Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ShroomsKit]

Why do people dump now? How do they think? "Well the price is going up, lets quickly dump before i make more money by putting up a sell order around 900"?

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[virtualfaqs]

Anyone else biting their fingers and hodling?  

Why do people dump now? How do they think? "Well the price is going up, lets quickly dump before i make more money by putting up a sell order around 900"?

They're dumping because 900 is an extremely quick recovery time historically. What's funny is they're not putting up the sum asks meaning they're not sure.

[adamstgBit]

anyway i think its likely BTC LTC FTC XPM QRK  PPC AND DOGE  will all hold its value and often rally against the dollar.

their have been 1000's of shitcoin and these ones stand out

All those coins have no utility features that Bitcoin doesn't have. Different hashing algorithms and encryption are cool, but if all those coin's main purpose is to be a currency, Bitcoin already runs that street.

If you want innovative coins, you need to look at BTC (of course), MSC, NXT, eMunie. I think those 3 have the most promise, even if MSC and NXT are labeled as "premined"

bitcoin is the best there is no question about that

all i'm saying is the  crypto is crypto.

whats so great and innovative about these other coins and why should i care.

[spooderman]

Tomorrow there will be a weekend low and that will be the best time to buy. Next week will test new levels of resistance.

Brave words...I'll make a note.

Please do. I haven't been wrong about a specific call I've posted on here yet.

Oh, come now. No one takes that condescending bullshit seriously.

I recall one post specifically because it was in response to me, when price was just over $200 in October.

I would bet we don't end the year more than $20 up or down from where we are today.

Then I thought, let's have a look.

I do not see a lot of investment coming in during the holidays. Certainly not to push us up another $55-60 in the next 2 months. Especially since there are still some people who would just be happy to break even from the April crash, even more so during the holidays.

I don't think we will see ATHs until 2014.

It will be institutional investors that eventually get us to $1000+.  Mom and pop can get us to new highs, but the BTC markets need billions of new capital investments into its coffers to get to 4 digits and beyond.

[...]

I still think this is probably at least over a year away.

I would not expect us to break above 266 before mid December or into the new year. If we do, we are probably headed for another sizeable dip.

There really is no resistance for a loooong time after $1000. $1500 maybe, but $2000 really is the next resistance after that. And 10000 cyn which is about $1630. Have some serious resistance there.

So all of you hoping for $400-$500 coins better prey some big hands come in and bust resistance downward. Otherwise, $600 is probably the best you will see in this rally.

3 days before the move to capitulation:

After studying these markets daily, I believe I have a pretty good pulse on where things are going. Here are my 2 cents currently.

There is a groundswell of buying pressure sitting off to the sidelines and its growing. Its growing for 2 reasons. First, most traders are not 100% bitcoin at the moment. Just look on this mostly bullish forum. Most of us are partly fiat right now. We have $$$ sitting on the sidelines. Second,
there is a lot of new money coming into the exchanges that are not buying right away. That is why the bid sum is increasing. People want to invest, but do not necessarily want to invest if the price is going to go lower.

So every possible mid term scenario (minus a catastrophic one, which always exists) has one final result - an strong upswing in which the money is forced to come back into the market. This will eventually cause another large rally. To where, I do not know. But it is coming.

I think there are 3 near/mid term scenarios. I will list them most unlikely to most likely.

A.  Incredibly bullish news spurns the market upward suddenly forcing the money on the sidelines back in causing a new huge rally.  

B. The market consolidates where it is (around $900) for 1-4/5 weeks. This would be the most bullish scenario and would be similar to the consolidation around $120-$130 a few months ago.

C. The market ebbs sideways and downward over the holidays as the holiday season wins the news cycles and people hold off on investing and sending more funds to markets.  In this scenario, we DO NOT reach another low past the $600ish already established. This would be very similar to the April rally where people expected it to test the low of $50s but it only got to $66, because everyone wanted to buy low.

I think C is most likely given the holidays. We will trend sideways to down, we will start a slow upswing sometime before $600. Somewhere from Dec. 30th to Jan. 31st that upswing will gain momentum and by sometime in February we will be in full fledge rally mode again. I also think this scenario could happen before February as well.

The best you can hope for is a sideways to downward movement lasting 2-6 weeks, but never going below $600. Thats best case scenario for you.

Just like I said, we may go lower but we are not going lower than 600 because everyone is watching there.

And the underlining mood of this market is bullish.  Eventually we are going to hit a price where the money on the sideline says this is low enough. Then after the holidays when more institutional money comes in away we will go.

Or alternately we will go up anytime because honey badger don't give a SHIT.

If you see a downtrend that gets heavy resistance before $600 you should buy.

There is way too muchl money sitting on the sidelines for the market to fall far. And when it comes back in he market will have established its floor.

Most people are looking at 600 the same way they did 50. So on a down trend I would expect the buying to start between $620-$700.

We made a higher low on 12-20 and have not revisited it. You said:

Look. I hear you. I actually agree with most of what you said. However, as much as it gets blasted TA is very effective in calling patterns. And technically speaking we have at least 1 more leg down. I might not make new lows, but still, it would be shocking if it did not happen.

