Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ScrapOfCat]

I got a funky sensation...

[nanobrain]

Tomorrow there will be a weekend low and that will be the best time to buy. Next week will test new levels of resistance.

Brave words...I'll make a note.

Please do. I haven't been wrong about a specific call I've posted on here yet.

Oh, come now. No one takes that condescending bullshit seriously.

I recall one post specifically because it was in response to me, when price was just over $200 in October.

I would bet we don't end the year more than $20 up or down from where we are today.

Then I thought, let's have a look.

I do not see a lot of investment coming in during the holidays. Certainly not to push us up another $55-60 in the next 2 months. Especially since there are still some people who would just be happy to break even from the April crash, even more so during the holidays.

I don't think we will see ATHs until 2014.

It will be institutional investors that eventually get us to $1000+.  Mom and pop can get us to new highs, but the BTC markets need billions of new capital investments into its coffers to get to 4 digits and beyond.

[...]

I still think this is probably at least over a year away.

I would not expect us to break above 266 before mid December or into the new year. If we do, we are probably headed for another sizeable dip.

There really is no resistance for a loooong time after $1000. $1500 maybe, but $2000 really is the next resistance after that. And 10000 cyn which is about $1630. Have some serious resistance there.

So all of you hoping for $400-$500 coins better prey some big hands come in and bust resistance downward. Otherwise, $600 is probably the best you will see in this rally.

3 days before the move to capitulation:

After studying these markets daily, I believe I have a pretty good pulse on where things are going. Here are my 2 cents currently.

There is a groundswell of buying pressure sitting off to the sidelines and its growing. Its growing for 2 reasons. First, most traders are not 100% bitcoin at the moment. Just look on this mostly bullish forum. Most of us are partly fiat right now. We have $$$ sitting on the sidelines. Second,
there is a lot of new money coming into the exchanges that are not buying right away. That is why the bid sum is increasing. People want to invest, but do not necessarily want to invest if the price is going to go lower.

So every possible mid term scenario (minus a catastrophic one, which always exists) has one final result - an strong upswing in which the money is forced to come back into the market. This will eventually cause another large rally. To where, I do not know. But it is coming.

I think there are 3 near/mid term scenarios. I will list them most unlikely to most likely.

A.  Incredibly bullish news spurns the market upward suddenly forcing the money on the sidelines back in causing a new huge rally.  

B. The market consolidates where it is (around $900) for 1-4/5 weeks. This would be the most bullish scenario and would be similar to the consolidation around $120-$130 a few months ago.

C. The market ebbs sideways and downward over the holidays as the holiday season wins the news cycles and people hold off on investing and sending more funds to markets.  In this scenario, we DO NOT reach another low past the $600ish already established. This would be very similar to the April rally where people expected it to test the low of $50s but it only got to $66, because everyone wanted to buy low.

I think C is most likely given the holidays. We will trend sideways to down, we will start a slow upswing sometime before $600. Somewhere from Dec. 30th to Jan. 31st that upswing will gain momentum and by sometime in February we will be in full fledge rally mode again. I also think this scenario could happen before February as well.

The best you can hope for is a sideways to downward movement lasting 2-6 weeks, but never going below $600. Thats best case scenario for you.

Just like I said, we may go lower but we are not going lower than 600 because everyone is watching there.

And the underlining mood of this market is bullish.  Eventually we are going to hit a price where the money on the sideline says this is low enough. Then after the holidays when more institutional money comes in away we will go.

Or alternately we will go up anytime because honey badger don't give a SHIT.

If you see a downtrend that gets heavy resistance before $600 you should buy.

There is way too muchl money sitting on the sidelines for the market to fall far. And when it comes back in he market will have established its floor.

Most people are looking at 600 the same way they did 50. So on a down trend I would expect the buying to start between $620-$700.

We made a higher low on 12-20 and have not revisited it. You said:

Look. I hear you. I actually agree with most of what you said. However, as much as it gets blasted TA is very effective in calling patterns. And technically speaking we have at least 1 more leg down. I might not make new lows, but still, it would be shocking if it did not happen.

What are your thoughts regarding this now:

I think we hang out in a $20-$40 range for a bit before testing the ATHs early next year, but that doesn't mean even 2014 want see some days (or hours) under 150.

It seems your views have changed. Were you right then, or right now?

We are already seeing an issue with people not wanting to invest at $200. I think the psychological challenges of the cost of a single bitcoin for a potential new investor will dampen the market to a degree. Unless we see the exchanges moving to a lower denomination than BTC, I think our growth from here on out will not be exponential. I could see us at $500-$1000 next year best case scenario. However, as the price rises, the growth curve will be dampened, no doubt.

