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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 20878273 times)
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BobLawblaw
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November 05, 2017, 05:00:37 PM

Well I successfully did that. But had I left my original investment in it would have nearly doubled in fiat value again. C'est la vie.

 If it's any consolation, I'm going to be liquidating $2M worth of BTC middle of 2018 and retiring early.

 I'm already kicking myself because I know in another 10 years, that $2M i'm going to sell will be incalculably more valuable.

 Then I put things into perspective and think "Well, the rest of the ~70% of my Bitcoin stash should appreciate nicely over time..."

 In theory.

 My partner is going to continue working for another couple years before joining me in early retirement.

 Gonna be their sexy pool boy and french maid for a couple years in the meantime...
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Ibian
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November 05, 2017, 05:04:21 PM

All the same, there will be a drop at some point, and it will be big. At least in dollar terms. I hope everyone has a plan prepared.

She does look like she is facing something deadly, don't she. Yeah, no fucking wonder she doesn't want an audit.
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November 05, 2017, 05:07:13 PM

Is there any danger in holding coins on a segwit address vs a legacy address in trezor? Say if segwit got back-peddled.

I don't think so. I can't see any scenario right now where SegWit would get deprecated, at least in the foreseeable future.
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November 05, 2017, 05:09:13 PM

Well I successfully did that. But had I left my original investment in it would have nearly doubled in fiat value again. C'est la vie.

 If it's any consolation, I'm going to be liquidating $2M worth of BTC middle of 2018 and retiring early.

 I'm already kicking myself because I know in another 10 years, that $2M i'm going to sell will be incalculably more valuable.

 Then I put things into perspective and think "Well, the rest of the ~70% of my Bitcoin stash should appreciate nicely over time..."

 In theory.

 My partner is going to continue working for another couple years before joining me in early retirement.

 Gonna be their sexy pool boy and french maid for a couple years in the meantime...

Good for you Bob. Enjoy it while you can. You only live once!
mmmmyah
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November 05, 2017, 05:16:07 PM

Predictions: 16K by 2018, 100K by 2025. What do you guys think?
AlcoHoDL
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November 05, 2017, 05:16:31 PM

Well I successfully did that. But had I left my original investment in it would have nearly doubled in fiat value again. C'est la vie.

 If it's any consolation, I'm going to be liquidating $2M worth of BTC middle of 2018 and retiring early.

 I'm already kicking myself because I know in another 10 years, that $2M i'm going to sell will be incalculably more valuable.

 Then I put things into perspective and think "Well, the rest of the ~70% of my Bitcoin stash should appreciate nicely over time..."

 In theory.

 My partner is going to continue working for another couple years before joining me in early retirement.

 Gonna be their sexy pool boy and french maid for a couple years in the meantime...

I did a quick calculation, using current prices, about how many BTC you have, and came up with a whopping 889 BTC!

Really good for you, I'm jealous, as I'm nowhere near that amount. If I had that much I'd definitely do the same. As mentioned, we only live once, so we'd better make the most of it.
JimboToronto
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November 05, 2017, 05:16:53 PM

Well I successfully did that. But had I left my original investment in it would have nearly doubled in fiat value again. C'est la vie.

 If it's any consolation, I'm going to be liquidating $2M worth of BTC middle of 2018 and retiring early.

 I'm already kicking myself because I know in another 10 years, that $2M i'm going to sell will be incalculably more valuable.

Why buy that much fiat all at once? Why not just buy as much as you need as you go along.

I'd rather be retired with as much Bitcoin as possible growing in cold storage far more than a bunch of crumbling dollars in some bank account.

If you need to buy a new car, or some  real estate, or simply some cash to party with, by all means spend some coins as need be.

Otherwise it makes more sense to just continue holding.
xhomerx10
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November 05, 2017, 05:21:13 PM

Alessio Rastani revises Elliot count, now says wave 3, $10,000 "unstoppable"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmDLylVbfFI

Why the hard swallowing?  If you watch at 1:20 right before he says "...from an Elliot wave perspective" and again at 2:32 when he says, "There is support as I mentioned before..." he swallows hard which is an indication of dry throat from a stress reaction.  Does Mr. Rastani believe what he's saying?
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November 05, 2017, 05:21:38 PM

Well I successfully did that. But had I left my original investment in it would have nearly doubled in fiat value again. C'est la vie.

 If it's any consolation, I'm going to be liquidating $2M worth of BTC middle of 2018 and retiring early.

 I'm already kicking myself because I know in another 10 years, that $2M i'm going to sell will be incalculably more valuable.

Why buy that much fiat all at once? Why not just buy as much as you need as you go along.

I'd rather be retired with as much Bitcoin as possible growing in cold storage far more than a bunch of crumbling dollars in some bank account.

