Its About Sharing
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:31:11 PM |
|
$88 here we come
I missed you so much
As our friend Blitz would say, "The Great Dollar Extraction" is on.
Are you getting 88 from the move up (before the bubble)? Or are you extrapolating somewhere? My number is 82 but as I've said, I don't know that I play a bounce there. This could get violent as large holders might want to sell their coins before others. After all, we are under 100, solidly now... Are you saying 82 today or soon? I only meant it could happen if we break 90 (solidly). I would say in the next few days it is VERY possible. I'm leaning towards probably. I won't take part in any bounces unless the signs say it isn't fake - and that is hard to know. The order book is very manipulated.
|
|
|
|
|
MAbtc
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:32:28 PM |
|
Hi, 80s! We missed you (on Gox)! ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Less than 4k coins to break 88.
|
|
|
|
nmersulypnem
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:33:27 PM |
|
I've been doing some calculations... and there is a BTC price point which, if sustained, will drive MtGox bankrupt, imo.
Granted, these are based on some pretty rough assumptions, so let me know if you see any flaws. Obviously, MtGox is a private company so they won't release their financials...
Yearly Costs: Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20 Legal = 200,000 ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000 Rent / Security = 120,000 Servers & Utilities = 100,000 = ~ 3.5 MM per year
Revenues: 25,000K BTC average volume post Dwolla / USD Hiatus Average of 0.5% commissions (most trades are algo or whale at 0.25% comm on each side) = ~300K per month
At these values, any BTC price below 65$ USD will not sustain them financially. Now, if you factor in any money seized in the Dwolla raid, and any money they may have prepaid, that pain point might be sooner. Of course, the reverse is possible as well, and they might have stockpiled money from the boom/bust. It's hard to say, but the point is that it is not negligible risk (hence the spread between them and other exchanges). MtGox scaled up considerably when the boom started earlier this year and likely invested a lot in servers, people, services - after the Dwolla and USD hiatus, they may no longer be making enough in commissions to keep paying their bills / employees.
Just food for thought. The BTC economy is putting a lot of faith in MtGox's ability to do proper/honest financial accounting / planning.
|
|
|
|
Frozenlock
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:34:14 PM |
|
The funny thing would be if he decided to stop being a bear and got hit hard by the recent downtrend.
|
|
|
|
QuestionAuthority
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1393
You lead and I'll watch you walk away.
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:35:02 PM |
|
$88 here we come
I missed you so much
As our friend Blitz would say, "The Great Dollar Extraction" is on.
Are you getting 88 from the move up (before the bubble)? Or are you extrapolating somewhere? My number is 82 but as I've said, I don't know that I play a bounce there. This could get violent as large holders might want to sell their coins before others. After all, we are under 100, solidly now... Are you saying 82 today or soon? I only meant it could happen if we break 90 (solidly). I would say in the next few days it is VERY possible. I'm leaning towards probably. I won't take part in any bounces unless the signs say it isn't fake - and that is hard to know. The order book is very manipulated. Oh ok. I guess your right. I can't see buying through to 82 happening today but I can see it happening this week.
|
|
|
|
Frozenlock
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:36:30 PM |
|
Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20 Legal = 200,000 ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000 Rent / Security = 120,000 Servers & Utilities = 100,000 = ~ 3.5 MM per year
150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you!
|
|
|
|
nmersulypnem
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:38:35 PM |
|
Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20 Legal = 200,000 ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000 Rent / Security = 120,000 Servers & Utilities = 100,000 = ~ 3.5 MM per year
150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you! This is total cost to the company - not just salary. I would guess average salary is ~78-120, but the total cost is closer to 150. Plug in your own numbers, though - it's still the same conclusion. The real number to be worried about is their low transaction volume.
|
|
|
|
Rampion
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:38:49 PM |
|
$88 here we come
I missed you so much
As our friend Blitz would say, "The Great Dollar Extraction" is on.
