Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

This is it, time is up. rewards have been halved, hype is brewing. Bitcoin always going to be bummin' around, and paper $$$ only gets less useful by the day.

In 1 week we will be pushing 800

In 1 year we will be pushing 2400

In 10 years, global economic unity.

Liquid fucking bits

I like your optimism.

I don't know why, when I read Cmacwiz's post, I felt it's really true and it will happen.

O.k... 1 week, possibly $800...

O.k.... possibly, some kind of global economic unity in 10 years, but more likely 30-50 years.. As others have suggested, there can be a lot of different ways that "global economic unity" would play out, and 10 years seems way too soon to sort those kinds of matters out.

Regarding the "pushing 2,400", I think that is a problematic number to be "pushing."  Even though the future does not play out the same as the past, $2400 is an awkward place for BTC.

Once we get passed the mid $800's, the most likely price range would end up in the $3k to $5k territory, and then likely we would have a correction of some sort.

I doubt that we are going to get stuck at $2,400 for any significant time, unless it would be coming back after the correction, which could take a bit more than a year's time to play out.  

On the other hand, it is possible that we could experience a pump into the $3 to $5k range, and then experience a correction that takes place quickly, but causes use to get stuck in the $2,400 range and therefore "pushing" $2400.

Bitcoin is too fragile to be used for 'global economic unity' or anything like that. Try to think in a timespan of beyond 20 years in which it will definitely be hacked/cracked by then or they will find some way to keep the network from functioning in some way or the other. In a best case scenario, we briefly touch something like $20,000 in a speculative bubble before crashing. That is the play here.

Hahahahaha


That is pessimistic.  

Therefore, in your view, if I just HODL my current coins, the best case price appreciation scenario that I could expect with my current coins is 30x....

Oh Fucks!!!!  Seems that I am only going to be 30x more richie with my current BTC.  

[Paashaas]

id like to remind everyone that

SegWit is great for Bitcoin. It brings more transaction throughput, fixes malleability, defrags the UTXO set, makes hardware wallets more secure and most importantly, it enables Lightning which will bring instant low cost Bitcoin transactions to the world. The team at BTCC have been working hard at making their exchange and mining pool services SegWit ready, and everyone else should do the same.

You are correct but people are forgetting one major thing; Bitcoin cannot go mainstream with just bigger blocks. You need something like 1gig blocks to make a shot for it, the internet cant even handle that. Hardforking from 1mb all the way up to 1gig is just a no-go zone, Lightning will fulfill that job because you really want to have high capacity when ''monkey see monkey do'' situation arrives.

This is correct, but: why stop natural growth at 1 MB? It's not like we'll be at 1 MB for 10 years and then BOOOOM, we scale to global level overnight.

There is nothing wrong with bigger blocks, but we need extra layers to make Bitcoin mainstream. Increasing blocks will be much smoother when the community, dev, miners are on the same side.

[DaRude]

This is it, time is up. rewards have been halved, hype is brewing. Bitcoin always going to be bummin' around, and paper $$$ only gets less useful by the day.

In 1 week we will be pushing 800

In 1 year we will be pushing 2400

In 10 years, global economic unity.

Liquid fucking bits

I like your optimism.

I don't know why, when I read Cmacwiz's post, I felt it's really true and it will happen.

You better hope that BTC won't become the "global economic unity". If so even one BTC would be worth hundreds of millions US$ and every current holder would be haunted.

We can decide to just distribute our wealth and fund programs of art, athletics and academics. Maybe invest in renewables research, desalination, etc... We don't all have to Scrooge McDuck our BTC forever.

With regards to my oracle sh!tpost: I hardly can find anything to say, but I'm trying to get that fourth coin next to my username!

I do believe what I said.

Hmm already talking about islands and body doubles. The inverse theory says we must be going down soon?!?!
Plus i'd venture a guess that most here would OD on hookers and blow, way before private islands would get in range

[yefi]

Bitcoin is too fragile to be used for 'global economic unity' or anything like that. Try to think in a timespan of beyond 20 years in which it will definitely be hacked/cracked by then or they will find some way to keep the network from functioning in some way or the other. In a best case scenario, we briefly touch something like $20,000 in a speculative bubble before crashing. That is the play here.

No, you have it the wrong way round. Humans are too fragile to be here in 20 years to use Bitcoin. We will be hacked/cracked or some other way to disrupt our network will be found.

[DaRude]

Is Ether good for btc price?

