Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[keithers]

I wonder if we would have seen a dip in prices if Clinton would have gotten elected instead of Trump...

[jaberwock]

I wonder if we would have seen a dip in prices if Clinton would have gotten elected instead of Trump...

guess would not have been different

you know, Obama is doing some anti-russia politics and things would only get worse with Hillary, so the price would increase

also most of the senate and the house would be republican, so the government would not quite stable

[TERA]

anyway back on topic:

Based on the weekly stoch RSI: This is either about to shoot way past ATH or about to crash hard, one or the other, but I can't tell which. I guess this analysis doesn't help me much.

[kurious]

anyway back on topic:

Based on the weekly stoch RSI: This is either about to shoot way past ATH or about to crash hard, one or the other, but I can't tell which. I guess this analysis doesn't help me much.

I suspected that if we passed 750 it would be the start of the ramping up and FOMO, but it is looking lacklustre.

Maybe it is unmentionable OT uncertainties (ahem...) maybe it's just not going to happen but the cup and handle looked perfect and the rise has been steady for a year.  I really thought it would be around now we'd see the new 2013-style run, but it's awfully quiet out there.

I was thinking (as were many) that a run up was inevitable.  Now I haven't a clue... The conditions are good, so why is nothing happening?  A crash would no longer surprise me either, this is Bitcoin, after all.

[Dafar]

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

we are of the opinion that the current Bitcoin development team is not taking satisfactory steps to ensure the growth and advancement of Bitcoin in accordance with satoshi's original white paper.

Instead, Bitcoin is being transformed into a settlement layer, with high fees, and using a labyrinth of complex overlays on top of the basic system.

After years of stagnation, it has become evident that no change will occur. The current Bitcoin development team has prevented the ability to freely discuss the development of Bitcoin by tacitly supporting censorship, and outright banning of developers and community members who differ in opinion.

Since efforts by the community to resolve these problems have failed, it is necessary to resolve them with a different approach.

Sincerely,
The marjory

Fuck off

anyway back on topic:

Based on the weekly stoch RSI: This is either about to shoot way past ATH or about to crash hard, one or the other, but I can't tell which. I guess this analysis doesn't help me much.

I suspected that if we passed 750 it would be the start of the ramping up and FOMO, but it is looking lacklustre.

Maybe it is unmentionable OT uncertainties (ahem...) maybe it's just not going to happen but the cup and handle looked perfect and the rise has been steady for a year.  I really thought it would be around now we'd see the new 2013-style run, but it's awfully quiet out there.

I was thinking (as were many) that a run up was inevitable.  Now I haven't a clue... The conditions are good, so why is nothing happening?  A crash would no longer surprise me either, this is Bitcoin, after all.

Why 750? 780 was the yearly high and critical resistance point right now, that's when the fomo will happen

[PoolMinor]

I see a slight correlation between these two charts, taken from Bitstamp 1wk with KDJ indicator. The main difference I see is volume, StochRSI indicates to me an overbought scenario, still could go higher though.

[kurious]

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

we are of the opinion that the current Bitcoin development team is not taking satisfactory steps to ensure the growth and advancement of Bitcoin in accordance with satoshi's original white paper.

Instead, Bitcoin is being transformed into a settlement layer, with high fees, and using a labyrinth of complex overlays on top of the basic system.

After years of stagnation, it has become evident that no change will occur. The current Bitcoin development team has prevented the ability to freely discuss the development of Bitcoin by tacitly supporting censorship, and outright banning of developers and community members who differ in opinion.

Since efforts by the community to resolve these problems have failed, it is necessary to resolve them with a different approach.

Sincerely,
The marjory

Fuck off

anyway back on topic:

Based on the weekly stoch RSI: This is either about to shoot way past ATH or about to crash hard, one or the other, but I can't tell which. I guess this analysis doesn't help me much.

I suspected that if we passed 750 it would be the start of the ramping up and FOMO, but it is looking lacklustre.

