Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[uhoh]

I almost forgot over the last couple of years just how nauseating bitcoin's price movements can be.

[Killerpotleaf]

I almost forgot over the last couple of years just how nauseating bitcoin's price movements can be.

you'll be fine.

Oh crappy-o, it looks like we're going down again    BTC didn't even rise enough to give me a proper dip on my favourite altcoin!  I feel better if I can keep my liability split 50/50 between the two but after the events of the past few days I've spent heavily on Bitcoin and now I feel too one-sided and too vulnerable to Bitcoin's fluctuations. It only needed to rise a little bit more (and the alt dip a little bit more) for my buy order to go through on Polo, but now they've see-sawed the wrong way 

I understand that people do this, and it does lend a certain ability to profit and an additional level of complexity that can really cause you to lose money faster or gain less (but yeah of course I recognize that it can have big pay offs too). 

In other words, you are really bringing additional gambling to bitcoin, and does not really seem to be a longer term plan.. with mere investing in bitcoin should be enough to get rich, no (or at least increase your value over time).

Oh it's long term alright, in fact I was buying up Dash for over a year before I bought any Bitcoin to keep. Let's say I'm hedging my bets as to which one is the better long-term investment. .   I hope they will both enjoy mainstream adoption and a long prosperous future and I want very much to be a part of that. But the high profit margin on my Dash has also been very reassuring during these funky Bitcoin dips.

It doesn't make me any less passionate about Bitcoin. It's just that I was passionate about Dash first and so far it's done me very proud 

why did you first get dash?
was the talk of bitcoin scalability problem a factor?

[Killerpotleaf]

we'll see a Big move tonight, maybe above 1000$ again.

i guess that means you altcoiners will get to pick up your altcoins on the cheap?

[yefi]

Just to clarify, the only reason I posted 2013 to compare with current is to reveal just how volatile this can be.

Volatility has been on the decline for years as there's improved liquidity in the markets. 2013's volatility was also on the back of a very steep rise in price.

Memories will have been rekindled, and sellers today will act for fear of a crash and another bear market - but are their actions rational or dominated by fear?

weak hands

He doesn't have hands, he has husks.

[swogerino]

Why all the doom and gloom over the bitcoin price all the sudden?
The rally was only had a duration of a week now it is just above $900.

There has got to be something that is holding it back now.

[bitcoinvest]

we'll see a Big move tonight, maybe above 1000$ again.

i guess that means you altcoiners will get to pick up your altcoins on the cheap?

based on what facts you say this about tonight?

[r0ach]

Oh crappy-o, it looks like we're going down

Chart says up

[rokkyroad]

we'll see a Big move tonight, maybe above 1000$ again.

i guess that means you altcoiners will get to pick up your altcoins on the cheap?

based on what facts you say this about tonight?

I love the optimism but history tells a different story.  It's hard to revisit highs after a major dump.  "Oh shit ... I missed the moon ... I need to get off this bitch ... I hope it bounces back up so I can recoup losses".

Those who held thinking they were going to get a better price and those who simply bought at the high get scared and pray for a chance to dump their coins. Hopefully to break even or make a small profit. Some are so scared they sell for losses.

History tells us bitcoin will slowly cycle downwards for some time. Believe me, I wish the opposite.

[JayJuanGee]

we'll see a Big move tonight, maybe above 1000$ again.

i guess that means you altcoiners will get to pick up your altcoins on the cheap?

based on what facts you say this about tonight?

I love the optimism but history tells a different story.  It's hard to revisit highs after a major dump.  "Oh shit ... I missed the moon ... I need to get off this bitch ... I hope it bounces back up so I can recoup losses".

Those who held thinking they were going to get a better price and those who simply bought at the high get scared and pray for a chance to dump their coins. Hopefully to break even or make a small profit. Some are so scared they sell for losses.

History tells us bitcoin will slowly cycle downwards for some time. Believe me, I wish the opposite.

I hope that you are wrong and this time is different... 


But, I do agree that there is some truth in what you say, but I am NOT going to dump my lillie fiends because I am in for the long run, even though it could take longer than expected to get back to where we were or even to get comfortably in the $1000s...

On the other hand, I think that if prices can get back to the $1000s and then defend $1000 for a considerable amount of time (even a couple of days), that would actually be pretty bullish for the shorter term...

But, yeah, we gotta get there first..in the coming days or even in the coming week, which is still to be seen and it may be a bit of a longer shot proposition, but certainly not out of the question, when we are still overall in a bull market and it did seem that the rise from $600 to $1139 was fairly gradual over three months (even though half of that gain came in the last three weeks).

[Killerpotleaf]

I almost forgot over the last couple of years just how nauseating bitcoin's price movements can be.

you'll be fine.

