Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitserve]

Article is light on details. Still, if it is what I think it is....

Everybody wants to rule the world these days. It will also be pre-mined. Still, I guess someone will buy it.

Buy it!? It will be Bitcoin, pure and simple.

And the pre-mine? Not a pre-mine of new coins on a new blockchain. A means of invalidating any progress the UASF makes.

The removal of the precise centrally-planned amount of witness discount is perhaps the removal of the most odious aspect of the SegWit Omnibus Changeset.

While I need to look further into details, I am very encouraged about this development. Big blocks, improved version of segwit, removal of the biggest bug Bitcoin has (the artificial constraint on system capacity), what's not to love?

And the funniest part is that this is nothing but the obvious* solution to the UASF-ers 'threat' to roll back the non-UASF chain.

* (like, duh)

I've not been this encouraged about the future in months.

I think I am starting to understand your position on this issue. But, still, there are some questions I would like to ask you:

- Don't you think miners have already enough power with their hashrate that if they "win" this game they will be too much powerful than desirable?
Specially considering that "miners" is not exactly a distributed group, but mainly Jihan/Antminer... one single entity.
- From what you have just said, I think you are not against Segwit/LN, are you?

I "think" you are much more invested in Bitcoin than I am, so I supposse whatever you support you do it in your belief that it will be a price boost instead of the oppossite. Also you seem to be "tech inclined" so that's why I want to understand your position.

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[Dotto]

Options

A) do nothing, if coins on exchange or in a 3rd party wallet you are at mercy of the exchange or wallet provider as to what happens
B) move coins to your own wallet or cold storage - choose after the fact which chain you want your coins to move onto
C) cash out to fiat - choose to buy back inn after the fact if you like on whichever chain wins
D) buy a different crypto/ combination of crypto (i.e. Diversify risk)  and wait and see what happens

The only really foolish decision is option A) although many will do this as doing nothing is the easiest thing to do, and what if all forks crash and I can't get my coins to exchange because fees.......also
If many coins leave exchanges without being sold then liquidity falls, vol rises and potentially price does to if buying demand remains constant as coin supply is reduced.

The difficulty thing needs to be kept in mind. It's possible a UASF chain will be painfully slow until it readjusts. I can imagine many people will be on exchanges that have declared they'll host both as otherwise it might be impractical to capitalise on it.

This is the great question... Who mines this chain? You can expect 2 weeks of mostly non blocks findings. The chaos is guaranteed

[gentlemand]

This is the great question... Who mines this chain? You can expect 2 weeks of mostly non blocks findings. The chaos is guaranteed

There's certainly no shortage of people using their pocket money on Amazon hosted nodes. I haven't seen many or any signs of proper miners showing up yet.

[d_eddie]

Hello, I am a long time lurker and just made myself an account. I've been in bitcoin for a while, but my stash is smaller than it could be. Long story.

I recently made myself a new account on Bitmex, mainly I'd like to lend crypto for interest. I have a couple questions.

1. What do you think of that exchange? Is it fair, honest etc? As a non-US citizen, it is one of the few exchanges that will let you trade and withdraw BTC without too much ID hassle.

2. Do you think it is possible to lend out a small part of my btc? I'm talking 0.5-1 btc.

3. Is this the right forum for such questions? If it isn't, please point me to a more appropriate discussion on bitcointalk, and I will delete this post from here.

[bitserve]

Hello, I am a long time lurker and just made myself an account. I've been in bitcoin for a while, but my stash is smaller than it could be. Long story.

I recently made myself a new account on Bitmex, mainly I'd like to lend crypto for interest. I have a couple questions.

1. What do you think of that exchange? Is it fair, honest etc? As a non-US citizen, it is one of the few exchanges that will let you trade and withdraw BTC without too much ID hassle.

2. Do you think it is possible to lend out a small part of my btc? I'm talking 0.5-1 btc.

3. Is this the right forum for such questions? If it isn't, please point me to a more appropriate discussion on bitcointalk, and I will delete this post from here.

If your stash is smaller than it could be because of mtgox or any other exchange issues and your are now thinking about lending in bitmex, then your learnt nothing.

1. It's not on my list of "fair" exchanges. But I don't have any reason to suspect much more from them than all the rest.

2- You can lend whatever quantity you want.

3- Probably there are better sections for this type of questions... but this is wall observer and there's not that much walls to observe nowadays.

[willope]

2nd. leg down.

[Zicore47]

2nd. leg down.

For me it will only count, when it goes below the last one.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

That was ugly.

[kromtar]

Bear porn... who will sell at the bottom again?  

[lightfoot]

The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away.

I don't know if Antminer has the firepower to pull this off. Their pools are big, how many other pools can pick up the slack if people decide they want to ditch antpool?

Likewise do they have a new chip in development?

They pulled a similar stunt on litecoin a few months back to try and ditch segwit (the new L3+ miners couldn't be shipped due to a software update, Bitmain offered to mine for clients and send them all earnings, meanwhile something was suddenly mining on the non-segwit pools. Weird coincidence of course) but that seemed to flame out.

Do they have a similar new tech for SHA? If so I could see a sale of the new chip as a "we will keep it in our data center and send you all the bitcoins minted, of course we will use them for our purposes (which could be mining a new shitcoin or competing with bitcoin). Totally valid as long as they pay out the mining revenue (which could come from reserves).

Owning a miner is a lot more than owning the bitcoin coming out of it.

