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Question: Probability that we've seen the bottom of this bear market:
0% - 5 (3.5%)
1-5% - 4 (2.8%)
6-10% - 1 (0.7%)
11-15% - 1 (0.7%)
16-20% - 3 (2.1%)
21-25% - 2 (1.4%)
26-30% - 2 (1.4%)
31-35% - 1 (0.7%)
36-40% - 5 (3.5%)
41-45% - 2 (1.4%)
46-50% - 7 (4.9%)
51-55% - 9 (6.3%)
56-60% - 2 (1.4%)
61-65% - 3 (2.1%)
66-70% - 9 (6.3%)
71-75% - 9 (6.3%)
76-80% - 10 (7%)
81-85% - 13 (9.1%)
86-90% - 10 (7%)
91-95% - 7 (4.9%)
96-99% - 10 (7%)
100% - 28 (19.6%)
Total Voters: 143

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21127839 times)
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HairyMaclairy
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October 03, 2018, 09:15:34 AM

Do people like these sentiment updates or are they dumb?


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vroom
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October 03, 2018, 09:29:29 AM

Do people like these sentiment updates or are they dumb?


I like these sentiment updates, we need these rare on-topic posts Smiley
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October 03, 2018, 09:31:39 AM

Its all little bits of information that goes together to make the bigger picture.

Its all just speculation after all,
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October 03, 2018, 09:32:39 AM

they certainly wouldn't appreciate you getting your dong out in a European restaurant.  Cheesy

You beat me to it.   I am not sure it works too far way from our little part of the world, but you brightened my day.

mmmm the high class and standard of european resto's ..... even the cheap resto's in europe are already supreme @many places

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October 03, 2018, 09:34:43 AM

Do people like these sentiment updates or are they dumb?



we do like them just like bob's REKT updates , and where just waiting when fear turns into that green zone .... keep posting them from time to time  Wink
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October 03, 2018, 09:38:44 AM

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October 03, 2018, 09:41:43 AM

Do people like these sentiment updates or are they dumb?

pointless and much too big. pl try to match text size to forum text size
your charts are great for size though. bigger the better for those
micgoossens
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October 03, 2018, 09:42:24 AM

There is almost no scenario in which the price would go straight up, for example to a new ATH within a day or even within a week.  I'm not even sure whether an ETF approval would cause that, or some kind of news that some country has made bitcoin it's official currency.  Perhaps, but I have real doubts about such sudden exponential movement without any correction.

On the other hand, it is not likely, but we could get 100% or 200% within a week.. or we could get a kind of gradual UP and then, BAM, a sudden 100% to 200% UP within a week.  Is that what you mean by one of these days, moon?

Is moon past the previous ATH or is it some other number?

Where is "moon" exactly?


if ((amount of btc * btc price) > target net worth) then MOON

O.k.  Fair enough that moon is a number that would be somewhat individually tailored  - and sometimes, members might need to disclose where that point is for themselves, and sometimes just thinking about "where is moon" can be a psychological well-being point.

Part of the reason that I frequently express so much content, even though we are still bouncing around in a 66.6666% correction arena, is that I had considered $3k to $5k to have been the top of the 2017-2018-ish bubble - meaning the next bubble that was coming after the 2013 ATH of $1,163.  Accordingly, thereafter I had expected the top to have been in the $3-$5k range and then a correction into the $1k to $3k range.  Therefore, it seems to me that there is still a lot of icing on this particular cake, and it kind of already seems, to me, that a variation of moon has already arrived.

All of what I am saying does not mean that I am bearish or that there is froth  in this market, but a peak that goes to $19,666 remains in the approximately 5x area higher than expected and the correction back to $6k-ish remains in an area of about 5x higher than expected - and even with all of that 5x higher than expected, there seems to be plenty of upside potential, still.... because bitcoin continues to be in a very low adoption level - even with a lot of peeps coming into bitcoin, the numbers still remain trickles in comparison to the world population and in comparison to what is possible based on the ongoing good news in bitcoin, in terms of developments and the seeming solidity of the tech (and computing power for that matter - including bitcoin's continued winning of various infighting).

