Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ibian]

Can we go up now like crossing $20k and more

I'm still kicking myself for not selling off the rest of the coin I have loaded on the exchange when it last bounced off $11,500.

Oh well.

That's my mental number for dumping my last batch.

Will re-evaluate the landscape in mid 2021.

Holding out for 1 BTC/Porsche-911-GT3 parity around then...

By 2020 the price will be at least 40k.

[criptix]

I strongly agree with what I think is your more general point that A) commodity money is important B) cryptocurrency is not a replacement or substitute for it

Mind explaining why you think commodity money will stay important? Genuinely interested.

Sure. Basically I don't think bitcoin makes a very good reserve asset. It isn't nearly as well suited for a base of the liquidity pyramid as gold is.



Part of what makes it poorly suited as a reserve asset is that technology improves over time. There is a risk that the leading cryptocurrency will always be overturned by new and better technology. Which is a good thing, just not a good thing if you want the properties of a stable long term bottom of the liquidity pyramid reserve asset. Interestingly there is an implication here that if bitcoin can win against all of the other alts and come to soundly dominate this sector it will more closely approximate the utility of gold as a reserve asset. But if it get's overtaken by ethereum or bcrap that could open pandoras box and doubly prove my point.

There is also an existential threat posed to bitcoin from forks that you wouldn't want in a reserve asset.

There is a technological threat, what if the network gets owned? What if it is built on assumptions that turn out to be wrong? It's well safe enough for speculation and payments and building businesses ontop of, but there is enough of a risk in this regard to hamper its utility as an ultra safe long term reserve asset.

TLDR; if you were to insert bitcoin into the pyramid it would fall in-between gold and circulating money, not next to gold, and certainly not beneath it.

You're right.

Just thinking out loud here. If you look at bitcoin in isolation it is limited in quantity. Yes. But if you look at crypto in isolation it is inflating like crazy, coins doubling every fork and brand new ones left right and centre with any arbitrary number of tokens. And some of those are inflationary. I guess just more reasons gold deserves to be in that spot at the base of the pyramid.

There are several mineable asteroids near us that have more gold then planet earth   

[markj113]

There are several mineable asteroids near us that have more gold then planet earth   

There is also gold in the earths core, doesnt mean its accessible or if it is cost effective to do so.

[criptix]

There are several mineable asteroids near us that have more gold then planet earth  

There is also gold in the earths core, doesnt mean its accessible or if it is cost effective to do so.

Oh, i think digging up the core of planet earth would be genius level for sure.

https://www.outerplaces.com/science/item/17778-700-quintillion-dollar-asteroid-space-mining-gold-rush-mars-jupiter


The only thing which would stop such an endavor would be what people call "economic scarcity".

[markj113]

Most asteroids scoped for mining also do not contain gold :

Asteroid    Est. Value (US$)    Est. Profit (US$)    Δv (km/s)    Composition
Ryugu    95 billion    35 billion    4.663    Nickel, iron, cobalt, water, nitrogen, hydrogen, ammonia
1989 ML    14 billion    4 billion    4.888    Nickel, iron, cobalt
Nereus    5 billion    1 billion    4.986    Nickel, iron, cobalt
Didymos    84 billion    22 billion    5.162    Nickel, iron, cobalt
2011 UW158    8 billion    2 billion    5.187    Platinum, nickel, iron, cobalt
Anteros    5570 billion    1250 billion    5.439    Magnesium silicate, aluminum, iron silicate
2001 CC21    147 billion    30 billion    5.636    Magnesium silicate, aluminum, iron silicate
1992 TC    84 billion    17 billion    5.647    Nickel, iron, cobalt
2001 SG10    4 billion    0.6 billion    5.880    Nickel, iron, cobalt
2002 DO3    0.3 billion    0.06 billion    5.894    Nickel, iron, cobalt

Moon rock currently sells at over $50k a gram, you think it would be easier to land there and grab some rock than landings a small asteroid hurtling around.

[criptix]

Most asteroids scoped for mining also do not contain gold :

Asteroid    Est. Value (US$)    Est. Profit (US$)    Δv (km/s)    Composition
Ryugu    95 billion    35 billion    4.663    Nickel, iron, cobalt, water, nitrogen, hydrogen, ammonia
1989 ML    14 billion    4 billion    4.888    Nickel, iron, cobalt
Nereus    5 billion    1 billion    4.986    Nickel, iron, cobalt
Didymos    84 billion    22 billion    5.162    Nickel, iron, cobalt
2011 UW158    8 billion    2 billion    5.187    Platinum, nickel, iron, cobalt
Anteros    5570 billion    1250 billion    5.439    Magnesium silicate, aluminum, iron silicate
2001 CC21    147 billion    30 billion    5.636    Magnesium silicate, aluminum, iron silicate
1992 TC    84 billion    17 billion    5.647    Nickel, iron, cobalt
2001 SG10    4 billion    0.6 billion    5.880    Nickel, iron, cobalt
2002 DO3    0.3 billion    0.06 billion    5.894    Nickel, iron, cobalt

Please read my link and google Psyche 16.

