Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jbreher]

OK. I can't stand it any longer. I gotta be that guy.

s/passed/past/

Sorry Jay but someone had to tell you sooner or later.

Thanks. Hits my grammar nazi trigger every time. The only reason I've not pointed it out as of yet is that I get the impression JJG thinks that I dislike him, and I don't want to reinforce that impression.

Just like franky1's refusal to capitalize anything. Of course, he/she is aware of the issue, and is willfully refusing to conform. I get the sense that JJG's 'passed' is inadvertent.

If it was any more pervasive, I'd have to think about adding it to my sidesig.

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[lolikop]

Btc getting closer for a mega dump back to 700

[Gyrsur]

Btc getting closer for a mega dump back to 700

https://youtu.be/xoUNiAyP0zw

[Fakhoury]

T-48 HOURS FOR A 100% FED INTEREST RATE HIKE, FUEL THE F***ING ROCKET !!![/size]

Raising rates doesn't help Bitcoin.  It doesn't necessarily hurt it either since gold has gone up at the same time rates have many times before.  Loose monetary policy with things like borrowing at zero or negative rates creates malinvestment, which then creates bubbles in speculative assets.  The act of tightening monetary policy theoretically should drain money out of speculative assets.  Depending on who you ask, Bitcoin is either money or a speculative asset, but most people can't even define what the hell it is, which is why it's usually not affected by normal market variables.

The only way raising rates is really beneficial for Bitcoin (since higher rates makes fiat more competitive) is if you bring it to like 3% to create a derivatives meltdown, or crank them all the way up to make the debt unserviceable and force Trump to default on it.

I agree with what you said R0ach, but don't forget that any raise in the USD will immediately equal to a weakening CNY.

Too many variables to address there since you have to posit China makes up the majority of the BTC buyer's market and anytime they perform such arbitrage action that there's a buyer for the coins they inflate to a higher price in the process.  I mean, it all sounds good on paper, but let's say China devalues by 30% in one swoop tomorrow and insider traders buy a bunch of BTC today.  For their trade to function, someone else on the planet has to be willing to buy BTC at 30% higher prices or the price comes back down again.  So it's less of a sure thing and more like a game of do the Chinese feel lucky today?

You want to say that it's priced in ?

[JimboToronto]

Btc getting closer for a mega dump back to 700

Keep dreaming. While a mega-dump like that would be a great buying opportunity, it's highly unlikely to happen.

That's just wishful thinking. In the real world the price of Bitcoin has been rising long-term, medium-term and short-term, and shows no real reason not to continue rising. Live with it.

Up we go.

[JayJuanGee]

T-48 HOURS FOR A 100% FED INTEREST RATE HIKE, FUEL THE F***ING ROCKET !!![/size]

Raising rates doesn't help Bitcoin.  It doesn't necessarily hurt it either since gold has gone up at the same time rates have many times before.  Loose monetary policy with things like borrowing at zero or negative rates creates malinvestment, which then creates bubbles in speculative assets.  The act of tightening monetary policy theoretically should drain money out of speculative assets.  Depending on who you ask, Bitcoin is either money or a speculative asset, but most people can't even define what the hell it is, which is why it's usually not affected by normal market variables.

The only way raising rates is really beneficial for Bitcoin (since higher rates makes fiat more competitive) is if you bring it to like 3% to create a derivatives meltdown, or crank them all the way up to make the debt unserviceable and force Trump to default or hyperinflate out of it.

I don't disagree with anything that you are saying here, Roach; however, I think that it remains a bit out of place, at this time, to attempt to place bitcoin into any asset/money categories that is correlated with traditional asset classes mainly because bitcoin is a very immature asset - and therefore, as long as it remains secure as a storage of value, then it is going to continue to be adopted in likely exponential ways - and that likely exponential growth is going to continue to have upwards price pressures on bitcoin - irrespective of the behaviors of various other mature (and likely centrally manipulated) assets/currencies...

