Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[andyatcrux]

JayJuanGee, while 2MB may not be technically necessary, Segwit with increase would be a reasonable compromise in my opinion. That is all. Ultimately there may be no BU or Segwit and we may go on with Core as it is. In that event, the fear and uncertainty may fade as it did with the previous emergent proposals and I agree that Bitcoin would be just fine.

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[r0ach]

Time for bitcoin to go back to GPU's 

Bitcoin is pointless without general purpose mining hardware available.  People just ignored that fact because they were already invested and didn't want to rock the boat to disturb their investment:

Energy costs on the globe aren't uniform, so the energy arb game was going to centralize bitcoin already, then adding ASICs on top of that kind of doubled up on that oversight to make it worse.  Decentralization might have been acceptable with only the energy arb game at play, but not when combined with the removal of general purpose mining hardware.

[spooderman]

nice to know JJG hasn't bought into the BU horseshit.

i've spent countless hours arguing with roger's sock puppets on reddit. it's like trying to teach a cow quantum mechanics.

worrying how much control has fallen into the hands of such few people - what with roger owning bitcoin.com and jihan controlling so much hashrate.

people just need to remember one thing, and one thing only:

it's all about decentralisation

without that bitcoin is utterly useless.

[rdnkjdi]

You are merely asserting that 2mb is necessary

I'm asserting that thruput needs to be more than 7tps.  A lot more.  With low fees for it to keep growing.  If I'd allowed my network get to choke points for years while knowing it would likely take 6 - 12 months to upgrade without pushing a viable solution while hard drive space & bandwidth price ratio had gone down 10x.  And then started pushing a controversial solution that would jack with the entire ecosystem of fees for security until just months ago - I'd be fired.  Especially if there was an alternate employee who was offering a network with 8x the thruput / lower fees if thruput not needed while trying to force my controversial change as the only alternative.

Bitcoin Unlimited is the third employee offering a solution.  They are currently sitting at almost 40 of the 100 directors voting yes.

Core has a pretty solid way of maintaining the status quo

Absolutely - we agree.

blah blah blah - nothing of substance

Bitcoin Unlimited ... buggy software

We agree.

spin and whining of a bunch of loud mouths

Absolutely hilarious.  People have been clamoring for more & cheaper thruput for three iterations over two years.  And your analysis of all of them AND the 40% & counting of the hashpower holding up your 20 bil project is "a bunch of loud mouthers".

75% consensus level

51% is needed before you have enough leverage to start convincing people.  It's by design.  Social 99.5% consensus is preferred but not needed.

SEGWIT fixes everything

It opens up side channels.  A few years ago I was super stoked about this.  But I did some math on the fees, transaction levels needed to market cap ratio to maintain a high enough hashrate for the network to make it financially difficult to short / fork / profit.

As fees are taken offchain, rewards go away the miner security to market cap ratio will plummet.  I don't *think* it's sustainable - need to go back and do more numbers on average transaction amounts, what will likely be taken offchain, etc. 

But keep up the smug attitudes towards the miners. 

we may go on with Core as it is

I think this is the most likely.  But XT, Classic, Unlimited - it's only a matter of time before there is a fourth shot. 

Most likely miners who hire their own dev team.  Solve the block problem without SEGWIT, disallow side channels, make the masses calling for lots of capacity / cheap on chain transactions happy & wrestle control of the code away from the trolling developers who've pissed them off.

[bitserve]

In the past 24 hours it seems that some percentage of signaling mined blocks have changed from BU to Segwit. (4% over the total, 12% change from BU to Segwit).

https://coin.dance/blocks

BU: 36.1%
Segwit: 31.9%
8MB: 5.6%

Maybe its just an oscillation... but worth pointing it. (ANTPOOL, representing almost half of BU signaling, is still doing it, though).

[r0ach]

it's all about decentralisation

without that bitcoin is utterly useless.

Well, on the bright side, if anyone wants to convert their digital rat poison currency to money, both JMBullion and Provident metals accept bitcoin as a payment method for gold and silver now (although the GSR highly favors silver atm):

https://www.jmbullion.com/

https://www.providentmetals.com/

[d5000]

In the past 24 hours it seems that some percentage of signaling mined blocks have changed from BU to Segwit. (4% over the total, 12% change from BU to Segwit).

I have also noted that. If this tendency consolidates, we may have finally the fork danger cleared, or at least, delayed. (I for myself would like to see BU in the wild, but as an altcoin, maybe based on a BTC balance snapshot like Clams).

Regarding price evolution, I think there is clearly a triangle closing in the next hours or at most tomorrow (Saturday). If nothing fundamental happens, I think then we'll see where we are heading for now.

