Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

On a sidenote, I believe the last chances to go short will be presented today or tomorrow. Prices tend to correct after super bullish waves like this one.

Yeah of course, a correction could come at any time, so one thing would be to close longs along the way (which means selling) and another thing is going short (which means going on margin, and is a step further than some folks are willing to go).  Personally, I don't mind selling small amounts on the way up, but going short is playing a bit harder ball than is within my bailiwick. 

To be more specific, I could see breaking above $10k, by 10% or even 15% and then correcting below $10k,,, but who knows.. $10k could become a new floor, also, as others have postulated that possibility, which is not unreasonable, either.

Yeah, just like 9.2k has already seem to have become the new floor, at least for a while. You're right, I believe closing longs does fit better.

I'm just worried with that April 17 - 24/25 fractal. IF things end up happening in a similar fashion, we could see a spike in 10.6k and a 13% correction following May 6th and 7th (retesting 9.2k, most likely, and running up to the 11ks from there).

Or it could just keep spiking up like November - 17th of december 2017, who knows  

I don't have any issue with what you are saying, and it comes off as reasonable; however, I also have difficulties attempting to assign any kind of level of certainty to anything beyond one leg.  Or maybe I could reasonably assert something like, there is a decently sized possibility that prices will break above $10k in the coming day (perhaps 63%), and once prices break above $10k, if they do, then the odds are greater than 75% that they are going to appreciate at least 10% above $10k.. the odds of those two together seem to be .63 x .75, which is only 47.25%, so once you start to add up events, the probabilities begin to trickle way below 50%, and maybe I am even assigning too high of percentages to the preceding events, so I start to worry that I am speculating way too much if I try to string along too many events at once - even if I have a vision in my head, I become reluctant to say my vision out loud because there are too many contingencies that end up lowering the probability of that outcome by a considerable amount, even though I view my scenario as the most likely of scenarios, it begins to trickle down to the 1/3 or below territory, so it becomes more likely that I am wrong, even if I am picking the most likely of the then available options.  I hope that makes sense.

[bitserve]

There was a 10 day floor at 8600. I dont see a floor of 9000 on the chart.

By the way the bid depth here on all exchanges in fiat is still the same, or lower, than it was in the 6000s. If this was truly going to rally to the next ATH and such, the bid depth would be building much bigger. So this is a temporal rally.

I don't think anyone is expecting this "rally" to simply go straight and past previous ATH in no time. It will eventually do but there should be corrections on the way up.

One thing at a time.... Let's just break $10K first and wait for the positive headlines in MSM again.

The bid depth usually increases crazily when FOMO kicks in (and the price is HIGH), not before.

[mike4001]

Btw. whats going on with Bitcoin Cash ??

0,172 BTC now and rising.

I know, I know ... this is no Altcoin section ;-)

[TERA2]

Altcoiners have gone full retard. I still dont underserstand why ETH is above $50. But it seems like theres this tide of $X00B dollars of speculative money that is going in and out of crypto to play the crashes and rebounds and this speculative money is going into all the major coins almost indiscriminately like a vegas casino floor so the smaller cap coins are more affected.

[Ibian]

Btw. whats going on with Bitcoin Cash ??

0,172 BTC now and rising.

I know, I know ... this is no Altcoin section ;-)

What's going on is that I sold at 3k. It's still amazing to me that we got money for basically free like that.

[mike4001]

And down again.

The wall to 10k is too strong atm.

[KyleSpades]

On a sidenote, I believe the last chances to go short will be presented today or tomorrow. Prices tend to correct after super bullish waves like this one.

Yeah of course, a correction could come at any time, so one thing would be to close longs along the way (which means selling) and another thing is going short (which means going on margin, and is a step further than some folks are willing to go).  Personally, I don't mind selling small amounts on the way up, but going short is playing a bit harder ball than is within my bailiwick. 

To be more specific, I could see breaking above $10k, by 10% or even 15% and then correcting below $10k,,, but who knows.. $10k could become a new floor, also, as others have postulated that possibility, which is not unreasonable, either.

Yeah, just like 9.2k has already seem to have become the new floor, at least for a while. You're right, I believe closing longs does fit better.

I'm just worried with that April 17 - 24/25 fractal. IF things end up happening in a similar fashion, we could see a spike in 10.6k and a 13% correction following May 6th and 7th (retesting 9.2k, most likely, and running up to the 11ks from there).

Or it could just keep spiking up like November - 17th of december 2017, who knows  

I don't have any issue with what you are saying, and it comes off as reasonable; however, I also have difficulties attempting to assign any kind of level of certainty to anything beyond one leg.  Or maybe I could reasonably assert something like, there is a decently sized possibility that prices will break above $10k in the coming day (perhaps 63%), and once prices break above $10k, if they do, then the odds are greater than 75% that they are going to appreciate at least 10% above $10k.. the odds of those two together seem to be .63 x .75, which is only 47.25%, so once you start to add up events, the probabilities begin to trickle way below 50%, and maybe I am even assigning too high of percentages to the preceding events, so I start to worry that I am speculating way too much if I try to string along too many events at once - even if I have a vision in my head, I become reluctant to say my vision out loud because there are too many contingencies that end up lowering the probability of that outcome by a considerable amount, even though I view my scenario as the most likely of scenarios, it begins to trickle down to the 1/3 or below territory, so it becomes more likely that I am wrong, even if I am picking the most likely of the then available options.  I hope that makes sense.