Maybe it is unmentionable OT uncertainties (ahem...) maybe it's just not going to happen but the cup and handle looked perfect and the rise has been steady for a year.  I really thought it would be around now we'd see the new 2013-style run, but it's awfully quiet out there.

I was thinking (as were many) that a run up was inevitable.  Now I haven't a clue... The conditions are good, so why is nothing happening?  A crash would no longer surprise me either, this is Bitcoin, after all.

Why 750? 780 was the yearly high and critical resistance point right now, that's when the fomo will happen

Only because of how long it's been taking to get convincingly over it, I guess.  780? I do hope you're right, but volume right now doesn't look like taking us there yet.

[Kramerc]

anyway back on topic:

Based on the weekly stoch RSI: This is either about to shoot way past ATH or about to crash hard, one or the other, but I can't tell which. I guess this analysis doesn't help me much.

I suspected that if we passed 750 it would be the start of the ramping up and FOMO, but it is looking lacklustre.

Maybe it is unmentionable OT uncertainties (ahem...) maybe it's just not going to happen but the cup and handle looked perfect and the rise has been steady for a year.  I really thought it would be around now we'd see the new 2013-style run, but it's awfully quiet out there.

I was thinking (as were many) that a run up was inevitable.  Now I haven't a clue... The conditions are good, so why is nothing happening?  A crash would no longer surprise me either, this is Bitcoin, after all.

It starts slow only to pick up steam. Volume is showing good signs, constantly increasing on the weekly time frame.

[rjclarke2000]

Are we stuck around the 750 mark? Seems it pushes up and is pushed back again.

And repeat

[Meuh6879]

It's the week-end.
All walls are stuck in air ... (or in the wall ).

[XCASH]

anyway back on topic:

Based on the weekly stoch RSI: This is either about to shoot way past ATH or about to crash hard, one or the other, but I can't tell which. I guess this analysis doesn't help me much.

I suspected that if we passed 750 it would be the start of the ramping up and FOMO, but it is looking lacklustre.

Maybe it is unmentionable OT uncertainties (ahem...) maybe it's just not going to happen but the cup and handle looked perfect and the rise has been steady for a year.  I really thought it would be around now we'd see the new 2013-style run, but it's awfully quiet out there.

I was thinking (as were many) that a run up was inevitable.  Now I haven't a clue... The conditions are good, so why is nothing happening?  A crash would no longer surprise me either, this is Bitcoin, after all.

It starts slow only to pick up steam. Volume is showing good signs, constantly increasing on the weekly time frame.

Bitcoin's been in a slow motion climb. Every step of this cycle has run slower than the 2013 one. I guess a pump above the ATH will take longer than most of us expect. Everyone's cautious after being battered by the long bear market so there are long periods of sideways, or little ups and downs. Maybe Bitcoin needs the slow motion collapse of Italy's banks to result in a bail in before it starts exponentially climbing quickly.

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

   https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/irs-targeting-bitcoin-transaction-records-coinbase-users/

   Got to love the IRS they get butt hurt on an internal Gov't audit and go on a fishing expedition.

   I myself have been 'legal' in the sense of mining btc/ltc as a business since 2013 so not an issue.

   But if they expect everyone to keep track of every bitcoin they ever made and pay 20% capital gains on it.

   Well that could be interesting

It won't be until the next tax reporting year that the price will be up for the year since 2013. Most people will not have yearly gains to declare unless they are traders (not really a CoinBase thing) or they structure their spending differently (LIFO, FIFO, etc). I was going to go through the reporting thing last year but noticed that my spending was lower than my purchases throughout the year. The IRS doesn't care if you don't report losses.

This year I sold my house at a loss so it will more than compensate for any gains I received via spending as the price goes up.