Are you getting 88 from the move up (before the bubble)? Or are you extrapolating somewhere? My number is 82 but as I've said, I don't know that I play a bounce there. This could get violent as large holders might want to sell their coins before others. After all, we are under 100, solidly now... $88 is a monthly low plus a crucial support level, as its part of the $50->$79->$88 "higher lows" trend.
|
|
|
|
|
N12
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:40:10 PM |
|
Probably the same thing as to the 300 Spartans. They died. ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif)
|
|
|
|
Rampion
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:40:43 PM |
|
Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20 Legal = 200,000 ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000 Rent / Security = 120,000 Servers & Utilities = 100,000 = ~ 3.5 MM per year
150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you! That 150k per employee figure is way off, but still its true that a low btc/usd exchange rate has an enormous impact on Gox's financials. Taking into account their history of honesty but profound amateurism, I also wonder how good they scaled during the "success", and how well are they going to handle this rough moments (because for them these are rough moments, that's for sure).
|
|
|
|
Voodah
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:44:53 PM |
|
Regarding the downward price movement, it is what I've been saying - Look at the size of the sells compared to buys. They are often much much larger. The chart tells you a little bit of that, but you need to be watching the tape to appreciate it.
I've been paying attention to this lately and noticing the exact same thing. Imho a big part of the buy side is fake. They are holding the price, all the while enabling sustained slow but regular dumps.
|
|
|
|
klee
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:46:30 PM |
|
This time I can certainly smell FEAR in the air...
|
|
|
|
nmersulypnem
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:46:51 PM |
|
Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20 Legal = 200,000 ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000 Rent / Security = 120,000 Servers & Utilities = 100,000 = ~ 3.5 MM per year
150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you! That 150k per employee figure is way off, but still its true that a low btc/usd exchange rate has an enormous impact on Gox's financials. Taking into account their history of honesty but profound amateurism, I also wonder how good they scaled during the "success", and how well are they going to handle this rough moments (because for them these are rough moments, that's for sure). 150K is the total employee cost - I should have made that clear. Where I work, employees cost about 2x their salary in taxes, benefits, equipement, etc... Think about it. With their new infrastructure and crap volume, they could start losing 50K per day if the price keeps dropping. Hell, they may already be bankrupt for all we know. The fact that they only accept bank transfers in and not out, is definitely a red flag. I have $100 that says they'll "unfortunately need to extend" their USD hiatus.
|
|
|
|
NamelessOne
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:48:33 PM |
|
All I have to say is "FINALLY!" been waiting a month and half, maybe longer for this. Felt like such a waste of time, people holding onto the hope of higher prices. I'm a long term bull but I think we have to go down before we can go back up again. The good old bitcoin way, hahaha.
|
|
|
|
klee
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:52:26 PM |
|
This time I can certainly smell FEAR in the air...
Yeah, but just a whiff ... cant see the white's of their eyes yet ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Did you sell yet Shroomy ? Not sure if you refer to me - I am in LTC and XRP for the last month...
|
|
|
|
N12
Donator
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:53:51 PM |
|
People are getting to understand what "deflationary currency" truly means right now. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
|
|
|
|
Dalib
Full Member
![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif) ![*](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/star.gif)
Offline
Activity: 462
Merit: 101
A Top Web 3 Gaming Layer2 Provider
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:57:36 PM |
|
we can really see very soon 82-88: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi42.tinypic.com%2F2hevpjl.jpg&t=665&c=D51MAYRADJiZzA)
|
|
|
|
tHash
|
![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 01, 2013, 06:59:26 PM |
|
Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20 Legal = 200,000 ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000 Rent / Security = 120,000 Servers & Utilities = 100,000 = ~ 3.5 MM per year
150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you! That 150k per employee figure is way off, but still its true that a low btc/usd exchange rate has an enormous impact on Gox's financials. Taking into account their history of honesty but profound amateurism, I also wonder how good they scaled during the "success", and how well are they going to handle this rough moments (because for them these are rough moments, that's for sure). 150K is the total employee cost - I should have made that clear. Where I work, employees cost about 2x their salary in taxes, benefits, equipement, etc... Think about it. With their new infrastructure and crap volume, they could start losing 50K per day if the price keeps dropping. Hell, they may already be bankrupt for all we know. The fact that they only accept bank transfers in and not out, is definitely a red flag. I have $100 that says they'll "unfortunately need to extend" their USD hiatus. So according to your calculations, Gox didn't exist before March of this year (when we crossed through $65). Imagine how much they must have been running in the red when bitcoin was $5 or$12!
|
|
|
|
|