Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[calme]

715 support on stamp already broke today so doing so again would be np

[harrymmmm]

But I'm surprised at how much attention he got. Anyone who used cryptography like ... ever ... knew there were guaranteed ways for him to prove he was satoshi (ar at least that he owned a bunch of early coinbases).

i don't think there's any way to prove you're satoshi any more. someone else could control whatever keys, most of his accounts have been cracked anyway and whoever really wanted to go the extra mile has had years to come up with their 'evidence'.

If 'going the xtra mile' means producing a private key that actually proves access to those early coinbase outputs, then he would need a helluva lot of years to come up with it. Like the lifetime of the universe.

This is what I meant. People don't actually understand what crypto can do.
Math is solid. No opinions necessary.

[starmman]

715 support on stamp already broke today so doing so again would be np

That would make me happy - price is too high for me at the minute - could do with the price dropping to around 670 which would push up a lot of alt prices.

[European Central Bank]

If 'going the xtra mile' means producing a private key that actually proves access to those early coinbase outputs, then he would need a helluva lot of years to come up with it. Like the lifetime of the universe.

This is what I meant. People don't actually understand what crypto can do.
Math is solid. No opinions necessary.

nope. if someone had the private key the only thing that means is that they have satoshi's private key. they could've found it, been sent it, bought it, tortured it out of him. anyone on the planet could do that.

that doesn't prove you're satoshi by any means.

by extra mile i mean providing research and evidence you'd been looking into bitcoin's creation for years before.

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

it's hard for me to determine the relevancy of Bitstamp. Stamp was the exchange that screamed "dump time," given the ascending wedge. And yet, the big mainland exchanges in fact dumped.

I doubt that one exchange is controlling anything, even if there was one exchange that lead a specific price action.

The fact of the matter remains that once Stamp dumped, others were willing to follow, rather than to just leave Stamp out there on its own.

In other words, the other exchanges were prepared for such a dump... so it did not really matter that much which of the exchanges started it out, whether it was Stamp or some other exchange, and by the time the dump began to happen, the whole market was more or less ready for such a simultaneous dump.

A question now remains about whether such dump is over or do we have more dumping coming in the coming hours, days or week?  Otherwise, we could prepare for some additional upwards movement.

Personally, I sense that, absent some fairly significant news or FUD, even if some additional dumping occurs, it's going to be quite difficult to bring BTC prices below $650 and there is likely going to be additional support in the $680 range that needs to be overcome to get us into the mid-$600s in the first place....never say never, but there is likely decent incentives for dumping to force the closing of some longs, if such forcing is possible.

[harrymmmm]

If 'going the xtra mile' means producing a private key that actually proves access to those early coinbase outputs, then he would need a helluva lot of years to come up with it. Like the lifetime of the universe.

This is what I meant. People don't actually understand what crypto can do.
Math is solid. No opinions necessary.

nope. if someone had the private key the only thing that means is that they have satoshi's private key. they could've found it, been sent it, bought it, tortured it out of him. anyone on the planet could do that.

that doesn't prove you're satoshi by any means.

by extra mile i mean providing research and evidence you'd been looking into bitcoin's creation for years before.

Faking the kind of 'evidence' you're looking for is far easier than faking private keys.

Sure, the key could have been tortured out of him. Systems always surround the crypto guarantees and that environment doesn't have the same guarantees.
This being a trading thread and all means you'd prolly be more interested in the person who had the keys in that case, rather than if that person wrote the original bitcoin code.

If you were craig wright and you had those keys (you tortured satoshi), wouldn't you use them to prove that you had access to the coinbase outputs? After all, you're trying to prove you are the man.
CW made no such attempt ... I'm ignoring the ridiculously contrived meeting in a dark room. That was all just theater.

[calme]

it's hard for me to determine the relevancy of Bitstamp. Stamp was the exchange that screamed "dump time," given the ascending wedge. And yet, the big mainland exchanges in fact dumped.

I doubt that one exchange is controlling anything, even if there was one exchange that lead a specific price action.

The fact of the matter remains that once Stamp dumped, others were willing to follow, rather than to just leave Stamp out there on its own.

