Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Isn't a fork very unlikely? The ones in control of such fork should've figured out the uncertainty and bad press involved with such an event. In the end we all want bitcoin to succeed. I call price manipulation at its finest. When the whales have bought back in, the scaling debate will pass.

a fork's getting unlikelier by the day as more people come out against it. i think the dude's beef is the ongoing stalemate, arguing and how it was all allowed to get this way when it could've been averted a long time before.

I'm not sure if I understand what you are saying ECB.  It is like you are having to work a lot for that explanation when there are better ways to characterize the situation.

We have the various BU supporters (and other big blockers) attempting to take over a large portion of the hashing power or to make it appear that they have a lot of solid support on the hashing end -even though they do not have very much support in other sectors (except maybe the propaganda and spin end and working various medias in get information out there that status quo institutions want to get out there - and that is assertions that bitcoin is broken, blah, blah, blah).

Even with the passage of time, it becomes less and less convincing that whatever BU has is not anywhere close to sufficient to actually accomplish what they are asserting that they are capable of accomplishing - that is both forking the network and getting others to go along with their side of the deal - instead of just creating a shit show.

There are likely quite a few sophisticated folks who can also play the market to some extent, yet a lot of the smarter money sees through a lot of the crap.. and when folks come around and recognize that the market is not going to correct anymore, then they jump back in.  So, yeah, we could get a few more corrections, but bear manipulators are only going to be able to get BTC prices to go down so far - before it becomes apparent that even the dumber money is not really buying the bitcoin is dead story or bitcoin is going to fork story.

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[bitserve]

Isn't a fork very unlikely? The ones in control of such fork should've figured out the uncertainty and bad press involved with such an event. In the end we all want bitcoin to succeed. I call price manipulation at its finest. When the whales have bought back in, the scaling debate will pass.

The contentious hard fork is much more unlikely with each of latest events:

- BU code is now publicly considered as buggy and untrustable.
- Some of previously BU supporters such as Charlie Shrem now recognise BU is not at all ready for prime time and advocate for Segwit asap.
- Jihan BU seems to be softening its position.
- Roger BUr is full of shit, as it has always been, so no news here.
- All the cards have been laid on the table, and it is now very obvious a contentious hard fork would benefit noone.
- If the (contentious) hard fork would happen everybody would blame miners of the consequences. Not only Jihan BU/Antminer would be finished, but it would also be the end of PoW in the way we know it. It's not wise to associate own fate with such a risky bet, but thats exactly what they have done.

Now if Jihan BU would find a plausible reason to change its mind and begin signaling for Segwit, the price would skyrocket. That's the wise bet and a win-win for everyone.

Many people have sold all or part of his stash in fears of the fork and surprisingly the price has remained over $1000. The FOMO that would be unleashed if a consensus towards Segwit (with no HF) happens would be unprecedented. Maybe $2000 overnight?

[European Central Bank]

Now if Jihan BU would find a plausible reason to change its mind and begin signaling for Segwit, the price would skyrocket. That's the wise bet and a win-win for everyone.

and just maybe one of the causes of all of this madness is the retraction of the 2mb hard fork agreement from that hong kong meeting by core/ not core.

if that was in the bag maybe he'd be signalling segwit right now, but it's too late to know what's true and what isn't regarding that agreement it's been spun so many times.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]
Many people have sold all or part of his stash in fears of the fork and surprisingly the price has remained over $1000. The FOMO that would be unleashed if a consensus towards Segwit (with no HF) happens would be unprecedented. Maybe $2000 overnight?

I doubt that we are going to witness segwit consensus any time soon, but I agree with your overall point that a major move towards signaling seg wit support (even a 10% or 20% boost in signalling seg wit support) would be very bullish for BTC prices.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Isn't a fork very unlikely? The ones in control of such fork should've figured out the uncertainty and bad press involved with such an event. In the end we all want bitcoin to succeed. I call price manipulation at its finest. When the whales have bought back in, the scaling debate will pass.

The miners are natural shorts since they are always selling.  Exactly the same thing happens in any of the durable commodity markets, particularly precious metals, where the miners have sophisticated hedging strategies with complex derivatives plays.  Antminer e.g., can probably maximise it's profits from sales by going short on leverage at medium term tops and then dumping into the market (maybe with some associated FUD spreading).  Basically they are front-running themselves (maybe with some added insider trading climbing on) since they have knowledge of the large sales they are about to be performing as part of their regular business. Eventually their profitability and business model calculations incorporate these derivative bets as it enables them to become hyper-competitive and beat out all rivals to a position of absolute monopoly, since they are centralising all the risks of market moves upon themselves with these outsized derivative bets.

Bitcoin security model is predicated on honest miners in a constant state of untrusting competition (Byzantines General problem).  Anybody advocating or encouraging for collusion amongst the miners is inviting a shitshow since they are going directly against the underlying incentive structure that secures bitcoin's scarcity.  If a majority of bitcoin miners are colluding to enrich themselves at the expense of the majority of bitcoin users then they are ruining the primary source of value that their businesses are founded upon.  I think the colloquial term is "crapping in their feed bowls".

