Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[True Myth]

Just bumped my buy orders up a bit.  Seems like with this much momentum it isn't going to result in a massive dump like many are thinking.  I could be wrong but... I'm in it long so, I prefer to get my buy orders filled rather than wait forever for BTC to drop down to $6k to get slightly more coin for my dollars.

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[JayJuanGee]

This is moving too fast.

Said nobody ever

Hairy just did......you even quoted them.....

Gdax and BFX through $9700.  I am a hard bull but this is getting stupid.

Wat's up with the HairyMac party pooper?

Let's say that we are springing up from a $7600 foundation from 10 days ago, and so we have about a 26% price rise in 10 days... that is not as toppie as you are seeming to make it out to be.

Yeah, sure at some point we are going to get a top, and sure we are in a kind of exponential upwards at the moment - but there seems to be  a kind of ambition to break through $10k, no?

So maybe we just barely break through $10k and get a correction and let the buy support catch up, or maybe we shoot another 20% to 40% past $10k and then experience a kind of violent correction from there.. but don't we gotta get to $10k first and I don't really see the toppie of a 26% increase in 10 days as being as overblown as you are making it out to be in your seemingly parade raining mood.   

[TheJuice]

It's funny how we are just casually chatting as if nothing historical was about to happen

I haven't been in this tread for years. Had to come back to see when we hit $10,000. We used to buy beers for eachother with bitcoins. I left $2 in one of my addresses, now worth $50! 1BeERMeLkrzbRRkWJ4cfehB6iKhPp6BX49

BEERME!

[rolling]

Its definitely positive. It means everyone with a brokerage account suddenly has access to bitcoin without having to deposit onto a third party exchange they might not trust, and they can go in and out of bitcoin trades next to their stock trades. It means massive liquidity. Think billions of dollars suddenly added to the finex order book. Possibly with leverage too. I posted on here some time in 2013 or 2014 a prediction that if BTC were to be integrated with standard brokers, the price would immediately surge to $10K. This is what the rally has been all about.

I was under the impression that CME futures did not touch Bitcoin directly at any moment during the entire process. It's USD all the way. Am I wrong?

They are futures contracts which means eventually at some date on the contract, the exchange has to buy actual bitcoins and deliver them. In addition, the futures prices will move the bitcoin price by mere arbitrage.

Sorry but no. They are cash settled.  It is a fiat bet on bitcoin price in $.  Nothing more.

Other players will move BTC price by arb.  

This is correct. Cash settled.
could you explain the arb angle though?

Here is how I understand it:
Trade 1:
If the futures contract price is above the current BTC price (say future contract is $11000 vs actual BTC at $10000):
(1) Sell (short) the futures contract. $11000
(2) Buy actual BTC for a lower price than the futures contract settlement rate. $10000
(3) Wait until the futures contract settlement date to cash in the futures contract and sell the BTC you bought as part of this trade.

It's a risk free trade. No matter what happens, you have a $1000 USD profit minus trading fees and borrowing costs.
If BTC/USD drops to $9000, you will lose $1000 value on your BTC but your futures contract short will be worth $2000 so a net profit of $1000.
If BTC/USD stays at $10000, your BTC is worth what you bought it for but your futures contract short is worth $1000 so a net profit of $1000.
If BTC/USD goes to $11000 and the contract settlement rate is $11000, you make nothing on the contract but the BTC you bought for $10000 is worth $11000 so a net profit of $1000.
If BTC/USD goes up to $12000, your BTC will be worth $2000 more than you bought if for but you will lose $1000 on the futures contract short so a net profit of $1000.

Trade 2:
If the futures contract price is below the current BTC price (say future contract is $9000 vs actual BTC at $10000):
Reverse trade 1 above.

So, the prices should stay in sync assuming enough people arbitrage. Of course, traders know arbitrage will happen so prices should stay in sync even without it. The futures price will be an indicator traders will use.

The interesting part of either scenario is the limited supply of coins for sale and to borrow for shorting and the nearly unlimited supply of fiat in the world. Could get interesting.

[HairyMaclairy]

We are up 9.4% in 24 hours and I’m a party pooper !

[Rosewater Foundation]

We are up 9.4% in 24 hours and I’m a party pooper !

The world wants this. Just relax into it

[Icygreen]

Something that seems to have gone unnoticed around here is that the total crypto market cap blew right past a quarter trillion dollars and is now approaching $.3t.

