Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Markets do not work like the way you are wishing them to work. 

Sure it would be nice to experience a nice gradual price rise, but markets are violent, and we cannot change that aspect of speculation in such a bitcoin market that has already been created (and allows for a lot of crazy speculation, in both directions, as you already indicated).

A mature currency should eventually become less violent.

In all reality the price is a lot more steady. While previous swings would be 50% of the price when it was under $5 to swings of 20% in the $100s...today 2-3% is significant.

I used to day trade when the price was jumping around from $3 to $7. I was definitely not an expert. I learned my lesson then.

O.k.  I understand and accept your point that bitcoin has seemed to become a bit more stable and the violent price swings have seemed to become less violent, but even you know that bitcoin is no where near becoming close to serving as some kind of stable currency... and that can be determined by it's mere small market cap of less than $13 billion.

We may have gotten lucky to experience some fewer bouts of extreme volatility, but it seems to be just wishful thinking to expect that bitcoin is in such a state that it could evolve in a kind of peaceful upwards trajectory.. It is just not going to happen.. The chances of such peaceful transition are probably quite lower than 1%, so why attempt to project such an unlikely scenario?


Sure any increase in bitcoin's market cap is going to bring some additional stability, but bitcoin would need to experience far in excess of 100x increase in it's market cap to become less susceptible to volatility (maybe even 1000x could be in the minimum range?)  Of course, every significant percentage increase in market cap does help to lessen bitcoin's volatility, and probably the greater diversification of exchanges help too, but I continue to think that it is going to take a while to reach a less volatile state (such as a kind that you seem to be referring to)

[Elwar]

Markets do not work like the way you are wishing them to work. 

Sure it would be nice to experience a nice gradual price rise, but markets are violent, and we cannot change that aspect of speculation in such a bitcoin market that has already been created (and allows for a lot of crazy speculation, in both directions, as you already indicated).

A mature currency should eventually become less violent.

In all reality the price is a lot more steady. While previous swings would be 50% of the price when it was under $5 to swings of 20% in the $100s...today 2-3% is significant.

I used to day trade when the price was jumping around from $3 to $7. I was definitely not an expert. I learned my lesson then.

O.k.  I understand and accept your point that bitcoin has seemed to become a bit more stable and the violent price swings have seemed to become less violent, but even you know that bitcoin is no where near becoming close to serving as some kind of stable currency... and that can be determined by it's mere small market cap of less than $13 billion.

We may have gotten lucky to experience some fewer bouts of extreme volatility, but it seems to be just wishful thinking to expect that bitcoin is in such a state that it could evolve in a kind of peaceful upwards trajectory.. It is just not going to happen.. The chances of such peaceful transition are probably quite lower than 1%, so why attempt to project such an unlikely scenario?


Sure any increase in bitcoin's market cap is going to bring some additional stability, but bitcoin would need to experience far in excess of 100x increase in it's market cap to become less susceptible to volatility (maybe even 1000x could be in the minimum range?)  Of course, every significant percentage increase in market cap does help to lessen bitcoin's volatility, and probably the greater diversification of exchanges help too, but I continue to think that it is going to take a while to reach a less volatile state (such as a kind that you seem to be referring to)

Agreed. It is wishful thinking on my part.

A 1000x increase to become a stable currency is fine by me too

Make it so.

[Vahnt]

Lol what a joke.

The moves on Huobi never fail to perplex me.

[Ted E. Bare]

Bull Vs. bear going on. My bet is on the bulls to win it.

[JayJuanGee]

Markets do not work like the way you are wishing them to work. 

Sure it would be nice to experience a nice gradual price rise, but markets are violent, and we cannot change that aspect of speculation in such a bitcoin market that has already been created (and allows for a lot of crazy speculation, in both directions, as you already indicated).

A mature currency should eventually become less violent.

In all reality the price is a lot more steady. While previous swings would be 50% of the price when it was under $5 to swings of 20% in the $100s...today 2-3% is significant.

I used to day trade when the price was jumping around from $3 to $7. I was definitely not an expert. I learned my lesson then.

O.k.  I understand and accept your point that bitcoin has seemed to become a bit more stable and the violent price swings have seemed to become less violent, but even you know that bitcoin is no where near becoming close to serving as some kind of stable currency... and that can be determined by it's mere small market cap of less than $13 billion.

We may have gotten lucky to experience some fewer bouts of extreme volatility, but it seems to be just wishful thinking to expect that bitcoin is in such a state that it could evolve in a kind of peaceful upwards trajectory.. It is just not going to happen.. The chances of such peaceful transition are probably quite lower than 1%, so why attempt to project such an unlikely scenario?