In other words, the other exchanges were prepared for such a dump... so it did not really matter that much which of the exchanges started it out, whether it was Stamp or some other exchange, and by the time the dump began to happen, the whole market was more or less ready for such a simultaneous dump.

A question now remains about whether such dump is over or do we have more dumping coming in the coming hours, days or week?  Otherwise, we could prepare for some additional upwards movement.

Personally, I sense that, absent some fairly significant news or FUD, even if some additional dumping occurs, it's going to be quite difficult to bring BTC prices below $650 and there is likely going to be additional support in the $680 range that needs to be overcome to get us into the mid-$600s in the first place....never say never, but there is likely decent incentives for dumping to force the closing of some longs, if such forcing is possible.

hmm, time will tell. i'm short again but i made a killing shorting overnight so am prepared to lose some of that even if stamp manages to go n. of 730 before more bear time

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

Well, we didn't break 750 for very long and we fell back because of that. Not too terrible, bad place to buy imo but we should be right back up to where we were in a week or less. We're still higher than we were a month and even 2 weeks ago, so that's a start. Dropping below 700 is pretty unlikely imo, but it could happen still.

About three days ago it went down to 730, then went back up again. Today it's gone down to 720, which is only 10 lower. It will probably continue playing ping pong between 700 and 750 for the next few weeks.

For the Chinese traders the price is still holding above 5000 CNY, and as long as it stays above it's not going below $700.

"probably continue playing ping pong between 700 and 750 for the next few weeks"

I wonder what are the odds for such a scenario playing out?

We have a bit of attention to bitcoin and we have some fairly recent price action, and I would probably place the odds at less than 50% (and maybe even less than 1/3) that BTC prices are going to stay between $700 and $750 for a "few weeks." 

Even though weekly trade volume remains a bit mediocre, there is some exciting price movement in the air... and seemingly ongoing and upwards price pressures.  If bears are going to want to stifle this current upwards price pressures, they are going to need to invest a bit more into such stifling attempts, and I question if they have enough ammunition and/or balls to be willing to risk taking such a loss at these price points, especially if they consider that the less resistant path seems to be upwards (so compare the direction that is most likely to be profitable).  In other words, beginning such a battle to attempt to bring BTC prices down and to reverse the upward pressures in the $770 to $850 price range seems a bit more feasible, at least, to me, ongoing upward price pressures seems to be the current dynamics.

[calme]

i still wonder if a domino effect of long liquidations is what will ultimately spur the uber rally

[JimboToronto]

I was going to post this in the "We reached $1000CAD again!" thread but it seems to be locked so I'll post it here instead.
_____

Today's little dip not only dropped us back to triple digits, it took us all the way down to $973CAD. That was a drop of more than $50.

Now we're back up to over $991 and rising. Hopefully we'll be back over a grand tonight.

That $1000 represents 80% of the ATH. Onward and hopefully upward.

[becoin]

i'm short again but i made a killing shorting overnight so am prepared to lose some of that even if stamp manages to go n. of 630 before more bear time

hmmm, i still wonder if a domino effect of short liquidations is what will ultimately spur the uber rally?

[the artful bodger]

Well, we didn't break 750 for very long and we fell back because of that. Not too terrible, bad place to buy imo but we should be right back up to where we were in a week or less. We're still higher than we were a month and even 2 weeks ago, so that's a start. Dropping below 700 is pretty unlikely imo, but it could happen still.

About three days ago it went down to 730, then went back up again. Today it's gone down to 720, which is only 10 lower. It will probably continue playing ping pong between 700 and 750 for the next few weeks.

For the Chinese traders the price is still holding above 5000 CNY, and as long as it stays above it's not going below $700.

"probably continue playing ping pong between 700 and 750 for the next few weeks"

I wonder what are the odds for such a scenario playing out?

..... I would probably place the odds at less than 50% (and maybe even less than 1/3)

........, there is some exciting price movement in the air...

When everyone is excited uᴉoɔʇᴉq tends to stagnate, when everyone is bored uᴉoɔʇᴉq tends to unexpectedly pump. Often uᴉoɔʇᴉq trading patterns occur back to front, and upside down from what everyone expects. I would place the odds of uᴉoɔʇᴉq price stagnation at over 50% because everyone else is betting on it going up or down.