Lol. That's pretty funny.

But this doesn't change the fact that you are still an over-analytical asshole.

You have this tendency to take 1 thing someone will post, find some literal misinterpretation and run with a counter argument, just for the sake of being a pompous prick.  

Now, I misspoke to say I hadn't made any incorrect calls. In fact, you could have quoted various of my previous posts where I have mentioned "not having a clue" or "maybe wrong" or "I missed the fact that..." or some other caveat where I recognize that we all, including myself have limitations.  Of course you left any posts like this out because you wanted to paint a picture of me as a complete imbecile.

The truth is I sometimes cut corners with what I post or don't qualify my statements in "context" simply because I take for granted that people on here won't take things as black or white, but perhaps with some grey or because I am posting from my phone or don't have the time and energy to clarify ever little detail. Although, while you posted several quotes most of them came down to me missing on either the fact that the rally at $250 would go to $1240 or missing the capitulation going below $600 - in essence missing the news from China, although I posted a poll about that very thing 10 days before it happened. There were a few other misses and some you didn't post (would you like me to add them for you?) but most of these quotes are about the same topics.

Now it probably took you a good hour to go back through all my posts. And of course you didn't list any of my correct predictions, because you had a bone to pick. So, should I now go back and do the same to you? Heavens no, what a collossal waste of time and energy.

But hopefully you had a laugh and feel better about yourself now.

I can take it as good as I give it. So again, well done.

All I ask is just try not to be such an analytical prick.

I don't want to labour a point here but you did say,
I haven't been wrong about a specific call I've posted on here yet.
only clearly you have been wrong numerous times. Now you are saying
And of course you didn't list any of my correct predictions.
So, we've moved from black and white to 'shades of grey'.

So, your counter-argument is pretty weak and resorting to ad-hom attacks doesn't strengthen it.  If I had collated those posts they would have been just as valid at pricking your pomposity, but would I have been 'over-analytical'?

You can huff and puff about details and cutting corners but surely it would be better to just post your opinion to the interweb with a bit more humility and a bit less of the "obviously I am right" attitude?

Or as you would say "Discuss!"

[dani]

Tomorrow there will be a weekend low and that will be the best time to buy. Next week will test new levels of resistance.

Brave words...I'll make a note.

Please do. I haven't been wrong about a specific call I've posted on here yet.

Oh, come now. No one takes that condescending bullshit seriously.

I recall one post specifically because it was in response to me, when price was just over $200 in October.

I would bet we don't end the year more than $20 up or down from where we are today.

Then I thought, let's have a look.

I do not see a lot of investment coming in during the holidays. Certainly not to push us up another $55-60 in the next 2 months. Especially since there are still some people who would just be happy to break even from the April crash, even more so during the holidays.

I don't think we will see ATHs until 2014.

It will be institutional investors that eventually get us to $1000+.  Mom and pop can get us to new highs, but the BTC markets need billions of new capital investments into its coffers to get to 4 digits and beyond.

[...]

I still think this is probably at least over a year away.

I would not expect us to break above 266 before mid December or into the new year. If we do, we are probably headed for another sizeable dip.

There really is no resistance for a loooong time after $1000. $1500 maybe, but $2000 really is the next resistance after that. And 10000 cyn which is about $1630. Have some serious resistance there.

So all of you hoping for $400-$500 coins better prey some big hands come in and bust resistance downward. Otherwise, $600 is probably the best you will see in this rally.

3 days before the move to capitulation:

After studying these markets daily, I believe I have a pretty good pulse on where things are going. Here are my 2 cents currently.

There is a groundswell of buying pressure sitting off to the sidelines and its growing. Its growing for 2 reasons. First, most traders are not 100% bitcoin at the moment. Just look on this mostly bullish forum. Most of us are partly fiat right now. We have $$$ sitting on the sidelines. Second,
there is a lot of new money coming into the exchanges that are not buying right away. That is why the bid sum is increasing. People want to invest, but do not necessarily want to invest if the price is going to go lower.

So every possible mid term scenario (minus a catastrophic one, which always exists) has one final result - an strong upswing in which the money is forced to come back into the market. This will eventually cause another large rally. To where, I do not know. But it is coming.

I think there are 3 near/mid term scenarios. I will list them most unlikely to most likely.

A.  Incredibly bullish news spurns the market upward suddenly forcing the money on the sidelines back in causing a new huge rally.  

B. The market consolidates where it is (around $900) for 1-4/5 weeks. This would be the most bullish scenario and would be similar to the consolidation around $120-$130 a few months ago.

