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Question: Probability that we've seen the bottom of this bear market:
0% - 3 (2.5%)
1-5% - 4 (3.3%)
6-10% - 1 (0.8%)
11-15% - 0 (0%)
16-20% - 2 (1.7%)
21-25% - 2 (1.7%)
26-30% - 2 (1.7%)
31-35% - 1 (0.8%)
36-40% - 5 (4.1%)
41-45% - 2 (1.7%)
46-50% - 6 (5%)
51-55% - 7 (5.8%)
56-60% - 2 (1.7%)
61-65% - 1 (0.8%)
66-70% - 9 (7.4%)
71-75% - 7 (5.8%)
76-80% - 8 (6.6%)
81-85% - 12 (9.9%)
86-90% - 8 (6.6%)
91-95% - 7 (5.8%)
96-99% - 8 (6.6%)
100% - 24 (19.8%)
Total Voters: 121

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21125429 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (18 posts by 10 users deleted.)
Rosewater Foundation
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November 09, 2017, 11:35:35 PM

As someone who bought their first Bitcoin in 2012 for $20,

Indeed, I can't help but laugh at all the thousands of newcomers who just read r/bitcoin and suddenly think they are scaling experts. That Bitcoin should be able to run a node on every Raspberry Pi in Afghanistan. Yada yada yada. This is psychologically manipulated groupthink. Let's face it - many of the people getting into Bitcoin today are "newbies" who weren't very smart or educated in the first place. But they all like to act like they are, ESPECIALLY when it comes to their opinions on the Blocksize debate - an opinion that was only formed through reddit. Oh boy do they love repeating those opinions, and screaming down anyone who disagrees, like a bunch of drunken fratboys who think they are about to lose their virginity. Only a very small minority are capable of using logic or reason.

It's both amusing and kind of sickening to watch happen.

Anyway, now that the dust has settled and the "1mb forever" crowd has won, Legacy Bitcoin will likely never scale in any meaningful kind of way - Meaning Legacy BTC will never be anything more than a speculator's toy to get rich, a gateway to altcoins and FIAT and a settlement layer.

However, I still fully expect the combined speculator and institutional investor money to take Legacy Bitcoin to 50 - 100K and beyond. However, it will become impossible to move coin at some point on the main chain , with $100+ fees, making a very large percentage of BTC wallets unspendable. At that point, the vast majority of Crypto users and commerce will have already moved to either Bitcoin Cash, Monero or Ethereum. In the long long run, 5+ years, I fully expect either Bitcoin Cash, Monero or Ethereum to become the #1 coin with the highest market cap. It's inevitable now that Bitcoin will never scale - and let's be honest, Lightning Network will either never exist or will never deliver as promised --- which means BTC is going to be stuck where it is now from the scaling perspective, with only a few band-aids thrown on top, likely forever -- unless the miners finally grow a pair, say enough is enough and stand up to the bought out Corporate shills at Blockstream, but I'm not holding out hope for that outcome at all.


I've also been around a long time and agree with your sentiments. The behavior on reddit is terrible - I can only assume they are just young and stupid? I try my best not to assume malice or conspiracy...

Maybe it's time we set up a real Rosewater Foundation where the elders can train a few of these future millionaires on the ways of being a virtuous person.

Exhibit A:



I just noticed one of my favourite posters sold his account. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1718384.msg24234311#msg24234311
Social engineering is big business now. It wouldn't surprise me if those all belong to the same troll/s. Real people don't talk like that.
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November 09, 2017, 11:43:52 PM

Former Bitcoin King is Bankrupt and could be rich again.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/former-bitcoin-king-is-bankruptand-he-could-get-rich-again-1510223405

because the claims by people who deposited bitcoin at Mt. Gox are calculated based on the yen value of the cryptocurrency at the beginning of Mt. Gox liquidation proceedings in April 2014
...
Mr. Karpelès’s company, called Tibanne, owns about 88% of Mt. Gox.

The bankruptcy estate for Mt. Gox holds 202,185 bitcoins worth about ¥169 billion or $1.5 billion at current rates. Meanwhile, the trustee has recognized claims by exchange customers of ¥46 billion based on the April 2014 bitcoin price, a procedure that lawyers say has a sound basis in bankruptcy law.
...

Omg...Karpelès.....Bankrupty laws make no sense.  How can they make him a billionaire?Huh??   Really!!!!!
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November 10, 2017, 12:34:31 AM

WSJ article is paywalled. Here's an imgur image.