If you need to buy a new car, or some  real estate, or simply some cash to party with, by all means spend some coins as need be.

Otherwise it makes more sense to just continue holding.

What if Bitcoin implodes and goes down to zero? What then? I think his approach is smarter, as he is guaranteed to enjoy the rest of his life with his $2m, even if Bitcoin disappears. And he is still left with more than 600 BTC for the future.
Ibian
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November 05, 2017, 05:24:15 PM

Alessio Rastani revises Elliot count, now says wave 3, $10,000 "unstoppable"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmDLylVbfFI

Why the hard swallowing?  If you watch at 1:20 right before he says "...from an Elliot wave perspective" and again at 2:32 when he says, "There is support as I mentioned before..." he swallows hard which is an indication of dry throat from a stress reaction.  Does Mr. Rastani believe what he's saying?
You can hear the swallowing.

I'm neither for or against your hypothesis and I don't know or care about this gentleman, but holy fuck that's creepy.
Wekkel
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November 05, 2017, 05:25:21 PM

Predictions: 16K by 2018, 100K by 2025. What do you guys think?

16K 2018 is positive, but doable (looks like we go bubble again soon).

100k by 2025 is much too conservative. That would be 7 (!) agonising years with not much happening to Bitcoin except for dribbling higher.
xhomerx10
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November 05, 2017, 05:29:44 PM

Well I successfully did that. But had I left my original investment in it would have nearly doubled in fiat value again. C'est la vie.

 If it's any consolation, I'm going to be liquidating $2M worth of BTC middle of 2018 and retiring early.

 I'm already kicking myself because I know in another 10 years, that $2M i'm going to sell will be incalculably more valuable.

Why buy that much fiat all at once? Why not just buy as much as you need as you go along.

I'd rather be retired with as much Bitcoin as possible growing in cold storage far more than a bunch of crumbling dollars in some bank account.

If you need to buy a new car, or some  real estate, or simply some cash to party with, by all means spend some coins as need be.

Otherwise it makes more sense to just continue holding.

  I wouldn't cash in enough Bitcoin to buy a car or real estate even.  Borrow the fiat and pay it on time.  In the 4 years you are paying off the vehicle with fiat or the 25 years of the mortgage, Bitcoin will have appreciated much more than the interest rate of your loan.  In the US you can also write off your mortgage interest against your income.
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November 05, 2017, 05:31:06 PM

Is there any danger in holding coins on a segwit address vs a legacy address in trezor? Say if segwit got back-peddled.

I don't think so. I can't see any scenario right now where SegWit would get deprecated, at least in the foreseeable future.

As with any software, there is always the possibility of some vulnerability lurking about. I have heard that it may be possible to rollback the Segwit transactions and reward the attacker via a 51% attack. However, any coins you hold, segwit or not, are vulnerable to being lost in a 51% attack. So whatever. I really do not see any big player wanting to implement a 51% anyway since the market is not liquid enough to help them make a huge profit by shorting before the attack is implemented. I would think after a successful attack, BTC would be basically worthless anyway. So the attacker could not possibly profit from dumping any ill gotten gains. I doubt any big player would be willing to expend millions if not billions just to destroy BTC outright. If they wanted to do this to divert equity away from BTC to some other asset market, it's likely to not divert enough equity to their pet asset to make such an attack profitable.
BobLawblaw
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November 05, 2017, 05:36:34 PM

Why buy that much fiat all at once? Why not just buy as much as you need as you go along.

1) For tax purposes - Really simplifies things for that year - I need to start thinking about simplifying taxes if I'm retiring.
2) So I can properly allocate it, in one go, to institutional investments that I can consistently draw down-on before I turn 65 - When my retirement portfolio becomes accessible

 I thought about selling BTC as needed - It's likely to be much more lucrative long-term - but I'm someone who likes simplicity when it comes to accounting and the IRS.

 Either way, still have 9 months or so before I'll be doing anything.

 God only knows what Bitcorn is going to do between now and then...
JimboToronto
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November 05, 2017, 05:40:31 PM

Well I successfully did that. But had I left my original investment in it would have nearly doubled in fiat value again. C'est la vie.

 If it's any consolation, I'm going to be liquidating $2M worth of BTC middle of 2018 and retiring early.

 I'm already kicking myself because I know in another 10 years, that $2M i'm going to sell will be incalculably more valuable.

Why buy that much fiat all at once? Why not just buy as much as you need as you go along.

I'd rather be retired with as much Bitcoin as possible growing in cold storage far more than a bunch of crumbling dollars in some bank account.

If you need to buy a new car, or some  real estate, or simply some cash to party with, by all means spend some coins as need be.

Otherwise it makes more sense to just continue holding.

What if Bitcoin implodes and goes down to zero? What then? I think his approach is smarter, as he is guaranteed to enjoy the rest of his life with his $2m, even if Bitcoin disappears. And he is still left with more than 600 BTC for the future.

