Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitserve]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

That second part is what worries me... if they massively short the futures with their huge piles of cash... couldn't that also "move the bitcoins price by mere arbitrage" DOWN?

Naked short selling anyone?

[explorer]

I think there is much more than 1M bitcoins lost.

and when you google for these lost bitcoins stories most are really dated numbers in terms of value.
You literally have to multiply the reported value 15 fold making it even more "head shaking worthy." (for want of a better term)
So for example this familiar story
I'm sure most of the legendaries/heroes in here have heard about the
7500 bitcoins lost valued at over a reported $5 million then that are now worth around $70 million.
And this is just one story of many.
It's mind blowing when you think about it.

No one takes into account the dust left behind everywhere.  

I have one inaccessible wallet containing enough for a good night out year's salary.  The other one has only dust  enough for a really good night out.  Still only makes me smile and shake my head at my own stupidity.

To be revisited after the next batch of zeroes are handed out.  

Why is it inaccessible? You don't remember absolutely anything about the password you might have used or is it another thing?

Strong passwords, lost.  I kept notes on the variations tried and failed, but it's years ago now.  Water under the bridge, but maybe worth revisiting someday.  If a family member continues an interest in cryptography then perhaps I will hand over the notes some day.  There is a pot of gold at the end of that rainbow, if you can reach it  No worries.

Even if it is strong, if it is not purely random -which probably isn't- and you do remember some hints about what you might have used -most people do even have some "style" of generation- it would potentially be crackeable with the right custom rules. It also depends on the actual value of the wallet to determine if it would be worth the effort or not.

If you even tried variations manually it sounds like you have some general idea of how it could be formed. There's hope.

Exactly.  It is not critical to my net crypto at this point, but could make a great project/windfall someday.  Who knows, I might even get around to learning how to crack it myself someday. 

[HairyMaclairy]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

Sorry but no. They are cash settled.  It is a fiat bet on bitcoin price in $.  Nothing more.

Other players will move BTC price by arb.  

[Heater]

$9,500 USD on Bitstamp - a new ATH

The blow-off top may be closer than we think - who knows. Get ye self ready.

[explorer]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

I understood that they were USD settled.  As in zero BTC contact, unless one used it independently to hedge the futures.  Basically USD bets on the price of BTC, a good ol' derivative that can be used to control prices with unlimited paper.

[HairyMaclairy]

$9600 BFx. 

[bitserve]

I think there is much more than 1M bitcoins lost.

and when you google for these lost bitcoins stories most are really dated numbers in terms of value.
You literally have to multiply the reported value 15 fold making it even more "head shaking worthy." (for want of a better term)
So for example this familiar story
I'm sure most of the legendaries/heroes in here have heard about the
7500 bitcoins lost valued at over a reported $5 million then that are now worth around $70 million.
And this is just one story of many.
It's mind blowing when you think about it.

No one takes into account the dust left behind everywhere.  

I have one inaccessible wallet containing enough for a good night out year's salary.  The other one has only dust  enough for a really good night out.  Still only makes me smile and shake my head at my own stupidity.

To be revisited after the next batch of zeroes are handed out.  

Why is it inaccessible? You don't remember absolutely anything about the password you might have used or is it another thing?

Strong passwords, lost.  I kept notes on the variations tried and failed, but it's years ago now.  Water under the bridge, but maybe worth revisiting someday.  If a family member continues an interest in cryptography then perhaps I will hand over the notes some day.  There is a pot of gold at the end of that rainbow, if you can reach it  No worries.

Even if it is strong, if it is not purely random -which probably isn't- and you do remember some hints about what you might have used -most people do even have some "style" of generation- it would potentially be crackeable with the right custom rules. It also depends on the actual value of the wallet to determine if it would be worth the effort or not.

If you even tried variations manually it sounds like you have some general idea of how it could be formed. There's hope.

Exactly.  It is not critical to my net crypto at this point, but could make a great project/windfall someday.  Who knows, I might even get around to learning how to crack it myself someday.  

Just make sure you keep good backup of the file and the notes about that password... and also write down everything you can still remember about it before you forget everything about it if you intend to do that in the future. Maybe it would be doable right now but with time cracking speed will keep improving with improved computers and more efficient attacks. Was it a bitcoin core wallet regular password?

[TERA2]

Bitfinex allowed shorting and the Nov 2013 bubble started right after they opened.

[fragout]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

Sorry but no. They are cash settled.  It is a fiat bet on bitcoin price in $.  Nothing more.

Other players will move BTC price by arb.  