Oh, surely, we are still going to have some short term playing off of one asset or currency or another with bitcoin, but overall, this ongoing adoption phase of bitcoin is going to continue bitcoin prices to continue to go up (which does not necessarily make bitcoin more valuable, but just increasingly and increasingly more widely used)

[JayJuanGee]

Btc getting closer for a mega dump back to 700

Wow lolikop, you have been waiting for (predicting) such a BTC dump for quite some time.

Sure, it is true that sooner or later we are going to get some kind of meaningful correction in the 15% to 25% range, but there is no real indication that it is going to come anytime soon (yeah, I know as soon as it happens,you are going to say, I told you so, I told you so, even though you are just repeating the same nonsense in order to attempt to act like you know something when you seemingly don't).

I was kind of hypothesizing that a 15% to 25% correction would likely occur before mid $800s, but based on some recent price actions, and seemingly continuing price rising that includes relatively moderate trade volumes, it is quite possible that such an anticipated 15% to 25% price correction may not occur until upper $800s.

Either way, nothing is really certain in bitcoinlandia, and even though technically reasonable that we are going to experience a significant price correction at some point, it is NOT a prerequisite condition that we have to have a significant price correction before proceeding to some kind of new ATH in the $2k to $5k territory.  If we do not get a significant price correction before such a new ATH high explosion, then I would predict that the new next ATH would plateau at a lower level closer to $2k rather than $5k.. just my current thinking.

[Rampion]

After we pass the $785 mark on Stamp there's no real resistance until ATH. And you know what happens when we approach ATH, right? Media frenzy, irrational exuberance, and exponential we go.

On most other markets (Kraken, BTC-E, Huobi) that resistance point, which is the mid-June high, has already been broken. The other side of the story says that on Stamp we had a double or even triple top, which should be a bad signal.

But Bitcoin never gives a fuck about TA or double or triple tops. Up we go. I'm buying!

[rjclarke2000]

After we pass the $785 mark on Stamp there's no real resistance until ATH. And you know what happens when we approach ATH, right? Media frenzy, irrational exuberance, and exponential we go.

On most other markets (Kraken, BTC-E, Huobi) that resistance point, which is the mid-June high, has already been broken. The other side of the story says that on Stamp we had a double or even triple top, which should be a bad signal.

But Bitcoin never gives a fuck about TA or double or triple tops. Up we go. I'm buying!

Why after 785 will we get past 800,900,1000 without too much trouble?

[Rampion]

After we pass the $785 mark on Stamp there's no real resistance until ATH. And you know what happens when we approach ATH, right? Media frenzy, irrational exuberance, and exponential we go.

On most other markets (Kraken, BTC-E, Huobi) that resistance point, which is the mid-June high, has already been broken. The other side of the story says that on Stamp we had a double or even triple top, which should be a bad signal.

But Bitcoin never gives a fuck about TA or double or triple tops. Up we go. I'm buying!

Why after 785 will we get past 800,900,1000 without too much trouble?

Not really, we will go to ATH (around $1200) with no real resistance and then we go exponential for a relatively short time before the crash - like it always happened. I've witnessed this shit three times already

Probably the big rally will not be as exponential and short-lived as in Dec 2013, Apr. 2013 and June 2011 (when price started doubling every week) because the coin is getting mature and the market getting bigger, much more money is needed for the price to double - but its still a very small market which is very prone to big rallies and big crashes.

[Meuh6879]

No whales can handle/provide the discharge, now ...

[Sundark]

Not really, we will go to ATH (around $1200) with no real resistance and then we go exponential for a relatively short time before the crash - like it always happened. I've witnessed this shit three times already

Probably the big rally will not be as exponential and short-lived as in Dec 2013, Apr. 2013 and June 2011 (when price started doubling every week) because the coin is getting mature and the market getting bigger, much more money is needed for the price to double - but its still a very small market which is very prone to big rallies and big crashes.