Makes a lot of sense, mate. I'd say it's a solid and grounded mindset to approach trading nevertheless.

[KyleSpades]

And down again.

The wall to 10k is too strong atm.

And it was 1.4k BTC a few moments ago...

There's a 111 sell order, it's insane

[coinlocket$]

TRUE STORY

[Elwar]

10000.gif^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H

[LastJedi]

It did break $10,000 twice. One early morning at 2 am and then at 7 am here. First one was stronger at $10,020. Then the last one at $10,011.
I am going by my sell orders on binance.

It is so close hovering at $9,955 since then.

Soooo very close!

[bitcoinPsycho]

im rounding up

[Torque]

And that slob wonders why he had a massive heart attack recently. Seriously.

Also he's a shit director that gets WAY more credit than he deserves.

[realr0ach]

We are simply sidestepping the FED. Let them have their imaginary money. We don't need to tear it down. We just need to continue to advocate this alternative money.

A designed to centralize, non-fungible, permissioned ledger is not even close to money.  It is the opposite of money - a tracking and control grid, not something to facilitate a free market or any type of freedom in general.  The only type of system bitcoin can facilitate is a police state where every transaction is monitored, blacklists are deployed, and the state is empowered even more so than now.  If you support shitcoins over physical metals, you support empowering the state, period.

Imaginary tokens are not a store of value, nor are they a real commodity, which is required to be a commodity currency, being a real commodity in the first place, nor do they have any fundamentals or characteristics of money in comparison to physical silver or gold.  You are a liar who is shilling for a pump and dump you bought into for self interest is the only real truth.  Some people call this "cognitive dissonance", which is the polite way of saying someone is full of shit.

[Elwar]

And that slob wonders why he had a massive heart attack recently. Seriously.

Also he's a shit director that gets WAY more credit than he deserves.

But...long fast dialogues about the state of humanity right now...

and Star Wars references...

[realr0ach]

I just share my predictions with a strong bull energy. We need to spread the bull energy to make the bitcoin up more strong.

^This guy's quote shows the true nature of shitcoins.  Value is not derived from fundamentals because designed to centralize, non-fungible, imaginary tokens have no fundamentals, but from conmen trying to trick other people into using them.  A real commodity currency like silver does not require conmen trying to trick people into buying them to prevent the value from collapsing to zero.  A real commodity already has value without being used as money, then people adopt it for monetary usage afterwards.  

If there's no underlying value as a commodity without being utilized as money, it's basically just a flat out scam where any type of imaginary 'widgets' can be swapped in by nefarious actors to replace them and defraud people - a lack of Schelling point in other words.  This phenomenon is evident in shitcoins where you started out with only bitcoin and then millions of so-called "altcoins" popped up.  None of them are real or valid commodities, all are based on artificial scarcity, and there is no valid Schelling point for anyone to use one over the other when all are just based on arbitrary bullshit and magic numbers people conjured up.

The word "altcoin" was put out by the bitcoin powers that be as a propaganda word to try and combat the fact bitcoin is a fake commodity with no valid Schelling point.  They were trying to paper over and hide problems like this, pretending like people are committing some type of sin by not buying into their pyramid scheme and creating your own pyramid scheme instead.  Things like physical silver do not have this problem because random idiots in their basement can't create a new silver.  It requires the power of the gods themselves -  two neutron stars colliding - to do that.

[afbitcoins]

We are simply sidestepping the FED. Let them have their imaginary money. We don't need to tear it down. We just need to continue to advocate this alternative money.

A designed to centralize, non-fungible, permissioned ledger is not even close to money.  It is the opposite of money - a tracking and control grid, not something to facilitate a free market or any type of freedom in general.  The only type of system bitcoin can facilitate is a police state where every transaction is monitored, blacklists are deployed, and the state is empowered even more so than now.  If you support shitcoins over physical metals, you support empowering the state, period.

Imaginary tokens are not a store of value, nor are they a real commodity, which is required to be a commodity currency, being a real commodity in the first place, nor do they have any fundamentals or characteristics of money in comparison to physical silver or gold.  You are a liar who is shilling for a pump and dump you bought into for self interest is the only real truth.  Some people call this "cognitive dissonance", which is the polite way of saying someone is full of shit.

If nothing else it IS creating awareness that money can be something other than fiat govt/bank issued debt! Genie is out the bottle. Maybe one day you'll be right and it will lead to physical silver bullion. Or maybe crypto will manage to do the job. It is Open Source. ie free to modify. free to improve. for the people. If bankers where behind it I don't think they would like the fact they don't have a QE print button.

[RejectedBanana]

The psychological barrier at 10k/200EMA is causing the popular alt ratios to stretch...

When that resistance is broken, will they rebound and propel Bitcoin even higher?

HODL on to your feathers!

[coinlocket$]

What do you think about the bicoin cash fork? Will bitcoin increase over 10k in value for the potential flipping?

[jbreher]

Gantz.

Gantts: