Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rolling]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

Sorry but no. They are cash settled.  It is a fiat bet on bitcoin price in $.  Nothing more.

Other players will move BTC price by arb.  

This is correct. Cash settled.
could you explain the arb angle though?

Here is how I understand it:
Trade 1:
If the futures contract price is above the current BTC price (say future contract is $11000 vs actual BTC at $10000):
(1) Sell (short) the futures contract. $11000
(2) Buy actual BTC for a lower price than the futures contract settlement rate. $10000
(3) Wait until the futures contract settlement date to cash in the futures contract and sell the BTC you bought as part of this trade.

It's a risk free trade. No matter what happens, you have a $1000 USD profit minus trading fees and borrowing costs.
If BTC/USD drops to $9000, you will lose $1000 value on your BTC but your futures contract short will be worth $2000 so a net profit of $1000.
If BTC/USD stays at $10000, your BTC is worth what you bought it for but your futures contract short is worth $1000 so a net profit of $1000.
If BTC/USD goes to $11000 and the contract settlement rate is $11000, you make nothing on the contract but the BTC you bought for $10000 is worth $11000 so a net profit of $1000.
If BTC/USD goes up to $12000, your BTC will be worth $2000 more than you bought if for but you will lose $1000 on the futures contract short so a net profit of $1000.

Trade 2:
If the futures contract price is below the current BTC price (say future contract is $9000 vs actual BTC at $10000):
Reverse trade 1 above.

So, the prices should stay in sync assuming enough people arbitrage. Of course, traders know arbitrage will happen so prices should stay in sync even without it. The futures price will be an indicator traders will use.

The interesting part of either scenario is the limited supply of coins for sale and to borrow for shorting and the nearly unlimited supply of fiat in the world. Could get interesting.

[HairyMaclairy]

We are up 9.4% in 24 hours and I’m a party pooper !

[Rosewater Foundation]

We are up 9.4% in 24 hours and I’m a party pooper !

The world wants this. Just relax into it

[Icygreen]

Something that seems to have gone unnoticed around here is that the total crypto market cap blew right past a quarter trillion dollars and is now approaching $.3t.

We waited a long time for this. Is the adoption curve getting close to going vertical?

Also, the 24h volume is now greater than the total market cap of 1 year ago!  Yup, going vert!

[smartcomet]

Something that seems to have gone unnoticed around here is that the total crypto market cap blew right past a quarter trillion dollars and is now approaching $.3t.

We waited a long time for this. Is the adoption curve getting close to going vertical?

I noticed.  

I pointed out that if the trend continues we've seen recently and even if Bitcoin only makes up 40% of the total crypto market then in one year's time => 1 BTC = $35.000.

Though if the influx REALLY were to carry on with $10 billion per day we've seen last 5 days.
=>
$4 Trillion total market cap
say $1.6 Trillion BTC market cap.
In one year say 17.5 million BTC.

$1.600.000.000.000 / 17.500.000 = $91.428 per BTC.

@barrysilbert
UPDATED:
Bitcoin market cap ($150 billion) as a percent of gold in circulation ($7.5 trillion) = 2%

[HairyMaclairy]

If we hit gold market cap, hopefully most participants in this thread have enough for the rest of their lives.

[TheJuice]

If we hit gold market cap, hopefully most participants in this thread have enough for the rest of their lives.

It's hard to not take any profits!

[bitserve]

This weekend pump was a bit unexpected... and tomorrow is monday.

[JayJuanGee]

We are up 9.4% in 24 hours and I’m a party pooper !

Yes..  HairyMac...

You are fighting our UPPITY.

Take a chill pill and


CALM THE FUCK DOWN!!!


 

[True Myth]

Anyone else thinking as time zones wake up and check out the momentum that they pull a chunk of those sell orders at the 10k wall?  There is very little resistance after 10k on GDAX.  Next stop... moon?

[HairyMaclairy]

CANT YOU SEE IM TRYINF TO GET SOME WOEK DONEHERE?  HOW AM I SUPPOSED TONCONCENTRATE WITH YOU LOT MAKIG ALL THIS RACKET.

[TheJuice]

Anyone else thinking as time zones wake up and check out the momentum that they pull a chunk of those sell orders at the 10k wall?  There is very little resistance after 10k on GDAX.  Next stop... moon?

I actually think we will have a slight pull back tomorrow AM. There's going to be some profit taking. Suspect that won't last more than a few days and then we will shoot to 11-12k.

[HairyMaclairy]

Anyone else thinking as time zones wake up and check out the momentum that they pull a chunk of those sell orders at the 10k wall?  There is very little resistance after 10k on GDAX.  Next stop... moon?

