Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

Leah Wald and Thor (left)

OMg I'm in love!

 I feel you!  I love Rhodesian ridgebacks too!!

[El duderino_]

Quiet in here this saturday..... btc boring=WO boring
More swings UP or DOWN brings much more activity down here ( actualy thats totaly normal) when there’s nothing going on in the world of BTC ( no action) than its Maybe beter to do Some other stuff 
Mmmm early saturday had a good drink followed by a bottle of wine and good food ,a good fight night so a early saturday for me , yeah something different little bit of serie watching and we can call iT a night
Maybe bit of more boring BTC Tomorrow? Or Maybe Some action  let see and just kee on hodling 

(Low volatility) * (Low Blood alcohol) == Boring WO thread.

Tomorrow will be better!

Better be otherwise a boring Sunday ahead....

[El duderino_]

Whatever is happening ..., after a few days Maybe weeks to see V8 is back must be bullish of Some kind..... 

[Last of the V8s]

Whatever is happening ..., after a few days Maybe weeks to see V8 is back must be bullish of Some kind..... 

[goldkingcoiner]

I don't recall seeing anyone post or discuss this 1broker.com seizure issue that happened about two days ago.

https://bitcoinist.com/1broker-com-domain-seized-by-the-fbi/

Dull twit.

Speaking of Dull twit, I am coming to a tentative vision about some possible upcoming BTC price waves that could suggest that our BTC bottom is already "in"

So perhaps, at some point we are going to get price trickling up, and then a shooting up of the price that takes us above $10k, but just short of micgoosen's intermediary play game.. so just shy of $12k.. so that UP would take less than a month to play out, and then prices correct down to nearly $7k, and then get stuck in a $7,600 to $9k range for several months.... maybe 6 months-ish...  before resuming progress towards the previous ATH... but then again getting stuck along the way, perhaps in the $14-$17k range for at least 6 months....

Therefore, we might not be breaking previous ATHs again for about a year and a half.. maybe that is too lackluster of a scenario given potential drama that could involve playing around with the halvening and an ETF that could cause additional UP drama?  though I am thinking that we still have not experienced our true and complete blow-off top that would have been started by the December 2017 rise to $19,666... so there is that, too.

I know that a lot of us are thinking that alt coins are dead, but seems that whether we like it or NOT, they are coming with us for at least one more rally that will confuse a lot of normies about which coin to invest in... but those of us already who have been around the block understand that bitcoin is the solid one... especially if we are considering both upside and downside risks.

I doubt we will get stuck in the 14-17k range. Once we reach 12k, the amount of fomo will be ridiculous. We will speed past the ATH and reach a new level. I would not be surprised to see 30k at the end of year.

FOMO wont be the same because a lot of people are going to be scared of another crash, also a lot of people will take profits along the way this time (at least more people than last time). We will never achieve the same amount of FOMO unless we break 20k convincingly.

Actually, these are competing viewpoints described by each of you, goldkingcoiner and Astargath.  Part of the reason why I hestitate to attempt to describe what is probable to happen beyond one leg at a time, because subsequent legs are more difficult to describe both because they depend upon what had caused the earlier leg, if anything beyond pure momentum, and how fast the earlier leg passes through its progression, including degree and duration of built-in corrections.

At this point, I am more inclined towards Astargath's scenario, mostly because it is more conservative, and it is really difficult to get a straight upwards without some profit taking along the way, especially given the fact that our current correction has been largely bouncing between $6k and $10k (of course, we were above $10k for a few weeks, too), however, Astargath's describing panic selling and all that boloney about people must feel compelled to take profits, can be overwhelmed by situations in which the UPWARDs sentiment is overwhelming, and even the fact that some pretty BIG whales can negate the impact of a bunch of regular folk weak hands selling because of their valuing their wealth in dollars, failure to understand bitcoin and lacking confidence in bitcoin.