Oh crappy-o, it looks like we're going down again    BTC didn't even rise enough to give me a proper dip on my favourite altcoin!  I feel better if I can keep my liability split 50/50 between the two but after the events of the past few days I've spent heavily on Bitcoin and now I feel too one-sided and too vulnerable to Bitcoin's fluctuations. It only needed to rise a little bit more (and the alt dip a little bit more) for my buy order to go through on Polo, but now they've see-sawed the wrong way 

I understand that people do this, and it does lend a certain ability to profit and an additional level of complexity that can really cause you to lose money faster or gain less (but yeah of course I recognize that it can have big pay offs too). 

In other words, you are really bringing additional gambling to bitcoin, and does not really seem to be a longer term plan.. with mere investing in bitcoin should be enough to get rich, no (or at least increase your value over time).

Oh it's long term alright, in fact I was buying up Dash for over a year before I bought any Bitcoin to keep. Let's say I'm hedging my bets as to which one is the better long-term investment. .   I hope they will both enjoy mainstream adoption and a long prosperous future and I want very much to be a part of that. But the high profit margin on my Dash has also been very reassuring during these funky Bitcoin dips.

It doesn't make me any less passionate about Bitcoin. It's just that I was passionate about Dash first and so far it's done me very proud 

why did you first get dash?
was the talk of bitcoin scalability problem a factor?

I did a lot of research into as many cryptocurrencies as I could after I became intrigued by a Litepay option on the website for an online service I use. The first thing that caught my attention with Dash was the privacy angle and the instant transactions. As I read more about it, yes, the scalability stood out as an important factor as did the ability of the Dash network to make decisions quickly, thanks to the Masternodes. Dash appeared to be already future-proofed with the ability to adapt with agility to changes and challenges. It seemed to have anticipated the potential problems that Bitcoin might encounter and dealt with them already.  Two years on I still feel excited about Dash's future and I can't wait for the release of Evolution to take the mystery out of crypto for the average Joe.

But after a year or so of using Bitcoin as a means to buy Dash (The lack of fiat gateways is still a huge limiting factor for Dash) and also to transfer money from my UK bank to my Euro bank faster and cheaper than the banks can do it, I got to know Bitcoin better and to respect it as the Big Daddy of crypto. I had a chance to buy in low after the Bitfinex hack and then I was hooked. The lack of scalability with Bitcoin does worry me, as does the apparent impossibility of its network to actually agree on anything, but it already has the adoption and market cap that at the moment Dash is only dreaming of.  And these rollercoasters are certainly good for an adrenaline rush 

Sorry I think I got a bit carried away there 

i've bought and sold altcoins now and then, but i never got myself to "HODL" some... from what I see is that every few years there's a bunch of new hot altcoins that offer  "a start fresh from ground 0, with this new coin that does X Y Z super fast and super well "
It's an appealing prospect, and a believable story... the crypto does indeed offer technical advantages over bitcoin, why won't it eventually be preferred over bitcoin!?

but in reality altcoins are fighting a battle they can't ever hope to win. first off there will always be newer and "better" cryptos being rolled out. second they can only outpace bitcoin for a limited amount of time... once we have TX malleability fixed ( via segwit or otherwise ) then we'll open up the lighting network which will allow for, instant transactions, scalability,  scripting language(and we all know just how impressively immutable bitcoin really is we won't make the ETH/ETC mistake.) we'll see protocols that utilize zero knowledge proofs for ultimate privacy  ( Zcash is a proving ground for development and eventual adoption on the real blockchain ). It might take some time for all this stuff to be rolled out onto Bitcoin's blockchain, but its coming, and all these alts are really just doing the grunt work of trying things and seeing what works and what doesn't.

altho... i have found an interesting altcoin lately, its a protocol layer on top of Bitcoin which allows anyone to create "blockchain assets" and because all these assets reside on the Bitcoin blockchain they can be traded in a decentralized manner.  this i can get behind, because its success and bitcoin's success synergies.

[keyboard warrior]

we'll see a Big move tonight, maybe above 1000$ again.

i guess that means you altcoiners will get to pick up your altcoins on the cheap?

based on what facts you say this about tonight?

I love the optimism but history tells a different story.  It's hard to revisit highs after a major dump.  "Oh shit ... I missed the moon ... I need to get off this bitch ... I hope it bounces back up so I can recoup losses".

Those who held thinking they were going to get a better price and those who simply bought at the high get scared and pray for a chance to dump their coins. Hopefully to break even or make a small profit. Some are so scared they sell for losses.

History tells us bitcoin will slowly cycle downwards for some time. Believe me, I wish the opposite.