I actually think we will have a slight pull back tomorrow AM. There's going to be some profit taking. Suspect that won't last more than a few days and then we will shoot to 11-12k.

Not this Monday.  There’s a wall of new users coming post Thanksgiving.

[TheJuice]

Anyone else thinking as time zones wake up and check out the momentum that they pull a chunk of those sell orders at the 10k wall?  There is very little resistance after 10k on GDAX.  Next stop... moon?

I actually think we will have a slight pull back tomorrow AM. There's going to be some profit taking. Suspect that won't last more than a few days and then we will shoot to 11-12k.

Not this Monday.  There’s a wall of new users coming post Thanksgiving.

True! I thought that might be why we had this weekend rally.

9750! this should be an interesting level to watch. Decent sell walls.

[True Myth]

Anyone else thinking as time zones wake up and check out the momentum that they pull a chunk of those sell orders at the 10k wall?  There is very little resistance after 10k on GDAX.  Next stop... moon?

I actually think we will have a slight pull back tomorrow AM. There's going to be some profit taking. Suspect that won't last more than a few days and then we will shoot to 11-12k.

Not this Monday.  There’s a wall of new users coming post Thanksgiving.

You guys are all forgetting that bitcoin is just manipulated by tether and bitfx. They are probably even beaming subconscious radio signals across the world to make people create coinbase accounts...  *sarcasm*

[TERA2]

The walls were gone LONG ago. I remember when Gox was breaking past $180 in Oct 2013, and someone said "Theres fucking nothing!" and they were pointing at the ask order book full of -only- 40k coins.

[windjc]

The walls were gone LONG ago. I remember when Gox was breaking past $180 in Oct 2013, and someone said "Theres fucking nothing!" and they were pointing at the ask order book full of -only- 40k coins.

TERA - you are like the original bear. I hope you didn't wait for those $99 coins and got back in before $9k

[pfrtlpfmpf]

I think there is much more than 1M bitcoins lost.

and when you google for these lost bitcoins stories most are really dated numbers in terms of value.
You literally have to multiply the reported value 15 fold making it even more "head shaking worthy." (for want of a better term)
So for example this familiar story
I'm sure most of the legendaries/heroes in here have heard about the
7500 bitcoins lost valued at over a reported $5 million then that are now worth around $70 million.
And this is just one story of many.
It's mind blowing when you think about it.

No one takes into account the dust left behind everywhere. 

I have one inaccessible wallet containing enough for a good night out year's salary.  The other one has only dust  enough for a really good night out.  Still only makes me smile and shake my head at my own stupidity.

To be revisited after the next batch of zeroes are handed out.   

Well that sucks my friend, really sorry to hear that.
Lost password? I only ask as that's what gets me paranoid now, due to an issue I recently had
when I set a password on a newly installed electrum wallet.
I SWEAR I had it right when trying to get back in...even written down... but nope. locked out. PHUUUUUK!!!
Should have tested BEFORE loading wallet with funds... duhhh! stupid phukkin me!!!

My recovery seed saved me...THAT was correct, phew!...thank phuk for that...Lesson learned.

Being in charge of one's own banking security has its merits to be sure.
 Just be aware of the downfalls as they can be costly indeed...

Oh, i know that sinking feeling very well, when your heart slips down into your bowel.
Also on a newly created electrum wallet, when claiming BTG from the old one, but it wasn´t the wallets fault.

I use a password-manager where i create 100+ chars passwords. When i wanted to back it up onto external drive, i had to close it first, and imo i saved the latest changes in it, i.e. new passwords for my new wallets.
But nope, they where gone ! !
Had to use the toilet immediately.  

Thankfully, i had the seeds written down. Phew.

My stupidity. Allways secure and backup newly created wallet-passwords first, BEFORE loading money into it, like "sirazimuth" says, and don´t hurry things !

I know, i know, you guys are not thaat stupid. (really never ? ? )

[TERA2]

The walls were gone LONG ago. I remember when Gox was breaking past $180 in Oct 2013, and someone said "Theres fucking nothing!" and they were pointing at the ask order book full of -only- 40k coins.

TERA - you are like the original bear. I hope you didn't wait for those $99 coins and got back in before $9k

I got my coins back at $130. From that point on I never sold more than half and periodically regenerate the other half with altcoin trading.

[TheJuice]

The walls were gone LONG ago. I remember when Gox was breaking past $180 in Oct 2013, and someone said "Theres fucking nothing!" and they were pointing at the ask order book full of -only- 40k coins.

TERA - you are like the original bear. I hope you didn't wait for those $99 coins and got back in before $9k

Haha. I remember the last time you could buy single digit coin, then double digit, then triple. Boys, this week is the last time you'll be able to buy quadruple digit coins.