I am still pondering the question, somewhat, regarding what to report to the IRS, when overall, I am in a very similar situation to you, Elwar, at least in regards to my purchasing of bitcoin continues to be greater than my selling of bitcoin (meaning each year I continue to accumulate bitcoin); however, those buying and selling BTC transactions occur over a large number of exchanges and even through private exchanges - but the net effect is that over the year, 2016 included, my quantity of BTC bought remains 1 to 2%, or even a bit more, greater than the amount sold.  I have a personal accounting accros several exchanges, and in years passed, I did not say anything - though my BTC activity has increased quite a bit over this past year.

What do other folks do?  Do you not report the transactions if the buying of BTC ends up being more than the selling?  I can see if the buying and selling is less than $10k, then maybe it may not matter as much, but what if the  buying and selling of BTC is $20k or more ?  For example, you buy $23k but you sell $20k (i know that it about 15% difference), but you could also buy $53k and sell $50k, and that would be a 6% difference but ultimately not taxable because you have bought more than you sold and therefore no realizable gain in fiat.

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

Price has made 4 strong runs up to $751 this week and stalled out. This wall is bigger than the one Trump wants to build 

I don't think that the wall at $751 is big; however, there seem to be forces (bull whales) who are relatively capable of taking us up and above such price points, but when they get there, they become a bit worried that they may be left alone in their push upwards, which will cause them to get dumped upon, so they are not willing to push above and beyond $751 until they see that there are a sufficient number of "other bull whales" who are ready, willing and able to join in with them.

Maybe in the end we are reaching the same conclusion, even though we are describing the phenomenon (regarding resistance at $751) in different ways?

One single wall is certainly not enough to suppress this sucker, set up a wall on one or two exchanges and what, next day it will eventually get arbed as east resumes to climb up. Bigger walls across leading exchanges make no sense either as someone may buy into them and eliminate the said effect of suppression.

There are all kinds of games with walls, and questions about which exchanges are following which, and walls get put up as bluffs, too.  Some of the bigger players may have better ideas about the ability to which resistance or support is effective and sometimes testing out in one direction or another before attempting to play that direction with more conviction and to see if others are going to follow.

And, sure it can become a bit more convincing if there are simultaneous walls on several exchanges, but even those simultaneous walls could be a bit of a game, with the bigger players who likely have a better sense about the apparent effectiveness of their coins in one direction or another - even though they may not know for sure until they take the risk of dumping 1000k in coins, for example (which some may not be willing to do unless they have decent signals from others that they are likely to follow).

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

I've read a lot about how great intraday trading has been for the past couple of weeks but I don't get how it is worth the effort considering the market fees of at least 0.8%
for buying and selling. Are people really happy about 1-2 % profit? If you miss the train and bitcoin jumps above $ 1000 the intraday traders are left behind just for the fun of having made a few % of profit. Am i missing anything?

You are acting as if stopping trading is better for bitcoin.

There are all kinds of interpersonal strategies that people adopt for justifying trading and their trading costs... also trading costs vary quite a bit, so when you say .8% you seem to be exaggerating considerably.

Furthermore, sure it could be good for bitcoin prices to shoot from $750 to $7,500, but the reality of the matter is that people have all kinds of perspectives about bitcoin and some of them attempt to trade on their perspectives or maybe otherwise attempt to push the market in a direction that is contrary to the perspectives of others in order to profit off of their ability to attempt to manipulate the market.  Besides various arbitrage opportunities and even manipulation between on exhcnage and off exchange BTC trading or even intracryptocoin dynamics, there are also a whole hell-of-a lot more ways to short bitcoin these days, as compared with late 2013 (and earlier BTC price spiking days).

So, yeah, even if some folks think that it would be much better for everyone to ride out the bull run and to HODL, there are other folks that make a whole-hell-of-lot of profit if they can shake up some of the weaker hands by causing some unanticipated moves in the price or a delaying of the rocket to such an extent that it causes some folks to buy high and sell lower than the price that they bought or to sell with only a 10% premium rather than a 1,000% premium that may come way far into the indefinite  and maybe  future.