C. The market ebbs sideways and downward over the holidays as the holiday season wins the news cycles and people hold off on investing and sending more funds to markets.  In this scenario, we DO NOT reach another low past the $600ish already established. This would be very similar to the April rally where people expected it to test the low of $50s but it only got to $66, because everyone wanted to buy low.

I think C is most likely given the holidays. We will trend sideways to down, we will start a slow upswing sometime before $600. Somewhere from Dec. 30th to Jan. 31st that upswing will gain momentum and by sometime in February we will be in full fledge rally mode again. I also think this scenario could happen before February as well.

The best you can hope for is a sideways to downward movement lasting 2-6 weeks, but never going below $600. Thats best case scenario for you.

Just like I said, we may go lower but we are not going lower than 600 because everyone is watching there.

And the underlining mood of this market is bullish.  Eventually we are going to hit a price where the money on the sideline says this is low enough. Then after the holidays when more institutional money comes in away we will go.

Or alternately we will go up anytime because honey badger don't give a SHIT.

If you see a downtrend that gets heavy resistance before $600 you should buy.

There is way too muchl money sitting on the sidelines for the market to fall far. And when it comes back in he market will have established its floor.

Most people are looking at 600 the same way they did 50. So on a down trend I would expect the buying to start between $620-$700.

We made a higher low on 12-20 and have not revisited it. You said:

Look. I hear you. I actually agree with most of what you said. However, as much as it gets blasted TA is very effective in calling patterns. And technically speaking we have at least 1 more leg down. I might not make new lows, but still, it would be shocking if it did not happen.

What are your thoughts regarding this now:

I think we hang out in a $20-$40 range for a bit before testing the ATHs early next year, but that doesn't mean even 2014 want see some days (or hours) under 150.

It seems your views have changed. Were you right then, or right now?

We are already seeing an issue with people not wanting to invest at $200. I think the psychological challenges of the cost of a single bitcoin for a potential new investor will dampen the market to a degree. Unless we see the exchanges moving to a lower denomination than BTC, I think our growth from here on out will not be exponential. I could see us at $500-$1000 next year best case scenario. However, as the price rises, the growth curve will be dampened, no doubt.

Lol. That's pretty funny.

But this doesn't change the fact that you are still an over-analytical asshole.

You have this tendency to take 1 thing someone will post, find some literal misinterpretation and run with a counter argument, just for the sake of being a pompous prick.  

Now, I misspoke to say I hadn't made any incorrect calls. In fact, you could have quoted various of my previous posts where I have mentioned "not having a clue" or "maybe wrong" or "I missed the fact that..." or some other caveat where I recognize that we all, including myself have limitations.  Of course you left any posts like this out because you wanted to paint a picture of me as a complete imbecile.

The truth is I sometimes cut corners with what I post or don't qualify my statements in "context" simply because I take for granted that people on here won't take things as black or white, but perhaps with some grey or because I am posting from my phone or don't have the time and energy to clarify ever little detail. Although, while you posted several quotes most of them came down to me missing on either the fact that the rally at $250 would go to $1240 or missing the capitulation going below $600 - in essence missing the news from China, although I posted a poll about that very thing 10 days before it happened. There were a few other misses and some you didn't post (would you like me to add them for you?) but most of these quotes are about the same topics.

Now it probably took you a good hour to go back through all my posts. And of course you didn't list any of my correct predictions, because you had a bone to pick. So, should I now go back and do the same to you? Heavens no, what a collossal waste of time and energy.

But hopefully you had a laugh and feel better about yourself now.

I can take it as good as I give it. So again, well done.

All I ask is just try not to be such an analytical prick.

thanks, never been that easy to hit the ignore button. Didnt bother to read windjc answer more than this:

But this doesn't change the fact that you are still an over-analytical asshole.

keep it up  

[spooderman]

winjc has acquired many ignorers from this back and forth. I didn't realise you were the "discuss" guy too! Wow many ignore.

[granathus]

Wow, people are getting trigger happy with their ignores right now. Wonder if that is bullish? Someone make a chart pls.

[spooderman]

Wow, people are getting trigger happy with their ignores right now. Wonder if that is bullish? Someone make a chart pls.

tbh I think we're over ignored right now. I expect ignores to roll back to about 75% of what they are right now.

[T.Stuart]

Wow, people are getting trigger happy with their ignores right now. Wonder if that is bullish? Someone make a chart pls.

tbh I think we're over ignored right now. I expect ignores to roll back to about 75% of what they are right now.

Imminent crash: whale to un-ignore 10,000 people at any moment! Be prepared for things to go crazy! 