What if the dollar implodes and goes down to zero? It's probably as likely as Bitcoin imploding and going to zero, although both are extremely unlikely.

I can see hedging your bet by spending some coins on appreciating assets like businesses, land, or other means of production.

Fiat currency doesn't appreciate. It's a depreciating asset.
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November 05, 2017, 05:41:31 PM

Why buy that much fiat all at once? Why not just buy as much as you need as you go along.

1) For tax purposes - Really simplifies things for that year - I need to start thinking about simplifying taxes if I'm retiring.
2) So I can properly allocate it, in one go, to institutional investments that I can consistently draw down-on before I turn 65 - When my retirement portfolio becomes accessible

 I thought about selling BTC as needed - It's likely to be much more lucrative long-term - but I'm someone who likes simplicity when it comes to accounting and the IRS.

 Either way, still have 9 months or so before I'll be doing anything.

 God only knows what Bitcorn is going to do between now and then...

You are an hero.
I didn't know how you managed to hold an amount of btc sufficient for retirement for a so long time, my fear is that if I will ever achieve it (and we're talking about far more than lambo levels, because my stash is damned too little) I will immediately sell 90% or so for retirement purpose.
JimboToronto
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November 05, 2017, 05:53:45 PM

Why buy that much fiat all at once? Why not just buy as much as you need as you go along.

1) For tax purposes - Really simplifies things for that year - I need to start thinking about simplifying taxes if I'm retiring.
2) So I can properly allocate it, in one go, to institutional investments that I can consistently draw down-on before I turn 65 - When my retirement portfolio becomes accessible

 I thought about selling BTC as needed - It's likely to be much more lucrative long-term - but I'm someone who likes simplicity when it comes to accounting and the IRS.

 Either way, still have 9 months or so before I'll be doing anything.

 God only knows what Bitcorn is going to do between now and then...

Fair enough. I can understand the tax thing as it falls into the category of stress avoidance and stress is a killer. However, depending on the tax laws where you live it could cost you. Here in Canada you only need to pay capital gains taxes as you sell your coins and you'd save a lot by splitting it up over multiple years.

As for your "institutional investments", you're not really selling your coins. You're using them to purchase other financial/investment products. That's exactly what I was talking about in my last post, hedging your bet by buying appreciating assets.
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November 05, 2017, 06:06:07 PM

Well I successfully did that. But had I left my original investment in it would have nearly doubled in fiat value again. C'est la vie.

 If it's any consolation, I'm going to be liquidating $2M worth of BTC middle of 2018 and retiring early.

 I'm already kicking myself because I know in another 10 years, that $2M i'm going to sell will be incalculably more valuable.

Why buy that much fiat all at once? Why not just buy as much as you need as you go along.

I'd rather be retired with as much Bitcoin as possible growing in cold storage far more than a bunch of crumbling dollars in some bank account.

If you need to buy a new car, or some  real estate, or simply some cash to party with, by all means spend some coins as need be.

Otherwise it makes more sense to just continue holding.

What if Bitcoin implodes and goes down to zero? What then? I think his approach is smarter, as he is guaranteed to enjoy the rest of his life with his $2m, even if Bitcoin disappears. And he is still left with more than 600 BTC for the future.

What if the dollar implodes and goes down to zero? It's probably as likely as Bitcoin imploding and going to zero, although both are extremely unlikely.

I can see hedging your bet by spending some coins on appreciating assets like businesses, land, or other means of production.

Fiat currency doesn't appreciate. It's a depreciating asset.

I do hope you're right about Bitcoin going to zero being extremely unlikely. If Bitcoin's value keeps increasing, then it's obvious that your strategy makes the most sense and guarantees maximum profitability, and also low to zero taxation for those of us with modest needs, as the conversion to fiat can be kept to a minimum and only when needed. Also, converting large amounts of BTC to fiat has its own problems. Do we trust the banks to hold our fiat? What if there's a bail-in, as it has already happened in Cyprus? Then there's the depreciation of fiat due to inflation.

All these are valid reasons not to liquidate, and follow your strategy, provided Bitcoin keeps rising (or, at least, not dropping) in value. I hope Bitcoin has a bright future, but no one can know for sure, hence my conservative reply to BobLawblaw's post.
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November 05, 2017, 06:18:33 PM



This is actually a lambo and practical and I suggest also using it to carry some gold bars not spending just for supercars.    Working assets is the best way to save, diversify to meet future costs hence why property used to be such a good idea.   Land and the skills to build a house or help build a house seems a good investment imo, never stay all in one thing outside of speculation
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November 05, 2017, 06:29:23 PM

Why the hard swallowing?

He is practically stuttering the entire video.  Grin
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