Sure any increase in bitcoin's market cap is going to bring some additional stability, but bitcoin would need to experience far in excess of 100x increase in it's market cap to become less susceptible to volatility (maybe even 1000x could be in the minimum range?)  Of course, every significant percentage increase in market cap does help to lessen bitcoin's volatility, and probably the greater diversification of exchanges help too, but I continue to think that it is going to take a while to reach a less volatile state (such as a kind that you seem to be referring to)

Agreed. It is wishful thinking on my part.

A 1000x increase to become a stable currency is fine by me too

Make it so.

I'm just saying that if we wish for less volatility we need increases in the market cap, and even though upwards price pressures are looking really good at the moment and in the past couple of months - nonetheless, we cannot even rest assured that the upwards is going to come.. even though we want that part too.

I think that we just need to prepare for both ways, and act in our own self interests.  If prices shot up to $3k or $5k.. I am going to sell coins, but I am not very likely to sell all of them... I sell a little bit all the way up, and tentatively, the most that I would sell would be in the 60% territory.. but I already have money in both bitcoin and in fiat that is prepared for price movements in either direction.. I would like more upwards, certainly, but currently my BTC/dollar allocation is at about 93% bitcoin and 7% fiat.. and even though I feel protected, I still get nervous when the price moves in either direction, and thinking that I should have allocated more in one direction or another.. so I think that it is just better to have a plan and attempt to stick with it as much as possible while maybe making small tweaks here and there based on expected and unexpected periods of volatility in either direction.

[AlexGR]

In other news:

Bitcoin Difficulty:   286,765,766,821
Estimated Next Difficulty:   309,647,895,807 (+7.98%)
Adjust time:   After 282 Blocks, About 1.8 days

[JimboToronto]

Jeezuz Murphy. Just got home from the bar (no getting lucky tonight) to see I missed some serious drama.

Up to $793 and down to $765 on Stamp, similar on other exchanges. Now we're right back where we were when I went out... $782USD/$1027CAD (Bitcoinwisdom).

The battle for $780 continues. Entertaining isn't it? Almost as much fun as alcohol.

[unknown04]

Jeezuz Murphy. Just got home from the bar (no getting lucky tonight) to see I missed some serious drama.

Up to $793 and down to $765 on Stamp, similar on other exchanges. Now we're right back where we were when I went out... $782USD/$1027CAD (Bitcoinwisdom).

The battle for $780 continues. Entertaining isn't it? Almost as much fun as alcohol.

ure drunk bro... rest well, and wake up to see $800

[JimboToronto]

Jeezuz Murphy. Just got home from the bar (no getting lucky tonight) to see I missed some serious drama.

Up to $793 and down to $765 on Stamp, similar on other exchanges. Now we're right back where we were when I went out... $782USD/$1027CAD (Bitcoinwisdom).

The battle for $780 continues. Entertaining isn't it? Almost as much fun as alcohol.

ure drunk bro... rest well, and wake up to see $800

Thanx for your concern. Luckily I'm not really all that drunk... less than 20 beers and a few shots.

Only the shots are even an issue and only because they were all different, one rye (Wiser's), one Irish (Jamieson's) and a shot of some kind of tequila.

Needless to say, I didn't actually order any shots, they were all bought for me. I try to stick to beer, especially in my old age. Don't want to confuse the stomach with miscellaneous liquors.

Now I'm on hangover prevention mode. I'm currently eating a nice flatiron steak with asparagus (Peru?) parsnip, yam, sweet potato, and Irish potato.

$800 tomorrow? I certainly hope so. Tonight's obviously been a ride but we're already over $784USD/$1030CAD and rising. This ain't no silly little double top bouncing us back down. The assault on $780 continues. The walls are crumbling.

Good night all. See you at the crack of noon.

[yefi]

Oo, ninja bears. Like a mini-boss.

So YOU say.
We know Rampion dixit'ed it, but we have no idea what ipse did! 

You don't wish to know the things Ipse gets up to with Tinky Winky, Laa-laa and Po when the cameras are off.

[madmat]

Thanx for your concern. Luckily I'm not really all that drunk... less than 20 beers and a few shots.

You don't need to be proud of your alcoholism.

[Ibian]

Thanx for your concern. Luckily I'm not really all that drunk... less than 20 beers and a few shots.

You don't need to be proud of your alcoholism.

On the other hand you don't want to pass out after two beers either.

[600watt]

Thanx for your concern. Luckily I'm not really all that drunk... less than 20 beers and a few shots.

You don't need to be proud of your alcoholism.

On the other hand you don't want to pass out after two beers either.

two of those are 6 liters. not sure if i could walk and talk with that.

[savetherainforest]

Dude... seriously?? .. "ping-pong" market..   ... but u didn't show the drop...

Here:




Roach will have a field day with this...  