The bitcoin markets have had a faintly bad smelling odour emanating from the mining scene in China for quite some time. I think the full blown aggressive stance now exhibited surrounding the coup (power-grab, w/e) attempt using the 'big block' wedge issue has revealed to all how deep the problem may have already become. Maybe a large short position was taken out around $950 in anticipation of sales that then got unexpectedly bought up by a raging bull market? Now a very large Chinese miner and fabricator is actually under water to the extent that they are very desperate for a much lower price for its business survival? Such a desperate actor will do anything, including threatening to fork bitcoin or otherwise nuclear options, since it is going bankrupt anyway. Maybe it is as simple as someone who overly centralised power, and therefore risk, around themselves miscalculated with derivatives bets and now wants a bailout, again?

[andyatcrux]

If antpool and others followed slushpool's example and gave individual users of the pool a percentage of the "vote" we would likely see a much quicker resolution to this standoff.

Edit: some more info.

https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/5y3pm7/on_slushpool_nearly_40_of_users_vote_core_while_a/

[European Central Bank]

If antpool and others followed slushpool's example and gave individual users of the pool a percentage of the "vote" we would likely see a much quicker resolution to this standoff.

does antpool have any users other than the main man himself?

[andyatcrux]

Yes.

[bitserve]

Now if Jihan BU would find a plausible reason to change its mind and begin signaling for Segwit, the price would skyrocket. That's the wise bet and a win-win for everyone.

and just maybe one of the causes of all of this madness is the retraction of the 2mb hard fork agreement from that hong kong meeting by core/ not core.

if that was in the bag maybe he'd be signalling segwit right now, but it's too late to know what's true and what isn't regarding that agreement it's been spun so many times.

Yes, and if core broke (which I don't really know for sure) the agreement about the 2MB hard fork I can understand Jihan BU rage. But he is wrong in how he has dealt with the situation:

Bitcoin PoW was originally intended as a mean of decentralization, but things (and developments) have gone the exact oppossite. Now PoW is a source of centralization in the hands of a few. That's how things have evolved... and it wouldn't be a problem if we could trust miners would wisely use that power.

Yes, we need/want to trust miners, but latest events have shown a scary scenario in which we fear miners. That needs to come to an end, because, again, we really need/want to trust them for Bitcoin to keep growing.

Let's hope Jihan BU realizes the importance of TRUST and the consecuences of his actions.

Blocksize increase will probably happen in the future. But first comes first, and that is Segwit.

Why? Because it doesn't need a FUCKING HF, because a HF should only be done with the utmost consense and not on threats or dividing the community, and because if we think long term either Bitcoin will have a HUGE LOT of transactions in the future or none at all.... and you can only have so many transactions with L2 not with any linear blocksize increase.

And L2, when in full working state, will NEED a blocksize increase (for opening/closing channels), and when that happens there will be no division in asking for it. Everybody will support/demand the blocksize increase. And if CORE doesn't provide, then they will be the ones that will be left alone the same as its happenning now with BU nonsense.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Yes.

Do any of Antpool's contributing miners have contingency plans for their businesses in the event of Antpool's insolvency?

[European Central Bank]

http://www.coindesk.com/bats-trying-overturn-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-rejection/

bats file objection to etf rejection. i presume these guys know enough to bother doing this or do they like to be punished?

[marcus_of_augustus]

http://www.coindesk.com/bats-trying-overturn-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-rejection/

bats file objection to etf rejection. i presume these guys know enough to bother doing this or do they like to be punished?

Excellent move, I thought something like this might happen since Winklevoos/BATS allowed it to go all the way to forcing an official refusal. I still do not think an ETF is a good idea but getting some court rulings on law enforcement shennaigans is always good to keep the rats honest.

[Ted E. Bare]

Take those SEC officials down!

[HI-TEC99]

http://www.coindesk.com/bats-trying-overturn-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-rejection/

bats file objection to etf rejection. i presume these guys know enough to bother doing this or do they like to be punished?

Assuming the SEC doesn't refuse a review does anyone know the maximum length of time it can take? The SEC moves at a glacial pace, and will probably take the maximum time allowed.

According to the SEC’s website, Rule 430(b)(1) enables parties to file a notice of petition within five days of the ruling (or within 15 days of its publishing in the Federal Registrar), provided clear reasons for the petition are given.

The rule goes on to state that the SEC, under this clause, may "affirm, reverse, modify, set aside or remand" the prior contested action as part of the review.

[Ted E. Bare]

For whatever it's worth, cast your vote in the scaling debate:
SegWit, Unlimited, both, neither, etc

[gembitz]

http://www.coindesk.com/bats-trying-overturn-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-rejection/

bats file objection to etf rejection. i presume these guys know enough to bother doing this or do they like to be punished?

^BATS is our friends!!! ~ going up to bat for batzzz!!! :-D trust me they are cool af==>>

http://www.bats.com/us/equities/market_statistics/book/BRK.A/

[gembitz]

For whatever it's worth, cast your vote in the scaling debate:
SegWit, Unlimited, both, neither, etc

#4   ~ there is no spoon :-D

[savetherainforest]

blah blah blah more fork FUD bullshit blah blah

Thanks for id'ing yourself, my ignore list just keeps getting longer

I haven't started to ignore them just yet...

I'm curious if they will change their tune after its over 3.000$ or $10.000+  ... would be fun to see if they mature.    


Anyway... last call aboard the train!!! ... It seems like: "Buy! Or be 4ever left behind!" ... I'm not sure we will see this value, like ever, starting with the next few days.    

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

A Bitcoin Beginner’s Guide to Surviving a Coin-Split

We were warned.

[gembitz]

A Bitcoin Beginner’s Guide to Surviving a Coin-Split

We were warned.

^rodger crack corn and i don't care..