Now people are realizing the China bans bitcoin story was bullshit there's a chance bitcoin might slowly cycle upwards for some time. History tells us bitcoin crashes when rumors of a Chinese bitcoin ban start, then recovers from the crash when people realize the rumors were false and China hasn't banned bitcoin.




https://cointelegraph.com/news/media-spread-wrong-china-bans-bitcoin-narrative-causing-bitcoin-price-slump

Recently, the Chinese government and the People’s Bank of China offered reasonable suggestions to Bitcoin exchanges and users, discouraging fake volumes and offline scam-like promotions while asking users to maintain responsibility for their independent actions.

But some media outlets, mostly western-based, used the events to spread panic among Chinese investors, leading the price of Bitcoin down to $830.

[Tzupy]

Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.

Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.

China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.

I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long.

You still think we have further to go down?

I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking.

Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping.

At last the Chinese dumped (as usually, started at 3.45 am my time, while I was asleep), probably completed the second leg down of A. This took too long and almost made me believe it was truncated.
If I am right and the third leg down is to come, resistance moved to about 6300 CNY. I am expecting a small bounce into that resistance, and sideways for two days, then the third leg down.

Right when the market was at an inflection point, ready to take the plunge and confirm the third leg down, a LTC pump started and BTC followed soon, so I don't know which way...

The market has slowed down, and the Chinese established a critical support at 6100 CNY. If this will be broken, which could happen tomorrow, then the third leg down will be confirmed and A would end soon.

[Killerpotleaf]

we'll see a Big move tonight, maybe above 1000$ again.

i guess that means you altcoiners will get to pick up your altcoins on the cheap?

based on what facts you say this about tonight?

i've been keeping track of shorts, they appear to have saturated.

[jbreher]

I haven't sold any in a long time. I think I may sell a few if we can get back to around $1100. Will buy back more if we get into $800s

This.
Why the next pump will fall short. All the peoples that feel they missed out on the last peak will dump as soon as they can.

A couple of days ago -- when we were in the $1100's -- I moved ~1% of my stash to an exchange, setting up a laddered day trading scheme. Some sells executed. First divestiture I made since the great runup of 2013.

.

.

.

.

No, it was not enough to explain the crash. Either time.

::le sigh::

FWIW, I re-bought on the way down.

[jbreher]

Perhaps everyone here thinks that we are currently replaying October 2013 and haven't even made it to November yet?

Pretty much this^.

[Tzupy]

Perhaps everyone here thinks that we are currently replaying October 2013 and haven't even made it to November yet?

Pretty much this^.

Not everyone. I think we could be replaying August 17th 2012.

[Ted E. Bare]

I don't get why people compare today with late 2013. Wasn't the situation completely different then? Bitcoin is much more mature and look at the surrounding infrastructure; exchanges, etc. Whole different ball game.

[European Central Bank]

I don't get why people compare today with late 2013. Wasn't the situation completely different then? Bitcoin is much more mature and look at the surrounding infrastructure; exchanges, etc. Whole different ball game.

is it really that different? thankfully gox is gone. still got the same chinese exchanges. most of the western ones are the same with some new players like gemini that no one seems to use very much. there's more margin madness. adoption hasn't exploded in any way at all.

it's come on a little bit but really it's a bit more evolution and nowhere near revolution.

[jbreher]

Perhaps everyone here thinks that we are currently replaying October 2013 and haven't even made it to November yet?

Pretty much this^.

Not everyone. I think we could be replaying August 17th 2012.

Yeah, but you're bearish more often than not. I remain convinced that Bitcoin is a long-term successful moonshot. I remain serene in the face of crashes. Is now analogous to Oct 2013? Frankly, I have no idea. But it could be. More importantly, some time in the not-too distant future will be analogous to Oct 2013.

In the meantime, I await -- seated comfortably at my pick-a-nick table -- awaiting mah fine and glorious repast.

[PoolMinor]

Now people are realizing the China bans bitcoin story was bullshit there's a chance bitcoin might slowly cycle upwards for some time. History tells us bitcoin crashes when rumors of a Chinese bitcoin ban start, then recovers from the crash when people realize the rumors were false and China hasn't banned bitcoin.


[imm]https://cointelegraph.com/images/725_Ly9jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS9zdG9yYWdlL3VwbG9hZHMvdmlldy84NWYzNDAxOTZhZjgyOWUyZjNiNTE0NDgwNWVkOTkxMi5qcGc=.jpg[/img]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/media-spread-wrong-china-bans-bitcoin-narrative-causing-bitcoin-price-slump

Recently, the Chinese government and the People’s Bank of China offered reasonable suggestions to Bitcoin exchanges and users, discouraging fake volumes and offline scam-like promotions while asking users to maintain responsibility for their independent actions.

But some media outlets, mostly western-based, used the events to spread panic among Chinese investors, leading the price of Bitcoin down to $830.

I think blaming the media for this correction is far fetched at best. The correction was due. Quit trying to blame someone for it.