[Cassius]

In the past 24 hours it seems that some percentage of signaling mined blocks have changed from BU to Segwit. (4% over the total, 12% change from BU to Segwit).

https://coin.dance/blocks

BU: 36.1%
Segwit: 31.9%
8MB: 5.6%

Maybe its just an oscillation... but worth pointing it. (ANTPOOL, representing almost half of BU signaling, is still doing it, though).

Which means that right now, Antpool could swing the balance by tipping the total to within a whisker of 51%. Would be a pretty powerful signal.
Wonder if there will be some kind of backhander or closed-doors negotiation and then suddenly, he'll change sides.

[Totscha]

I have just come up with an absolutely crazy idea. I should probably be shot in the face! So here it is:

SegWit and LN would push a lot of the transactions offchain. So people running LN nodes would collect some fees. Ideally these would be much cheaper than today's on-chain trans fees, but there could be a lot more of them.

What exactly is preventing miners/pools from running LN nodes and earn some tasty fees? Lactose intolerance? Their inability to compile C++11 code? The fact that they have no more space for an extra virtual server for the LN node in their multi football field sized mining farm?

Please enlighten me!

[becoin]

I have just come up with an absolutely crazy idea. I should probably be shot in the face! So here it is:

SegWit and LN would push a lot of the transactions offchain. So people running LN nodes would collect some fees. Ideally these would be much cheaper than today's on-chain trans fees, but there could be a lot more of them.

What exactly is preventing miners/pools from running LN nodes and earn some tasty fees? Lactose intolerance? Their inability to compile C++11 code? The fact that they have no more space for an extra virtual server for the LN node in their multi football field sized mining farm?

Please enlighten me!

Setting up LN node doesn't require ASICs produced by Bitmain.

[Searing]

I have just come up with an absolutely crazy idea. I should probably be shot in the face! So here it is:

SegWit and LN would push a lot of the transactions offchain. So people running LN nodes would collect some fees. Ideally these would be much cheaper than today's on-chain trans fees, but there could be a lot more of them.

What exactly is preventing miners/pools from running LN nodes and earn some tasty fees? Lactose intolerance? Their inability to compile C++11 code? The fact that they have no more space for an extra virtual server for the LN node in their multi football field sized mining farm?

Please enlighten me!

Setting up LN node doesn't require ASICs produced by Bitmain.

Thus I gather why miners don't like seg witness nor lightning?

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Looking bearish

[york780]

Looking bearish

Yes. Big dump expected because we tested the support below 1000$ 3 time now. We would likely go furhter south it seems.

[BDO_44]

100% there will be dump, below 900$

[Spaceman_Spiff]

100% there will be dump, below 900$

Mmm, if everybody starts agreeing with me, I might have to reconsider       

[becoin]

I have just come up with an absolutely crazy idea. I should probably be shot in the face! So here it is:

SegWit and LN would push a lot of the transactions offchain. So people running LN nodes would collect some fees. Ideally these would be much cheaper than today's on-chain trans fees, but there could be a lot more of them.

What exactly is preventing miners/pools from running LN nodes and earn some tasty fees? Lactose intolerance? Their inability to compile C++11 code? The fact that they have no more space for an extra virtual server for the LN node in their multi football field sized mining farm?

Please enlighten me!

Setting up LN node doesn't require ASICs produced by Bitmain.

Thus I gather why miners don't like seg witness nor lightning?

Yep. If you want to know the true centralization rate of bitcoin network you have to calculate the % of hash power produced by Bitmain ASICs.

[pukis]

100% there will be dump, below 900$

 If your somehow right, i will make big dump on your head

[becoin]

Looking bearish

Yes. Big dump expected because we tested the support below 1000$ 3 time now. We would likely go furhter south it seems.

Wow. You're real talent. 4 out of 5 predictions wrong.

[Karartma1]

I have just come up with an absolutely crazy idea. I should probably be shot in the face! So here it is:

SegWit and LN would push a lot of the transactions offchain. So people running LN nodes would collect some fees. Ideally these would be much cheaper than today's on-chain trans fees, but there could be a lot more of them.

What exactly is preventing miners/pools from running LN nodes and earn some tasty fees? Lactose intolerance? Their inability to compile C++11 code? The fact that they have no more space for an extra virtual server for the LN node in their multi football field sized mining farm?

Please enlighten me!

Setting up LN node doesn't require ASICs produced by Bitmain.

Thus I gather why miners don't like seg witness nor lightning?

Yep. If you want to know the true centralization rate of bitcoin network you have to calculate the % of hash power produced by Bitmain ASICs.

Interesting mini thread. I had something like that in the back of my mind but I've never gave it much thought. Now I see many things which I was clearly missing, thanks becoin.

[york780]

100% there will be dump, below 900$

Mmm, if everybody starts agreeing with me, I might have to reconsider       

No trust yourself. The law of the 3 dead cat bounces always works. 3x testing lowest support= breaking trough support.