Sure there remains a question about whether alts are coming with on the next journey up, and so that could be the $1,000,000 question about how long any kind of continued correction goes on further or just drags out longer.... let's see, let's see... So even if we are at a kind of moon..., "When next moon?" might be more poignant of a question, perhaps?

As much as I want it to be different, a new moon will take a lot of time to materialise. The grind up to 20k will be long and hard, with tons of resistance levels established by previous run-up. Once we pass 20k, price discovery starts again and we are in uncharted waters.
Right JJG, I share your sentiment about btc adoption and also did not expect previous top to be this much of an overshoot. I'd caution everyone to be rather conservative in setting any sort of timeline for a next run, my experience has learned me this is always further away than one expects, especially after such a massive year for crypto that we had.
Still BTC and perhaps some other alts are terrific buys at this level from a long term perspective thats why I am hodling and accumulating, just as all you smart and fine gents in this thread  Smiley
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October 03, 2018, 09:47:50 AM

As much as I want it to be different, a new moon will take a lot of time to materialise. The grind up to 20k will be long and hard, with tons of resistance levels established by previous run-up. Once we pass 20k, price discovery starts again and we are in uncharted waters.
Right JJG, I share your sentiment about btc adoption and also did not expect previous top to be this much of an overshoot. I'd caution everyone to be rather conservative in setting any sort of timeline for a next run, my experience has learned me this is always further away than one expects, especially after such a massive year for crypto that we had.
Still BTC and perhaps some other alts are terrific buys at this level from a long term perspective thats why I am hodling and accumulating, just as all you smart and fine gents in this thread  Smiley
wtaf, mic, you learned to english? or is it someone else?
anyway my experience has learned me my experience has taught me
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October 03, 2018, 09:48:58 AM
Last edit: October 03, 2018, 09:59:32 AM by micgoossens

^
with jjg i try my best with english....  Roll Eyes
but learning and learning BETTER AND BETTER Grin

THATS what BTC is given me , a better currency, english lessons, computer skills, security skills etc.... haha

( sometimes when i'm @ a friends place and making a post he correct my writing.... ,getting lessons from everybody these days) micgooss is @ learning stages

my GF also always complaining with my english writing, so pffff gotta do my best and improve on that.

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October 03, 2018, 09:59:34 AM
Last edit: October 03, 2018, 10:11:04 AM by Last of the V8s
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

^
with jjg i try my best with english....  Roll Eyes
but learning and learning BETTER AND BETTER Grin

THATS what BTC is given me , a better currency, english lessons, computer skills, security skills etc.... haha

( sometimes when i'm @ a friends place and making a post he correct my writing.... ,getting lessons from everybody these days) micgooss is @ learning stages

my GF also always complaining with my english writing, so pffff gotta do my best and improve on that.


also you've acquired subtle pastiche skills of his waffly meaningless drivel
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October 03, 2018, 10:11:44 AM
Merited by jbreher (1)

his boluses of bathetic boojum
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October 03, 2018, 10:14:40 AM



Still, (I think) Bitcoin was not meant as a way to evade tax or capital controls but to be your own bank by having direct control of your money.


BTC might initially have had those former uses, but is steadily moving away from its experimental past, and that is a very big positive.

Regulations treating BTC as a mainstream asset, including AML and institutional KYC, are already essential at the fiat interface, but the treatment of transfers in crypto alone are a different question.

On one level, regulations about crypto transfers are defacto recognising it offically as money. That may not be a route that monetary authorities want to go down at present.

In most juristictions, all valuable assets are required to be registered in some way,and that usually is a positve in terms of ownership law and security. If BTC is outside that system it will always have a deficiency in terms of adoption and mainstream recognition.

I would envisage BTC and some other cryptos eventually coming within all of that, with most others remaining in the grey zone ,with the concomitant freedoms and also drawbacks of that status.