What are your thoughts regarding this now:

I think we hang out in a $20-$40 range for a bit before testing the ATHs early next year, but that doesn't mean even 2014 want see some days (or hours) under 150.

It seems your views have changed. Were you right then, or right now?

We are already seeing an issue with people not wanting to invest at $200. I think the psychological challenges of the cost of a single bitcoin for a potential new investor will dampen the market to a degree. Unless we see the exchanges moving to a lower denomination than BTC, I think our growth from here on out will not be exponential. I could see us at $500-$1000 next year best case scenario. However, as the price rises, the growth curve will be dampened, no doubt.

this is amazing. someone needs to make a thread comprised entirely of wrong predictions and faulty assertions. some people are shameless and never learn.

[arepo]

Why do people dump now? How do they think? "Well the price is going up, lets quickly dump before i make more money by putting up a sell order around 900"?

the people who are dumping now are the ones who bought coins before we took off and are taking profits (out of the pockets of those who bought coins during the rally itself).

[adamstgBit]

feels like a fast smooth ride



hop onboard the Bitcoin train! today

[sir faps]

Tomorrow there will be a weekend low and that will be the best time to buy. Next week will test new levels of resistance.

Brave words...I'll make a note.

Please do. I haven't been wrong about a specific call I've posted on here yet.

Oh, come now. No one takes that condescending bullshit seriously.

I recall one post specifically because it was in response to me, when price was just over $200 in October.

I would bet we don't end the year more than $20 up or down from where we are today.

Then I thought, let's have a look.

I do not see a lot of investment coming in during the holidays. Certainly not to push us up another $55-60 in the next 2 months. Especially since there are still some people who would just be happy to break even from the April crash, even more so during the holidays.

I don't think we will see ATHs until 2014.

It will be institutional investors that eventually get us to $1000+.  Mom and pop can get us to new highs, but the BTC markets need billions of new capital investments into its coffers to get to 4 digits and beyond.

[...]

I still think this is probably at least over a year away.

I would not expect us to break above 266 before mid December or into the new year. If we do, we are probably headed for another sizeable dip.

There really is no resistance for a loooong time after $1000. $1500 maybe, but $2000 really is the next resistance after that. And 10000 cyn which is about $1630. Have some serious resistance there.

So all of you hoping for $400-$500 coins better prey some big hands come in and bust resistance downward. Otherwise, $600 is probably the best you will see in this rally.

3 days before the move to capitulation:

After studying these markets daily, I believe I have a pretty good pulse on where things are going. Here are my 2 cents currently.

There is a groundswell of buying pressure sitting off to the sidelines and its growing. Its growing for 2 reasons. First, most traders are not 100% bitcoin at the moment. Just look on this mostly bullish forum. Most of us are partly fiat right now. We have $$$ sitting on the sidelines. Second,
there is a lot of new money coming into the exchanges that are not buying right away. That is why the bid sum is increasing. People want to invest, but do not necessarily want to invest if the price is going to go lower.

So every possible mid term scenario (minus a catastrophic one, which always exists) has one final result - an strong upswing in which the money is forced to come back into the market. This will eventually cause another large rally. To where, I do not know. But it is coming.

I think there are 3 near/mid term scenarios. I will list them most unlikely to most likely.

A.  Incredibly bullish news spurns the market upward suddenly forcing the money on the sidelines back in causing a new huge rally. 

B. The market consolidates where it is (around $900) for 1-4/5 weeks. This would be the most bullish scenario and would be similar to the consolidation around $120-$130 a few months ago.

C. The market ebbs sideways and downward over the holidays as the holiday season wins the news cycles and people hold off on investing and sending more funds to markets.  In this scenario, we DO NOT reach another low past the $600ish already established. This would be very similar to the April rally where people expected it to test the low of $50s but it only got to $66, because everyone wanted to buy low.

I think C is most likely given the holidays. We will trend sideways to down, we will start a slow upswing sometime before $600. Somewhere from Dec. 30th to Jan. 31st that upswing will gain momentum and by sometime in February we will be in full fledge rally mode again. I also think this scenario could happen before February as well.

The best you can hope for is a sideways to downward movement lasting 2-6 weeks, but never going below $600. Thats best case scenario for you.

Just like I said, we may go lower but we are not going lower than 600 because everyone is watching there.

And the underlining mood of this market is bullish.  Eventually we are going to hit a price where the money on the sideline says this is low enough. Then after the holidays when more institutional money comes in away we will go.

Or alternately we will go up anytime because honey badger don't give a SHIT.

If you see a downtrend that gets heavy resistance before $600 you should buy.

There is way too muchl money sitting on the sidelines for the market to fall far. And when it comes back in he market will have established its floor.

Most people are looking at 600 the same way they did 50. So on a down trend I would expect the buying to start between $620-$700.

We made a higher low on 12-20 and have not revisited it. You said:

Look. I hear you. I actually agree with most of what you said. However, as much as it gets blasted TA is very effective in calling patterns. And technically speaking we have at least 1 more leg down. I might not make new lows, but still, it would be shocking if it did not happen.