The question is: is the market mature and big enough to sustain not only rapid pumping but longer periods with bitcoin price over$800?
I don't think we are ready yet, not in 2016.

[Vin]

Not really, we will go to ATH (around $1200) with no real resistance and then we go exponential for a relatively short time before the crash - like it always happened. I've witnessed this shit three times already

Probably the big rally will not be as exponential and short-lived as in Dec 2013, Apr. 2013 and June 2011 (when price started doubling every week) because the coin is getting mature and the market getting bigger, much more money is needed for the price to double - but its still a very small market which is very prone to big rallies and big crashes.

The question is: is the market mature and big enough to sustain not only rapid pumping but longer periods with bitcoin price over$800?
I don't think we are ready yet, not in 2016.

Why not, if I may ask.

[yefi]

Not really, we will go to ATH (around $1200) with no real resistance and then we go exponential for a relatively short time before the crash - like it always happened. I've witnessed this shit three times already

Ipse dixit, huh.

[luckygenough56]

it can go up or down, either way am ready

still i have this idea that it will christmas dump cause everybody expect it to explode like 2013

then 2017 is moon

[hulla]

The 'war on cash' is really starting. Can recommend watching Andrea's Antonopolous recent talk about this very subject.

Yes, i have seen this : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZCVQHtD2l4





But, Saxo bank is right ... 2000 USD for 1 bitcoin at the end of January 2017 ?









Fuck, it's real ... it's currency WAR.

I will be more than happy if Saxo Bank prediction concern the price of bitcoin to hit 2100$ in the year 2017 was right and looking at the current price I said we're doing good

It will, don't panic

We've a lot for 2017 to let us even reach $3,000+ and don't forget, 2016 in not finished yet

That's cool then. Do you the exact month the price of bitcoin will blow like bazooka?

[ImI]

it can go up or down, either way am ready

still i have this idea that it will christmas dump cause everybody expect it to explode like 2013

then 2017 is moon

as long as we get no doom-news like a hacked exchange, a hardfork or similar shit, there will be the stuff that Rampion wrote about.

[Dafar]

it can go up or down, either way am ready

still i have this idea that it will christmas dump cause everybody expect it to explode like 2013

then 2017 is moon

Actually, what you just said is what everyone expects.... so I expect nothing of that sort to happen. Ie- No major dump in christmas or before ATH, no moon in 2017... just sidewayze

[luckygenough56]

Sidewayz would be boring 

[JayJuanGee]

Not really, we will go to ATH (around $1200) with no real resistance and then we go exponential for a relatively short time before the crash - like it always happened. I've witnessed this shit three times already

Probably the big rally will not be as exponential and short-lived as in Dec 2013, Apr. 2013 and June 2011 (when price started doubling every week) because the coin is getting mature and the market getting bigger, much more money is needed for the price to double - but its still a very small market which is very prone to big rallies and big crashes.

The question is: is the market mature and big enough to sustain not only rapid pumping but longer periods with bitcoin price over$800?
I don't think we are ready yet, not in 2016.

Why not, if I may ask.

Agree, why not? 

This is the kind of assertion that deserves an explanation?   

If you look at Bitcoin's price history, you will see that the late 2013 rise to the ATH from the $100s to $1200, took place over about 7 weeks.

The November 2015  rise from $240 to $502 took place  over 4-5 weeks

The May 2016 rise from $450 to $778 took place over 4 weeks.


This current rise from $550 to $780 took place over 17 weeks (about 4 months)

But if you zoom out further, you will see the current rise from $450 to $780 took place over 7 months and the rise from $240 to $780 played out over 15 months.

In other words, we have gotten to our current price with a whole hell-of-a lot more price support over a longer period of time, which would substantiate greater possibilities that the price could be supported in the current range or even a higher range and even that we may have a considerable spike upwards before coming back down into a kind of "sustainable" range that may well rest above our current price point.