Surely the primary facet of cryptos (and the one for which BTC was born) is to provide a parallel monetary store and exchange system, as a refuge from the eventual insolvency of the current fiat regime ?


Over the long term, the free market should decide whether that is a worthy, recognised or necessary function.
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October 03, 2018, 10:22:00 AM

^ https://twitter.com/SharkCIANews/status/1047408415537070081 Monday's overreach by Giancarlo and the so-called legal system of the Great Again
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October 03, 2018, 10:23:41 AM


The more money that floods into high-risk corporate debt, the deeper pain will be when a shock comes. Today...

- For 1st time, >40% of value of US corp bonds are rated BBB.
- Avg spread on junk bonds is down to 3.15%, close to the narrowest since 2007

`

https://latest.13d.com/who-bogeyman-zombies-out-there-corporate-debt-market-complacent-6853d75e0509
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October 03, 2018, 10:33:20 AM

pointless and much too big. pl try to match text size to forum text size
your charts are great for size though. bigger the better for those

I post from mobile so a pain to resize.  May just post substantive moves rather than jiggery pokery.
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October 03, 2018, 10:41:31 AM
Merited by BobLawblaw (2), JayJuanGee (1)



Still, (I think) Bitcoin was not meant as a way to evade tax or capital controls but to be your own bank by having direct control of your money.


BTC might initially have had those former uses, but is steadily moving away from its experimental past, and that is a very big positive.

Regulations treating BTC as a mainstream asset, including AML and institutional KYC, are already essential at the fiat interface, but the treatment of transfers in crypto alone are a different question.

On one level, regulations about crypto transfers are defacto recognising it offically as money. That may not be a route that monetary authorities want to go down at present.

In most juristictions, all valuable assets are required to be registered in some way,and that usually is a positve in terms of ownership law and security. If BTC is outside that system it will always have a deficiency in terms of adoption and mainstream recognition.

I would envisage BTC and some other cryptos eventually coming within all of that, with most others remaining in the grey zone ,with the concomitant freedoms and also drawbacks of that status.




Surely the primary facet of cryptos (and the one for which BTC was born) is to provide a parallel monetary store and exchange system, as a refuge from the eventual insolvency of the current fiat regime ?


Over the long term, the free market should decide whether that is a worthy, recognised or necessary function.

The ability to evade tax and capital controls is just a consequence of being the sole owner of your money. I do agree that further incorporation of crypto into society and law is a good thing as long as no laws are made that attempt to disrupt the operation of the network or that interferes with obvious technical best practices.
I like your reasoning of providing a parallel monetary store and exchange system as the present system will surely implode at some point. Hopefully BTC and Lightning will be ready by then to support a switch.
To future generations this battle of fiat against crypto will appear the same as things like the french revolution, the rise of socialism and more egalitarian rights, the seperation of church and state, rise of the internet. All important steps in human development. A global and neutral form of hard money is just like that, once adopted we won't turn back.
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October 03, 2018, 11:15:01 AM
Last edit: October 03, 2018, 11:25:40 AM by HairyMaclairy

For what it is worth, here is the current chart I use for trading.  Current strategy is to attempt to open shorts at the orange down trend line.  The price at the moment has remained too low beneath the orange trendline so currently have no trades open (short from 28 September has been closed).  Support and resistance is too tightly packed for me to gain an acceptable risk/return on longs.  However a long position from $5,900 would be appealing. 



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/xAc2kWDL-Bitcoin-USD-Downtrend-state-support-and-resistance-analysis/
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October 03, 2018, 11:58:53 AM

There are more Coinbase accounts than Bitcoins

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October 03, 2018, 12:03:12 PM

For what it is worth, here is the current chart I use for trading.

Thanks.

IMHO the action becomes weaker and weaker, clearly visible on the 4hr chart, and with momentum to the downside increasing. Not necessarily a shit show yet but the bulls seem to momentarily loose the bigger momentum.

If the leg up from $6,424 does not surpass previous short term high (about $6,550), there is more pain to come.
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