So, yeah, as soon as I hit "post" for my earlier submission, I was having reservations about my own described scenario that I was considering to be amongst the most probable for a bull-type scenario because there remain many subsequently unknown events or news to change the probabilities and to cause the timeline to move much faster than my earlier momentum anticipations, and in that regard, we should continue to keep in mind that this whole bitcoin market (and even including all altcoins) still includes involvement of quite a bit less than 1% of the world-wide population, so there are an enormous number of decently wealthy folks (or complementary entities in which a small number of individuals control (even sometimes a bit covertly) such as governments, financial institutions, or investment groups) who could move the whole bitcoin market (and perhaps even several alts along the way) all by themselves, if they were to choose.  We cannot rely on some of those kinds of single entity or small group of entities (or signaling from these groups) pumps like that happening, even though those kinds of pumps remains reasonably possible, especially considering the relatively low level of liquidity that can move the price in one direction and then cause momentum that kind of builds upon itself in a way that becomes beyond the control of any of them to stop, until it runs its reasonable (and by definition kind of unreasonable) course.

I really get what you are saying, and these are very good points! But, however, this time around we have something we did not have during the last rise to the top. CONFIDENCE. Everyone knows Bitcoin is not going anywhere. Bitcoin now has the attention of a lot of people. The bear run is finally over and confidence will keep building. Even big names like John McAfee, Trace Mayer, Tim Draper, Tyler Winklevoss, Bobby Lee and etc are the leaders of building confidence. Any threats of death of bitcoin via regulations have started dissipating. People KNOW Bitcoin is going up and are only waiting for the sound of the starting pistol. Once It does start going up, nobody will want to be left out. I will stick to my prediction of huge fomo around 12k.

[infofront]

Here's a recent interview with an interesting character: https://breakermag.com/john-mcafee-is-73-very-stoned-and-running-for-president/

[Bitcoinaire]

DOOM

LT view: BTC over the past 6mo is like a domino cascade in slow motion: The upward bullish swings are getting flatter. The downward bearish swings are getting steeper. Buyers’ energy is exhausted. Bears are in control/ High probability we test the yearly lows in Oct, and fall.




https://twitter.com/MustStopMurad/status/1046052833479585792

[xhomerx10]

Here's a recent interview with a interesting character: https://breakermag.com/john-mcafee-is-73-very-stoned-and-running-for-president/

 Stoned people are always entertaining.

[HairyMaclairy]

High probability we test the yearly lows in Oct, and fall.

October is traditionally a rally month. 

[JayJuanGee]

DOOM

LT view: BTC over the past 6mo is like a domino cascade in slow motion: The upward bullish swings are getting flatter. The downward bearish swings are getting steeper. Buyers’ energy is exhausted. Bears are in control/ High probability we test the yearly lows in Oct, and fall.



https://twitter.com/MustStopMurad/status/1046052833479585792

Your description of comes off as a bit wishful rather than based on reality.  I see about 8 months (starting from early February) of lows that are more or less in the $5,774 to $6,200 range, and surely some of the BTC price spikes up are not getting higher, but instead seem to be trending downwards during the past 9 months, but I doubt that those facts on their own reasonably create evidence to support your conclusion that "bears are in control."  

What seems to be in control is a kind of ongoing BTC price consolidation period, and attempt to figure out whether there is going to be more resistance for the BTC price to go down to attempt to break support or to go up.. and whether BTC price support will go up with the price, if the BTC price begins to make any meaningful break into the upwards direction. 

TLDR:  Far from settled about what is going to happen during what seems to be about an 8 month long ongoing BTC price consolidation period, but NO real meaningful evidence to support a seemingly wishful conclusion, such as yours, that "bears are in control."

[HairyMaclairy]

This is my best match against a 2014 scenario.



https://www.tradingview.com/i/YSYQZwmF/

[d_eddie]

Here's a recent interview with a interesting character: https://breakermag.com/john-mcafee-is-73-very-stoned-and-running-for-president/

I'd love to see him debate the Donald, or the FBI. I really hope he runs for president. Of course he doesn't stand a chance - and he's smart enough to say it aloud and repeatedly, but can you imagine the fun?

[drays]

You just reminded me of terabear. What happened to him/her and all of our beartrolls?

Terabera was a she, but in the latest months of her activity, she was trying to act as if she was a he, for some strange reason.  Some peeps here had suggested that her account got bought out, but I don't buy that theory because it seems that her personality and posting style was otherwise the same, except that she began to act as if she were a he instead of a she.

Regarding her disappearance I have two speculations, and I will list them in order of which one I believe to be more compelling.

