated or to potentially trade the assets, representing the measured compensation, measured in BFX tokens.  Yeah, sure a bit of a clusterfuck because "compensated" users would come to varying decisions regarding the present or future value of the "compensation" and some users would have different terms than others (for example, USA customers could sell their "compensation" but they could not buy back).  They have also created an equity system in which users could trade their BFX for RRT, and yeah, additional complication and potential for confusion regarding present or future value of such additional tokens.

Over the past 5 months, Bitfinex has paid out about 5.5% of the outstanding BFX tokens at 100% of their initial assessment value, which creates additional possibilities for insider trading, yet has served as a kind of tangible compensation mechanism.

Whether Bitfinex is going to "go under" or not or be hacked again remain decent questions, yet those outcomes are no way near any kind of certainty such as hypothesized by ghdp.

There certainly seem to have been some changes in Bitfinex, and their relative trading volume seems to returned to very similar pre-"hack" levels..  We cannot really know for sure if some of those measurements are fake or not, but their "recovery" plan does seem to continue to have some legs and some potential for success...   There remains a risk with holding coins on any exchange, and probably the risk on Bitfinex is a bit greater than some of the other major exchanges, yet it is likely not so significant of a risk differential on Bitfinex to cause a blanket conclusion against holding coins  there because there seem to remain considerable ways to profit from trading some coins there (and also some arbitrage opportunities from time to time).  

I personally had thought that it would have been good for Bitfinex to employ some additional low fee trading strategies and other mechanisms to attempt to attract new users and to increase retention of old user, but maybe in the end, those kinds of incentive mechanisms play out as a kind of double edged sword in which they may not necessarily cause the expected results.  It is quite likely that Bitfinex managers have employed considerable breadth in their deliberations about going forward strategies (whether there was some kind of insider jobs going on or not) - by the way with the present price of bitcoin hovering around $770, and the fact that the hack caused BTC prices to drop into the mid $400s (very temporarily), caused additional ways that insiders could have schemed bitfinex customers (these are potential bitfinex corruption and disingenuousness scenarios, but currently, they are not conclusively demonstrated by any tangible evidence).

rjclarke2000
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December 11, 2016, 11:04:01 PM

I bought thousands of pounds worth of silver when it was at $30.



What a dickhead

Patience. You'll have thousand % profit in just 2-3 years.



Well I can't afford to sell it all anyway. It was a large amount.

Stupid really


Edit. I should have said I can't afford to sell it at a loss knowing it will go up eventually

Where do you safely store such a large amount of silver?



In more than one place and not even easy for me to get my hands on it
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December 11, 2016, 11:23:58 PM

Regarding the actual heist, whether that was an inside job or not remains a bit of a mystery.

They had nearly 120,000 user coins go missing, which represented about $72 million dollars in value at the time (120k x $600).  They stated that represented about 36% of all user assets/funds on their site, which would be about $2billion.

Minus a zero (200mn).
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December 11, 2016, 11:32:07 PM
Last edit: December 12, 2016, 08:53:44 PM by bitebits


The 'war on cash' is really starting. Can recommend watching Andrea's Antonopoulos recent talk about this very subject.
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December 11, 2016, 11:47:37 PM

Regarding the actual heist, whether that was an inside job or not remains a bit of a mystery.

They had nearly 120,000 user coins go missing, which represented about $72 million dollars in value at the time (120k x $600).  They stated that represented about 36% of all user assets/funds on their site, which would be about $2billion.

Minus a zero (200mn).


Oh... woops.. thanks for that correction.  I was thinking that $2billion seemed like quite a lot.    I'm gonna  correct it in the original post in order to not accidentally mislead anyone.
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December 12, 2016, 12:06:09 AM


And it's all for our favor, in our bullish thread, I've submitted a ZH article about why there is war on cash.
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