Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ShroomsKit]

This time I can certainly smell FEAR in the air...

Yeah, but just a whiff ... cant see the white's of their eyes yet  

Did you sell yet Shroomy ?

I mentioned in this thread at least 3 times i don't sell. Are you slow or just ignorant?
Do i need to put you on ignore now before your little obession with me turns into a big one? Let me know.

Edit: i'll put you on ignore before it gets scary.

[adamstgBit]

People are getting to understand what "deflationary currency" truly means right now.

lol!

must really suck if you bought your first coins really high, I'm sure most people are happy with their bitcoin holdings

if you bought at 266 on MtGox or even higher on other exchanges, HOLD IT! accumulate it, spend it, share it. that goes for everyone actually  

[MAbtc]

2900 coins to break 88!

[ChartBuddy]

[Rampion]

People are getting to understand what "deflationary currency" truly means right now.

Yeah, the USD deflating right now

[Rampion]

And there you have a smallish whale trying to reverse the trend... Failing... Poor thing...

[ehoffman]

People are getting to understand what "deflationary currency" truly means right now.

Yeah, the USD deflating right now

The only thing deflating right now is the Bitcoin bubble

[phlogistonq]

Surely Gox put large sums of money aside for times like these. It is not as if they were completely unaware the price might drop again one day. Also, they should be able to downscale their operations easily when needed.

[BitcoinAshley]

 

Feels nice being short on BTC and long on LTC and USD.

Feels real nice.

 

[nmersulypnem]

Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20
Legal = 200,000
ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000
Rent / Security = 120,000
Servers & Utilities = 100,000
= ~ 3.5 MM per year

150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you!

That 150k per employee figure is way off, but still its true that a low btc/usd exchange rate has an enormous impact on Gox's financials. Taking into account their history of honesty but profound amateurism, I also wonder how good they scaled during the "success", and how well are they going to handle this rough moments (because for them these are rough moments, that's for sure).

150K is the total employee cost - I should have made that clear.  Where I work, employees cost about 2x their salary in taxes, benefits, equipement, etc...

Think about it.  With their new infrastructure and crap volume, they could start losing 50K per day if the price keeps dropping.  Hell, they may already be bankrupt for all we know.  The fact that they only accept bank transfers in and not out, is definitely a red flag.

I have $100 that says they'll "unfortunately need to extend" their USD hiatus.

So according to your calculations, Gox didn't exist before March of this year (when we crossed through $65).   Imagine how much they must have been running in the red when bitcoin was $5 or$12!

Of course not, that would be stupid   Last year MtGox was a TINY operation.  They had a handful of employees, no DOS protection to speak of, no offline storage, small retail space, and only a couple of servers.  At the beginning of this year they have needed to seriously scale up.  A new AML team for verifications, many more servers, new developers, new DDOS services, new facilities, lawyers, accountants, etc...  There is no doubt that they made money in the first quarter of this year, but they have obviously needed to SPEND lots of money as well.

My point is that they very likely SPENT money in proportionate to the much higher income they were generating then.  An income they've been largely cut-off from for the last month.  But you know, costs don't go away as easily as profits.  They are still spending horrendous money.  If they haven't been keeping good accounting practices, it's entirely possible they're in financial trouble.  ...and you know what would be a obvious sign of financial problems?  Turning off fiat withdrawals.

[nmersulypnem]

Surely Gox put large sums of money aside for times like these. It is not as if they were completely unaware the price might drop again one day. Also, they should be able to downscale their operations easily when needed.

It's not so much the price decline that's killing them.  It's the volume decline.  They make all their money on commissions and at 20K BTC trades per day, compared to 120K/day, that is a pretty unexpected decline in revenue. 

Generally speaking, startups are not very good about keeping safety money in their accounts when they're under so much pressure to scale up.

[Frozenlock]

For those wondering where the common bitcoiner stands:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hfxt6/mt_gox_breaks_90_bottom_speculation_from_here/

hard to say. Someone earlier said with all the good news why is bitcoin still crashing? Maybe the early adopters are dumping all their coins again. Speculators are panic selling in response?

[Dalib]

we can really see very soon 82-88:

If you redraw that with the lower line touching May 15th and June 9th lows I think it would give clearer idea of where we are heading - your choice of lower boundary seems rather arbritrary

Appreciate the chart anyway   just saying

Yes, you are right.

I wanted to show slower long-term decline (red) and faster short term from the 20th June (orange)



When I get in touch max and lows it can also look like this after breaking the triangle.

But waves are not accurate, when we aren't at the break. Rather only possible direction.

[tarmi]

21:18:45   91.00000   700.7867

[Frozenlock]

21:18:45   91.00000   700.7867

 

[tarmi]

somebody just sold 700 btc to that wall @ 91.

[Richy_T]

hash rate continues to rise...

bitcoin will probably be able compute  the meaning of the universe soon .

Make sure your towel is handy.

[blackreplica]

One more big selloff and the streak of higher lows end. A terrible omen for the future

[Rampion]

hash rate continues to rise...

bitcoin will probably be able compute  the meaning of the universe soon .

Make sure your towel is handy.

Yeah, there are some plastic covers for the keyboard that do wonders to avoid damage and stickiness

[tarmi]

aaand its gone.

21:26:03   91.00000   411.6367