1) Terabera had a very similar disappearance during the 2015 bear market, and perhaps in that sense, her pay period was done, if you believe that she was a kind of paid shill, or she concluded that she could not be as profitable as a trader when the market devolved into a certain low level of volatility, if you actually believe that she was a trader.

2) in the latest months of her activity, she disclosed that she was experiencing health issues, something like lime disease, so perhaps her health is continuing to suffer and participating in the forum exacerbates her condition.  I don't really believe this second possible explanation is very convincing because any kind of sickness would allow for more internet participation because it would force sedateness, but if a person is forced to earn an income too, then a sickness might cause a person to have to focus more on money earning activities and to remove forum participation based on its distractive nature.

Tera admittedly had an INTJ personality, which means she would express neither definite female, nor definite male behavior. Well, closer to male, regardless of actual sex. INTJs are analysts with contrarian approach to everything.

I didn't read all of her older posts, but what I have seen during last half-a-hear, was not subjectively bullish or bearish - just an objective analysis based on reality, without any bias.

I really miss her here, as she was one of the most interesting posters (to me at least), with fresh and independent approach to things. Without a contrarian its too easy for a group/thread to be deluded.
If she reads this (which I strongly doubt) I would ask to come back (if that doesn't make her health issues worse, of course).

[HairyMaclairy]

Musk to remain as CEO, steps down as Chairman

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/business/tesla-musk-sec-settlement.html

[d_eddie]

Tera admittedly had an INTJ personality, which means she would have neither definite female, nor definite male behavior. Well, closer to male, regardless of actual sex. INTJs are analysts with contrarian approach to everything.

I didn't read all of her older posts, but what I have seen during last half-a-hear, was not really bullish or bearish - just an objective analysis based on reality, without any bias.

I really miss her here, as she was one of the most interesting posters (to me at least), with fresh and independent approach to things. Without a contrarian its too easy for a group/thread to be deluded.
If she reads this (which I strongly doubt) I would ask to come back (if that doesn't make her health issues worse, of course).

+1

[Hueristic]

Leah Wald and Thor (left)

OMg I'm in love!

 I feel you!  I love Rhodesian ridgebacks too!!

Gorgeous Breed and he's go impeccable taste in owners!

How did I know I was going to get this reply.  +1 WO for u

Here's a recent interview with a interesting character: https://breakermag.com/john-mcafee-is-73-very-stoned-and-running-for-president/

He's a fucking lunatic, I like that in a person.

But I wouldn't want him in the white house. But I would vote for him over Trump.

Stoned people are always entertaining.

It doesn't matter if he's stoned or not, he is just like that from everything I have seen and I was in the industry almost as long and have followed his reality show since it started in the early 90's.

I'd love to see him debate the Donald, or the FBI. I really hope he runs for president. Of course he doesn't stand a chance - and he's smart enough to say it aloud and repeatedly, but can you imagine the fun?

The entertainment value would be EPIC. And he would murder trump.

[jbreher]

Segwit and nonsegwit are all "on the blockchain."  I don't know how anyone who has been in bitcoin for a while would conclude that segwit is NOT on the blockchain?  I do believe that segwit has allowed the transactions per second to jump up dramatically and if you hit refresh on that page you will see the transactions per second jumping around between 10tsp and over 300tsp...   It seems that before segwit, there were proclamations that the bitcoin blockchain could only process a maximum of 7tps.

Yeah... about that....

Segwit or no segwit, BTC is utterly incapable of averaging 300 tps. By a couple orders of magnitude. Block weight will not allow it.

People testing the lightning network are seeing 400TPS easily between two nodes.  

Segwit let that happen.

Note the "on the blockchain" in the quote that advances the mistaken notion -- which I corrected -- that ...

Oh fuck it. If you're determined to be a loon, go ahead. Knock yourself out.

[jbreher]

From now on, only bitcoin for me.

Your transitioning over to bitcoin ...

Username almost checks out. I suggest perhaps 'bitmoverovertoer'

[sirazimuth]

[jbreher]

I don't recall seeing anyone post or discuss this 1broker.com seizure issue that happened about two days ago.

https://bitcoinist.com/1broker-com-domain-seized-by-the-fbi/

I don't recall such discussion either.

Then again, I don't get the relevance of J. Rando biz getting raided upon Bitcoin WO or price discussion.