Huh straight to the point. I'm kinda split on that. From the investment stand point, it's a competitor so it takes market cap away from BTC and has a theoretical potential to dethrone BTC. But currently it's only like 6% of BTCs market cap so not much to worry about yet (if ever). On another hand it's a cryptocoin so it gets publicity to the space, and technically can be seen as a testbed for new proposals to see how technology/market will behave and the good ideas can be cherry picked into BTC  and for the bad ones they can just hard fork and roll back like twice a day and no one cares  

Probably good now, but can start turning bad if they'll start picking up market share say above 25% of BTC

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Bitcoin is too fragile to be used for 'global economic unity' or anything like that. Try to think in a timespan of beyond 20 years in which it will definitely be hacked/cracked by then or they will find some way to keep the network from functioning in some way or the other. In a best case scenario, we briefly touch something like $20,000 in a speculative bubble before crashing. That is the play here.

Maybe so, but maybe not. Let's find out shall we?

..........

.......... Goddamn this is taking too long !  

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland, slept in a little today.

Still stuck pretty much where we've been for 2 weeks... currently $739 on Bitcoinaverage.

Understandably, conversation around here sounds like a bunch of bored people, a little rehashing of the block-size debate, mixed with random bullish enthusiasm and bearish trolling.

I'll be happier to get back to quadruple digits Canadian (currently $994CAD) but if I have to wait a little longer I won't lose any sleep over it.

November is almost over and it's looking like it'll end up where it began. Ho freaking hum.

[molecular]

Bitcoin is too fragile to be used for 'global economic unity' or anything like that. Try to think in a timespan of beyond 20 years in which it will definitely be hacked/cracked by then or they will find some way to keep the network from functioning in some way or the other. In a best case scenario, we briefly touch something like $20,000 in a speculative bubble before crashing. That is the play here.

Agree, one last hurra and bust seems possible.

I don't think that's how it's going to go down. I'm much more optimistic.

[molecular]

id like to remind everyone that

SegWit is great for Bitcoin. It brings more transaction throughput, fixes malleability, defrags the UTXO set, makes hardware wallets more secure and most importantly, it enables Lightning which will bring instant low cost Bitcoin transactions to the world. The team at BTCC have been working hard at making their exchange and mining pool services SegWit ready, and everyone else should do the same.

You are correct but people are forgetting one major thing; Bitcoin cannot go mainstream with just bigger blocks. You need something like 1gig blocks to make a shot for it, the internet cant even handle that. Hardforking from 1mb all the way up to 1gig is just a no-go zone, Lightning will fulfill that job because you really want to have high capacity when ''monkey see monkey do'' situation arrives.

This is correct, but: why stop natural growth at 1 MB? It's not like we'll be at 1 MB for 10 years and then BOOOOM, we scale to global level overnight.

There is nothing wrong with bigger blocks, but we need extra layers to make Bitcoin mainstream.

I agree.

Increasing blocks will be much smoother when the community, dev, miners are on the same side.

What side? The side that wants to keep the 1 MB blocksize limit? You're saying we should all agree to that in order to remove that limit? What twisted logic is used here?

[Karartma1]

Good morning Bitcoinland, slept in a little today.

Still stuck pretty much where we've been for 2 weeks... currently $739 on Bitcoinaverage.

Understandably, conversation around here sounds like a bunch of bored people, a little rehashing of the block-size debate, mixed with random bullish enthusiasm and bearish trolling.

I'll be happier to get back to quadruple digits Canadian (currently $994CAD) but if I have to wait a little longer I won't lose any sleep over it.

November is almost over and it's looking like it'll end up where it began. Ho freaking hum.

I think you forgot the post apocalyptic/post state era talkings. 
I have to admit I've never thought about that. Time to properly mix some coins here.....

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

Increasing blocks will be much smoother when the community, dev, miners are on the same side.

What side? The side that wants to keep the 1 MB blocksize limit? You're saying we should all agree to that in order to remove that limit? What twisted logic is used here?

It seems likely that we can see that the premise of a discussion everyone being on the same page is a bit off base, and the foundation of bitcoin's set up or governance is not really needing folks to be on the same page.. , so if they are not largely on the same page, then the status quo continues.. and if there are enough of them on the same page seg wit goes forward and if there are enough of them that believe that a blocksize limit increase is a good idea, then that goes forward.  It can take a long time to play out to get from discussion of a topic, creation of code, testing and vetting the code and then getting a considerable amount of agreement (consensus level) on it's activation.