[Cassius]

Will be interesting to see what Yellen does tomorrow. 0.25% rise expected, which will upset the Chinese and prompt further outflows of money using your favourite vehicle for avoiding capital controls. Question is whether it's priced in, or whether it will knock BTC decisively through resistance.

[r0ach]

Lol what a joke.

The moves on Huobi never fail to perplex me.

Let's ask the #1 market analyst in the world:

This Bullshit aint the work of an aggregate market.

This market is fucked.

This is just a few players with the power to defy all time learned principles of market mechanics

the splashes of the whales have frozen me in my tracks

these markets are just not to be traded

I can't reasonably expect to be able to play these markets

this is brain damage of the highest order, and I aint even making money

[Ibian]

Mats problem is that he is stuck on the idea that the only right way to make money is to daytrade. Realizing that he sucks at it, he doubles down and loses even harder.

Meanwhile I just made a hundred bucks in two minutes by buying on localbitcoins and immediately reselling on kraken. There are plenty of ways to make things work for the open minded.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

After last night's shenanigans I didn't know what to expect this morning.

I wake up to see that we're right back where we were... $787USD/$1032CAD, just a tiny shade ahead of this time yesterday.

Seems everybody was right. We had our break through to over $790, our "mega-dump" profit-taking, and an immediate bounce back to our slow and steady upward trend. All in one night. Whew.

Now I see a 500 coin wall at $784 at Stamp. That's a big wall for them. Should be fun to see if it's pulled or eaten.

Edit: Pulled already. That was quick.

[JayJuanGee]

Mats problem is that he is stuck on the idea that the only right way to make money is to daytrade. Realizing that he sucks at it, he doubles down and loses even harder.

Meanwhile I just made a hundred bucks in two minutes by buying on localbitcoins and immediately reselling on kraken. There are plenty of ways to make things work for the open minded.

I think that you are correct.  There is a kind of mindset that wants to keep doubling down and leveraging, and even when those kinds of folks might have periods of rationality and logic, they let a kind of greed - or gambling or rolling the dice  - take over their actions.. and periodically they win really big, but in the long run, the odds catch up with them and they are constantly attempting to dig themselves out of holes.

So we should continuously attempt to caution folks against this kind of approach, because it is dangerous - and even if they have won BIG TIME in the past, they gotta consider better long term approaches that may not make as much money but help to set themselves up for longer term profits and/or financial security.

From time to time, I have some of those kinds of Local bitcoin (or direct) trades that cause me to experience an immediate $100 or more locked profit, and sometimes it can take quite a while to put sufficient systems in place (having money in a multitude of places and floating the money) to be able to lock in those levels of instant profits, and really, the practice of profits may begin with much lower levels of profits and just getting used to locking them in on a regular basis.  I frequently have trades that only have $1 or so profits, but sometimes, they will run a streak and I get locked in profits from a multitude of small profits, but having the smaller profit locking in system in place allows for the taking advantage situations and opportunities for larger profit trades, without putting a large portion of the principle at risk.

[Ibian]

Mats problem is that he is stuck on the idea that the only right way to make money is to daytrade. Realizing that he sucks at it, he doubles down and loses even harder.

Meanwhile I just made a hundred bucks in two minutes by buying on localbitcoins and immediately reselling on kraken. There are plenty of ways to make things work for the open minded.

I think that you are correct.  There is a kind of mindset that wants to keep doubling down and leveraging, and even when those kinds of folks might have periods of rationality and logic, they let a kind of greed - or gambling or rolling the dice  - take over their actions.. and periodically they win really big, but in the long run, the odds catch up with them and they are constantly attempting to dig themselves out of holes.

So we should continuously attempt to caution folks against this kind of approach, because it is dangerous - and even if they have won BIG TIME in the past, they gotta consider better long term approaches that may not make as much money but help to set themselves up for longer term profits and/or financial security.

From time to time, I have some of those kinds of Local bitcoin (or direct) trades that cause me to experience an immediate $100 or more locked profit, and sometimes it can take quite a while to put sufficient systems in place (having money in a multitude of places and floating the money) to be able to lock in those levels of instant profits, and really, the practice of profits may begin with much lower levels of profits and just getting used to locking them in on a regular basis.  I frequently have trades that only have $1 or so profits, but sometimes, they will run a streak and I get locked in profits from a multitude of small profits, but having the smaller profit locking in system in place allows for the taking advantage situations and opportunities for larger profit trades, without putting a large portion of the principle at risk.

Bitcoin is tiny in my country, and particular location. Very few customers. But they tend to be big ones, compared to money tossed around in the normal day to day life. Long term, this is good for me because I'm the only one in my city actively advertising. Right now it's all about getting as many customers as possible so I can one day live off it.