[pietje]

all those nsfw pics are pretty annoying tbh.
Sometimes it looks like i can only read this thread at home, you cant Always use a double bottem..

[granathus]

Wow, people are getting trigger happy with their ignores right now. Wonder if that is bullish? Someone make a chart pls.

tbh I think we're over ignored right now. I expect ignores to roll back to about 75% of what they are right now.

lol!  

[Davyd05]

I just love seeing the 20 or so btc buys roll buy like clockwork... I can't decide if its a couple bigger stacks averaging in, or just people who have been waiting to buy getting in to the game.

[spooderman]

Wow, people are getting trigger happy with their ignores right now. Wonder if that is bullish? Someone make a chart pls.

tbh I think we're over ignored right now. I expect ignores to roll back to about 75% of what they are right now.

Imminent crash: whale to un-ignore 10,000 people at any moment! Be prepared for things to go crazy! 

lol. bear.

[dani]

I just love seeing the 20 or so btc buys roll buy like clockwork... I can't decide if its a couple bigger stacks averaging in, or just people who have been waiting to buy getting in to the game.

If you're a whale, or kinda, wouldnt it make sense to dump your fiat slowly and steady? You would get "cheap" coins and pushing the market upwards. Of course, panic buying btc would be cheaper in the long term, but this won't push the price, it would make bitcoin look volatile like a bitch - even more (okay okay, it looked good the past weeks). Just wondering

[windjc]

winjc has acquired many ignorers from this back and forth. I didn't realise you were the "discuss" guy too! Wow many ignore.

This is generally the problem on this board now which has gone downhill so fast these last few weeks - people don't read or remember too well. I am not the discuss guy. And why would that matter anyway? That guy had great calls. Of course if you were paying attention to people's calls and not just others were saying about people you'd know that. So please ignore me but you might want to actually read the people you don't ignore a little more closely.

[Davyd05]

I just love seeing the 20 or so btc buys roll buy like clockwork... I can't decide if its a couple bigger stacks averaging in, or just people who have been waiting to buy getting in to the game.

If you're a whale, or kinda, wouldnt it make sense to dump your fiat slowly and steady? You would get "cheap" coins and pushing the market upwards. Of course, panic buying btc would be cheaper in the long term, but this won't push the price, it would make bitcoin look volatile like a bitch - even more (okay okay, it looked good the past weeks). Just wondering

As I believe I've understood from it being discussed.. essentially if whale A puts up xxxx coins at 800 and whale B with fiat can snatch em up and life goes on relatively undisturbed

I suppose we see the price move quickest when the walls are up for manipulation and get pulled before being completely eaten or as the price moves down towards them, also they can induce panic sells due to the volume.

Edit assuming the buys stay constant at 5-15 time range I took 10 minutes as a mean, and it ranges from 15-20 coins so 17.5 coins a buy, means 2520 coins are being bought over a 24 hr period. I'd love to believe that's a hedge fund buying up a stash lol

[dani]

I just love seeing the 20 or so btc buys roll buy like clockwork... I can't decide if its a couple bigger stacks averaging in, or just people who have been waiting to buy getting in to the game.

If you're a whale, or kinda, wouldnt it make sense to dump your fiat slowly and steady? You would get "cheap" coins and pushing the market upwards. Of course, panic buying btc would be cheaper in the long term, but this won't push the price, it would make bitcoin look volatile like a bitch - even more (okay okay, it looked good the past weeks). Just wondering

As I believe I've understood from it being discussed.. essentially if whale A puts up xxxx coins at 800 and whale B with fiat can snatch em up and life goes on relatively undisturbed

I suppose we see the price move quickest when the walls are up for manipulation and get pulled before being completely eaten or as the price moves down towards them, also they can induce panic sells due to the volume.

Edit assuming the buys stay constant at 5-15 time range I took 10 minutes as a mean, and it ranges from 15-20 coins so 17.5 coins a buy, means 2520 coins are being bought over a 24 hr period. I'd love to believe that's a hedge fund buying up a stash lol

that's why I asked,I would love to see this as well. Not sure if chances are good for that though.. but if not today, surely tomorrow 

[ChartBuddy]

[hyphymikey]

because you want more of the amazing thing you just described

edit: so bitcoin was hands down the best investment of 2013, thinking weed will be the best investment of 2014 http://rt.com/usa/marijuana-stock-soars-colorado-million-162/

one can invent in weed?? lol thats so cool!

I've been ready almost a year now.

[ChartBuddy]

[pietje]

anyone seen this news already? Its looking very promising.

http://www.coindesk.com/games-giant-zynga-playing-bitcoin/

[Lewis2]

Great news! (but there is a separate thread for news)