Surely, seg wit is much further along the road towards consensus than any blocksize limit increase... and sure, there could be simultaneous proposals or seg wit could get pulled and revised if that course of action seems more likely to achieve consensus.. but at the moment seg wit is on the table, and those who are working towards blocking it don't have feasible code that has gone through the vetting process.  It is pie in the sky to work on a premise that all folks are going to substantially agree - but it is not pie in the sky to recognize that some proposals are further along in the process and have better chances to survive than others.  Even though there are a lot of naysayers regarding seg wit, seg wit seems to have really decent chances of getting activated in the year's time that it is on the table (or alternatively some close version with agreeable tweaks). 

It would not be the end of the world or even close to the end of the world if bitcoin does not achieve consensus on any of the proposed changes in the coming years.  Bitcoin is still going to serve quite well, even though getting closer and closer to activating seg wit would probably be very bullish for bitcoin's prices, because it seems to be a very good next step....

[PoolMinor]

Once we get passed the mid $800's, the most likely price range would end up in the $3k to $5k territory, and then likely we would have a correction of some sort.

Seriously? Are you even trying to make sense anymore? Once we get over the $850 hump Bitcoin cannot be stopped and boom instantly 3k-5k, is this what you are trying to say?

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

Once we get passed the mid $800's, the most likely price range would end up in the $3k to $5k territory, and then likely we would have a correction of some sort.

Seriously? Are you even trying to make sense anymore? Once we get over the $850 hump Bitcoin cannot be stopped and boom instantly 3k-5k, is this what you are trying to say?

If you are summarizing what I said in ways other than what I said, then I said what I am trying to say.  On the other hand, if you are asking me to clarify or to go into more detail, then sure, I am stating my opinion based on a variety of factors, probabilities, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.   And yes, more or less what I am saying, at this time, is that there is likely to be decent BTC price momentum at the point of getting passed the mid $800s... not 100% but decent likelihood. 

I am not saying that anything is certain, but I am saying that it makes less sense, to me, when posters are asserting theories at this particular time and based on probabilities and various knowns and unknowns about BTC price sticking points that are seeming to be less logical than my own.. hahahahaha...
, especially if in our current price point, they are asserting BTC price sticking points in the $900 to $2000 range without providing some kind of explanation or context.. .. and therefore, $2,400 also makes little sense to me, if there is not some kind of context that would justify such an explanation (as I had attempted to provide in my earlier post on the topic).

So, to repeat, my view is not set in stone, and after matters unravel, they can begin to unravel in ways that cause my own theory to no longer make sense because matters may unravel in ways that change the theory and probabilities..

In other words, I have my theories, at this point, that I will revise under changing circumstances and as justified by the happening knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.. and known unknowns are more probable to take place than unknown unknowns, and unknown unknowns can throw monkey wrenches in the tentative theories.  So, yeah, seriously, there are various working ideas that help to plan - even though there is justification that all of the eggs would NOT be put into that basket.

[PoolMinor]

If you are summarizing what I said in ways other than what I said, then I said what I am trying to say.  On the other hand, if you are asking me to clarify or to go into more detail, then sure, I am stating my opinion based on a variety of factors, probabilities, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.   And yes, more or less what I am saying, at this time, is that there is likely to be decent BTC price momentum at the point of getting passed the mid $800s... not 100% but decent likelihood. 

I am not saying that anything is certain, but I am saying that it makes less sense, to me, when posters are asserting theories at this particular time and based on probabilities and various knowns and unknowns about BTC price sticking points that are seeming to be less logical than my own.. hahahahaha...
, especially if in our current price point, they are asserting BTC price sticking points in the $900 to $2000 range without providing some kind of explanation or context.. .. and therefore, $2,400 also makes little sense to me, if there is not some kind of context that would justify such an explanation (as I had attempted to provide in my earlier post on the topic).

So, to repeat, my view is not set in stone, and after matters unravel, they can begin to unravel in ways that cause my own theory to no longer make sense because matters may unravel in ways that change the theory and probabilities..

In other words, I have my theories, at this point, that I will revise under changing circumstances and as justified by the happening knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.. and known unknowns are more probable to take place than unknown unknowns, and unknown unknowns can throw monkey wrenches in the tentative theories.  So, yeah, seriously, there are various working ideas that help to plan - even though there is justification that all of the eggs would NOT be put into that basket.

Sure is a lot of words, when you could have simply stated "no."

[savetherainforest]

Well... this looks nice...

Now what remains is... wait for it... wait for it... wait... for... BTCit...

[Vin]

We are good at waiting 

[Carpeaux]

We may wait forever and become rich cent by cent with daytrading

No need to worry and rise any time soon

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

If you are summarizing what I said in ways other than what I said, then I said what I am trying to say.  On the other hand, if you are asking me to clarify or to go into more detail, then sure, I am stating my opinion based on a variety of factors, probabilities, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.   And yes, more or less what I am saying, at this time, is that there is likely to be decent BTC price momentum at the point of getting passed the mid $800s... not 100% but decent likelihood. 