What are your thoughts regarding this now:

I think we hang out in a $20-$40 range for a bit before testing the ATHs early next year, but that doesn't mean even 2014 want see some days (or hours) under 150.

It seems your views have changed. Were you right then, or right now?

We are already seeing an issue with people not wanting to invest at $200. I think the psychological challenges of the cost of a single bitcoin for a potential new investor will dampen the market to a degree. Unless we see the exchanges moving to a lower denomination than BTC, I think our growth from here on out will not be exponential. I could see us at $500-$1000 next year best case scenario. However, as the price rises, the growth curve will be dampened, no doubt.

Hahaha this is awesome

[virtualfaqs]

Whoever bought Mtgox 40 BTC, you got balls man (or daring lady).  

[fr33d0miz3r]

Whoever bought Mtgox 40 BTC

[ChartBuddy]

[MAbtc]

this is amazing. someone needs to make a thread comprised entirely of wrong predictions and faulty assertions. some people are shameless and never learn.

Someone did make a thread like that a few months ago. I forget who... it seemed to have been started as a personal vendetta against Rampion, though. That I remember.

I welcome any and all analysis. I take everything with a grain of salt. I don't like to call anyone out on bad calls. I've made my share. But some people just get on my nerves....

[Voodah]

I welcome any and all analysis. I take everything with a grain of salt. I don't like to call anyone out on bad calls. I've made my share. But some people just get on my nerves....

+1

[adamstgBit]

anyway i think its likely BTC LTC FTC XPM QRK  PPC AND DOGE  will all hold its value and often rally against the dollar.

their have been 1000's of shitcoin and these ones stand out

All those coins have no utility features that Bitcoin doesn't have. Different hashing algorithms and encryption are cool, but if all those coin's main purpose is to be a currency, Bitcoin already runs that street.

If you want innovative coins, you need to look at BTC (of course), MSC, NXT, eMunie. I think those 3 have the most promise, even if MSC and NXT are labeled as "premined"

bitcoin is the best there is no question about that

all i'm saying is the  crypto is crypto.

whats so great and innovative about these other coins and why should i care.

and this is precisely why,it just doesn't matter how much 'better' some alt claims to be, Bitcoin is and always will be the runaway winner

everyone should just sell their alts and HODL BTC!!!

lol can you imagine how much the price would go up if everyone did that  

[adamstgBit]

anyway i think its likely BTC LTC FTC XPM QRK  PPC AND DOGE  will all hold its value and often rally against the dollar.

their have been 1000's of shitcoin and these ones stand out

All those coins have no utility features that Bitcoin doesn't have. Different hashing algorithms and encryption are cool, but if all those coin's main purpose is to be a currency, Bitcoin already runs that street.

If you want innovative coins, you need to look at BTC (of course), MSC, NXT, eMunie. I think those 3 have the most promise, even if MSC and NXT are labeled as "premined"

bitcoin is the best there is no question about that

all i'm saying is the  crypto is crypto.

whats so great and innovative about these other coins and why should i care.

and this is precisely why,it just doesn't matter how much 'better' some alt claims to be, Bitcoin is and always will be the runaway winner

everyone should just sell their alts and HODL BTC!!!

lol can you imagine how much the price would go up if everyone did that  

 

[virtualfaqs]

I welcome any and all analysis. I take everything with a grain of salt. I don't like to call anyone out on bad calls. I've made my share. But some people just get on my nerves....

+1

I don't mind the calls and analysis either. It's the calls without analysis that get on my nerves. Now granted I've done the choo-choo and bear calls every now and then. But sometimes it's excessive.  

[mb300sd]

feels like a fast smooth ride



hop onboard the Bitcoin train! today

nah, bitcoin train looks more like this.



almost as nice as the new years hotel suite i paid for with bitcoin this year.

[adamstgBit]

we can break resistance and run to 900 easily

but the fact remains that we could also crash to 600-700 afterward  theres good reason to be bearish at this time.

the longer timeframes don't look as bullish

[adamstgBit]

feels like a fast smooth ride



hop onboard the Bitcoin train! today

nah, bitcoin train looks more like this.



almost as nice as the new years hotel suite i paid for with bitcoin this year.

ya i know.... i recently sold my first class ticket 

 

[ShroomsKit]

Why do people dump now? How do they think? "Well the price is going up, lets quickly dump before i make more money by putting up a sell order around 900"?

the people who are dumping now are the ones who bought coins before we took off and are taking profits (out of the pockets of those who bought coins during the rally itself).

Great. Now read my post again.

[adamstgBit]

Why do people dump now? How do they think? "Well the price is going up, lets quickly dump before i make more money by putting up a sell order around 900"?

the people who are dumping now are the ones who bought coins before we took off and are taking profits (out of the pockets of those who bought coins during the rally itself).

Great. Now read my post again.

hes right... day traders might be dumping profits right about here

but, no one is really dumping... the market appears safe, i think we can rally to 900 in a few days time.