That list on wikipedia is not what i mean.

[bluebits]

$6144 two part betting game.

A) When will $6144 be broken on the way down.

B) When will $6144 be broken back on the way up.

June 10th going down.

30% bounce off of 5,x00 a few weeks later to break it on the way up.


Working backwards from the 'ceiling' is the best way to find the low. Ceiling is the price it can hit without existing in a fresh bullrun (3 years away at best). Where do people put the current ceilings?

20 - ultimate level, out of the question currently
17 - last chance sell stop after the crash, hard to see it going here and stopping
12 - mythical 'resistance' for a 13 style double top, if it couldn't hit it on 2 glades it can't hit it
10 - glade 2.0 top
08 - likely where we are now, this will get shorted and dumped hard here

8k top means it needs to visit a support level well below it that people still believe strongly in, natural guess is the 5,500 level from the wonderous bcash night of magic.

[markj113]

Please read my link and google Psyche 16.

That list on wikipedia is not what i mean.

I have no doubt it will happen at some point in the future, I just dont see it as a significant investment risk during my or my daughters lifetime.

Low earth orbit space tourism hasnt even kicked off yet and thats got to be a lot easier than mining in space.

[realr0ach]

A small possibility buy It may be that people finally realized bitcoin is nothing more than a pump&dump get rich quick ponzi scheme maybe?

Perestroika is coming, goyim.

[criptix]

Please read my link and google Psyche 16.

That list on wikipedia is not what i mean.

I have no doubt it will happen at some point in the future, I just dont see it as a significant investment risk during my or my daughters lifetime.

Low earth space tourism hasnt even kicked off yet and thats got to be a lot easier than mining in space.

That i totaly agree with you, even optimistic estimates say a time duration of probaly 50 years until space mining will really start.


BUT kurzweil and de grey said we just need to live until 2050 with a healthy body and then we can easily buy 100 more years of lifetime.  

[realr0ach]

That i totaly agree with you, even optimistic estimates say a time duration of probaly 50 years until space mining will really start.

BUT kurzweil and de grey said we just need to live until 2050 with a healthy body and then we can easily buy 100 more years of lifetime.  

Jesus christ this forum is filled to the brim with bugmen and Vitalik Buterin-style, wannabe authoritarian technocrats that have no real world experience with anything.  There's not gonna be jack shit for mining silver or gold in space unless the price of gold was orders of magnitude higher than it is now.  Okay, so gold goes to $10k and silver goes to $300-500.  What happens then?  We STILL completely ignore space mining and just mine the shit on the ocean floor because it would still be vastly cheaper than going to space to get it.

Oh, and who exactly are you going to PAY to risk their life going into space, one of the most dangerous places around in order to get this shit?  NOBODY.  That's who.  NOBODY.  I mean, look at the Zerohedge story about truck driving yesterday.  You can't even find people to pay $80-100k to drive Hazmat trucks on the planet earth, yet you're somehow going to lure a bunch of Mexicans to travel into space for slave wages to mine gold and silver? HAHAHAHA.  

Even if the entire fiat financial system completely implodes and metals go to their high area target prices of $10-20k gold and $600-$1000 silver, gold will still not be viable to mine in space and silver even LESS viable due to needing to sort through and transport more tonnage of materials to pull silver out.  You would likely not ever be mining silver in space unless you were also mining things like copper and nickel in space too - a full fledged space civilization from science fiction novels that doesn't even live on earth in other words.

Peak oil (which is just mislabeled thermodynamic collapse of oil extraction) is real also.  So space mining for precious metals - if it could even be done 50-100 years in the future- would likely require the entire transportation, mining, and refining process to all be done with nuclear energy.  Since thermodynamic collapse of oil extraction is real, we would NEVER be going to space to search for precious metals as a first target.  An energy source would always be the first target.

[jonoiv]

[criptix]

That i totaly agree with you, even optimistic estimates say a time duration of probaly 50 years until space mining will really start.

BUT kurzweil and de grey said we just need to live until 2050 with a healthy body and then we can easily buy 100 more years of lifetime.  