I am not saying that anything is certain, but I am saying that it makes less sense, to me, when posters are asserting theories at this particular time and based on probabilities and various knowns and unknowns about BTC price sticking points that are seeming to be less logical than my own.. hahahahaha...
, especially if in our current price point, they are asserting BTC price sticking points in the $900 to $2000 range without providing some kind of explanation or context.. .. and therefore, $2,400 also makes little sense to me, if there is not some kind of context that would justify such an explanation (as I had attempted to provide in my earlier post on the topic).

So, to repeat, my view is not set in stone, and after matters unravel, they can begin to unravel in ways that cause my own theory to no longer make sense because matters may unravel in ways that change the theory and probabilities..

In other words, I have my theories, at this point, that I will revise under changing circumstances and as justified by the happening knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.. and known unknowns are more probable to take place than unknown unknowns, and unknown unknowns can throw monkey wrenches in the tentative theories.  So, yeah, seriously, there are various working ideas that help to plan - even though there is justification that all of the eggs would NOT be put into that basket.

Sure is a lot of words, when you could have simply stated "no."

I used as many words as I decided was adequate to respond to the issue.

[harrymmmm]

If you are summarizing what I said in ways other than what I said, then I said what I am trying to say.  On the other hand, if you are asking me to clarify or to go into more detail, then sure, I am stating my opinion based on a variety of factors, probabilities, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.   And yes, more or less what I am saying, at this time, is that there is likely to be decent BTC price momentum at the point of getting passed the mid $800s... not 100% but decent likelihood. 

I am not saying that anything is certain, but I am saying that it makes less sense, to me, when posters are asserting theories at this particular time and based on probabilities and various knowns and unknowns about BTC price sticking points that are seeming to be less logical than my own.. hahahahaha...
, especially if in our current price point, they are asserting BTC price sticking points in the $900 to $2000 range without providing some kind of explanation or context.. .. and therefore, $2,400 also makes little sense to me, if there is not some kind of context that would justify such an explanation (as I had attempted to provide in my earlier post on the topic).

So, to repeat, my view is not set in stone, and after matters unravel, they can begin to unravel in ways that cause my own theory to no longer make sense because matters may unravel in ways that change the theory and probabilities..

In other words, I have my theories, at this point, that I will revise under changing circumstances and as justified by the happening knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.. and known unknowns are more probable to take place than unknown unknowns, and unknown unknowns can throw monkey wrenches in the tentative theories.  So, yeah, seriously, there are various working ideas that help to plan - even though there is justification that all of the eggs would NOT be put into that basket.

Sure is a lot of words, when you could have simply stated "no."

I used as many words as I decided was adequate to respond to the issue.

Heheh.
If you just said 'nuanced no', that would do it.
But then we'd feel like we were cheated.

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

If you are summarizing what I said in ways other than what I said, then I said what I am trying to say.  On the other hand, if you are asking me to clarify or to go into more detail, then sure, I am stating my opinion based on a variety of factors, probabilities, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.   And yes, more or less what I am saying, at this time, is that there is likely to be decent BTC price momentum at the point of getting passed the mid $800s... not 100% but decent likelihood. 

I am not saying that anything is certain, but I am saying that it makes less sense, to me, when posters are asserting theories at this particular time and based on probabilities and various knowns and unknowns about BTC price sticking points that are seeming to be less logical than my own.. hahahahaha...
, especially if in our current price point, they are asserting BTC price sticking points in the $900 to $2000 range without providing some kind of explanation or context.. .. and therefore, $2,400 also makes little sense to me, if there is not some kind of context that would justify such an explanation (as I had attempted to provide in my earlier post on the topic).

So, to repeat, my view is not set in stone, and after matters unravel, they can begin to unravel in ways that cause my own theory to no longer make sense because matters may unravel in ways that change the theory and probabilities..

In other words, I have my theories, at this point, that I will revise under changing circumstances and as justified by the happening knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.. and known unknowns are more probable to take place than unknown unknowns, and unknown unknowns can throw monkey wrenches in the tentative theories.  So, yeah, seriously, there are various working ideas that help to plan - even though there is justification that all of the eggs would NOT be put into that basket.

Sure is a lot of words, when you could have simply stated "no."

I used as many words as I decided was adequate to respond to the issue.

Heheh.
If you just said 'nuanced no', that would do it.
But then we'd feel like we were cheated.

I don't think so.  The more I think about it, the more I conclude that every single word that I used was completely and absolutely necessary.