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November 10, 2017, 12:37:31 AM

As someone who bought their first Bitcoin in 2012 for $20,

Indeed, I can't help but laugh at all the thousands of newcomers who just read r/bitcoin and suddenly think they are scaling experts. That Bitcoin should be able to run a node on every Raspberry Pi in Afghanistan. Yada yada yada. This is psychologically manipulated groupthink. Let's face it - many of the people getting into Bitcoin today are "newbies" who weren't very smart or educated in the first place. But they all like to act like they are, ESPECIALLY when it comes to their opinions on the Blocksize debate - an opinion that was only formed through reddit. Oh boy do they love repeating those opinions, and screaming down anyone who disagrees, like a bunch of drunken fratboys who think they are about to lose their virginity. Only a very small minority are capable of using logic or reason.

It's both amusing and kind of sickening to watch happen.

Anyway, now that the dust has settled and the "1mb forever" crowd has won, Legacy Bitcoin will likely never scale in any meaningful kind of way - Meaning Legacy BTC will never be anything more than a speculator's toy to get rich, a gateway to altcoins and FIAT and a settlement layer.

However, I still fully expect the combined speculator and institutional investor money to take Legacy Bitcoin to 50 - 100K and beyond. However, it will become impossible to move coin at some point on the main chain , with $100+ fees, making a very large percentage of BTC wallets unspendable. At that point, the vast majority of Crypto users and commerce will have already moved to either Bitcoin Cash, Monero or Ethereum. In the long long run, 5+ years, I fully expect either Bitcoin Cash, Monero or Ethereum to become the #1 coin with the highest market cap. It's inevitable now that Bitcoin will never scale - and let's be honest, Lightning Network will either never exist or will never deliver as promised --- which means BTC is going to be stuck where it is now from the scaling perspective, with only a few band-aids thrown on top, likely forever -- unless the miners finally grow a pair, say enough is enough and stand up to the bought out Corporate shills at Blockstream, but I'm not holding out hope for that outcome at all.


I've also been around a long time and agree with your sentiments. The behavior on reddit is terrible - I can only assume they are just young and stupid? I try my best not to assume malice or conspiracy...

Maybe it's time we set up a real Rosewater Foundation where the elders can train a few of these future millionaires on the ways of being a virtuous person.

Exhibit A:




Although I never frequent reddit, I see shades of that here too.

 
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November 10, 2017, 12:44:23 AM

WSJ article is paywalled. Here's an imgur image.



That last sentence is about as bearish as fk.
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November 10, 2017, 12:51:58 AM

Bitstamp is pumping again  Grin Grin
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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November 10, 2017, 12:52:38 AM


looking at the 4 hour optamisum chart we should  hit $7400 in a few hours  Smiley

Jesus Christ, this guy and his magic 4 hour optamisum chart.


MOTHERFUCKING BUY BUY BUY!!!


Are we on our way? 


Must we bow to the deity?


 Cheesy Cheesy
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November 10, 2017, 12:54:03 AM

I guess nobody reads the last sentence anymore. Cheesy
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November 10, 2017, 12:55:00 AM

Carolina incoming!

via Imgflip Meme Generator
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November 10, 2017, 12:55:45 AM

Although I never frequent reddit, I see shades of that here too.

HAHA ! Suck my dick, idiot !

Good luck !

DIE BitCH DIE !!!!
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Godspeed Elwar and Nadia.


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November 10, 2017, 01:05:20 AM

Although I never frequent reddit, I see shades of that here too.

HAHA ! Suck my dick, idiot !

Good luck !

DIE BitCH DIE !!!!

Just lost a mouthful of coke zero!
Lol
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November 10, 2017, 01:06:22 AM

God damn, ol' magical tux looking pretty trim and smug there.

Whatever he's doing it agrees with him, hasn't looked so good in years...punchable...but good.
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November 10, 2017, 01:07:12 AM

See, the altcoin pumpers are some of the stupidest people on earth.

They pump them all. Literally ALL OF THEM at the same time.

Then their troll army spams the Bitcoin forums with "This [ONE altcoin X] is going to take over Bitcoin!"

Yeah, that's real convincing work there.  They must all be special unicorns. If only we knew which one. /s Roll Eyes
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November 10, 2017, 01:08:26 AM

Nice little pump underway.

The order book on stamp looks a little unbalanced - there is a sudden drop off of coins above $8k

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November 10, 2017, 01:24:41 AM
Last edit: November 10, 2017, 07:23:14 AM by jojo69

I would like to clarify my position regarding Mark Karpeles lest my last post be taken out of context.  While he does look eminently punchable in that particular pic, I actually bear him no ill will.  It is my belief that Mark was simply in over his head, that when he got robbed he tried to find a workaround with the willy bot but events caught up with him.

My personal story is that I was able to get the lion's share of my modest holdings off of GOX without issue well after the alarm bells were sounding.  I believe that he set some sort of algorithm or threshold that locked large accounts near the end, while allowing smaller fish to escape, and for this noble act I applaud him.