[DharmaBum]

What are your thoughts on possible FRS interest rate decision influence on BTC?
All markets are inevitably interdependent despite our eager willingness to distance from the conventional financial system. Hence the question arises concerning the scale of such impact. Maybe there is some retrospective statistics or other data which could shed some light on this issue?
 

[STT]

Is Bitstamp referring to lightning network transactions.

I was going to say Huobi looked quite stable going sideways.   However Kraken lost its channel, the recent recovery then at top marked the underside of that trend finding it as a ceiling.  We then went sideways and now down.  
The low being seen now is prices that match end of May, with a trend drawn then as a ceiling (before started a 2nd leg down).   So its reasonable previous price action in effect.

It looks quite 'droopy' overall, however Im seeing previous trends that bears will need to climb over to continue down.    I'll say negative short term till we challenge 2700, which is not soon is my guess.   I'm looking support, confirmation around 2275 if the 2414 may end ceiling marker doesnt hold the rough trend in play from April is far more substantial.   Basically looking at retrace of the last recovery and market requires more confirmation to continue any uptrend.

[Totscha]

Is Bitstamp referring to lightning network transactions.

Yes. Because the're adding Litecoin this week.

[d_eddie]

Thanks for your reply, bitserve.

I recently made myself a new account on Bitmex, mainly I'd like to lend crypto for interest. I have a couple questions.

1. What do you think of that exchange? Is it fair, honest etc? As a non-US citizen, it is one of the few exchanges that will let you trade and withdraw BTC without too much ID hassle.

2. Do you think it is possible to lend out a small part of my btc? I'm talking 0.5-1 btc.

3. Is this the right forum for such questions? If it isn't, please point me to a more appropriate discussion on bitcointalk, and I will delete this post from here.

If your stash is smaller than it could be because of mtgox or any other exchange issues and your are now thinking about lending in bitmex, then your learnt nothing.

I actually learnt my first and only lesson about exchanges before the Gox affair. I lost about 12 btc (roughly 600$ at the time). I did get 300$ compensation 6 months later. A cheap lesson, in my opinion.

Now I"m just trying to learn about trading small amounts. Mostly I'm interested in lending, which appears to be as low risk as it comes. What I specially like about this kind of trading is that all profits and losses are denominated in btc and fiat never enters the equation.

Any advice about where to go study, where to discuss etc. will be most welcome.
Thanks again!

[jbreher]

- Don't you think miners have already enough power with their hashrate ...

Yes.

... that if they "win" this game they will be too much powerful...?

No.

Allow me to explain. The miners have exactly as much power as they have (is that a tautology?). The outcome of this will not change the balance of power. The fact of the matter is that in the system that Satoshi designed, the only power that stands against the miners making any changes they so desire is the power of the users to abandon the chain, making it worthless.

...than desirable?

Kind of. Not exactly. I regret that I did not fully understand Satoshi's design back in the early days of ASICs / late days of FPGAs. I -- along with the vast majority of the community -- abdicated my role within the power structure of Bitcoin. All the more regrettable, as I once participated as a (not insignificant) miner. But the simple fact is that we collectively ceded our power to a small collection of specialists.

But just as DiscusFish once had the clout to 51% the network on their own (which, BTW, they chose not to do), this too shall pass. As Bitcoin continues to grow in world monetary scale, it will eventually attract a new class of silicon vendors. Ones that exist already to sell silicon in general terms - not to specialize in the arcane details of the merchant Bitcoin mining business. With their own leading-capability fabs, they will be able to outcompete BitMain's model of outsourcing their fab production. And these high-volume silicon vendors will sell their wares to manufacturing powerhouses, who will in turn sell their mining systems to the populace at large on open terms. And we will all be able to get back into small-scale mining. Harvesting the waste heat to useful ends (residential water heaters being an obvious first target of opportunity?). Collectively outweighing the centralized mining houses. Likely still dependent upon pools, but not captive to the whims of the mining company CEOs.

- From what you have just said, I think you are not against Segwit/LN, are you?

Not really. There are some aspects of The SegWit Omnibus Changeset that I like, others that I think would be better solved in other ways, and others that I dislike. But I'm not against it just for the sake of being against it.

I "think" you are much more invested in Bitcoin than I am,

No idea. Other than pretty much everyone that I know would be downright astonished to learn the value of my Bitcoin holdings. Read into that what you will.

so I supposse whatever you support you do it in your belief that it will be a price boost instead of the oppossite.

Absolutely.

Also you seem to be "tech inclined" so that's why I want to understand your position.

While not particularly literate in Bitcoin tech (i.e., I've not studied to the point where I would be a competent Bitcoin dev, though with study it is certainly not beyond my capabilities), I am indeed tech inclined. My day gig is in a significant tech position with a significant tech company.

Thanks for considering my position on its merits.

[empowering]

Is Bitstamp referring to lightning network transactions.

Yes. Because the're adding Litecoin this week.

⚡

[ImI]

Is Bitstamp referring to lightning network transactions.

Yes. Because the're adding Litecoin this week.

⚡

Nope, i expect they will go one step beyond and will add IOTA.

[promomei]

Guys dont you think ETH or ZEC gonna take BTC positions in the future
So BTC will be much cheaper and ETH with ZEC about 1000 $
 

[gentlemand]

Nope, i expect they will go one step beyond and will add IOTA.

They're a considerably classier operation than Bitfinex and would give a decent amount of signalling before doing that.

[ImI]

Nope, i expect they will go one step beyond and will add IOTA.

They're a considerably classier operation than Bitfinex and would give a decent amount of signalling before doing that.

Let's see.