[PoolMinor]

   https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/irs-targeting-bitcoin-transaction-records-coinbase-users/

   Got to love the IRS they get butt hurt on an internal Gov't audit and go on a fishing expedition.

   I myself have been 'legal' in the sense of mining btc/ltc as a business since 2013 so not an issue.

   But if they expect everyone to keep track of every bitcoin they ever made and pay 20% capital gains on it.

   Well that could be interesting

It won't be until the next tax reporting year that the price will be up for the year since 2013. Most people will not have yearly gains to declare unless they are traders (not really a CoinBase thing) or they structure their spending differently (LIFO, FIFO, etc). I was going to go through the reporting thing last year but noticed that my spending was lower than my purchases throughout the year. The IRS doesn't care if you don't report losses.

This year I sold my house at a loss so it will more than compensate for any gains I received via spending as the price goes up.

I am still pondering the question, somewhat, regarding what to report to the IRS, when overall, I am in a very similar situation to you, Elwar, at least in regards to my purchasing of bitcoin continues to be greater than my selling of bitcoin (meaning each year I continue to accumulate bitcoin); however, those buying and selling BTC transactions occur over a large number of exchanges and even through private exchanges - but the net effect is that over the year, 2016 included, my quantity of BTC bought remains 1 to 2%, or even a bit more, greater than the amount sold.  I have a personal accounting accros several exchanges, and in years passed, I did not say anything - though my BTC activity has increased quite a bit over this past year.

What do other folks do?  Do you not report the transactions if the buying of BTC ends up being more than the selling?  I can see if the buying and selling is less than $10k, then maybe it may not matter as much, but what if the  buying and selling of BTC is $20k or more ?  For example, you buy $23k but you sell $20k (i know that it about 15% difference), but you could also buy $53k and sell $50k, and that would be a 6% difference but ultimately not taxable because you have bought more than you sold and therefore no realizable gain in fiat.

You do realize that your purchasing of more bitcoin is not the same as a capital loss?

https://www.irs.gov/uac/ten-facts-that-you-should-know-about-capital-gains-and-losses

[Temp_JayJuanGee]

   https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/irs-targeting-bitcoin-transaction-records-coinbase-users/

   Got to love the IRS they get butt hurt on an internal Gov't audit and go on a fishing expedition.

   I myself have been 'legal' in the sense of mining btc/ltc as a business since 2013 so not an issue.

   But if they expect everyone to keep track of every bitcoin they ever made and pay 20% capital gains on it.

   Well that could be interesting

It won't be until the next tax reporting year that the price will be up for the year since 2013. Most people will not have yearly gains to declare unless they are traders (not really a CoinBase thing) or they structure their spending differently (LIFO, FIFO, etc). I was going to go through the reporting thing last year but noticed that my spending was lower than my purchases throughout the year. The IRS doesn't care if you don't report losses.

This year I sold my house at a loss so it will more than compensate for any gains I received via spending as the price goes up.

I am still pondering the question, somewhat, regarding what to report to the IRS, when overall, I am in a very similar situation to you, Elwar, at least in regards to my purchasing of bitcoin continues to be greater than my selling of bitcoin (meaning each year I continue to accumulate bitcoin); however, those buying and selling BTC transactions occur over a large number of exchanges and even through private exchanges - but the net effect is that over the year, 2016 included, my quantity of BTC bought remains 1 to 2%, or even a bit more, greater than the amount sold.  I have a personal accounting accros several exchanges, and in years passed, I did not say anything - though my BTC activity has increased quite a bit over this past year.

What do other folks do?  Do you not report the transactions if the buying of BTC ends up being more than the selling?  I can see if the buying and selling is less than $10k, then maybe it may not matter as much, but what if the  buying and selling of BTC is $20k or more ?  For example, you buy $23k but you sell $20k (i know that it about 15% difference), but you could also buy $53k and sell $50k, and that would be a 6% difference but ultimately not taxable because you have bought more than you sold and therefore no realizable gain in fiat.

