Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

hodling with my real life brothers AND WO brothers

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[bitmover]

What do people here think drives the price of BTC (either direction) the most?

1. Adoption
2. Use methods
3. Scarcity
4. Technology
5. News
6. Rumors
7. This thread
8. Whales

For a second I thought you were talking about hats the whole time lol

[figmentofmyass]

Here is my attempt at btc bottoming fundamental analysis:

Bitcoin mining difficulty peaked on 9/30/2018, then went flat, now rapidly declining.
The last time this happened on a sustained basis was during Nov 2011 bottom.

In 2011 it took four months before market bottomed and decline in difficulty stopped (in correlation with the price rebound).
Counting from 9/30, we are already two months into difficulty decline period.
If total decline period is to last only four months, we would need to turn around (price-wise) within a month (or already) to get to the rise again by the end of four months period.
One may argue that it could last longer, but nobody knows what the result of such decline would be on system functioning. Yes, difficulty would slowly adjust downwards and relieve the pressure on miners, but it takes two weeks for adjustment, which might be too slow for some.

IF, on the other hand, you would continue both price and difficulty decline until mid 2019, bitcoin might be in jeopardy by the time it turns around there.

i don't think it makes sense to focus on miners. difficulty may lag a lot, but it should eventually follow price on a long enough timeline. mining costs remaining above price means miners bleeding money---they should eventually shut down. between the last adjustment and the upcoming one, we're looking at more than a 21% difficulty drop, so we're seeing that dynamic in action.

the important thing is when price turns around. that's anyone's guess, but i tend to agree with those who (based on history) believe we're at the tail end of the post-bubble bear market. the closest model so far is 2014. that cycle topped in november 2013 and bottomed in january 2015.

[JayJuanGee]

What do people here think drives the price of BTC (either direction) the most?

1. Adoption
2. Use methods
3. Scarcity
4. Technology
5. News
6. Rumors
7. This thread
8. Whales
9. Hats

And which are the most predictable events or follow a pattern?


Edit:
Hint -- What drives the price of diamonds?

I don't know best methods to track patterns exactly, and even the categories that you provide are a bit vague.. because there seems to be a lot of nuance within each category, too....

Furthermore, sound money aspects of bitcoin and network effects are likely the best categories of consideration, and some of your above categories touch more or less on those kinds of considerations.

Nonetheless, for what it is worth, I would guestimate:

3, 2, 4, 1, 5, 8, 6, 7, 9

[El duderino_]

roach are you going with me ? 

[Last of the V8s]

Did a poll just for us



https://www.strawpoll.me/16950871

[bitserve]

The bottom is not in.

This isn’t about price, it’s about time.  We haven’t had enough time to digest the last bull market. 

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I can’t give you a price target because it’s not about price. 

That makes a lot of sense. But I think that time is just a "vehicle" to cause loss of hope, being that loss of hope the determining factor. There is still a lot of hope around so maybe this time around more time is needed to reach same levels than in the last bear market?

Donno, hope you are correct and we see a nice recovery in the second half of 2019.

[JayJuanGee]

The volume has declined under 6B$. Lets hope the price will not dip.

Are you looking at the 15 minute or 1 hour candles?  Zoom out a bit, pönde.  

Hint (as poolminor might say):  If you are attempting to figure out whether volume is going up or down, you might want to start looking at weekly candles... and some times you can then look at the smaller candles, but really assessing trade volume is going to have a lot of ups and downs on a daily level and even smaller scales that doesn't really tell you how much of a price battle is taking place in order to figure out if one side or another is getting exhausted or whether trade enthusiasm is going down...

[realr0ach]

I see the shitcoins aren't a rising
I see trouble on the way
Hodling imaginary tokens
I see bad times today

Don't try and catch the knife
It's bound to take your life
There's a shitcoin storm on the rise

[El duderino_]

Did a poll just for us



https://www.strawpoll.me/16950871

voted against all my heart BUT gotta stick with HM :/

[El duderino_]

The bottom is not in.

This isn’t about price, it’s about time.  We haven’t had enough time to digest the last bull market.  

We will hit absolute bottom between here and mid-2019.  I can’t give you a price target because it’s not about price.  

Do you still stand by your uber high price prediction of 280k per coin at the top of the next cycle?

At the peak, yes.  It’s only 14x prior ATH. 

only 14 X , nice how you say that 

[El duderino_]

HOT indeed but not burned

[Last of the V8s]

Did a poll just for us

https://www.strawpoll.me/16950871

voted against all my heart BUT gotta stick with HM :/

amen. follow the Hairy channel
we got some votes trickling in...

[El duderino_]

Did a poll just for us

https://www.strawpoll.me/16950871

voted against all my heart BUT gotta stick with HM :/

amen. follow the Hairy channel
we got some votes trickling in...

voted not but hope for yes but its just so damn close to the bottom that its just more realistic to vot NOT in cause one sharp F***ing weekend DIP on low volume could already get the job done 

[JayJuanGee]

https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitfinex/btcusd

Mind blown.  I have been using bitcoinwisdom.com for the past 5 years...  

Lol, me too.  Very useful.

What kind of witchery is this?!?!?!
Since when has been this .io site up?

bonus example: https://bitcoinwisdom.io/grids/momlp0c1zlzq9q

You got to have all the answers, don't you?

Inb4 JJG comes here accusing you of having a team of people behind you.... ... oh ... wait!

Hm?  Such accusations were only really recently applicable to Micteam -- and don't get caught up on the "team" aspect of my accusation rather than just some of the phoney baloney inconsistency aspects....

Regarding V8, surely it does seem that s/he/it does have a canny ability to hone in on timely relevant materials and even cutting jokes, but I had not really considered that to raise any red flags.. at least not so far. 

Might have to ponder over this a bit more:

[Last of the V8s]

bitserve look what you have done ^ i hope you are proud of yourself

[bitserve]

bitserve look what you have done ^ i hope you are proud of yourself

[realr0ach]

JayJuanGee and JIDF jew shill Bitunlocker posts on same page - awful.

[El duderino_]

https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitfinex/btcusd

Mind blown.  I have been using bitcoinwisdom.com for the past 5 years...  

Lol, me too.  Very useful.

What kind of witchery is this?!?!?!
Since when has been this .io site up?

bonus example: https://bitcoinwisdom.io/grids/momlp0c1zlzq9q

You got to have all the answers, don't you?

Inb4 JJG comes here accusing you of having a team of people behind you.... ... oh ... wait!

Hm?  Such accusations were only really recently applicable to Micteam -- and don't get caught up on the "team" aspect of my accusation rather than just some of the phoney baloney inconsistency aspects....

Regarding V8, surely it does seem that s/he/it does have a canny ability to hone in on timely relevant materials and even cutting jokes, but I had not really considered that to raise any red flags.. at least not so far. 

Might have to ponder over this a bit more:

a team behind?

[realr0ach]

The (((fake news))) at work again:

https://dailystormer.name/how-the-media-traffics-child-actors-and-makes-them-perform-in-conflict-zones/



Looks like (((someone))) really wants to flood your country with brown zombies to genocide the white inhabitants.