We waited a long time for this. Is the adoption curve getting close to going vertical?

Also, the 24h volume is now greater than the total market cap of 1 year ago!  Yup, going vert!

[smartcomet]

Something that seems to have gone unnoticed around here is that the total crypto market cap blew right past a quarter trillion dollars and is now approaching $.3t.

We waited a long time for this. Is the adoption curve getting close to going vertical?

I noticed.  

I pointed out that if the trend continues we've seen recently and even if Bitcoin only makes up 40% of the total crypto market then in one year's time => 1 BTC = $35.000.

Though if the influx REALLY were to carry on with $10 billion per day we've seen last 5 days.
=>
$4 Trillion total market cap
say $1.6 Trillion BTC market cap.
In one year say 17.5 million BTC.

$1.600.000.000.000 / 17.500.000 = $91.428 per BTC.

@barrysilbert
UPDATED:
Bitcoin market cap ($150 billion) as a percent of gold in circulation ($7.5 trillion) = 2%

[HairyMaclairy]

If we hit gold market cap, hopefully most participants in this thread have enough for the rest of their lives.

[TheJuice]

If we hit gold market cap, hopefully most participants in this thread have enough for the rest of their lives.

It's hard to not take any profits!

[bitserve]

This weekend pump was a bit unexpected... and tomorrow is monday.

[JayJuanGee]

We are up 9.4% in 24 hours and I’m a party pooper !

Yes..  HairyMac...

You are fighting our UPPITY.

Take a chill pill and


CALM THE FUCK DOWN!!!


 

[True Myth]

Anyone else thinking as time zones wake up and check out the momentum that they pull a chunk of those sell orders at the 10k wall?  There is very little resistance after 10k on GDAX.  Next stop... moon?

[HairyMaclairy]

CANT YOU SEE IM TRYINF TO GET SOME WOEK DONEHERE?  HOW AM I SUPPOSED TONCONCENTRATE WITH YOU LOT MAKIG ALL THIS RACKET.

[TheJuice]

Anyone else thinking as time zones wake up and check out the momentum that they pull a chunk of those sell orders at the 10k wall?  There is very little resistance after 10k on GDAX.  Next stop... moon?

I actually think we will have a slight pull back tomorrow AM. There's going to be some profit taking. Suspect that won't last more than a few days and then we will shoot to 11-12k.

[HairyMaclairy]

Anyone else thinking as time zones wake up and check out the momentum that they pull a chunk of those sell orders at the 10k wall?  There is very little resistance after 10k on GDAX.  Next stop... moon?

I actually think we will have a slight pull back tomorrow AM. There's going to be some profit taking. Suspect that won't last more than a few days and then we will shoot to 11-12k.

Not this Monday.  There’s a wall of new users coming post Thanksgiving.

[TheJuice]

Anyone else thinking as time zones wake up and check out the momentum that they pull a chunk of those sell orders at the 10k wall?  There is very little resistance after 10k on GDAX.  Next stop... moon?

I actually think we will have a slight pull back tomorrow AM. There's going to be some profit taking. Suspect that won't last more than a few days and then we will shoot to 11-12k.

Not this Monday.  There’s a wall of new users coming post Thanksgiving.

True! I thought that might be why we had this weekend rally.

9750! this should be an interesting level to watch. Decent sell walls.

[True Myth]

Anyone else thinking as time zones wake up and check out the momentum that they pull a chunk of those sell orders at the 10k wall?  There is very little resistance after 10k on GDAX.  Next stop... moon?

I actually think we will have a slight pull back tomorrow AM. There's going to be some profit taking. Suspect that won't last more than a few days and then we will shoot to 11-12k.

Not this Monday.  There’s a wall of new users coming post Thanksgiving.

You guys are all forgetting that bitcoin is just manipulated by tether and bitfx. They are probably even beaming subconscious radio signals across the world to make people create coinbase accounts...  *sarcasm*

[TERA2]

The walls were gone LONG ago. I remember when Gox was breaking past $180 in Oct 2013, and someone said "Theres fucking nothing!" and they were pointing at the ask order book full of -only- 40k coins.

[windjc]

The walls were gone LONG ago. I remember when Gox was breaking past $180 in Oct 2013, and someone said "Theres fucking nothing!" and they were pointing at the ask order book full of -only- 40k coins.

TERA - you are like the original bear. I hope you didn't wait for those $99 coins and got back in before $9k