Jesus christ this forum is filled to the brim with bugmen and Vitalik Buterin-style, wannabe authoritarian technocrats that have no real world experience with anything.  There's not gonna be jack shit for mining silver or gold in space unless the price of gold was orders of magnitude higher than it is now.  Okay, so gold goes to $10k and silver goes to $333.  What happens then?  We STILL completely ignore space mining and just mine the shit on the ocean floor because it would still be vastly cheaper than going to space to get it.

Oh, and who exactly are you going to PAY to risk their life going into space, one of the most dangerous places around in order to get this shit?  NOBODY.  That's who.  NOBODY.  I mean, look at the Zerohedge story about truck driving yesterday.  You can't even find people to pay $80-100k to drive Hazmat trucks on the planet earth, yet you're somehow going to lure a bunch of Mexicans to travel into space for slave wages to mine gold and silver? HAHAHAHA.

Calm down roach, i didnt say that it's gonna happen tommorow!  


But space mining is real and inevitable because planet earth has only finite resources - and when we arrive at the point where recycling and mining on our planet doesnt work anymore we will be forced to go to space.


Btw how about paying sending jews and blacks to mine in space instead of gassing them?  

[Syke]

But space mining is real and inevitable because planet earth has only finite resources

Our needs are finite also.

[arklan]

But space mining is real and inevitable because planet earth has only finite resources

Our needs are finite also.

if only we acted like that...

[criptix]

But space mining is real and inevitable because planet earth has only finite resources

Our needs are finite also.

Not if someone is gonna discover the cure for (cell)death!

[Torque]

If you go to a pro Nike forum and talk shit about Nike, the mods will eventually ban you.

If you go to a pro Gaming forum and talk enough shit about video games, the mods will eventually ban you.

If you go to a pro Camping forum and talk enough shit about people who camp, the mods will eventually ban you.

If you go to a pro Gun forum and talk enough shit about people who buy and use guns, the mods will eventually ban you.

If you go to a pro Precious Metals forum and talk enough shit about Gold and Silver, the mods will eventually ban you.

If you go to a pro BMW forum and talk enough shit about BMWs, the mods will eventually ban you.

Hell if you go to ANY pro-Subject forum and talk enough shit about said *subject*, the mods will eventually ban you.

-- but --

Apparently you can come to a pro-Bitcoin forum (Bitcointalk.org) and talk shit about Bitcoin. For years and years and years. Not only will the mods NOT ban you, they'll allow you to continue doing it. Because 'muh free speech. And allow you to multiply sock puppet Troll accounts by the 1000s. Eventually running off all the pro-Bitcoin people, leaving behind nothing but Trolls and salty Bitcoin haters that outnumber everyone else by 1000:1.

     

[Torque]

Roger Ver, is this one of your sock puppet accounts? Sure seems like it.

Haha.

"There you go again"
- R Raygun

Most would know when to stop digging.

Can you just stfu? You're part of the problem, troll.

[realr0ach]

If you go to a pro BMW forum and talk enough shit about BMWs, the mods will eventually ban you.

Apparently you can come to a pro-Bitcoin forum (Bitcointalk.org) and talk shit about Bitcoin. For years and years. Not only will the mods NOT ban you, they'll allow you to continue doing it. Because 'muh free speech. And multiply by the 1000s. Eventually running off all the pro-Bitcoin people, leaving behind nothing but Trolls that outnumber everyone else by 1000:1.

     

Torque wants to censor all information that portrays shitcoins in a bad light, even if the information is 100% factually correct.  If you go to a BMW forum and discuss 100% factually correct information about why the car is a death trap, the only way you're getting banned is if the forum was a bogus front shilling for the BMW corporation.  Silver and gold are the base of Exter's pyramid for the last 5-10 thousand years.  If you believe your fly by night, completely centralized scamcoin garbage can compete with that, it has to be able to stand up to comparisons to the reigning competition.

Transaction validators in shitcoins are always designed to centralize, while being non-fungible, with built-in middlemen, and don't remove counterparty risk.  This makes them nothing but permissioned ledgers in practice with zero fundamentals that cannot compete with silver and gold in any possible way.  THIS is why you want to censor all factual comparisons between the two.  Shitcoins cannot stand up to any type of scrutiny when compared to silver and gold.

There are only two camps of people, those that believe in sound, physical money that actually exists in the real world like silver and gold, and those that believe in completely arbitrary, imaginary, valueless tokens like US dollars, bitcoins, and Chuck E Cheese tokens.

[jbreher]

Roger Ver, is this one of your sock puppet accounts? Sure seems like it.

Haha.

"There you go again"
- R Raygun

Most would know when to stop digging.

Can you just stfu?

I can.

But I won't.

Deal with it.

You're part of the problem, troll.

What problem is that, embarrassingly rude person?