[calme]

i'm short again but i made a killing shorting overnight so am prepared to lose some of that even if stamp manages to go n. of 630 before more bear time

hmmm, i still wonder if a domino effect of short liquidations is what will ultimately spur the uber rally?

well it doesn't have to be either or. basically, something like an abc correction spurred by longs getting toasted, then shorts get toasted on way up

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

I feel strongly that this may be the last time btc gets anywhere near sub-700 ever again.

Buy the dip. No, really.

Finally, you are saying something that makes sense... hahahahahhaha   

[PoolMinor]

When everyone it excited uᴉoɔʇᴉq tends to stagnate, when everyone is bored uᴉoɔʇᴉq tends to unexpectedly pump. Often uᴉoɔʇᴉq trading patterns occur back to front, and upside down from what everyone expects. I would place the odds of uᴉoɔʇᴉq price stagnation at over 50% because everyone else is betting on it going up or down.

What are you talking about I clearly stated yesterday that the StochRSI had indicated overbought. This in laymen terms means a great time to short.

[calme]

one man's "buy the dip" is the next man's "short the bounce" 

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

Well, we didn't break 750 for very long and we fell back because of that. Not too terrible, bad place to buy imo but we should be right back up to where we were in a week or less. We're still higher than we were a month and even 2 weeks ago, so that's a start. Dropping below 700 is pretty unlikely imo, but it could happen still.

About three days ago it went down to 730, then went back up again. Today it's gone down to 720, which is only 10 lower. It will probably continue playing ping pong between 700 and 750 for the next few weeks.

For the Chinese traders the price is still holding above 5000 CNY, and as long as it stays above it's not going below $700.

"probably continue playing ping pong between 700 and 750 for the next few weeks"

I wonder what are the odds for such a scenario playing out?

..... I would probably place the odds at less than 50% (and maybe even less than 1/3)

........, there is some exciting price movement in the air...

When everyone it excited uᴉoɔʇᴉq tends to stagnate, when everyone is bored uᴉoɔʇᴉq tends to unexpectedly pump. Often uᴉoɔʇᴉq trading patterns occur back to front, and upside down from what everyone expects. I would place the odds of uᴉoɔʇᴉq price stagnation at over 50% because everyone else is betting on it going up or down.

I will concede to you that bitcoin will frequently perform in ways that go beyond expectations, but that does not mean that it does not follow some very basic principles in terms of trends and difficulties that may be incurred when either attempting to break support or resistance and the actual physical realities that there have to be folks (even manipulators) who have sufficient quantity of coins/fiat that are either on exchanges or easily can get to exchanges to overcome the forces of the other folks who also have coins/fiat there.

Also, sure each of us are entitled to ascribing our own probabilities to various possible outcomes and betting our investment accordingly (or whatever it is that we do to attempt to synchronize our view with our actions).

Regarding your stated view of probabilities, I find it a bit illogical and difficult to grasp when you seem to be asserting something like, a very large number of folks seem to believe that bitcoin is going to volatile into the near future, therefore, it seems more likely than not that bitcoin is not going to be as volatile as everyone else seems to be thinking.  Comes off as a bit nonsensical to me, but hey, as I already conceded, everyone is entitled to his/her own viewpoint.

[Ted E. Bare]

Well, I guess this was a fun little dip for the bears to enjoy with their #alphanumeric accounts.

[unknown04]

Well, I guess this was a fun little dip for the bears to enjoy with their #alphanumeric accounts.

lol, to me, this is just some small dip... not some big crash mentioned by those #alphanumeric accounts... I think it will get back to $750... We'll see...

[JimboToronto]

Well, I guess this was a fun little dip for the bears to enjoy with their #alphanumeric accounts.

lol, to me, this is just some small dip... not some big crash mentioned by those #alphanumeric accounts... I think it will get back to $750... We'll see...

Of course it will get back to $750 and beyond. That's a given. How soon is the only question and my guess is fairly soon.

As for the #alphanumeric accounts, let's not forget the 6-character random part. "Unknown04" is alphanumeric but it's 9 characters long and it's hardly random.

#sixcharacterrandomalphanumeric