I still think he was a dumbass who was in over his head, but I do not believe he ever meant to harm anyone.
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November 10, 2017, 01:26:38 AM

See, the altcoin pumpers are some of the stupidest people on earth.

They pump them all. Literally ALL OF THEM at the same time.

Then their troll army spams the Bitcoin forums with "This [ONE altcoin X] is going to take over Bitcoin!"

Yeah, that's real convincing work there.  They must all be special unicorns. If only we knew which one. /s Roll Eyes

true however "onecoin" takes it to a whole new plateau Cool bwhaha
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November 10, 2017, 01:37:09 AM

tonnes of scope for Ver to scam people for the wrong bitcoin

There isn't a right bitcoin because nobody ever solved the problems of decentralization or scaling.  Not to mention decentralization is a problem that's not possible to solve in craptocurrency, rendering the entire exercise pointless and inferior to gold and silver as money which already existed beforehand.

The only way bitcoin could theoretically derive some type of value is from transaction flow and not stock, since it's mostly an imaginary idea/thing in the first place.  You can't store value in an imaginary asset.  It's value could only come from whatever possible utility it provides.  It doesn't have value just from existing (stock)...because it doesn't really even exist.  Gold and silver have actual scarcity.  Bitcoin is based on artificial scarcity.  This makes it similar to fiat from an economics point of view, in that any value over zero is technically a bubble, it's only a question of how long the bubble lasts.  But the market will eventually take the value back down to zero again.  It could come quick and painful like Venezeulan fiat, or longer and drawn out like USD fiat.

So, without trying to take sides on any dumb tertiary issues that I dont' care about between people like Roger Ver, Maxwell, and the Gavinator, the fact is that bitcoin is not decentralized and never will be decentralized, so whether your blocks are big or small doesn't really matter all too much.  From the economics point of view, the bitcoin value should be HIGHLY correlated to scaling (flow) and zero to do with stock because it's a fucking imaginary asset.  So if your goal is just to try and increase the value of your pump and dump (let's face it, that's all bitcoin is because without solving the problem of decentralization, it has zero fundamentals and it's not possible to solve), then you would want to raise scaling at all costs in an attempt to inflate the pump and dump before it inevitably impoldes and people park their money in non-imaginary assets instead.
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November 10, 2017, 02:13:53 AM

tonnes of scope for Ver to scam people for the wrong bitcoin

There isn't a right bitcoin because nobody ever solved the problems of decentralization or scaling.  Not to mention decentralization is a problem that's not possible to solve in craptocurrency, rendering the entire exercise pointless and inferior to gold and silver as money which already existed beforehand.

The only way bitcoin could theoretically derive some type of value is from transaction flow and not stock, since it's mostly an imaginary idea/thing in the first place.  You can't store value in an imaginary asset.  It's value could only come from whatever possible utility it provides.  It doesn't have value just from existing (stock)...because it doesn't really even exist.  Gold and silver have actual scarcity.  Bitcoin is based on artificial scarcity.  This makes it similar to fiat from an economics point of view, in that any value over zero is technically a bubble, it's only a question of how long the bubble lasts.  But the market will eventually take the value back down to zero again.  It could come quick and painful like Venezeulan fiat, or longer and drawn out like USD fiat.

So, without trying to take sides on any dumb tertiary issues that I dont' care about between people like Roger Ver, Maxwell, and the Gavinator, the fact is that bitcoin is not decentralized and never will be decentralized, so whether your blocks are big or small doesn't really matter all too much.  From the economics point of view, the bitcoin value should be HIGHLY correlated to scaling (flow) and zero to do with stock because it's a fucking imaginary asset.  So if your goal is just to try and increase the value of your pump and dump (let's face it, that's all bitcoin is because without solving the problem of decentralization, it has zero fundamentals and it's not possible to solve), then you would want to raise scaling at all costs in an attempt to inflate the pump and dump before it inevitably impoldes and people park their money in non-imaginary assets instead.


I remember a time when Roach was posting meme's about his trading profits. I saw a happy Roach in that time.

Roach is not so happy these days, he loves shitting on Bitcoin...i know why!

Roach sold at the bottom Kiss
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November 10, 2017, 02:15:29 AM

FUD





Rosewater Foundation
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November 10, 2017, 02:18:31 AM

tonnes of scope for Ver to scam people for the wrong bitcoin

but...


I remember a time when Roach was posting meme's about his trading profits. I saw a happy Roach in that time.

Roach is not so happy these days, he loves shitting on Bitcoin...i know why!

Roach sold at the bottom Kiss

Is that why it's called 'being Roached' out of the market? No wonder he's so bitter. Cry
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