This is correct. Cash settled.
could you explain the arb angle though?

[bitserve]

Bitfinex allowed shorting and the Nov 2013 bubble started right after they opened.

Didn't know Bitfinex was operating or had any relevancy at that time. I thought it was mostly MtGox and Bitstamp and to some lesser extent BTC-e.

Anyway, Bitfinex is a BITCOIN exchange so it is in their best interest not to completely crash Bitcoin. Can't say the same about traditional brokers. That's why I don't really know what will be the impact of it.

[gentlemand]

I understood that they were USD settled.  As in zero BTC contact, unless one used it independently to hedge the futures.  Basically USD bets on the price of BTC, a good ol' derivative that can be used to control prices with unlimited paper.

Is there not a possibility that the 'real' Bitcoin market will simply ignore it and crack on?

It's a market that has sprung up and thrived without the wonders of Wall St, and it's also something that requires no accredited bollocks and can be settled and owned for real by real people 24/7 across the planet unlike their countless other playthings.

[JimboToronto]

Something that seems to have gone unnoticed around here is that the total crypto market cap blew right past a quarter trillion dollars and is now approaching $.3t.

We waited a long time for this. Is the adoption curve getting close to going vertical?

[windjc]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

Sorry but no. They are cash settled.  It is a fiat bet on bitcoin price in $.  Nothing more.

Other players will move BTC price by arb.  

This is correct. Cash settled.
could you explain the arb angle though?

Look. Basically although its cash settled, if you are a market maker for a short, you need to buy BTC as a hedge against that short you just made. The fact that SHORTS can only be sold after BTC is bought (theoretically they dont technically have to be in Cash settled, but they will be just the same) means that shorts create BUYS.  So this is bullish.

[TERA2]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

Sorry but no. They are cash settled.  It is a fiat bet on bitcoin price in $.  Nothing more.

Other players will move BTC price by arb.  

This is correct. Cash settled.
could you explain the arb angle though?

One person can have both an account on a bitcoin exchange and a futures exchange. When one exchange is higher than the other they buy one and sell the other.

Or a person with a bitcoin exchange account makes some kind of private deal with someone with an futures account.

I could probably find more by Googling about futures arbitrage.

[TERA2]

I dont think you can say more liquidity is negative just because there is shorting. When a stock goes from being listed on otc to being listed on nasdaq or nyse (where people can short), it is always positive.

[HairyMaclairy]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

Sorry but no. They are cash settled.  It is a fiat bet on bitcoin price in $.  Nothing more.

Other players will move BTC price by arb.  

This is correct. Cash settled.
could you explain the arb angle though?

One person can have both an account on a bitcoin exchange and a futures exchange. When one exchange is higher than the other they buy one and sell the other.

Or a person with a bitcoin exchange account makes some kind of private deal with someone with an futures account.

I could probably find more by Googling about futures arbitrage.

I don’t think JPM Morgan can trade on Gdax on its own account.

[TheJuice]

A wall at 9600. If that falls, not much left until the 10k wall of walls.

[explorer]

Bitfinex allowed shorting and the Nov 2013 bubble started right after they opened.

Didn't know Bitfinex was operating or had any relevancy at that time. I thought it was mostly MtGox and Bitstamp and to some lesser extent BTC-e.

Anyway, Bitfinex is a BITCOIN exchange so it is in their best interest not to completely crash Bitcoin. Can't say the same about traditional brokers. That's why I don't really know what will be the impact of it.

IIRC they settled on Bitstamp until they were big enough to leave the nest.  It was a weird sort of relationship.

[BitcoinBunny]

Something that seems to have gone unnoticed around here is that the total crypto market cap blew right past a quarter trillion dollars and is now approaching $.3t.

We waited a long time for this. Is the adoption curve getting close to going vertical?

I noticed.  

I pointed out that if the trend continues we've seen recently and even if Bitcoin only makes up 40% of the total crypto market then in one year's time => 1 BTC = $35.000.

Though if the influx REALLY were to carry on with $10 billion per day we've seen last 5 days.
=>
$4 Trillion total market cap
say $1.6 Trillion BTC market cap.
In one year say 17.5 million BTC.

$1.600.000.000.000 / 17.500.000 = $91.428 per BTC.

[TheJuice]

Something that seems to have gone unnoticed around here is that the total crypto market cap blew right past a quarter trillion dollars and is now approaching $.3t.

We waited a long time for this. Is the adoption curve getting close to going vertical?

The best part about this run up is it really seems to be US interest. No more china. No more korea. It is USA, and a lot of little (and big) guys it seems.