You do realize that your purchasing of more bitcoin is not the same as a capital loss?

https://www.irs.gov/uac/ten-facts-that-you-should-know-about-capital-gains-and-losses

It seems that you are missing the thrust of my question regarding whether or not to report when there is no gain because you have purchased more during the year.  I am not suggesting or implying that buying more during the year is a loss; however, if a person is moving bitcoins around multiple exchanges, then some exchanges there may be multiple sales that are bought back on another exchange.  One exchange may think that you have realized a gain, but if you look at other exchanges and transactions, then those coins were largely bought back.

So, the question is how to report or if to report in order to clarify that no actual realized gain was experienced because those coins were bought back.

I am not sure if the section on wash in the instructions to form D adequately address the issue.

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040sd.pdf

The wash section seems to suggest that if you buy back substantially similar assets within 30 days, then you can treat such buy backs as a wash, but such situation does not really seem to address record keeping very well or whether any reporting requirements exist.  In any event, it could be reasonable to just keep records of the various buy backs, and only provide information regarding such if the IRS asks, otherwise there is no need to report as long as there is no gain and you are buying back more than you are selling.

[PoolMinor]

You do realize that your purchasing of more bitcoin is not the same as a capital loss?

https://www.irs.gov/uac/ten-facts-that-you-should-know-about-capital-gains-and-losses

It seems that you are missing the thrust of my question regarding whether or not to report when there is no gain because you have purchased more during the year.  I am not suggesting or implying that buying more during the year is a loss; however, if a person is moving bitcoins around multiple exchanges, then some exchanges there may be multiple sales that are bought back on another exchange.  One exchange may think that you have realized a gain, but if you look at other exchanges and transactions, then those coins were largely bought back.

So, the question is how to report or if to report in order to clarify that no actual realized gain was experienced because those coins were bought back.

I am not sure if the section on wash in the instructions to form D adequately address the issue.

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040sd.pdf

The wash section seems to suggest that if you buy back substantially similar assets within 30 days, then you can treat such buy backs as a wash, but such situation does not really seem to address record keeping very well or whether any reporting requirements exist.  In any event, it could be reasonable to just keep records of the various buy backs, and only provide information regarding such if the IRS asks, otherwise there is no need to report as long as there is no gain and you are buying back more than you are selling.

You incur gains and losses through the sale of an asset, not through purchasing more......Each time you sell an asset you subtract the sale price from the purchase price, if there is a profit report it as such; it is a loss due to selling the asset at a lower than purchase price. Note each scenario is due to the selling of an asset. If you are a small business it is not considered a capital gain but income for your business which is taxed differently.

Note the above in red is erroneous. You cannot simply purchase more to offset your gains as a person, as a business: yes.

"You can't deduct losses from wash
sales unless the loss was incurred in the
ordinary course of your business as a
dealer in stock or securities. "

[jbreher]

A message or two(?) seems to be missing as well. How'd that happen?

edit: Ahh. 'deleted by a moderator'.
Happy to reply directly, but I don't know who you are, so I'm doing it here.
Was my post about segwit lockin failing deleted because you think that is unrelated to bitcoin price? Really?

I posted one that was moderated out of existence as well - it was a reply to T_JJG pointing out that segwit is not activated until it is. To me, the relation between the probability of this event and Bitcoin price should be obvious. But I guess not to our fearless (feckless?) moderator.

Let's see how long this message stays up.

[jbreher]

my quantity of BTC bought remains 1 to 2%, or even a bit more, greater than the amount sold. 

You sound American? That's not the way it works. The selling of an asset is a taxable event. You figure out your net profit or loss based upon the price you paid for the assets sold. At the time of the taxable event. You don't get to figure out net based upon what it takes to replace that asset in the future. Sure, there are accounting details such as LIFO or FIFO and whatnot, but the fundamental calculus is what it is.

IANAL, etc.

[hv_]

Wow. Is that BitMEX vol of 10 Mio  real one can see here?

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets

Must be full of buy walls....